Fixed Exchange Rates and Banking Crises: When Does the Former Prevent the Latter?

Because monetary policy is constrained in fixed exchange rate regimes, banks should expect fewer money‐financed bailouts and therefore manage their risks more carefully when exchange rates are fixed than when they are flexible. It follows that we should observe fewer banking crises in countries with formal currency pegs. The 1990s however are littered with occurrences of banking crises in countries with fixed exchange rates. This paper asks whether banks in those countries could have adopted excess risk expecting money‐financed bailouts or whether their pegs discouraged such moral hazard‐type risks.     

银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks

Financial stability in Europe has received renewed attention with the advent of EMU. This paper examines whether EU country banking systems are particularly vulnerable to systemic risk. Our approach is to explore episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of countries, highlighting the experience of the EU. We estimate multivariate probit models linking the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics such as aspects of bank supervision and regulation, restrictions on bank portfolios, and development of the banking system. Given these characteristics, the model predicts a low probability of banking sector distress in EMU countries.
JEL classification : G 21; E 44; F 41     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

WILL GERMAN BANKS EARN THEIR COST OF CAPITAL?

In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyze the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. However, we show that this decline is alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves. We discuss how these income smoothing tools will provide a cushion that supports short‐ and medium‐term adjustments through a buffer effect. (JEL G21, G28)     

Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low‐Income Countries Special?

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low‐income countries? In this paper, we explore the channels through which the structure of banking markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study whether idiosyncratic volatility at the bank level can impact aggregate volatility. We find weak evidence for a link between granular banking sector volatility and macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, a higher share of domestic credit to GDP coincides with higher volatility in the short run. Third, a higher level of cross‐border asset holdings increases volatility in low‐income countries.     

Economic growth in South-eastern Europe: the role of the banking sector

This article analyses the relationship between banking sector efficiency and economic growth using a panel data analysis of six South-eastern European countries during the period 1995–2005. The analysis is concentrated on the banking sector because other segments of the financial market are underdeveloped in our sample of countries. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors by using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates as well as the share of non-performing loans. By applying the panel data method in a growth-type equation setting, we confirm that improvements in banking sector efficiency, measured through the decreasing interest rate spread, exerted a positive influence on the growth rate of the countries in the region.     

BANKING CONCENTRATION AND FIRM GROWTH: THE ROLE OF SIZE,LOCATION AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using conditional quantile regressions for a panel of listed firms from euro‐area countries in the 2005–11 period, we explore the impact of banking concentration on firm growth between smaller and larger firms; core and periphery countries; in pre‐crisis and post‐crisis years. Our findings reveal that increasing banking concentration favours high‐growth larger‐sized firms located in periphery countries pre‐crisis. By contrast in post‐crisis years increasing banking concentration impacts negatively on low‐growth smaller firms irrespective of location, revealing their vulnerability.     

Financial liberalization,disaggregated capital flows and banking crisis: Evidence from developing countries

The aim of this paper is to examine whether financial liberalization has triggered banking crises in some developing countries. We focus in particular on the role of capital flows as their volatilities threat economic stability and growth. In the empirical model, based on panel logit estimation, we use the two common financial liberalization indicators (defacto and dejure) for a panel of 58 developing countries observed during the period 1984–2007. Unlike the previous studies, this paper reveals that both indicators of financial liberalization did not trigger banking crises. However, the results show that foreign debt liabilities to total liabilities and foreign direct investment liabilities to total liabilities increase the likelihood of banking crises.     

Uncertainty avoidance and the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries, 1976–2004

Persistent differences in the level of business ownership across countries have attracted the attention of scientific as well as political debate. Cultural as well as economic influences are assumed to play a role. This paper deals with the influence of cultural attitudes towards uncertainty on the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries. First, the concepts of uncertainty and risk are elaborated, as well as their relevance for entrepreneurship. An occupational choice model is introduced to underpin our reasoning at the macro-level. Second, regression analysis using pooled macro data for 1976, 1990 and 2004 and controlling for several economic variables, yields evidence that uncertainty avoidance is positively correlated with the prevalence of business ownership. According to our model, a restrictive climate of large organizations in high uncertainty avoidance countries pushes individuals striving for autonomy towards self-employment. Regressions for these 3 years separately show that in 2004, this positive correlation is no longer found, indicating that a compensating pull of entrepreneurship in countries with low uncertainty avoidance may have gained momentum in recent years. Third, an interaction term between uncertainty avoidance and GDP per capita in the pooled panel regressions shows that the historical negative relationship between GDP per capita and the level of business ownership is substantially weaker for countries with lower uncertainty avoidance. This suggests that rising opportunity costs of self-employment play a less important role in this cultural environment, or are being compensated by increasing entrepreneurial opportunities.

