THE SELECTION OF POLICIES FOR BALLOT INITIATIVES: WHAT VOTERS CAN LEARN FROM LEGISLATIVE INACTION

This paper models the process through which proposals are placed on the ballot as initiatives. Importantly, proposals that reach the ballot were not enacted by the legislature. We show that this fact has important consequences for the type of policy proposals that reach the ballot: as the legislature would enact any proposal that increases everyone's utility (in expectation), proposals that reach the ballot must be bad for some segment of the population. We partition the population into voters who would benefit from a group's proposal and those who would not and show that voters can use the legislature's inaction to obtain a better estimate of the initiative's expected value. In particular, we show that voters that are not in the sponsoring group infer that proposals that become initiatives have negative expected value and that the expected value of an initiative is decreasing in the size of the group that sponsors it.     

THE COST OF LAND USE REGULATION VERSUS THE VALUE OF INDIVIDUAL EXEMPTION: OREGON BALLOT MEASURES 37 AND 49

This article presents an exploratory analysis of the effects of land use regulations on land values and land use patterns in a landscape near Eugene, Oregon. All land use regulations considered in this study, including exclusive farm use zoning, forest zoning, urban growth boundary designation, residential density zoning, commercial zoning, and industrial zoning, are found to affect land values and land use patterns both inside and outside of the designated zones. The framework is applied to measure the costs of the regulations versus the value of individual exemptions at the parcel level to illuminate the controversy surrounding Oregon Measures 37 and 49, which were passed to provide “just compensation” for “unfair regulatory burdens.” The cost of regulation is found to be lower than the value of an individual exemption for most regulations contested in the Measure 37 claims. However, governments tend to overregulate from the perspective of landowners. Although some land gained value under the six regulations and some lost value, the aggregate loss of land value was estimated to be several times larger than the gain. This does not necessarily mean that the governments overregulate from the perspective of society because land use regulations also generate public goods such as wildlife habitat and water quality protection. (JEL K11, R15, R52)     

COMPETITION,REGULATION AND WELFARE IN THE PRESENCE OF NETWORK EXTERNALITIES*

In this paper we consider a simple model of an industry with network externalities, where a benefit to each consumer from network services depends on the size of the network. We first consider a single network and cover the cases with and without fixed cost of entry. We then turn to the two‐network industry, where the incumbent network and a new entrant network compete for the market and may differ both in their marginal costs and demand structures. In addition, we identify several situations where public policy may play a crucial role in sustaining socially advantageous network service provision.     

THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON CONSUMER SURPLUS, PROFIT, AND SOCIAL WELFARE

This study estimates the effect of U.S. cigarette advertising on social welfare. Because economists hold different beliefs about the nature of advertising, the analysis uses three different empirical models to test the welfare implication of cigarette advertising. Each model employs estimates of a demand equation and a supply relation to calculate a single point estimate of the impact of advertising on profit, consumer surplus, and total surplus. Bootstrapping generates confidence intervals for each welfare estimate. The results indicate that the cigarette industry is not competitive and that advertising significantly increases market power. Further, advertising significantly reduces consumer surplus if it is either purely persuasive or purely informative but has no significant effect on total surplus.     

TEMPORARY EMIGRATION AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF LOW‐SKILLED LABOR

This article studies the implications of temporary emigration for the welfare of a source country. The framework is one of general equilibrium, where the economy's stocks of both capital and labor are endogenously determined by the saving and migration decisions of optimizing agents. Simulations of the model suggest that for realistic values of the parameters, welfare of nonmigrants of the source country is maximized when the migrants are employed abroad for a period in the range of roughly 8–12 years. The ideal duration is found to be an increasing function of the international wage differential, migration costs, and the degree to which the rights of migrants are protected in the host country.     

MICROFINANCE REGULATION AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: THE CASE OF NIGERIA AND ZAMBIA

This study examines the effect of regulations on microfinance institutions in Nigeria and Zambia by focusing on the post‐regulation experiences and reflections of the microfinance institutions (MFIs) and their regulators. Based on in‐depth interviews with the Central Banks as regulators, MFI managers, practitioners and apex microfinance associations, the study finds that regulations in both countries have managed to professionalize the sector, but their effectiveness in augmenting the centrality of social goals to microfinance and MFIs remains doubtful. The poorly designed regulations are not only undermining social goals but also sending wrong signals to would be social investors, with implications for the social image of the industry. The study further finds that regulations have neither speeded the emergence of sustainable MFIs (especially in Zambia) nor accelerated the sectors’ outreach to the poor and the financially excluded. Additionally, considerable levels of political interference and poor regulation have led to unintended consequences to the sector, further frustrating the ultimate goal of extending financial services to the poor. These findings have policy and practical implications for how microfinance engages with the regulatory logic and continues to serve those at the bottom of the pyramid.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

Abstract.  The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.     

