The empirics of growth

Summary This study explores the long-run dynamics of economic growth, with particular reference to The Netherlands. The time span covered extends backwards to the mid-nineteenth century, using new time series on disaggregated physical and human capital stocks for the period 1850-1913. Economic growth in the nineteenth century is shown to have had a strong physical capital-using bias, initially concentrated in buildings and infrastructure. The close relationship between investment in machinery and economic growth did not begin to take shape until the end of the nineteenth century, to increase in strength in the course of the twentieth century.An earlier version of this article was published as a research memorandum of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GD 12), University of Groningen, October 1994. This article is based on research sponsored by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, and by the Foundation of Economic, Social, and Spatial Sciences (ESR), which is part of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). For helpful comments, we thank Jan Jacobs, Professor W.H. Buiter, Bart van Ark, Rainer Fremdling, participants of the Economic History colloquium at the University of Groningen and of the European Historical Economics Society's Summer School 1994 (Florence), especially Professor Alan Taylor (Northwestern University), participants of the Quantitative Economic History Conference 1995 (Cambridge U.K.), and two anonymous referees. Of course, the usual disclaimer holds.     

人力资本存量、R&D投资与中国工业增长转型

工业是中国当前三大产业中的支柱产业,工业增长模式的体制转轨很大程度上反映了中国经济增长模式的转轨方向和现状。文章借助1990年-2007年的统计数据进行计算和实证检验发现：中国工业企业从上世纪90年代初以依靠人力资本存量和物质资本存量积累的增长模式转变为新世纪以来以R＆D投资带来的技术进步和工业劳动力投入为主要产出支撑的新模式,虽然这种增长转轨并未彻底完成,但已经证明集约化增长模式将逐步成为中国经济可持续发展的主要途径。     

Regional Economic Growth and Spillover Effects： An Analysis of China＇s Pan Pearl River Delta Area

The Pan Pearl River Delta(PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004.It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China ’s two special administrative regions.In this paper,we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009.Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area.Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves.These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth.However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far.Therefore,greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects.     

Converging on the learning curve: Theory and application to German regional data

Converging on the Learning Curve: Theory and Application to German Regional Data. — Studies finding convergence between regions are usually based on the assumptions of decreasing returns to overall capital and ubiquitous exogenous technical progress. In contrast, we derive convergence from a model with endogenous knowledge creation and knowledge spillovers which interact with the regional formation of human capital. The model allows for conditional convergence due to interregional knowledge dissemination which is an important determinant of the regional learning curve. In empirical estimates for 327 German regions, it is found that the characteristics of the knowledge and the human capital sectors have largely the impacts on convergence which are predicted by the model.     

THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This study investigates the hypothesis that HIV/AIDS epidemic slows down the pace of economic growth. We examine 41 Sub‐Saharan African countries by using the empirical growth equation in an augmented Solow model in which health capital serves as a determinant of human capital. Econometric analysis is based on panel data and covers the period 1997‐2005. We control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with HIV prevalence that might also influence economic growth. As a key result we prove that the epidemic has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of per capita GDP in Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Do Parents Invest Less in Worse-Performing Children? Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis

This article uses data from Indonesia around the time of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis to examine the role of parental preferences in human capital accumulation. Using a household fixed-effects estimation, I test whether parental education spending is affected by child mathematics test scores. I find that parents are more sensitive to the human capital of younger children, who are penalised for having lower skills than their older siblings. Differences in investment by child gender or birth order are evident in 2000 but not in 1997. This suggests that parents may have an efficiency investment strategy only when resource-constrained, and that education of younger children may be a luxury good.     

