基于风险管理视角的石油安全风险辨析

<正>在风险管理视角下,石油安全风险成本,是国家安全风险成本的重要组成部分,实现风险成本最小化是石油安全管理的核心目标。石油进口的社会成本在经济学含义下,进口石油等高度依赖外部供应的战略性资源都会产生一种追加成本,但这一成本并不能从这些战略资源进口商的财务报表和会计核算中反映出来,而是表现为一种社会成本,由直接成本和间接成本两部分构成。     

应对能源安全挑战 构建能源安全体系

当前的能源安全问题是包括能源供应安全、能源需求安全、能源价格安全、能源使用安全在内的综合性风险与威胁。中国能源安全将面临:产业结构重型化趋势下能源需求增加的挑战;能源结构不合理,环境压力增大的挑战;争夺能源定价权的能源金融市场发展不足的挑战;能源价格倒挂下过度消费的挑战。为此,应从以下方面着手寻求应对策略:降低对石油能源的依存度,实施能源供应多元化战略;降低对中东石油的依存度,实施石油能源来源多元化;实施石油运输通道多元化战略,规避石油运输主要依靠水路,主要依靠马六甲海峡所带来的风险;增加话语权,力争定价权;促进各国能源合作,共建全球能源安全体系。     

国际油价暴涨背后中国石油安全战略探析

石油作为一种重要的战略性基础能源,对一国国家经济安全产生重要影响。甚至使某些西方大国不惜动用武力来试图控制国外的石油资源。我国目前面临的状况是:国际油价高企,在强劲经济的拉动下我国石油需求持续增长,而国内原油产量增长缓慢,供求失衡不断扩大,对国际石油供应的担忧也日益严重。文章就国内目前高油价对经济的不利影响、石油供求现状、石油进口价格、风险等问题做了分析,并提出了大力开展石油期货贸易,建立石油储备体系,提高能源利用效率等项政策建议。     

油价波动与风险采购体系

中国作为一个石油进口大国,石油安全引起人们的广泛的关注,很多学者和业内人士从石油供需两个方面提出了如何构建石油安全体系。但供需的平衡并不意味着石油安全,石油的安全应该从量、质、价三个方面进行思考,这是由石油这种可以称得上是特殊商品的特性决定的。中国当前面对海外石油价格的高位无所适从,对中国的石油企业和用油企业造成了不小的冲击,价格在石油安全中扮演的重要角色不得不引起我们的重视。一、国际油价暴涨对我国经济的影响从2004年起中国石油进口突破亿吨大关,中国石油的对外依存度逐年提高。国际油价的波动对中国的影响也…     

多元化能源战略下美国石油进口态势分析及启示

美国主要的能源战略之一是实现能源供应多元化。多元化能源战略下美国石油进口态势表现为:①石油进口总量、依存程度逐年增加;②从中东地区进口石油所占比例逐年减少;③努力扩大从非OPEC国家特别是周边国家石油进口;④份额油比重仍将继续增加。对我国的启示:①进一步加大国内油气勘探开发力度,确保国内石油稳产增产;②积极实施多元化进口战略,努力规避石油进口风险;③大力实施“走出去”战略,建立稳定的海外石油供应基地。     

中国大豆进口依存度影响因素实证研究

以2000~2015年的数据为基础,运用协整检验和误差修正模型,对中国大豆进口依存度影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,大豆进口依存度与国内生产价格指数、大豆进口价格之间存在长期协整关系,其中国内生产价格指数影响最为显著,其次是大豆进口价格的影响,可能与国际价格传导机制的滞后有关。因此应从提高大豆品质开始,扩张产业链结构,结合运输和仓储成本控制,争夺价格主导权,保障中国大豆进口安全。     

中国石油安全战略思考

战略资源石油对一个国家的经济可持续发展和安全至关重要。中国加入WTO后，一方面经济将快速发展，能源消费将进一步增涨，进口石油份额将越来越大，另一方面，中国必须遵守相应的规则，履行协议条款开放市场，这导致中国的石油供给安全风险增加；文章提出，中国可通过增加后备储量，建立完善的储备体系，实现进口多元化，推广使用替代品化解风险，全面提高石油供给的安全度。     

2011年上半年水果市场分析报告

上半年,国内水果市场基本在高价位运行,1-4月份基本延续了2010年第四季度的价格攀升,5-6月份价格回落。受到天气因素、质量安全因素、流通运输条件等影响,水果市场风险较大,特别是香蕉和西瓜价格波动剧烈,由此带来的种植风险较大。     

人民币汇率波动对中国农产品进口价格影响的研究

中国农产品进口的规模与强度正与日俱增,农产品进口价格受到人民币汇率波动的影响也日益显现。在小开放经济下,本文构建理论模型分析表明:人民币升值将激励农产品进口;人民币汇率风险越大,农产品进口的价格就越低;国内对进口农产品消费的越多,农产品进口价格就越低。在农产品国际定价权中,中国仍然是国际农产品价格的接受者,而未曾拥有国际农产品定价权。实证检验的结论与理论分析的结果也是一致的。     

对煤代油几种途径的浅析

世界石油资源短缺，价格已在高位上，还在继续上扬，到了用户难以承受的地步。但由于石油的特殊优异性和难以替代性，石油需求量仍不断增长，特别是我国石油需求量很大，由于本国资源严重不足，需要大量进口原油，同时还要进口以油为原料生产的产品，如果按表现当量记，进口石油量将更大。2006年全国石油消费量34876万吨，其中进口19453万吨，占55．8％。     

A new market for an old food: the U.S. demand for olive oil

While U.S. consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past two decades, nearly all olive oil continues to be imported. Estimation of a demand system using monthly import data reveals that the income elasticity for virgin oils sourced from EU is above one, but demand for nonvirgin oils is income‐inelastic. The demand for olive oil as a single product is price‐inelastic. Differentiated by product characteristic and origin, olive oils are highly substitutable with each other but not with other vegetable oils. News about the health and culinary benefits of olive oil and the spread of Mediterranean diet contribute significantly to the rising demand.     