CREDIT CRUNCH AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE,THE CASE OF THE KOREAN FINANCIAL CRISIS*

We examine how the credit crunch in Korea in the late 1990s affected household behaviour and welfare. Using 1996–1998 household panel data, we estimate a consumption Euler equation, augmented by endogenous credit constraints. Korean households coped with the negative shocks of the 1997 credit crunch by reducing consumption of luxury items while maintaining food, education and health related expenditures. Our results show that, in 1997–1998, during the crisis, the probability of facing credit constraints and the resulting expected welfare loss from the binding constraints increased significantly, suggesting the gravity of the credit crunch at the household level.     

AIRPORT CONGESTION PRICING AND ITS WELFARE IMPLICATIONS: THE CASE OF VARIABLE PASSENGER TIME COSTS

This paper develops an analytical framework for airport congestion pricing by considering variable passenger time costs. We find that, first, congestion delays will not be fully internalized at the carrier level under different market structures, including those airports dominated by a monopoly airline. Therefore, congestion pricing is necessary regardless of the market structures. Second, although congestion pricing is welfare‐improving, it may not be Pareto‐improving. This might explain why congestion pricing is unpopular in the real world.     

INTERNAL REGULATION BY MIXED ENTERPRISES: THE CASE OF THE ITALIAN WATER SECTOR

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper aims at proposing an economic analysis of mixed enterprises in local utilities. We suggest that the public service concession to mixed enterprises could embody a noteworthy substitute to the traditional public provision and the concession to totally private enterprises. The starting point of the entire analysis is that ownership allows the (public) owner to gather more information about the actual management of the firm, according to property rights theory. Following it, we conclude that under certain conditions mixed enterprises could significantly reduce asymmetric information between regulators and regulated firms by implementing a sort of 'internal' regulation. With more information, the public authority can stimulate the private operator to be more efficient and can monitor it more effectively with respect to the fulfilment of contractual obligations. Moreover, concerning the latter function, the board of directors of these enterprises can be the suitable place where public and private representatives can meet to solve all disputes arising from incomplete contracts.     

THE WELFARE IMPACT OF REDUCING CHOICE IN MEDICARE PART D: A COMPARISON OF TWO REGULATION STRATEGIES*

Motivated by widely publicized concerns that there are “too many” plans, we structurally estimate (and validate) an equilibrium model of the Medicare Part D market to study the welfare impacts of two feasible, similar‐sized approaches for reducing choice. One reduces the maximum number of firm offerings regionally; the other removes plans providing donut hole coverage—consumers’ most valued dimension. We find welfare losses are far smaller when coupled with elimination of a dimension of differentiation. We illustrate our findings’ relevance under current health care reforms, and consider the merits of instead imposing ex ante competition for entry.     

ENRICHING WORK ENVIRONMENT IN THE WELFARE SERVICE SECTOR: THE CASE OF SOCIAL ENTERPRISES IN SWEDISH CHILDCARE

Karasak and Theorell's demand/control model for analyzing work environment posits a high degree of both demands and control for active or good working conditions, while stress occurs when demands are plentiful, but there are few possibilities of control. This article addresses a significant increase of work‐related demands for the employees of the public sector in Sweden. It also explores the potential contribution of social enterprises to enrich work environment and provide ‘good work’. The empirical data was taken from two separate studies of work environment at Swedish childcare facilities, one from 1994–95 and another from 2006–07. The article shows that work environment conditions changed radically about 20 years ago and that the effects are still apparent today. The results also show, however, that small, social enterprises continue to offer a better work environment than public facilities.     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF STRATEGIC PRICE SETTING IN ANTICIPATION OF PRICE REGULATION

A single product monopolist with constant unit costs, in a simple two-period model, is aware that price regulation will be imposed in the second period. The form of the regulation is such that price in period 2 may not exceed 100 ; per cent of price in period 1, where 0 < < 1. The period 1 price will be set higher than it would be in the absence of anticipated regulation. However, it is not always the case that pre-regulation price will be raised as falls. The welfare effects are crucially dependent on the form of the demand function. Under constant elasticity of demand a reduction in will reduce both consumers' and the producer's welfare. Under linear demand, consumers benefit and the producer loses as is reduced and the resultant effect on aggregate welfare is ambiguous.     

WELFARE ECONOMICS AND THE MEASUREMENT OF NNP*

Some relationships between NNP and economic welfare are explored in the confines of a simple, static welfare maximization model. Various assumptions concerning both the measurement of NNP and the economic system underlying this model are dropped seriatem and the implications for the correspondence between NNP and economic welfare are examined. The following conclusions emerge. There are several classes of resource reorganization in which NNP and welfare move in the same direction, so that NNP can serve as an ordinal proxy for welfare. These include changes in taxes or competitive imperfections which result in product substitution and movements along the transformation function. With a general qualification, NNP-welfare correspondence is preserved for allocative changes which affect the real costs and prices of goods included in NNP or of non-included goods in inelastic demand; changes in involuntary unemployment; and changes in technological externalities affecting producers. There are other cases where changes in NNP and welfare are not positively correlated. Included here are changes in real costs of non-included goods for which demand is elastic and changes in technological externalities imposed on consumers.