Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

The semiconductor silicon industry roadmap: Epochs driven by the dynamics between disruptive technologies and core competencies

The resource-based perspective has done much to identify idiosyncratic firm attributes that may be a principal source of competitive advantages. Unfortunately, there has been little systematic industry evidence to support the strategic importance of core competence, nor has there been much work on the temporal or cumulative nature of core capabilities within an industrial setting. Further, little or no research has been performed demonstrating how the advent of technological discontinuities or disruptive technologies plays a part in creating epochs in technology competency development and the roadmap of an industry. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary and cumulative nature of core capabilities and their interactions with technological discontinuities from a market-driven perspective. We have studied the evolution of 167 firms through the 50-year history of the semiconductor silicon industry. Over time, there were several structural shifts in the necessary competencies through the advent of disruptive technologies. In the last 30 years, however, the change in the required competencies has been more cumulative in nature. We summarize this in a roadmap detailing the epochs in the semiconductor silicon industry.     

Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context: A case study

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The study uses a propositional framework for evaluating the amount of radical change in the companies' business models with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The framework is used in a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry.The data was gathered in group-discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms of product characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

A visual scanning of potential disruptive signals for technology roadmapping: investigating keyword cluster,intensity, and relationship in futuristic data

Technology roadmapping of today’s era is necessarily based on comprehensive scanning of various signals with the disruptive potential in future paths of market, product, and technology. Previous attempts of data-driven technology roadmaps have mainly focused on data from such sources as patents and literatures. However, as these sources catalogue posteriori trends of evolution, roadmaps based on these data cannot be counted on to predict disruptions. In this regard, futuristic data in technology foresight websites may provide a better source. The objective of this research, in response, is to develop a support system for technology roadmapping that uses futuristic data. To this end, we suggest keyword-based visual scanning approach involving three keyword maps, used in succession: keyword cluster map, keyword intensity map, and keyword relationship map. Particularly, keyword intensity map is designed using weak signal theory which can help identify the visibility, diffusion, and interpretation of signals.     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

The productivity paradox and the new economy: The Spanish case

This paper studies the impact of the information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth in Spain using a dynamic general equilibrium approach. Contrary to previous works, we use a production function with six different capital inputs, three of them corresponding to ICT assets. Calibration of the model suggests that the contribution of ICT to Spanish productivity growth is very relevant, whereas the contribution of non-ICT capital has been even negative. Additionally, over the sample period 1995–2002, we find a negative TFP growth and productivity growth. These results together aim at the hypothesis that the Spanish economy could be placed within the productivity paradox.     

Determining the going market value of a business in an emerging information technology industry: The case of the cellular communications industry

Given the phenomenal growth or the anticipation of growth in certain information technology industries, concerns for economy of scale, market access and expansion, and the need for ongoing research and development are resulting in mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances. A key question in such industries is what is, or should be the going market value of a business? This paper suggests an approach to imbed market penetration models in the popular value-based planning approach suggested by Rappaport [36] to obtain the going market value of a business. The model developed in implementing the approach is tailored for the cellular communications industry. Limitations and adaptations of the approach to other industries are discussed.     

A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: bibliometrics,qualitative methodology and empirical study

Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

The development of technology foresight: A review

The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues (especially on the part of governments). This term “Technology Foresight” took off in the 1990s, as European, and then other, countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems. Large-scale exercises drew in numerous stakeholders as sources of knowledge and influence, and the prominence of these exercises led to “foresight” being used much more widely to describe futures activities of many kinds. While few new tools and techniques have been developed in these exercises, they represent an unprecedented diffusion of forecasting, planning and participatory approaches to long-term issues. Futures approaches are, in consequence, far more officially acceptable and legitimate than in the past.     

Technological change and industry structure: A case study of the petroleum industry

This paper is a case study of the impact of an exogenous improvement of a process technology on the structure of the petroleum industry. The paper examines the role of three-dimensional seismology in bringing about the 1990s oil industry consolidation. This proposition is examined in the context of evolutionary economics and in a non-cooperative game theory, concluding with a reference to Steindl's theory of industry dynamics. The significance of this contribution lies chiefly in highlighting the fact that exogenous technological change can, under appropriate conditions, play a significant role in industry dynamics. This reference to the exogenous change in technology is a departure from the traditional consideration of endogenity of industry structure in relation to technological development and, therefore, a novelty. Secondly, the documentation of 3D seismology as a significant process technology of the petroleum industry is significant.     

