中国-东盟自由贸易区的新政治经济学分析

基于新政治经济学的分析框架,本文探讨了中国-东盟自由贸易区带给各国的收益,并分析了可能使其发展趋势发生逆转的因素,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Trade policy under imperfect competition: The economics of Russian roulette

Summary Neo-classical economic theory shows that managed trade or protectionism is (almost) always welfare decreasing. However, measurements of the welfare costs of protectionism based on neo-classical models seem to suggest that these costs are quite small. We discuss general new insights and developments in the theory, policy and empiricism of international trade. The observation that intra-industry trade and the services sector are important has led to a shift in theory away from constant returns to scale and perfect competition towards economies of scale and scope, externalities, market imperfections, and imperfect competition. Although this, in principle, opens the door to beneficial government intervention in the economic process, we emphasize that the true costs of protection can potentially be much higher than is generally acknowledged as a result of the above mentioned shift.We would like to thank, without implicating, Martin Fase, Harry Garretsen, Catrinus Jepma, Simon Kuipers, Ger Lanjouw, Tenn Schmidt, Albert de Vaal, and Jean-Marie Viaene for stimulating conversations and useful suggestions. We thank Thijs Knaap for excellent research assistance.     

A political economy theory of foreign investment: An alternative approach

The present paper uses the political economy model developed by Grossman and Helpman and studies the equilibrium of a game between the two countries; the home country, which exercises the trade policy for maximizing its objective function, and the foreign country, which controls the level of its capital export for the similar purpose. It is shown that if the production costs of the two countries are identical, the equilibrium of the game in which the two countries make simultaneous move will very likely achieve free trade.     

刍议我国农产品贸易政策改革

在国际贸易领域内,农产品贸易一直处于极其特殊的地位。农业所具有的基础性地位使其关联着粮食安全、环境保护、国内政治等诸多问题。中国是一个农业大国,农业在国民经济中处于极其重要的地位。基于对上述问题的思考,以及长期以来对农业问题的关注和对农业经济学的兴趣,本文从农产品贸易自由化与农业政策变革之间的互动关系进行了分析。     

加工贸易政策调整:政策信号与未来发展

近期有关加工贸易的政策调整相对比较频繁,这已引起了很多加工贸易企业的关注:政策调整信号如何理解?加工贸易未来的发展方向是什么?本文集中分析了加工贸易要不要发展,转型升级的障碍,以及未来政策调整的方向。本文认为,近期政策调整的信号可以概括为限制与发展,限制是为了更好的发展;无论是将加工贸易理解为保税监管的贸易形式,还是理解为国际生产分工的实现方式,当前阶段加工贸易发展的大格局不会改变。     

How to keep trade policy open: the case of Indonesia

We explore the ups and downs of trade protectionism in Indonesia since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The key constraints to unilateral trade reform include exchange rate factors, the political economy of consumer–producer behaviour, institutional complexity and global pressures. We conclude that trade reform is likely to face difficulties, with protectionism on the rise again, but that, during the temporary halt in the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of trade negotiations, Indonesia may be able to use regional and international engagement to counterbalance rising protectionism.     

基于贸易关联性的中、韩自由贸易区可行性分析

近年来,中国与韩国的对外贸易发展都较为迅速,双边贸易的发展极为迅速。2005年底,韩国宣布承认中国完全市场经济地位,使中、韩企业开展贸易的环境更为公平、公正。研究中国与韩国贸易关系的意义显得突出。通过对两国GDP,各自对外贸易及双边贸易分析,可知两国贸易发展有着深刻的内在联系,为两国建立自由贸易区打下了坚实的基础。自贸区建设可以解决目前双方贸易中存在的问题,因此,建立中、韩自由贸易区势在必行。应立足长远,在东北亚合作和"10+3"合作框架内建立中、韩自由贸易区。     

当前中美贸易摩擦问题的政策分析

由于中国已成为美国最大的贸易逆差来源,且这种贸易不平衡短期内不会解决,而中美贸易摩擦在未来较长时期却会存在。所以对该问题产生的背景原因、集中体现、结论对策进行深入分析就显得十分重要。     

论后金融危机时代我国的对外贸易现状和宏观经济政策

2008年以来,世界性的经济危机从美国席卷全世界。在经济危机中,中国的对外贸易大受打击。2009年,在各国经济扶持和促进政策的作用下,世界经济状况逐渐有所好转。中国在这期间通过扩大内需等方式保持了经济的平稳快速增长。在危机之后,新的形势和新的变化为我国的对外贸易提供了新的机遇和挑战,也对我国的对外贸易政策提出了新的要求。     

The trade depressing and trade diversion effects of antidumping actions: The case of China

China is by far the main target of antidumping (AD) litigation for most of its major trading partners. Recently, however, China itself has started using AD instrument intensively and was, in fact, the third leading country in initiating AD investigations between 2002 and 2004. This paper empirically investigates the impact of China's AD activities on trade by employing the system GMM estimator. The empirical results show that AD protection has significant trade depressing and trade diversion effects. These findings are consistent with Prusa [Prusa, T.A., 2001. On the Spread and Impact of Antidumping, Canadian Journal of Economics 34, 591–611.] and Brenton [Brenton, P., 2001. Anti-dumping policies in the EU and trade diversion, European Journal of Political Economy 17, 593–607] that investigate the trade effects of AD actions in the US and EU, respectively.     

