Protecting infant industries: Canadian manufacturing and the national policy, 1870–1913

Infant industry protection has been the cornerstone of a debate on tariff policy that extends at least from the eighteenth century to the current day. In contrast to traditional neo-classical models of international trade that imply net negative effects, industrial organization and learning-by-doing trade models describe how protective tariffs can encourage output expansion, productivity improvement, and price reductions. Taking Canada's 1879 National Policy as a natural experiment, we explore the effect of a policy that substantially increased tariff protection to some, but not all, Canadian manufacturing industries. Using treatment intensity and difference-in-differences approaches, we find strong support for the predictions of the new trade models. After 1879, industries that received greater protection experienced faster growth in output and productivity, as well as larger price reductions. The industries targeted by the National Policy also exhibited greater returns to scale and faster learning rates. These results have important implications for the infant-industry debate in addition to addressing a central theme in Canadian economic history,     

中美贸易摩擦实际关税加征的测算及其影响——基于细分产品数据的研究

基于中美贸易HS6位码细分产品贸易数据以及美国对华出口产品关税加征清单,本文测算了中美贸易摩擦对中国对美HS6位码细分出口产品实际关税加征幅度及其产业影响.文章结果显示,2018年、2019年中国输美产品承担的加税总金额为540.63亿美元,税率平均增加了5.22％,其中,计算机、电子元器件、家具、汽车零部件及配件等产...     

产业地理与贸易决策——理解中美贸易战的微观逻辑

2018年开始,美国对华发起规模空前的贸易战,具体内容主要包括“关税战”和“技术战”两个方面。贸易战在美国国内引发了明显的利益分化,利益受损方及其在政治体系中的代表力量成为特朗普政府与中国达成贸易协议以在某种程度上减弱贸易战烈度甚至结束贸易战的主要动力。由于美国的产业呈现高度的地理集聚特征,在中美贸易战中利益受到损失的产业最终会通过它们所在选区的政治代言人来表达自身的利益诉求,因此,理解美国产业地理政治的基本特征是理解中美贸易战进程中两国变换采取攻守策略的逻辑基础。作者认为,以产业集中分布为特征的产业地理和以选区为中心的政治地理是理解美国社会利益和政策偏好向联邦政府传导的两把“钥匙”,它们共同构成了塑造联邦政府对华贸易政策的微观利益基础和核心动力机制。由于受损者比获益者更有动力站出来表达利益诉求以影响政府决策,作者在实证部分集中关注美国对华货物出口行业的产业地理政治,分析中美贸易战中美国国内潜在的反对力量,进而为有针对性地制定对美反制措施提出政策建议。     

China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

农产品关税政策的内生性检验——基于国际数据的分析

关税等贸易干预政策普遍存在于各个国家的对外贸易政策之中,传统的自由贸易理论无法合理解释现实中的贸易扭曲现象,关税的决定问题得到广泛关注。关税政策具有内生性意味着关税由诸多因素影响而形成,是多方博弈的结果。这一判断需要通过实证研究得以验证,对农产品关税政策的内生性进行检验具有理论价值和实际意义。本研究基于国际视角对农产品关税政策的决定性问题进行实证研究,建立农产品进口和关税联立方程组,探讨各国(地区)农产品关税政策是否具有内生性并分析影响关税政策制定的主要因素。研究揭示出各国(地区)农产品关税内生性的一般规律,并为WTO谈判所处的困境提供了较为合理的解释,即一国在制定关税政策时会考虑诸多因素,多边谈判是各国利益角逐和博弈的过程。因此,应充分发挥WTO成员的利益协调机制,加强国家利益集团的作用。同时,充分估计到WTO农业谈判的艰巨性,不断加强我国参与农业谈判的能力建设。     

A Note on the Endogenous Timing of Tariff Policy in the Presence of a Time Lag between Production and Trade Decisions

Using the Hamilton–Slutsky extended endogenous timing game of observable delay framework, we analyze the endogenous timing of tariff policy in the presence of a time lag between production and trade decisions. In particular, focusing on the strategic relationships between an importing country’s government and an exporting monopoly firm, we show that a natural Stackelberg situation exists in which the importing country’s government as first mover determines the tariff rate and the exporting monopoly firm as second mover determines the production level. We also find that the natural Stackelberg equilibrium is Pareto superior to both the Nash and alternative Stackelberg equilibria. This implies that commitment to an ex ante optimal tariff policy before the production decision is made is optimal for the affected parties.     

贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型,文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现,关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响,并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策,对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看,积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用,关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应,不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此,基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则,中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击,同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制,以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。     

Determinants of shrimp importation into the USA: an application of an augmented gravity model

Shrimp farmers in the USA are facing the situation of increased imports resulting in reduced market share, falling prices, and reduced profitability for their farm-raised shrimp. The study examined the determinants of shrimp imports from China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia using an augmented gravity model of international trade. The results reveal that US imports from the four exporting countries are significantly affected by the GDP of exporting countries, GDP of the USA, exchange rate, unit import value (proxy for import price) of shrimp, and tariff. Tariff policy has implications for the US shrimp industry.     

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China's possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China's most‐favored‐nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China's signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the tariff concessions in a typical high‐standard FTA. It finds that there is a large gap between China's current tariff status and a high‐standard FTA, and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries. However, the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous. Analysis at the industrial level shows that, although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs, more jobs would be created in most industries. The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive, creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China. Therefore, China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.     

How Mobile Are Resources in Chinese Agriculture？ —— Implications for China＇s Agricultural Trade Policy

Agricultural trade policy in China has been the subject of heated discussion since China's accession to the WTO. Studies have been carried out and propositions put forth regarding comparative advantage, food security, development of the industry, and farmers’ income. In this paper, we attempt to provide an analysis from another important perspective: resource mobility, which is an essential assumption in free trade theory. By examining the mobility of different production resources in Chinese agriculture, namely natural resources, capital inputs, human resources and institutional arrangements, we found that for most production resources in Chinese agriculture, mobility is low. The results have significant policy implications in two respects: first, protective measures in the transitional period for certain crops in certain areas in China are legitimate and necessary to ensure social stability; and second, policy instruments to improve resource mobility in Chinese agricultural should be explored and implemented to realize more trade benefit in the future. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)     

Political Economy of US Trade Policy towards China

The trade relationship between China and the USA has become increasingly important to the economies of both countries. The recent trade conflicts and friction between China and the USA constitute obstacles in the way of US—Chinese bilateral trade relationship development, which is of considerable concern to both countries. Through an in‐depth analysis of the political process of US trade policy towards China, the present paper identifies the important determinants of US trade policy towards China. The influence of US trade policy on the trade relationship between the USA and China is assessed and implications for the trade relationship between the USA and China are discussed.     

广西北部湾经济区构建制造业基地的产业选择:以产品内分工为基础

广西北部湾经济区地理位置优越,在构建制造业基地方面已形成一定产业集群及建立了一系列的加工制造业。以产品内分工为基础来研究构建制造业基地的产业选择方向对北部湾经济区快速融入周边国家和地区的国际分工与贸易具有重要指导意义。分析广西北部湾经济区参与产品内分工的经济决定因素和物理决定因素,来选择其参与产品内分工的行业及切入产品内分工的价值链环节。     

浙江省海洋主导产业选择研究——基于国家海洋经济示范区建设视角

文章选择合理的海洋经济主导产业对区域海洋经济乃至国民经济的发展具有十分重要的意义。文章利用2008-2012年中国海洋统计年鉴数据,借助层次分析法构建海洋主导产业判识的指标体系,采用主成分分析法对主导产业进行了选择,海洋渔业、滨海旅游业、海洋船舶工业可以作为浙江省海洋经济的三大主导产业,并提出了关于合理发展浙江海洋主导产业的对策建议。     

日、韩战略性贸易政策对中国的启示:以汽车工业为例

战略性贸易政策作为战后一种新兴的国际贸易理论,已被各国所认可,并接受其作为促进本国重点行业发展的手段。本文主要分析日、韩发展汽车工业的成功经验并结合中国汽车工业的实际情况,简述了我国在实施汽车工业的战略性贸易政策是应着重推行的几点措施。     

