What determines early exercise of employee stock options in Australia?

Employee stock options (ESOs) are a popular way of remunerating employees. We analyse factors at the firm and option level affecting the employee's decision to exercise ESOs before they mature. Exercises over the period 1998–2004 are analysed and the key factor influencing early exercise is found to be dividends. Exercises frequently occur well before maturity, but in most cases little time value is sacrificed. Our findings have implications for the ‘fair’ valuation of ESOs in companies’ financial statements, as required by the relevant Australian accounting standard, AASB 2.     

Discussion of “Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?”

The objective of the Landsman, Peasnel, Pope and Yeah paper (in this issue) is to compare, for current shareholders, the value relevance of four methods of accounting for employee stock options (ESOs). My discussion provides a unifying framework for the theoretical analyses and the link between the theoretical analyses and the empirical investigation.     

Non-marketability and the value of employee stock options

We adapt the Benninga et al. (2005) framework to value employee stock options (ESOs). The model quantifies non-diversification effects, is computationally simple, and provides an endogenous explanation of ESO early-exercise. Using a proprietary dataset of ESO exercise events we measure the non-marketability ESO discount. We find that the ESO value on the grant date is approximately 45% of a similar plain vanilla Black–Scholes value. The model is aligned with empirical findings of ESOs, gives an exercise boundary of ESOs and can serve as an approximation to the fair value estimation of share-based employee and executive compensation. Using the model we give a numerical measure of non-diversification in an imperfect market.     

Liquidity and employee options: An empirical examination of the Microsoft experience

In recent years several companies have offered employees the opportunity to transfer certain out-of-the-money options to a dealer. This paper examines one such high-profile program offered by Microsoft in 2003. The program was not very transparent in that employees were forced to decide whether to tender their options before knowing how much they would be offered, and it had only a modest rate of participation. Nonetheless, the market easily absorbed intense selling pressure as the options were transferred and hedged. The dealer, JPMorgan Chase, though profiting from the transfer, apparently failed to hedge the volatility risk it accepted from the employees and lost nearly the entire value it paid for the options. The overall experience has important implications for the design of programs that are intended to solve problems of low morale and increased turnover caused by underwater options.     

Equity value,implied cost of equity and shareholders’ real options

This study investigates the effects of shareholders’ real options on (i) firm financial performance and (ii) estimations of the implied cost of equity. After measuring the equity value of steady‐state operations using the residual income model, and the abandonment and expansion options using the Black‐Scholes option pricing model, I find that firms with a large expansion (abandonment) option value experience better (worse) financial performance than those with a small such value. I also find that ignoring these options results in a downward bias in implied cost of equity estimates by an average of 1.23 percentage points.     

Optimal exercise of executive stock options and implications for firm cost

This paper conducts a comprehensive study of the optimal exercise policy for an executive stock option and its implications for option cost, average life, and alternative valuation concepts. The paper is the first to provide analytical results for an executive with general concave utility. Wealthier or less risk-averse executives exercise later and create greater option cost. However, option cost can decline with volatility. We show when there exists a single exercise boundary, yet demonstrate the possibility of a split continuation region. We also show that, for constant relative risk averse utility, the option value does not converge to the Black and Scholes value as the correlation between the stock and the market portfolio converges to one. We compare our model's option cost with the modified Black and Scholes approximation typically used in practice and show that the approximation error can be large or small, positive or negative, depending on firm characteristics.     

Idiosyncratic volatility and cross‐sectional stock returns in Southeast Asian stock markets

We examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in five ASEAN markets of Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Our research was motivated by the findings of Ang et al. (2006, 2009) of a ‘puzzling’ negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and 1‐month ahead stock returns in developed markets and the suggestion of the ubiquity of these results in other markets. In contrast, we find no evidence of an idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in these Asian stock markets; instead, we document a positive relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and returns in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia and no relationship in the Philippines. The idiosyncratic volatility trading strategy could result in significant trading profits in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and to some extent in Indonesia. Our study underscores the fact that generalizing empirical results obtained in developed stock markets to new and emerging markets could potentially be misleading.     

Economic consequences of SFAS 142 goodwill write‐offs

This paper examines the economic consequences of goodwill write‐offs under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 142 (SFAS 142). Although write‐off firms have performed poorly, it is evident that deteriorating economic performance explains only a small proportion of write‐offs. After controlling for endogeneity of write‐off choice, I fail to find evidence that investors and analysts fixate on SFAS 142 goodwill write‐offs. I also provide evidence that write‐off firms pay higher audit fees, suggesting that auditors charge higher fees in response to extra audit effort. These results are consistent with the principles of market efficiency, analyst‐forecast rationality and efficient audit pricing.     

Bad beta good beta,state‐space news decomposition and the cross‐section of stock returns

This study employs an innovative market‐based approach, where return on equity (ROE) is employed as a proxy for cash‐flow news and a state‐space model is used for market news decomposition. We document that the bad beta good beta (BBGB) model of Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) explains about 30 per cent of the cross‐sectional variations in US stock returns. We also find that the BBGB model adequately explains the size effect leading to its superior performance in this area. Our method controls for the news decomposition method and market news proxies’ bias. We contribute to the literature by providing an alternative easy‐to‐implement and consistent market‐based method for news decomposition.     

