MANUFACTURING REFORM AND THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR: THE CASE OF THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY*

This research assesses current changes in the nature of the supervisory role in the automobile industry. It locates these changes in the context of a transition from mass production to lean or just-in-time production. the emergence of a supervisory role, with supervisors performing critical functions as effective managers of integrated work areas is explored by focusing on two lean producers, Nissan UK and Mazda's Flat Rock plant in the US. Noting the increased responsibility of the supervisor under lean production, the extent of the supervisors’enhanced status and authority are considered. However, a case study of an established vehicle producer in the UK, involving interviews with a sample of forty supervisors draws out the structural and organizational difficulties faced by existing manufacturers in their attempts to reformulate the role of the supervisor.     

THE FATAL ERROR OF SOLVENCY II

The introduction of the Solvency II insurance company regulatory regime is based on a flawed application of scientific ideas to areas to which they are simply not applicable. The new regime will endanger the solvency of the insurance industry in the long run.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COMMENTS ON ‘THE GLOBAL IMBALANCES: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?’, THE 2007 WINCOTT LECTURE,GIVEN BY MAX CORDEN

The view that the United States will be able to run significant deficits for a long time is convincing. However, the proposition that it makes sense for foreigners to invest in the USA because of the high returns is questionable. The value of their US assets is at risk from dollar depreciation, inflation and government sequestration. Accordingly, there is a danger that foreign investors will cut and run, causing a brutal and swift adjustment.     

THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FOOLING ALL OF THE PEOPLE

The public's expectations about government policy are a key influence on the economy and can be more important than the policy itself. By allowing the public to know that it is considering reflation outside the Medium Term Financial Strategy, the government is reducing the credibility of the MTFS. This Forecast Release draws on some of the latest developments in economic theory, in the field of 'time inconsistency', to argue that the early years of the MTFS suffered from continuing but incorrect expectations that the policy would be abandoned. To avoid repeating this mistake, the government should promptly concede the current calls for reflation if it is unable to resist them, although a preferable outcome for unemployment and inflation can be achieved by re-affirming the MTFS. A worse outcome than either of these is obtained if the government continues with the MTFS while leaving open the possibility of a sudden reflation.     

A REVIEW OF THE RECENT LITERATURE ON THE INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS ANALYSIS OF THE LONG‐RUN PERFORMANCE OF NATIONS

This paper reviews the recent (post‐2000) literature that assesses the importance of institutions as a factor determining cross‐country differences in growth rates or in the contemporary level of “prosperity.” It first sketches how institutional economics has evolved. It then examines critically the methods of analysis employed in the recent literature. The paper finds that this literature has made a major contribution to the analysis of the causes of economic growth but the relative importance of institutions as a determinant of long‐run growth and prosperity is still a wide open question.     

ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF THE SUGAR INDUSTRY FOR FIJI

For more than a century, the sugar industry has been perceived as the backbone of the Fijian economy, given its contributions to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment generation. However, because of the non-renewal of land leases and the gradual withdrawal of preferential prices by the European Union, the industry is on the verge of collapse. We use the Fiji computable general equilibrium model to simulate the economy-wide impact of a 30% reduction in sugar production. Among our key results, we find that in the long run a 30% reduction in sugar production leads to a 2.1% fall in exports, and government expenditure and real consumption fall by 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. These declines in the aggregate demand components are reflected in a fall of approximately 1.8% in Fiji's GDP. The negative repercussion of declining economic growth is reflected in a 1.5% decline in real national welfare.     

THE ‘WHO AND WHY’ OF LOTTERY: EMPIRICAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SEMINAL ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Lotteries operate today in many countries around the world. This type of gambling is usually run by governments and is sometimes described as regressive. Lottery is an unfair bet, so explaining the purchase of lottery tickets by risk‐averse consumers has been a challenge for economic theory. Lotteries can be analysed from either of two economic perspectives: as a source of public revenue or as a consumer commodity. In this paper the state of economic research on lotteries is reviewed, focusing on its main empirical findings.     

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THREE DECADES OF RESEARCH ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PUBLIC CAPITAL?

The last three decades have witnessed a great deal of research effort devoted to measuring the private output elasticity of public capital. The wide range of available estimates have precluded any consensus so far, however. This paper reconciles the empirical findings of the literature by quantitatively analyzing a sample of 578 estimates collected from 68 studies for the 1983–2008 period. Using meta‐regression analysis, we show how study design characteristics and publication bias can explain a large fraction of the variation across estimates. We find a short‐run output elasticity of public capital supplied at the central government level of 0.083, which increases to 0.122 in the long run. If, in addition, only core infrastructure at a regional/local level of government is considered, these estimates are almost doubled. The average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0.106. Our results suggest that public capital is undersupplied in OECD economies.     

REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND POVERTY: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS AND THE EVIDENCE

While there is an extensive literature on the impact of regional trading agreements on trade and capital flows, as well as on the relationship between international trade, growth, and poverty there is comparatively little treatment of the possible linkages between regional integration and poverty. We analyze the channels through which regional integration could impact on poverty, and then review the existing evidence on the impact of regional integration on poverty. We focus on two key characteristics that make any regional integration process different from unilateral and multilateral liberalization: first, the asymmetric nature of the liberalization process; second, the scope or ambition of the regional liberalization being undertaken and the nature of the institutional arrangements that are put into place to manage the process of regional integration. We also distinguish between short, medium, and long run effects on poverty of regional integration processes. There is some direct evidence explicitly linking regional integration and poverty, but in good part the shedding of the light depends on an indirect literature on trade, FDI, migration, and inequality.     

