论债务重组

随着经济发展，企业财务状况可能会发生困难，导致现金流转不畅，出现暂时的资金短缺，在这种情况下，债务人、债权人通过相互协商，债权人作出某些让步，使债务人减轻负担，渡过难关，这便是债务重组。其重组方式分五种。第一，以低于债务的账面价值的现金清偿债务；第二以非现金资产清偿债务；第三，债务转为资本；第四，修改其他债务条件；第五，以上两种或多种方式的组合。无论何种重组方式，债务人、债权人均要作出相应的账务处理。     

Taxation,fiscal capacity,and credible commitment in eighteenth-century China: the effects of the formalization and centralization of informal surtaxes†

This article explores a tax reform in eighteenth-century China that formalized county-level informal surtaxes and centralized control over them in the hands of provincial governors, in an effort to strengthen provincial fiscal capacity. The findings show that this reform increased the frequency of famine relief in cases of exceptional disaster relative to other weather conditions. The study shows that the effects were driven by the new fiscal revenues—public funds—at the governors’ discretion, not by the central government's relief actions, bureaucratic control over lower officials, or other concurrent fiscal reforms. Moreover, the reform facilitated intertemporal smoothing and inter-regional risk sharing. However, the effects declined as soon as the central government broke its promise and began to appropriate provincial fiscal revenues. These findings not only provide evidence that fiscal centralization could enhance the provision of public goods in a premodern context, but also highlight that it was the lack of a credible commitment by the central government to the provincial governments that accounted for the short-lived effects of the reform.     

Creditors’ and Shareholders’ Reporting Demands in Public Versus Private Firms: Evidence from Europe*

In this study we investigate whether the importance of accounting information in contracting and communication with shareholders and creditors affects earnings timeliness in publicly disclosed general‐purpose financial statements. To operationalize the relationship between timeliness demands and the importance of accounting information to shareholders and creditors, we compare the (asymmetry in) earnings timeliness of public firms with that of private firms. We attribute public versus private firm differences in timeliness to shareholders’ demands when a country’s institutions provide strong investor protection. Similarly, we attribute these differences to creditors’ demands when the institutions provide strong creditor protection. Our analysis of public and private firms in 13 Western European countries suggests that creditors and shareholders have different timeliness demands. In particular, we find that the public versus private firm difference in asymmetric timeliness is not associated with a country’s degree of investor protection but positively associated with a country’s degree of creditor protection. The results further suggest that shareholders demand symmetric rather than asymmetric timeliness. An important implication of our study is that general‐purpose financial statements are responsive to creditors’ reporting demands, which contrasts with the idea that these — primarily private — creditors would use special‐purpose reports.     

制度范式下的中国农村金融制度变迁与改革路径研究

现阶段,由于我国的农村金融受到政府、金融机构和外部环境等多种力量的制约,表现出严重的金融抑制。主要表现为农村金融供给机制不健全,资源分配不公,正规金融供给不足,商业性金融在农村金融领域内的功能严重弱化,政策性金融功能不全,合作性金融由于自身条件的限制,难以适应农业和农村经济发展的新变化,非正规金融所具有的制度缺陷也严重影响了它金融支持作用的充分发挥。所有这一切,都需要从全新的视角来审视今天的农村金融制度安排,要从根源上把握农村金融制度创新的方向,创新农村金融制度,加速金融深化,推进农村金融市场良性发展。     

Loans of the revolution: how Mexico borrowed as the state collapsed in 1912–13

This article assesses why the French and US banks Paribas and Speyers underwrote a series of loans to revolutionary Mexico in 1912 and 1913, when the state was in the process of collapsing. This is a case of a war debt that failed to prevent the borrowing government from suspending payments and subsequently falling. Based on unpublished primary documents, the article shows that the 1913 loan involved a conflict of interest. The credit delayed a default and sustained the price of Mexican securities while Paribas, its main underwriter, was liquidating its Mexican portfolio. Evidence also suggests the existence of asymmetry of information. Paribas accessed pessimistic but accurate first‐hand information on Mexico, while the public read over‐optimistic press reports. Paribas forced the government to sell the bonds on the primary market at a price that was low, controlling for publicly available data. It subsequently sold the bonds at a margin on the secondary market. An additional reason for the lending is the Nacional railway, a state‐owned company that used a share of the funds to pay its debt. More exposed to Mexico than Paribas, the small and internationalized Speyers held the bad bonds it had underwritten.     

