CORRUPTION AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: A PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

This paper investigates the relationship between corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the case of 15 transition countries by using a panel gravity model approach and suggests that corruption does not deter FDI.     

UNDERSTANDING THE LONG‐RUN DECLINE IN INTERSTATE MIGRATION

We analyze the secular decline in gross interstate migration in the United States from 1991 to 2011. We argue that migration fell because of a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving. Micro data on earnings and occupations across space provide evidence for lower geographic specificity. Other explanations do not fit the data. A calibrated model formalizes the geographic specificity and information mechanisms and is consistent with cross‐sectional and time‐series evidence. Our mechanisms can explain at least half of the decline in migration.     

THE KNOWLEDGE-CAPITAL MODEL OF FDI: A TIME VARYING COEFFICIENTS APPROACH

The present article reexamines some of the issues regarding the Knowledge-Capital Model that encompasses both horizontal and vertical Foreign Direct Investment. The empirical support for this model is however mixed. This article proposes a new way of estimating coefficients by allowing them to vary over time. The estimation results obtained using data from 30 OECD countries for the period from 1982 to 2003 confirm that these coefficients cannot be considered as constant over time and that the vertical component of the Knowledge-Capital Model is relevant.     

CRIME AND EDUCATION IN A MODEL OF INFORMATION TRANSMISSION

We model the decisions of young individuals to stay in school or drop out and engage in criminal activities. We build on the literature on human capital and crime engagement and use the framework of Banerjee (1993) that assumes that the information needed to engage in crime arrives in the form of a rumour and that individuals update their beliefs about the profitability of crime relative to education. These assumptions allow us to study the effect of social interactions on crime. In our model, we investigate informational spillovers from the actions of talented students to less talented students. We show that policies that decrease the cost of education for talented students may increase the vulnerability of less talented students to crime. The effect is exacerbated when students do not fully understand the underlying learning dynamics.     

CRIME AND POVERTY: A SEARCH‐THEORETIC APPROACH*

Numerous studies document that criminal activity is positively related to unemployment and negatively related to educational attainment levels within given communities. We study this phenomenon in the context of a search‐equilibrium model, in which agents choose between formal employment and pursuing crime‐related activities (theft). Prior to their “occupational choices,” agents undertake costly schooling, raising their productivity. Crime acts, in essence, as a tax on human capital by affecting the probability that a worker's earnings (possessions) are subsequently appropriated. There are multiple equilibria. High crime, low levels of educational attainment, long spells of unemployment, and poverty are correlated across them.     

OVERSEAS NETWORK OF EXPORT PROMOTION AGENCY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: THE KOREAN CASE

Governments have established export promotion agencies (EPAs) in an effort to boost exports. Despite criticism regarding the effectiveness of EPAs, the policy has not been abandoned and there has been an increasing recognition of the benefits on the basis of economic justification, including market failures. Such policies must be based strictly on evidence. Are EPAs truly crucial for export success? Some have argued that export success in Korea has been due largely to government policies targeted at the promotion of exports. This paper demonstrates that the network of EPA offices abroad has been a critical factor in the success of Korea's exports. An increase of 10% in the budget of EPA's overseas offices has been shown to increase exports by 2.45%–6.34%. The findings of this paper present a clear rationale for government intervention. (JEL F10, F14)     

世界经济发达国家出口问题初探

本文深入研究了世界经济发达国家出口商品经济活动的原因机制。并且认为经济发达国家出口工农矿初级产品、技术密集型产品行为构成了其出口商品活动的重要特征即经济双维贸易性特征。而且这是经济发达国家出口商品活动中极力追求的目标。     

EDUCATION,WORK, AND CRIME: A HUMAN CAPITAL APPROACH*

This article develops a model of crime in which human capital increases the opportunity cost of crime from foregone work and expected costs associated with incarceration. Older, more intelligent, and more educated adults should commit fewer street (unskilled) crimes. White collar crimes decline less (or increase) with age and education. Predictions for age–crime and education–crime relationships receive broad empirical support in self‐report data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports. The effects of education, training, and wage subsidies, as well as enforcement policies on criminal behavior are discussed.     

汇率变动和退税率调整对中国出口影响的实证研究

"消费惯性"影响着一国内需,相应的"外需惯性"则影响着一国的出口。对于中国而言,由于外需消费群体的相对稳定性,使"外需惯性"成为影响其出口的主要因素。同时,中国特有的出口退税率调整政策以及汇率变动也不同程度地影响着中国的出口。从长治久安的发展战略考虑,中国必须逐步减少"外需惯性",而增强本国的"消费惯性",并科学准确地把握各种宏观经济政策的效果,更加有效地调控中国经济的发展。     

UNDERSTANDING LABOUR MARKET FRICTIONS: AN ASSET PRICING APPROACH

Labour market friction is viewed in terms of the market value of an employed worker as opposed to the position of the Beveridge curve. This market value of an installed worker, which I call Tobin's  Q  of a worker, is inversely proportional to the average quality of the match between employers and workers. Based on this measure, I find that the labour market friction rises during a period of productivity boom. This phenomenon is indirectly supported by the data where it is found that the relative value of a worker with respect to tangible capital shows a positive association with the total factor productivity. The model suggests that firms may be compromising the quality of a skill match during a period of tight labour market conditions.     

