Wage Formation,Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness*

Empirical studies of regional wage formation and interregional migration routinely include the regional unemployment rate as indicator of local labour market tightness. However, these studies are usually motivated by economic theories that emphasize transition probabilities between unemployment and employment, and the unemployment rate is an imperfect proxy for these probabilities. We use a large micro data set to compute estimates of the rate of outflow from unemployment for 90 Norwegian travel‐to‐work areas. The outflow rates perform better than traditional measures of regional labour market tightness in panel data analyses of regional wages and interregional migration.     

Tied Migration and Subsequent Employment: Evidence from Couples in Britain*

We use unique information on migration behaviour and reasons for migration to study the impact of tied migration on labour market outcomes among husbands and wives. Fewer than 2% of couples migrate for job‐related reasons and the majority of these move for reasons associated with the husband's job. Estimates from dynamic random‐effects models indicate that husbands and wives in couples that migrated for job‐related reasons suffer lower job retention rates than non‐migrants. Tied migration reduces the probability of subsequent employment for both husbands and wives and in particular has a large negative impact on job retention rates among wives.     

Cultural Diversity and Cultural Distance as Choice Determinants of Migration Destination

This study analyses the impact of cultural composition on regional attractiveness from the perspective of international migrant sorting behaviour on a European regional NUTS1 level. We use an attitudinal survey to quantify cultural distances between natives and immigrants in the region concerned, and estimate the migrants’ varying preferences for both cultural diversity and cultural distance. To account for regional unobserved heterogeneity, our econometric analysis employs artificial instrumental variables, as developed by Bayer et al., [2004a. An equilibrium model of sorting in an urban housing market. NBER no. 10865]. The main conclusions are twofold. On the one hand, cultural diversity increases regional attractiveness. On the other hand, average cultural distance greatly weakens regional attractiveness.     

Intrahousehold Welfare in Rural Ethiopia*

We examine the relationship between bargaining power and intrahousehold welfare in rural Ethiopia. The relative nutrition of spouses is associated with differences in cognitive ability, independent income and asset devolution upon divorce. Female empowerment benefits child nutrition and education. Spouses’ health, leisure and consumption of assignable goods show no association with differences in bargaining power. The relative nutrition and health of spouses varies across villages, but not in ways predicted by anthropological accounts of female empowerment. Bargaining variables may be weakly associated with intrahousehold welfare because surveyed households are poor and have little room for disagreement over consumption.     

The Dynamics of Returns to Education in Kenyan and Tanzanian Manufacturing*

We use micro data on manufacturing employees in Kenya and Tanzania to estimate returns to education and investigate the shape of the earnings function in the period 1993–2001. In Kenya, there have been long‐run falls in the returns to education while for Tanzania there is evidence of rising returns in the 1990s. The earnings functions are convex for both countries and this result is robust to endogeneity. Convexity may be part of the explanation as to how rapid expansion of education in Africa has generated so little growth if expansion has been concentrated at lower levels of education.     

Impacts of Prime‐age Adult Mortality on Labour Supply: Evidence from Adolescents and Women in South Africa*

This paper examines the impact of prime‐age adult mortality on the transition made by adolescents from school to the labour market and on female adult labour force participation decisions in South Africa. We find, first, that deaths of prime‐age adults significantly increase both male and female adolescents’ labour force participation as they stop their schooling. Secondly, the death of prime‐age adults in general also decreases school enrolment ex ante. Thirdly, female adults tend to join the labour force following the death of prime‐age adult males. These findings imply that prime‐age adult mortality increases labour supply and disrupts human capital formation.     

Protecting Education for the Poor in Times of Crisis: An Evaluation of a Scholarship Programme in Indonesia*

This paper analyses the impact of an Indonesian scholarship programme, which was implemented in 1998 to preserve access to education for the poor during the economic crisis. Scholarships were targeted pro-poor and the allocation process followed a decentralized design, involving both geographic and individual targeting. The identification strategy exploits this decentralized structure, relying on instrumental variables constructed from regional mistargeting at the initial phase of allocation. The programme has increased enrolment, especially for primary school-aged children from poor rural households. Moreover, the scholarships seem to have assisted households in smoothing consumption during the crisis, relieving pressure on households’ investments in education and utilization of child labour.     

Marriage Market,Parents’ Bargaining Powers,and Children's Nutrition and Education*

Test of resource pooling and test of effect of sex ratio in the marriage market on intrahousehold resource allocation are combined to test the unitary household model. The consistency condition between the two tests is derived to test the Nash household bargaining and Pareto‐efficient household models. I examine intrahousehold resource allocation to children's nutrition and education in Indonesia. For children's nutrition, the unitary household model is rejected in favour of the non‐unitary models. The results for investment in education are mixed. The decision‐making process may differ depending on the type of decision being made.     

Wages, Welfare Benefits and Migration

Differences in economic opportunities give rise to strong migration incentives, across regions within countries, and across countries. In this paper we focus on responses to differences in welfare benefits across States. We apply the model developed in Kennan and Walker (2008), which emphasizes that migration decisions are often reversed, and that many alternative locations must be considered. We model individual decisions to migrate as a job search problem. A worker starts the life-cycle in some home location and must determine the optimal sequence of moves before settling down. The model is sparsely parameterized. We estimate the model using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979). Our main finding is that income differences do help explain the migration decisions of young welfare-eligible women, but large differences in benefit levels provide surprisingly weak migration incentives.     