江苏经济增长因素分析及政策建议

全要素生产率方法是研究经济增长质量的重要方法。文章对江苏20年来的经济增长因素进行了实证研究,将促进江苏经济发展的全要素生产率因素分解为：产业结构的调整、所有制的变迁以及金融深化,并根据柯布—道格拉斯生产函数建立计量分析模型。回归结果表明：传统要素投入的增长已经不再是江苏经济增长的主要驱动力,取而代之的是产业结构的不断调整以及非公有制经济的迅速崛起,而金融深化对现阶段的经济增长并未产生重要影响。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

中国西部地区经济增长源泉——基于人力资本与能源消费的双重约束

文章以中国经济发展相对落后的西部地区为研究对象,运用DEA方法将考虑人力资本与能源消费的经济增长分解为人力资本、复合物质资本、效率改善和技术进步四部分,探寻其经济增长的源泉,并对西部大开发前后进行了比较研究。发现以人力资本、物质资本和能源消费为代表的要素投入和以技术进步、效率提高为代表的全要素生产率对经济增长的推动作用几乎相等;但在西部大开发以后,以技术进步、效率提高为代表的全要素生产率对经济增长的推动作用呈现逐年上升的良好趋势。采用绝对收敛方程考察了中国西部地区经济增长与四类因素的收敛效应,发现中国西部地区出现了显著地经济收敛,而这种结果是技术效率、技术进步和物质资本积累的共同结果。采用Tobit模型深入分析了能源投入和人力资本对经济增长约束的传导机制,结果表明,中国西部地区经济增长可持续发展的重要源泉和动力在于转变经济增长方式。     

基于卢卡斯人力资本外部性内生经济增长模型对广东省人力资本贡献的实证分析

利用广东省1978-2009年相关数据,使用卢卡斯人力资本外部性内生经济增长模型,考察了改革开放以来主要影响广东省经济发展的物质资本、人力资本等因素,分析了物质资本和人力资本对广东省经济增长的贡献,并通过对不同时期贡献率的分析,具体考察了广东省经济增长的模式,结合当前形势对广东省经济增长模式的转型提出了相应的政策建议。     

The relationship between human capital and the economic growth in China

Human capital is one of the most important factors to promote economic growth. It is critical both on theory and practice to study how human capital investment and accumulation promote the economic growth in China. The thesis takes Lucas＇s Human Capital Spillover Model as the analysis tool. Through SPSS 14.0 software, it uses the serial data from 1992 to 2006 to analyze the human capital＇s correlation and contribution to the economic growth, so as to find out why the human capital contribution to economic growth is low. And then, in order to increase the human capital accumulation, it puts forward the relative strategies which include paying more attention to the importance of human capital, greatly developing education, improving the quality of human capital and investing more on the human capital of enterprises.     

安徽省人力资源状况与经济发展关系的实证分析

文章通过构建回归模型，分析了安徽省人力资源与经济发展之间的关系。实证结论表明高素质人力资源对于经济增长具有较大促进作用，所以，需要通过加大教育投入、建设人才环境进一步开发安徽省人力资源从而促进经济快速发展。     

收入分配差距对经济增长的影响：文献述评

收入分配差距与经济增长的关系一直是经济学界关注的研究领域。基于收入分配差距对经济增长影响效应的研究,主要集中在收入分配差距是否对经济增长有害的讨论以及收入分配差距影响经济增长的作用机制上。文章分别从这两方面对该领域的核心文献进行梳理,并对已有文献进行简评,提出了进一步研究的方向。     

Provincial Output Spillovers in China： Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

The paper uses a global vector autoregressive model to examine provincial output spillover effects in China. We find that there are effective output spillovers from Guangdong, Liaoning and Zhejiang to other provinces in China, but trivial effects from Shanghai, Shandong, Sichuan and Xinjiang, and negative effects from Beijing. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Guangdong and Liaoning is the main channel for creating provincial output spillovers, compared with domestic investment and exports. However, FDI spillovers tend to decrease, with spillovers from exports and domestic investment rising over time, so that the spillover effects in Guangdong and Liaoning are non‐persistent and highly volatile. Other channels of output spillover, such as domestic investment, should be enhanced. Impacts of shock from government expenditure on GDP vary significantly across time and provinces; inland and western provinces are most negatively affected. The heterogeneous spillover structure shows that regional policies might achieve better results than nationwide policies in reducing regional disparity.     

安徽省人力资源状况与经济发展关系的实证分析

文章通过构建回归模型,分析了安徽省人力资源与经济发展之间的关系。实证结论表明高素质人力资源对于经济增长具有较大促进作用,所以,需要通过加大教育投入、建设人才环境进一步开发安徽省人力资源从而促进经济快速发展。