奥巴马政府的对华经济政策与中美贸易摩擦

2008年作为全球性金融危机的肇始国,美国经济遭受重创。2009年初奥巴马正式入主白宫,随后,中美之间的贸易数据屡创新高,但中美贸易摩擦却如影随形,愈演愈烈。本文从奥巴马政府的对华经济政策的视角入手,在政策层面探寻中美贸易摩擦频发的原因。随后,提出对奥巴马政府对华经济政策的几点思考与结论。     

金融危机中的我国出口贸易

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机逐渐演变为全球性金融危机,发达国家经济濒临衰退,势必会对我国的出口贸易产生巨大的负面影响。文章从出口地区分布、贸易方式和出口商品结构三个方面分析了金融危机对我国出口贸易的影响,进而提出了相应的对策。     

中国-南非贸易摩擦及对策分析

中、南贸易摩擦伴随贸易增长也迅速增加,主要以反倾销、实施严格的技术性贸易壁垒以及进口配额限制为主,对南贸易逆差成为贸易摩擦的直接诱因,也是国外对华反倾销在南非发生连锁效应的结果;应增强涉案企业应诉的主动性,激励法律人才从事贸易摩擦的应诉工作,推动中、南自由贸易协定的谈判。     

Trade policy and specialization in developing countries

This paper examines the impact of trade policy on specialization patterns in ten Latin American countries over the period 1985–1998. These countries are natural case studies because in the last decades they implemented comprehensive trade liberalization programs, both generally and preferentially, starting from relatively high tariff protection levels. Our econometric results suggest that reducing own most favored nation tariffs is associated with increasing manufacturing production specialization. Furthermore, we find that preferential trade liberalization and differences in the degree of unilateral openness have resulted in increased dissimilarities in manufacturing production structures across countries. These results are robust across specialization measures and estimation methods.

中国纺织品贸易摩擦的现状及对策分析

中国作为纺织行业全球第一生产大国,纺织品出口在对外贸易中占有举足轻重的地位。但近年来,欧美等国与中国在纺织品贸易中的摩擦不断,使得中国纺织品出口频频受阻,成为制约我国纺织企业实施"走出去"战略的瓶颈。因此,我们有必要认清中国纺织品贸易的现状,分析摩擦产生的根源,从而思考出切实可行的对策,以解决纺织品贸易中产生的一系列问题,促进我国对外贸易的持续稳定发展。     

The choice of strategic trade policy in China under the WTO frame

This paper firstly elaborated the core thought and applies condition of the strategic trade policy; secondly put the strategic trade policy and WTO rule together to carry on analysis; finally, combined the concrete circumstance of China; put forward several suggestions on carrying out a strategic trade policy under the WTO frame.     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?

Existing literature repeatedly documented a strong correlation between trade and growth. It has also shown a causal effect of imports (though not necessarily exports) on growth in simultaneous equation models but to a lesser extent in Granger-causality tests. Export and import taxes have sometimes been found to negatively affect growth. Drawing policy conclusions from these general findings for a particular country is difficult not only because of the contradictory results but also because of potential second best world effects and the implied endogeneity of trade policy. Policy recommendations for a specific country require a careful analysis of market and institutional arrangements and can not be based on the existing cross-country literature.This project started while both authors were working at the World Bank. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or the institutions they are currently affiliated with. We would like to thank Lucas Bretschger, Shanta Deverajan, Marion Jansen, Marcelo Olarreaga, Howard Pack, Karen Pittel and Paul Welfens for helpful discussions and comments. We are especially indebted to Simon Evenett for very detailed and constructive comments.     

“碳关税”与中国外贸政策之应对

二氧化碳等温室气体排放导致气候变化问题日益受到人们关注。而美国为了在经济危机中寻找新的增长点,意图在新的节能经济中继续处于有利地位,也迫于其国内贸易保护主义的压力,于2009年6月22日通过《清洁能源安全法》。该法以限制温室气体排放、减缓全球变暖为由正式提出了对进口的高耗能产品征收"碳关税"。西方征收"碳关税"一旦成为现实,不仅会使西方国家在短期内达到贸易保护的目的,也会使其在节能环保的"低碳经济"时代保持经济和技术上的优势。本文首先对"碳关税"的由来以及西方国家的意图进行分析阐述,进而讨论其对中国外贸的不利影响,最后,从外贸政策的角度提出应对之策。     

中国服务贸易发展与经济增长关系的实证分析及对策研究

随着国际贸易服务的发展,中国的服务贸易有了很大发展。实证研究表明,服务贸易对国民经济增长具有积极的拉动作用。面对加入世贸后我国服务贸易环境的发展变化,我们应当积极采取措施,推动服务贸易的发展,充分发挥服务贸易在国民经济增长中的作用。