Trade liberalization,wages, and specialization in China

This paper studies the evolution of regional specialization in China in response to trade liberalization. Using a panel of Chinese export data at the detailed commodity level over the period of 1988–2006, we show that China’s regional specialization follows a U-shaped pattern: both the interior and coastal regions diversify from 1988 to 1994 but specialize during the later reform period of 1994–2006. A theory of tariff reductions is proposed by constructing the Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson (1977) continuum of goods Ricardian model in a setup of two countries and three regions. The U-shaped pattern of specialization can be obtained from foreign tariff reductions followed by Chinese tariff reductions. This finding is supported by simulations, US–China trade policy review, and the pattern of China’s coast–inland wage ratio.     

How serious is the omission of bilateral tariff rates in gravity?

This paper presents a constructed dataset of worldwide bilateral tariff rates to explore the seriousness of omitting bilateral tariff rates from gravity equations. Results indicate, first, that omitting bilateral tariff rates presents no serious issue related to the omitted variable bias because coefficients for the usual gravity variables remain unchanged before and after their inclusion. Second, the widely used dummy variable for regional trade agreements is not a statistical substitute for tariff rates because the coefficient for bilateral tariff rates remains significant even if it is included. Similarly, time-invariant pair fixed effects alongside time-variant importer and exporter fixed effects do not substitute statistically for omitted tariff rates.     

战略贸易理论对我国高新技术产业及其出口贸易的启示

战略贸易理论与战略性贸易政策产生于现实世界对自由贸易理论前提的背离,自20世纪70年代以来对发达国家和发展中国家的贸易和产业政策都产生了较大的影响。中国作为发展中国家,实践证明只有通过出口贸易结构的优化与升级才能在国际市场中获得竞争力,发展高新技术产业是我国成为贸易强国的必由之路。本文首先阐述了我国高新技术产业及其出口贸易的现状,指出了我国发展高新技术产业,促进高新技术产品出口的必要性;其次,介绍并分析了战略贸易理论在我国的适用性问题;最后,在以上分析的基础上提出了战略性贸易政策对发展我国高新技术产业的有益启示。     

Tariff protection and workforce gender: Evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

A data set of 266 four-digit SIC U.S. manufacturing industries is used to examine the relationship between tariff protection and workforce gender. The paper shows that industries with a relatively large proportion of women are more likely to be protected by U.S. tariff policy, even when factors such as wages and human capital are controlled. Furthermore, this result is robust in that it is not driven by any particular industry or industries.     

Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach

The erosion of preferences due to multilateral tariff reductions is a long-standing concern for many developing countries. This paper focuses on the erosion of the preferences granted by the EU in the rice industry. Since 2004 there has been a sharp decrease in border protection for the EU rice industry. Because the EU grants trade preferences to a considerable number of rice exporting developing countries, the reform implied preference erosion as well. By addressing the impact of preference erosion on developing countries rice exports to the EU, this paper contributes two original insights to the literature: first, by proposing a new empirical approach to compute the preference margin when tariff rate quotas are in force which is based on the assumption of the existence of fixed costs and economies of scale in international trade; second, by estimating the trade elasticities of preferences by means of a dynamic panel gravity equation to deal with the issues of endogeneity of preferences and persistency in bilateral trade flows. The results show that the way preference margins are calculated matters significantly when assessing the existence and extent of their erosion and the values of trade elasticities. Finally, the estimations highlight the fact that the impact of preferences is still very strong for some of the countries concerned.     

Endogenous Sequencing in Strategic Trade Policy Games Under Uncertainty

This paper examines a strategic trade policy game with endogenous timing. A trade-off between commitment and flexibility is identified. The equilibrium timing of trade policy decisions is shown to highly depend on the degree of demand uncertainty. When demand uncertainty is low, countervailing duties will never be used because the home government always sets its import tariff before the foreign government sets its export subsidy. When demand uncertainty reaches a threshold level, the home government starts to find it optimal to move second with positive probability. As a result, we provide an economic rationale for the prevailing use of countervailing duties in practice.