利用CEM木材期货规避针叶材进口价格风险的可行性分析——基于月度统计数据的实证分析

CEM木材期货以产自北美的SPF锯材为合同标的物。过去一直认为CEM木材期货价格对中国的木材价格不产生影响,但是协整分析表明,滞后3个月的CEM木材期货价格与2012年5月以来的针叶原木进口价格之间存在长期均衡关系,说明CEM木材期货价格是针叶原木进口价格的格兰杰原因。考虑到进口针叶原木价格与中国木材市场价格综合指数高度相关,木材进口企业利用CEM木材期货规避针叶材进口中的价格风险是可行的。     

Marketing Olive Oil Products in the Tunisian Local Market: The Importance of Quality Attributes and Consumers' Behavior

This article is, to the best of our knowledge, the first investigation of Tunisian olive oil consumer behavior by the use of the conjoint analysis technique. The conjoint experiment was based on carefully selected olive oil attributes: type, taste, color, packaging, region of origin, and price. The results have important implications to improve the marketing of olive oil in the local market by focusing on key preferred attributes. Consumers were found to prefer more extra-virgin, followed by virgin olive oil, to pomace oil. They also showed higher preference for green colored olive oil with strong flavored taste. Contrary to a common belief in Tunisia, the region of origin attribute did not show significant effect on consumers’ purchasing decisions. The results show also that Tunisian olive oil consumers are price sensitive and therefore any price strategy to introduce bottled products should take into account consumers’ preferences for bulk purchase.     

我国主要能源产品进出口贸易分析

20世纪90年代以来,我国能源产品进出口贸易额和贸易量大幅度增长,在全国货物贸易和矿产品进出口贸易中占有重要的地位。我国能源产品进出口贸易的特点:能源矿产品进出口贸易逆差不断扩大;贸易结构趋于合理;对石油进口的依赖程度不断提高;贸易伙伴向着多元化的方向发展。我国能源产品进出口贸易中存在的主要问题:石油进口的比重偏大,而利用效力高、又清洁的天然气和电力等能源进口比重较低;煤炭和石油进出口量大幅度增长,给我国的交运、港口转运带来了巨大的压力。为此,文章提出:要进一步加强资源外交;加快我国能源消费结构调整的步伐;提高管道石油和天然气的进口量;建立与IEA的合作关系等一些建设性的建议。     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DOMESTIC OIL PRICE INCREASES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

The rise in the domestic price of oil products implied by the new import parity pricing policy for domestic crude oil is likely to pose some problems for macroeconomic management. In this paper an attempt has been made to quantify the short-run adjustment problems involved, using the ORANI 78 model of the Australian economy. Results are presented for a range of variables of interest, including macroeconomic variables, industrial and workforce composition and farm incomes. With fixed real wages, farm incomes are projected to decline by between 6 and 8 per cent.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Valuing Consumer Perceptions of Olive Oil Authenticity

Nowadays, while the authenticity of agri-food products becomes a major concern for consumers, given the increasing rate of food fraud reports across the world, olive oil records the highest adulterations. The high selling price of olive oil is the main reason for conducting adulteration, which is often caused through false indications on the packaging (mislabeling). On the other hand, consumers are well aware of the alteration, and they are looking for authenticity signals during the purchase process. Authenticity, therefore, becomes an evaluation and decision-making criterion that guides consumer choices. The aim of this paper was twofold: to highlight the attributes in which Greek consumers attach great importance during the evaluation of olive oil’s authenticity, and second, through consumers’ demographic segmentation, to gain more detailed knowledge about the attributes that consumers evaluate in olive oil authenticity. CUB (Covariates in a mixture of Uniform and Binomial random variables) models are employed for the interpretation of ordinal data due to the ability of comparing and clustering the rating distributions consumers express about olive oil features, and due to the ability of detecting significant similarities and differences in consumer responses. Moreover, with the introduction of respondents’ social, demographic, and financial characteristics, CUB models allow the measurement of the influence that the consumers’ profile has upon the attributes of olive oil authenticity. The results showed that consumers attached great importance to taste, acidity, country and region of origin, olive variety, color, organic production, and regional certification in the evaluation of olive oil authenticity. In addition, secondary school graduates tend to use taste and olive variety, also indicating confidence in the authenticity of organic olive oil.     

世界主要木本植物油产业发展变动与国际竞争力分析

运用USDA、FAOSTAT和UN Comtrade中的相关数据,分析了世界主要木本植物油产业发展的变动情况,总结出其生产、消费、进出口贸易的特点和规律,并对椰子油、橄榄油、棕榈油和棕榈仁油各自出口额排名前5位国家的主要木本植物油的国际竞争力进行比较研究,采用进出口数据评价法中最常用的RCA指数作为评价指标来判断其国际竞争力的强弱。