Health,economic resources and the work decisions of older men

We specify a dynamic programming model that addresses the interplay among health, financial resources, and the labor market behavior of men late in their working lives. We model health as a latent variable, for which self-reported disability status is an indicator, and allow self-reported disability to be endogenous to labor market behavior. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. While we find large impacts of health on behavior, they are substantially smaller than in models that treat self-reports as exogenous. We also simulate the impacts of several potential reforms to the Social Security program.     

Simulation Estimation of the Convergence of the Black–White Earnings Gap and Income Dynamics*

In this article, the effect of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap and income dynamics is studied through the dynamic panel Tobit models implemented using the simulation estimators. It is found that the black–white earnings gap declined moderately after the implementation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act in 1965. Based on the simulation studies of wage trajectories, it is also found that the positive impact of the Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap is especially significant for the group of middle‐aged and highly educated workers. Moreover, the rich dynamic structure of the earnings process is identified from the Current Population Survey‐Social Security Administration data set. It is shown that the various sources of dynamics in the earnings process are dominated by spurious state dependence for both blacks and whites.     

Education,Occupation and Career Expectations: Determinants of the Gender Pay Gap for UK Graduates*

Despite anti‐discrimination policies, women are paid 20% less then men in the UK. A large proportion of this wage gap is usually left unexplained. In this paper, I investigate whether the unexplained component is due to mis‐specification. Using a sample of recent UK graduates, I examine the role of choice variables (subject of study and occupation) as well as career expectations and aspirations. The evidence indicates that women are more altruistic and less career‐oriented than men. Career break expectations, for example, explain 10% of the gender wage gap in the favoured model. By omitting attitudinal variables, most studies are likely to overestimate the unexplained component of the gender wage gap. Women with a more traditional view concerning childrearing are also found to have less intensive search behaviour. Since aspirations may reflect perceived discrimination or social pressure, current legislations are unlikely to reduce the gender wage gap.     

How Does Education Affect the Earnings Distribution in Urban China?*

It is widely believed that investing in education could be an effective strategy to promote higher standards of living and equity. We empirically assess this claim by estimating returns to education across the whole earnings distribution in urban China and find supporting evidence. In particular, we find that returns to education are more pronounced for individuals in the lower tail of the distribution than for those in the upper tail and that returns to education are uniformly larger for women than men. We also find that returns to education increased over time across the whole earnings distribution.     

Testing Convergence in Income Distribution*

The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is often used to test for convergence in income distribution in a dynamic panel set‐up. We argue that though consistent, the GMM estimator utilizes the sample observations inefficiently. We propose a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator with more efficient use of sample information. Our Monte Carlo study shows that the GMM estimator can be very imprecise and severely biased in finite samples. In contrast, the OLS estimator overcomes these shortcomings.     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.     

The Rise in Danish Unemployment: Reallocation or Mismatch?*

The two main competing theories for the outward shift in the uv‐curve are investigated: increased separations from employment at a given employment level (reallocation) and decreased levels of hires, given unemployment and vacancies (mismatch). Shifts in the unemployment–vacancy (uv)‐curve and the hiring function are modelled by smooth transition functions, and the hypothesis of analogous shifts in the two curves is tested and accepted. This is interpreted as evidence in favour of the mismatch hypotheses.     

Occupational Labour Demand and the Sources of Non‐neutral Technical Change*

This article introduces a two‐step empirical approach for examining both the nature and sources of non‐neutral technical change across multiple occupations. First, conventional labour‐demand parameter estimates and unbiased tests for neutrality are obtained in the context of a flexible cost system. The resulting input‐specific indices of technical change, unconstrained with respect to time path, facilitate subsequent evaluation of proposed sources. In our application to employment decisions of airline firms, we find labour‐saving technical change that is non‐neutral across occupations. We also document occupation‐specific responses to aircraft technology adoption, route system developments and an unprecedented range of technical change elements.

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Robust Inference on Average Economic Growth*

We discuss a method to estimate the confidence bounds for average economic growth, which is robust to misspecification of the unit root property of a given time series. We derive asymptotic theory for the consequences of such misspecification. Our empirical method amounts to an implementation of the subsampling procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (Econometrica, 2001, Vol. 69, p. 1283). Simulation evidence supports the theory and it also indicates the practical relevance of the subsampling method. We use quarterly postwar US industrial production for illustration and we show that non‐robust approaches rather lead to different conclusions on average economic growth than our robust approach.     

The value of life: Real risks and safety-related productivity in the Himalaya

This paper estimates the value of a statistical life from commercial Himalayan expeditions. Because deaths occur with a fair amount of regularity, fatality rates are calculated for each mountain trail and are, hence, disaggregated measures of risk. Also, since the marginal product of labor in the industry is (in part) the marginal product of safety, our revenue measures may account for unobserved safety-related productivity of guides. Guide safety is explicitly observed by market participants, and is reflected in higher wages for safer guides. Our VSL estimates are about $5 M.     

A Micro‐Decomposition Analysis of Aggregate Human Development Outcomes*

We show how differences in aggregate human development outcomes over time and space can be additively decomposed into a pure mean income (growth) component, a component attributed to differences in the distribution of income, and components attributed to ‘non‐income’ factors and differences in the model linking outcomes to income and non‐income characteristics. The income effect at the micro level is modelled non‐parametrically, so as to flexibly reflect potentially complex distributional changes. Our proposed method is illustrated using data for Morocco and Vietnam, and the results offer some surprising insights into the observed aggregate gains in schooling attainments.