Estimating and validating a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism: Australian evidence

We provide new evidence on the asymmetric timeliness with which economic gains and losses are recognized in Australian financial reporting (i.e. conservatism), as well as some of the factors associated with variation in conservatism. We first derive, and then estimate and subsequently validate, a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism (C_Score) in the manner suggested by Khan and Watts (2007) . Our results indicate that conservatism is a pervasive feature of the Australian financial reporting environment. Conservatism is positively associated with stock return volatility, investment cycle length and prior period conservatism, and it is negatively associated with firm age, firm size and leverage. The results are an encouraging start for research into the causes and consequences of conservatism in Australian financial reporting.     

Monetary Policy,Asset Prices,and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets

We develop a model where agents can allocate their wealth between a liquid asset, which can be used to purchase consumption goods, and an illiquid asset, which represents a better store of value. Should a consumption opportunity arise, agents may visit a frictional “over‐the‐counter” secondary asset market where they can exchange illiquid for liquid assets. We characterize how monetary policy affects both the issue price and the secondary market price of the asset. We also show that, in contrast to conventional wisdom, search and bargaining frictions in the secondary asset market can improve welfare if inflation is low.     

Profitability,Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions

In a production‐based asset pricing model without adjustment costs and with decreasing returns to scale following Brock (1982), stock returns at the firm level are determined by profitability, the book‐to‐market ratio, and the change in future profitability prospects. Although firms with low book‐to‐market ratios are normally more profitable and profitable firms are predicted to have higher returns, the stylized fact that book‐to‐market ratios positively forecast returns still holds theoretically, but with specific predicted exceptions. These implications are confirmed empirically.     

Local Trends in Price‐to‐Dividend Ratios—Assessment,Predictive Value,and Determinants

Persistent variations of the log price‐to‐dividend ratio (PD) and their economic determinants have attracted a lively discussion in the literature. We suggest a gradually time‐varying state process to govern the persistence of the PD. The adopted state‐space approach offers favorable model diagnostics and finds particular support in out‐of‐sample stock return prediction. We show that this slowly evolving mean process is jointly shaped by the consumption risk, the demographic structure, and the proportion of firms with traditional dividend payout policy during the past 60 years. In particular, the volatility of consumption growth plays the dominant role.     

Banks' Use of Accounting Discretion and Regulatory Intervention: The Case of European Banks' Impairments on Greek Government Bonds

This paper analyzes troubled banks' use of accounting discretion and its interaction with regulatory intervention in a time of financial distress. We analyze impairment losses that Europe's largest banks recognized on Greek Government Bonds (GGB) during 2011, the time during which GGB were considered impaired. Our findings reveal considerable variation in the impairment ratios across banks. Banks with larger GGB exposures, for which a full impairment would deplete a large share of regulatory capital, recognize significantly lower impairment ratios. Furthermore, we find that troubled banks delay full impairments until state aid is provided. Troubled banks recognize significantly lower impairment ratios in the quarter before they are provided with state aid, but substantially increase their impairment ratios afterwards. This pattern is consistent with the notion that troubled banks initially understate impairments to conceal the full extent of their financial difficulties from less sophisticated non-regulator outsiders (e.g., depositors and the general public), which increases regulators' ability to practice forbearance by not intervening immediately.     

Regime Shifts in Price‐Dividend Ratios and Expected Stock Returns: A Present‐Value Approach

We incorporate regime shifts in the mean of price‐dividend ratios into the present value model of van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) who propose a latent variable approach to modeling expected returns and dividend growth rates. We find that accounting for regime shifts results in much lower persistence of expected returns and higher volatility of expected returns, and thus higher in‐sample predictability, when compared to the results from the van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) model. We also show that the main source of the increase in the mean of price‐dividend ratios in the mid‐1990s is a decrease in the mean of expected returns.     

Two Extensive Margins of Credit and Loan‐to‐Value Policies

We analyze a model of mortgage markets, housing tenure choice, heterogeneous agents, and default with closed form solutions. We uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work, and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions. Then we study optimal loan‐to‐value (LTV) regulation and show that the choice of an LTV cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default. Homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities.     

Stock price firm‐specific information on the choice of stock payment in mergers and acquisitions

Previous studies on the choice of stock payment in M&A mainly focus on managerial private information. This study shows that managers also learn new firm‐specific information from financial markets in making this decision. The acquirer's stock price firm‐specific information increases the stock‐payment‐to‐Q sensitivity. The target's stock price firm‐specific information decreases the stock payment probability. Further analyses on deal and firm characteristics as well as shareholder wealth in stock mergers support the managerial learning argument. Overall, this study highlights a new set of information that affects the form of merger payment in mergers and acquisitions.