Disciplining the ‘black sheep of the Balkans’: financial supervision and sovereignty in Bulgaria, 1902–38

Using the example of Bulgaria, we argue that familiar models of international political economy fail to capture the tension between national sovereignty and access to capital markets experienced by peripheral debtors in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Existing accounts exaggerate the significance of the gold standard as a good housekeeping seal of approval and underestimate the role of direct financial controls. Furthermore, they underestimate the linkage in zones of inter‐imperial rivalry, such as the Balkans, between foreign borrowing and strategic alignment. We show how Bulgaria found its politics destabilized prior to 1914 by the demands of its creditors. After defeat in the First World War, Bulgaria was forced to submit to an even tighter system of creditor control. Though it obtained substantial debt relief during the 1930s, these concessions were gained not through an assertion of national sovereignty and default, but at the price of even closer supervision. This in turn casts new light on the conventional view of Bulgaria as a victim of Nazi ‘informal imperialism’. In light of Bulgaria's previous experience, the more striking feature of its trade relations with Hitler's Germany is that they were conducted on a basis of sovereign equality.     

ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS ALTRUISTICALLY MOTIVATED? THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA BEFORE AND DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using household panel data from Korea for 1995–98, this paper shows that private transfers of Korean households were altruistically motivated. Although the altruistic motive of households seemed to be reinforced during the financial crisis, the amount of private transfers was still not sufficient to support households living in urban areas. Also, there had been a strong crowding‐out relation between private and public transfers. This suggests that the Korean government should have designed its public transfer scheme carefully in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

湖南金融生态环境的现状与优化路径

和谐的金融生态环境对于区域经济和金融的发展具有重要的现实意义。近年来,湖南金融生态环境得到了一定改善,但还存在经济基础欠佳、地方金融发展滞后、信用中介市场发育缓慢、地方政府公共服务缺失等问题,因此,优化产业结构、加快地方金融发展、培育信用中介市场、完善地方政府公共服务等,对优化湖南金融生态环境,实现湖南经济与金融发展的良性互动至关重要。     

新疆农村医疗卫生事业供求状况的实证分析

改革开放以来新疆经济社会发生了巨大变化,但是主要依靠市场机制、实行经济效率优先的经济体制改革也造成了严重的社会经济发展的不均衡。特别是新疆农村医疗卫生事业的发展远远落后于城市,公共财政对农村医疗卫生的支持不足是重要因素。因此,通过对新疆农村医疗卫生财政支持现状的分析,可以为今后政府的公共决策提供依据和参考。     

日本灾后财政和债务前景展望

日本是发达经济体中财政赤字和政府债务负担最严重的国家。接二连三的欧洲主权债务危机和美国主权债务问题使市场不得不对日本是否将是下一个债务危机发生国产生隐忧。在2008年全球金融危机爆发前,日本的债务结构和低利率环境还可以使其维系高额的财政赤字和债务负担。然而2008年之后,在全球经济疲软和日本经济萎靡不振的背景下,日本处在了主权债务风险一直上升的阶段。更令日本祸不单行的是"3.11"大地震、海啸和核泄露事件,这一连串灾难更令日本在财政赤字和举债问题上如履薄冰。如果日本政府还不尽快实施有效的债务管理政策和可信的财政整顿计划,短期日本经济会难于运转,中长期日本将爆发主权债务危机。     

What we can learn from the early history of sovereign debt

Many people believe that the early development of sovereign debt depended on institutions, but there are two very different ways of presenting this narrative and two very different conclusions one might draw for sovereign debt today. According to the first, this was an impartial story involving executive constraints, shared governance, increased monitoring, and increased transparency — in other words things that sound unambiguously good. According to the second narrative this was a story of distributive politics. States had the best access to credit when institutions gave government creditors privileged access to decision making while restricting the influence of those who paid the taxes to reimburse debts. This was a situation where institutions fostered commitment, but at a cost, and sometimes they may not even have been welfare enhancing. In this paper I present evidence from seven centuries of European history, and I suggest that available data support the distributive politics interpretation. I then draw implications for how we think about the politics of sovereign debt today.     

Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM

Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID.     

State capacity and the socialist calculation debate

Despite its invaluable contribution to the field of comparative economics, the socialist calculation debate has focused on the narrow topic of the impossibility of the rational economic calculation under socialism. The literature on new institutional economics suggests that economic development is determined by economic and political institutions which are far more complex than the issue of economic calculation. To bridge the gap between the calculation debate and new institutional economics, this paper utilizes the historical case studies of Perestroika and Deng's China to demonstrate relationship between state capacity and economic calculation. We argue that rational economic calculation requires the state's institutional ability to make a credible commitment to constraints inhibiting public predation.     