中国对外贸易出口结构存在的问题

目前,在出口总量日益增加的同时,我国出口结构存在的五大问题也日益凸显,直接影响我国外贸的发展和国家经济安全,对此,我们不能掉以轻心,应正视问题,认真分析,积极应对。     

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PROPERTY CRIME

Using U.S. data from 1950 to 2010, we analyze to what extent inflation raises the incidence of property crime. To match our theoretical predictions, we consider different types of property crime (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery) and broad and narrow definitions of inflation separately. We control for the state of the business cycle and demographic changes over time explicitly. Unobserved or difficult‐to‐measure determinants of property crime are captured through a stochastic‐trend specification within a state‐space framework. We find a robust statistical link between inflation and each of the four property crime rates. Our findings are robust to alternative definitions of inflation and the inclusion or exclusion of different control variables. In terms of policy, our findings suggest that monetary policy that creates inflation has costly spillover effects. (JEL J10, J11)     

EXPORTS,EXPORT COMPOSITION AND GROWTH: A SIMULTANEOUS ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. Although this research has contributed to measure the impact of exports on economic growth, it still has three main drawbacks. First, the studies on cross-section data suppose homogeneous production techniques for the countries involved. Second, most of the research introduces a bias in the estimation of the export impact on economic growth since it neglects all effects of simultaneity between these two variables. Finally, most of the estimated regressions in these studies may constitute ‘spurious‘ regressions since the analysis of the stationarity of the variables is missing. This paper considers the Tunisian case and tries to study the dynamics between growth and exports through a simultaneous error correction model. The study shows the presence of a positive and significant relationship between exports and economic growth driven by manufactured exports rather than food-processing exports and international tourism. The measurement of such a relationship is understated if the simultaneity between export expansion and G.D.P growth is ignored. [C 32, C 51, C 52, F 43]     

DOES THE GRAVITY MODEL EXPLAIN SOUTH KOREA'S TRADE FLOWS?*

This paper applies the gravity model to explain South Korea's bilateral trade flows and to extract practical trade policy applications. A trade structure and an Asian‐Pacific trade network are included in the gravity equation to characterize the peculiarity of South Korea's trade patterns. The empirical result shows that South Korea's trade follows a Heckscher–Ohlin model more than an increasing returns or a product differentiation model. South Korea has large unrealized trade potentials with Japan and China, suggesting that they are desirable partners for an FTA. North–South Korean trade will expand markedly if bilateral relation normalizes and North Korea participates in APEC.     

THE DYNAMICS OF NAMES: A MODEL OF REPUTATION*

The article studies reputation of names and its dynamics. First, the article shows that names backed by nothing intrinsic can bear reputation. Although the context is purely of adverse selection, a mechanism in the spirit of Kreps (1990) helps to sustain reputation. Second, it examines how the dynamics of the reputation affects the extent of sorting and the level of social efficiency and derives the dynamics in the equilibria with the highest efficiency. Finally, it empirically predicts that brand names can be fully established sooner in an industry where high‐end products have larger profit margins.     

区域物流引力和地位模型的构建及应用研究

借鉴引力模型思想和引力势原理,结合区域物流涉及的经济、信息、能耗等因素,重构引力模型参数,构建了区域物流引力模型和区域物流地位模型。以中国31个省级区域2009年的统计数据为基础,测算了区域物流质量、区域间的物流引力、区域物流地位等指数值,划分区域物流引力类型、比较区域物流本底地位和相对地位,定量分析了区域间物流联系强度和区域物流发展水平,并提出了促进物流引力加强、区域物流低碳化发展的建议,对实现区域物流、经济协调发展具有一定的指导价值。     

多种要素扭曲是否推动了中国企业出口

本文使用1999-2007年工业企业数据样本分析了包括资本、劳动及中间品在内的要素市场相对扭曲程度,并考察其是否能解释中国企业出口的独特成本优势。结论认为：中国制造业企业存在严重要素价格扭曲,不同要素的价格扭曲程度差异化较大。劳动力价格扭曲现象普遍存在,经济发展以牺牲劳动力价格市场化为代价。国有企业比重较大的行业资本价格相对较低,而私营企业比重较大的行业则资金成本较高。能源、原材料相关行业以及外资企业比重较大的行业中间品价格偏低;经过实证检验,要素市场扭曲的确对企业出口倾向起到推动作用,企业将获得的成本优势转化为出口优势,这表明低廉的要素价格是中国产品在国际市场中具有竞争力的重要原因。