Western Rules for Eastern Banking

The article outlines the most significant changes in the banking sector and traces its possible future path in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the context of competing banking models. The main conclusion is that despite the transition the orientation of the banking sector will be towards the government sector (including the central bank). The new network of financial interrelations that emerged during transition is characterised by the banking sector's significant net defensive position and creditor passivity. Although CEE countries are developing their financial systems in line with a universal banking model the aggregate balance sheets of their banking sectors reveal a structure that is more in line with other proposed models. Financial relations between households, the corporate sector and the state sector intermediated by the banking sector reveal a severe retreat of banks from the corporate sector in favour of maintenance of government and central bank operations.     

NONPRICE COMPETITION IN THE TURKISH CREDIT CARD MARKET

Attempts to explain high and sticky credit card rates have given rise to a vast literature on credit card markets. This article endeavors to explain the rates in the Turkish market using measures of nonprice competition. In this market, issuers compete monopolistically by differentiating their credit card products. The fact that consumers perceive credit cards and all other banking services as a bundle allows banks to also employ bank level characteristics to differentiate their credit cards. Thus, the features and service quality of banks are expected to affect credit card rates. Panel data estimations also control for various costs associated with credit card lending. The results show that nonprice competition variables have significant and robust effects on credit card rates. (JEL G21, G28, O16)     

混业经营条件下银行集中与效率--基于面板单位根与面板协整分析

基于亚洲国家的面板数据,运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究混业经营下银行集中与银行效率的关系.理论研究表明银行集中会带来两种相反作用的效应:规模经济和专业化经济,银行集中度提高所带来规模经济上升促进银行效率;相反专业化经济下降损害银行效率.实证分析(1)支持理论所表明的均衡关系,银行效率与银行集中等变量存在协整关系.(2)混业经营条件下,银行集中与银行效率有显著的正相关关系,规模经济效应大于专业化经济效应.因此混业条件下,提高银行效率必须寻求有效途径,加强竞争,适度提高商业银行的集中度.     

Competition Among Banks, Capital Requirements and International Spillovers

The design of prudential bank capital requirements interacts with the industrial organization of the banking sector, in particular, with the level of competition among banks. Increased competition leads to excessive risk-taking by banks which may have to be counteracted by tighter capital requirements. When capital requirements are internationally uniform but the levels of competition among banks in different countries are not, international spillovers arise on financial integration of these countries. This result begs a more careful analysis of the effect of financial liberalization on the stability of banking sectors in emerging countries. It also calls into question the merits of employing uniform capital requirements across countries that diverge in the industrial organization of their banking sectors.
(J.E.L.: G21, G28, G38, F36, E58, D62)     

Monetary Policy and Market Power in Banking

Applying a spatial competition model to banking, we analyze the effects of the choice of a monetary policy rule by the central bank on banks market power as measured by the Lerner index. We show that a procyclical monetary policy may reinforce the countercyclical movement of the Lerner index. That is, this measure of competitiveness of the banking sector may vary more over the business cycle due to the monetary policy rule.JEL classification: G21, E52, L13.Acknowledgements The author thanks Hans Degryse, Hans van Ees, Marco Haan, Eko Riyanto, Bert Schoonbeek, Elmer Sterken, three anonymous referees, and participants of the EARIE 2001 conference (Dublin), the NAKE Day 2002 (Amsterdam), and a seminar at Ghent University for their constructive comments.revised version received November 11, 2003     

Banks,Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.     

WHAT DETERMINES THE “LEGAL” QUALITY Of BANK REGULATION AND SUPERVISION?

This article has two contributions. First, using the methodology of Neyapti and Dincer, it provides measures of legal quality of bank regulation and supervision (RS) for a new set of developed and less‐developed countries. Second, it investigates the determinants of RS in view of the hypothesis that the existing institutional environment matters for the quality of formal institutions such as banking laws. The empirical evidence in this article demonstrates that past financial crises and prevailing levels of both financial market development and foreign direct investment inflows affect RS beyond and above the effects of other potential factors, such as macroeconomic performance and good governance. Evidence from transition economies also supports these findings. (JEL E44, G2, K29, O1)     

Life‐Cycle Patterns of Interest‐Rate Mark‐Ups in Small‐Firm Finance*

We derive empirical implications from a theoretical model of bank–borrower relationships. The interest‐rate mark‐ups of banks are predicted to follow a life‐cycle pattern over the age of the borrowing firms. Because of endogenous bank monitoring by competing banks, borrowing firms initially face a low mark‐up, and thereafter an increasing mark‐up as a result of informational lock‐in, until it falls for older firms when the lock‐in is resolved. By applying a large sample of predominantly small unlisted firms and a new measure of asymmetric information, we find that firms with significant asymmetric‐information problems have a more pronounced life‐cycle pattern of interest‐rate mark‐ups. Additionally, we examine the effects of concentrated banking markets on interest‐rate mark‐ups. The results indicate that the life cycle of mark‐ups is mainly driven by asymmetric‐information problems and not by concentration. However, we find evidence that bank market concentration matters for older firms ? 2 Correction added after online publication on 20^th February 2012; the original text read ‘However, we find evidence that bank market concentration for older firms’, omitting the word ‘matters’.