2011年度上海企业竞争力调查报告

2011年国内外经济形势复杂多变,年底经济增长放缓,部分企业尤其是小微企业困难加大。为了解上海企业竞争力现状及企业家对未来发展的信心,了解他们对企业经营外部环境的评价、对宏观经济政策的看法以及进一步加快经济转型的意见和建议,为政府和企业决策提供参考依据,2011年11月至12月,上海企业竞争力研究中心组织实施了2011上海企业竞争力调查并完成此报告。调查显示,在当前偏紧的环境下,企业综合经营状况比2010年有所下滑,企业家对宏观经济的信心有所减弱;不少企业表示要积极应对困难和挑战,采取有效措施推动企业在压力下成长。同时,企业期待政府重视实体经济在经济发展中的作用,营造有利于促进企业持续创新发展的外部环境。     

Private borrowing during the financial revolution: Hoare's Bank and its customers, 1702–241

The financial revolution improved the British government's ability to borrow, and thus its ability to wage war. North and Weingast argued that it also permitted private parties to borrow more cheaply and widely. We test these inferences with evidence from a London bank. We confirm that private bank credit was cheap in the early eighteenth century, but we argue that it was not available widely. Importantly, the government reduced the usury rate in 1714, sharply reducing the circle of private clients that could be served profitably.     

Greece’s Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area

Against the backdrop of the Greek three-act tragedy, we present a theoretical framework for studying Greece’s recent debt and currency crisis. The model is built on two essential blocks: first, erratic macroeconomic policymaking in Greece is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model’s mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area or, conversely, the avoidance of Greece’s default against its creditors. The model also offers useful guidance to understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Greek government and the “institutions”.     

中国地方政府债务违约风险评估——基于债务可持续性分析框架

结合中国地方政府财政反应特征,文章在债务可持续性分析框架中,首次识别了基础盈余主动调整的有效性条件作为分析前提,进而完善了债务不可持续性的定义内涵和度量方法,最终建立了地方政府债务违约风险评估模型。凭借此模型,对中国地方政府债务违约风险进行了评估,主要结论如下:在经济增速不稳定背景下,施行顺周期财政政策的中国地方政府,容易落入基础盈余主动调整无效的境况,因而在对地方政府债务可持续性进行分析时,有必要考虑基础盈余主动调整的有效性;通过检验发现,新构造的债务不可持续概率和条件期望债务空间指标,均能较好反映地方政府债务违约风险,而单纯的债务率指标对地方政府债务违约风险无解释力;在2019年,天津、贵州和青海等地已处于财政疲劳引起的债务不可持续状态,内蒙古等六省的条件期望债务空间不足20%,其余省份的条件期望债务空间仍相对充裕;最后,通过考察债务可持续性的改善渠道又进一步发现,财政透明度的提高可有效降低地方政府债务违约风险。     

Restructuring Indonesia's sub-national public debt: reform or reversion?

Borrowing can be an efficient way for sub-national governments to acquire capital assets, but it also carries risks of fiscal distress and insolvency for borrowers. To minimise these risks, many governments around the world have developed ex-post insolvency remedies, including, most importantly, debt-restructuring mechanisms. In an effort to resurrect borrowing for local infrastructure development, the Indonesian government has designed and begun to implement debt-restructuring programs for sub-national government and sub-national government-owned water supply company defaulters. These programs constitute a major effort to reform an important, long-neglected and problematic aspect of sub-national public finances in Indonesia. There are a number of potential difficulties with the design and execution of the reforms, however, which collectively do not inspire much optimism for rapid progress in reviving financial flows to the sub-national public sector. Still, even halting advances in debt restructuring can substantially increase local infrastructure investment in the long run.     

我国农村小额信贷市场发展困境及对策

农村小额信贷的发展为农村几亿贫困农民带来了希望。农村小额信贷市场的发展依赖于农民、金融组织和政府的积极有效的配合和协作,然而,在我国这种局面并未形成。农民、金融组织和政府在农村小额信贷市场上各自遭遇着发展困境,阻碍了农村小额信贷市场的发展。从农民、金融机构和政府三个方面同时下手,积极处理发展中的问题。才能更好的推动小额信贷的发展。     

债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。