THE VERY RAPID INCREASE OF JAPANESE TOURISTS ABROAD AND THE ROLE OF NATIONAL WEALTH

The strong performance of the Japanese economy, rising stock and land prices in Japan, as well as the strong yen, have prompted Japanese to travel abroad in ever increasing numbers in recent years. Despite several obstacles against growth, such as limited vacation time for employees of Japanese corporations, relatively expensive airline tickets, capacity limitations of international airports in Japan, booming resort development in Japan itself, and imposed constraints on Japanese direct investment abroad, Japanese travelers abroad, the majority of whom are tourists, increased from less than five million in 1985 to almost 10 million in 1989. The traditional demand function based on income and price may not explain all of the growth of Japanese overseas tourism, since some of the increase in Japanese travelers may stem from increases in expected future income based on increased wealth. This wealth effect hypothesis is tested using a log-linear regression model. It is found that wealth is a better predictor of overseas tourism levels than income. The effect of wealth increases on overseas tourism is also found to have a lag time of about one year. For this reason, it is proposed that the slowing in the Japanese economy this year will negatively impact Japanese overseas tourism next year.     

THE EFFECTS OF DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY ON MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES: A REAPPRAISAL

Abstract Fiscal stimuli to recover? A cascade of academic and layman articles debate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy backed up by different economic models and empirical support. This paper surveys the theoretical predictions and recent empirical vector autoregression evidence on the short‐run effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates.     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

货币政策地区效应——基于地区总供给曲线的理论与实证分析

本文着重检验了我国区域经济中的基于产出缺口的地区短期总供给曲线的存在性,进而分析地区短期总供给曲线对货币政策地区效应的影响。文章首先对地区短期总供给曲线存在的可能性进行了理论解释,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算了我国各地区的产出缺口,然后运用ARMA模型说明预期通货膨胀率形成机制,最后以通货膨胀率与其预期之差、外部需求冲击等作为解释变量对产出缺口进行回归,结果发现,我国东部地区的短期总供给曲线较中西部地区的短期总供给曲线更平坦,因而东部地区货币政策效应要强于中西部地区。     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ACTIVE LABOR MARKET POLICIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

This paper provides a meta‐analysis of microeconometric evaluation studies on the effectiveness of active labor market policies. The analysis is built upon a systematically assembled data set of causal impact estimates from 57 experimental and quasi‐experimental studies, providing 654 estimates published between January 1990 and December 2017. We distinguish between the short and longer term impacts in our analysis; at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after program start. After correcting for publication bias and country‐specific macroeconomic characteristics, subsidized labor and public employment programs have negative short‐term impacts, which gradually turn positive in the longer run. Schemes with enhanced services including job‐search assistance and training programs do not have these negative short‐term effects, and stay positive from 6 until 36 months after program start.     

On the Comparison of Run Orders of Unreplicated 2<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Superscript> Designs in the Presence of a Time Trend

The response from a factorial experiment carried out in a time sequence may be affected by uncontrollable variables that are highly correlated with the time in which they occur. In such a situation, one possibility is to randomize the run order of the experiment. Another possibility is to use a systematic run order that is robust against time trends. Since randomized run orders make the time trend part of the error, it can be hoped that systematic run orders will be more effective to identify truly active factors. In this paper, a simulation study is used to compare the performances of the randomized and the systematic run orders. The response from an experiment where we have observed a strong time trend is used to demonstrate the influence of a realistic time trend on the run orders under consideration. The performance of the run orders is then measured by taking the probabilities of false rejection and the probabilities of detection of active contrasts. Our results show that the randomized run order managed to keep the nominal level, while the systematic did not. Additionally, when there were active factors, then the systematic run orders did not achieve more power than did the randomized run order.     

THE EFFECTS OF COMPANY TRAINING,FURTHER EDUCATION AND THE YOUTH TRAINING SCHEME ON THE EARNINGS OF YOUNG EMPLOYEES*

Abstract This paper provides evidence on the impact of company training, of post-compulsory education and of the UK Youth Training Scheme in the late 1980's on the earnings of 21-year-old employees in England and Wales. Earnings equations are estimated for each of seven groups of employees who have followed alternative routes from compulsory education into employment, allowing for selectivity into these routes. There are several findings, including: both high parental social class and better school qualifications help to channel people into higher status routes, while high local unemployment has the opposite effect; participation in company training in long spells substantially raises wages but short spells do not; YTS participation fails to raise, and possibly substantially lowers, wages even three years after graduation compared to those who left school at 16 and went to work and received no training; there is weak evidence that, even for those that do not enter higher education, it is better to stay on at school after 16 than go into YTS.     

岩爆的发生机理及防治措施

岩爆是隧道主要地质灾害之一,给施工带来不利的影响,秦岭终南山经理部在岩爆防治上作了大量的探索和尝试,并取得了明显的效果,希望能为以后的工程提供一些有益的参考。