Modelling the faddish, fashionable and efficient diffusion of agricultural technologies: A case study of the diffusion of wool testing technology in Australia

This study investigates the nature of innovation diffusion in an agricultural context. The dominant agricultural diffusion models assume that an economically rational choice is made to adopt or reject agricultural technologies. However, recent studies of agricultural innovation highlight the ‘irrational’ and potentially ‘inefficient’ nature of the diffusion in this context. To investigate how and why agricultural technologies are adopted or rejected, we examine the diffusion of wool testing technologies in the Australian wool industry using the Bass diffusion model and Abrahamson's diffusion and rejection typology. The results show that diffusion of agricultural innovation is not simply an efficient choice made to close observable performance gaps. The findings suggest that the adoption of inefficient innovations and the rejection of efficient innovations can be driven by an adopter's social context, powerful external influences and imitation within an adopter group and that these drivers change over time, suggesting an evolutionary social process underlies the diffusion of agricultural technologies.     

Technological change under residual risk regulation: The case of coke ovens in the U.S. steel industry

An engineering-economic model is used within a dynamic setting to determine the least cost mix of investment and import activities as the U.S. steel industry faces successively tighter controls on coke oven emissions over the next 10 years. In response to Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards proposed for 1995, U.S. steel producers would likely export their toxic pollution by importing 6 million tons of coke per year. About 4 million tons of coke oven capacity is retrofit and about 1 million tons of annual coke consumption is replaced by new iron technologies, such as Corex. The Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) standards proposed for 1998 roughly double the coke oven retirements estimated to occur under MACT. Coke imports also are substantial but are no higher than under MACT because the additional time allows the industry to invest in more coke-saving blast furnaces and in new less toxic coke-making technologies, such as the Jewell process. The LAER standards in conjunction with higher capital costs, however, force coke imports to more than 8 million tons per year and sharply increase imports of semi-finished steel. Such a situation could exacerbate existing disputes on international steel trade.The authors are associate professor, instructor, and graduate student, respectively. This research was performed under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines Distinguished Young Scholar Award Administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities for the Bureau of Mines. Naturally, the usual disclaimer applies.     

The emergence of technology systems: knowledge production and distribution in the case of the Emilian plastics district

The emergence of technology systems is the result of interdependentdynamics of the generation and diffusion of complementary bitsof localised technological knowledge. Technological communicationis the crucial element assessing the collective conditions underwhich technological knowledge is accumulated and diffused. Thecase study of the emerging Emilian technological system in theplastics sector shows that the synchronic and diachronic localisedinteractions among industrial dynamics, institutional R&Defforts and technological interrelatedness are the determinantsof the systematic production, accumulation and distributionof localised technological knowledge, in turn explaining theorigin and development of the technology system itself.     

The evolution of a technological system: the case of CNC machine tools in Korea

Focusing on a product, this paper reconstructs the concept of technological systems first introduced by Carlsson and Stankiewicz (1991) in this Journal. Based on the model, we analyze the evolution process and performance of Korea's technological system for computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools as a catching-up case. The study shows that the length of 'learning period' for the system was substantial, even in a catching-up case. Especially, in the Korean case, the government played a 'macro-entrepreneurial' role in the molding of the technological system by giving legitimacy to the system, by mobilizing a nation-specific industrial organization of Chaebol system, and by enhancing the academia-industry-research institution links.JEL Classification: L52, L61, O30We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful comments and suggestions.Correspondence to: B. Carlsson     

The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

Organisational change, technology, employment and skills: an empirical study of French manufacturing

This paper analyses the correlations between technological change,organisational change and skill change using a survey on organisationalchange in manufacturing firms conducted in 1993. Considerablediversity is allowed for in terms of the measure of technologicaland organisational change, and the analysis shows a positivecorrelation between technological change and reorganisations,whatever their types. The paper then analyses the relationshipsbetween these changes and the employment behaviour of firms.It shows that changes in the required skills and in the occupationalstructure of firms are more closely connected to organisationalthan to technological change. Although organisational changeaffects the work content and skill requirements of blue collarworkers, it is mainly indirect workers that are affected interms of the number employed. Finally, the analysis shows thattechnology tends to stabilise the workforce whereas the movetowards the model of ‘flexible enterprise’ favoursits renewal.     

Multiple perspectives analysis for integrating technology into a business : A knowledge systems case study

The increasing rate of technological change has pushed the management of technology to the forefront of today's leading organizations. This paper examines an increasingly important aspect of technology management: the integration of a selected technology into the organization. In this paper, I describe the issues of technology integration, give a brief synopsis of the multiple perspective research methodology, summarize a technology integration case study in the domain of knowledge systems (expert systems), present and describe the technology integration model, and state observations and lessons learned from my research.