Regional wage convergence in Spain 1850–1930

This paper presents a new regional database on real wages for Spain from 1850 to 1930. This evidence is used to analyze the evolution of wages across regions and occupations. Substantial wage convergence occurred from 1850 to 1914, despite low rates of internal migration. World War I and the subsequent globalization backlash were associated with a spectacular increase in wage differentials. However, real wage convergence across Spanish provinces resumed during the 1920s, this time accompanied by high rates of internal migration.     

The rise and fall of deficit in Japan, 1965–1990

This paper investigates the fifteen-year period when the Japanese government deficit (defined as the deficit bond issues to the general budget) rose sharply and shrank to zero. Our main contribution is to differentiate the budget “plan” and the “actual” (ex post) budget in order to distinguish intention and surprise. From 1976 to 1979, deficit bonds were considered to be deliberately increased, because of little surprise (deviations of actual from planned budget) in deficits for these years. The deficit ratio was brought down in the 1980s, mainly by freezing expenditures at the nominal level and waiting for bracket creeps in taxes to catch up. Beyond a trend increase in the 1970s and a trend decrease in the 1980s, the Japanese government acted to pursue a fiscal expenditure fine-tuning.     

Rural labour markets and rural conflict in Spain before the Civil War (1931–6)1

This article looks at the causes of rural conflict in 1930s Spain. Rather than stressing bottom‐up forces of mobilization linked to poor harvests and rural unemployment or the inability of the state to enforce reformist legislation, this article explores the role of state policy in sorting out the acute coordination and collective action problems of mobilizing rural labourers. This is done by looking at the effects of intervention on rural labour markets in dry‐farming areas of Spain (parts of Castile and of Andalusia). Given the difficulties of constructing a conclusive test of the hypothesis, three indirect testing strategies are used. The first is an examination of the qualitative evidence on the functioning of labour markets in dry‐farming areas of Spain. Second, because the argument presented in this article implies the existence of severe restrictions on the labour supply of rural labourers during the harvest in the early 1930s, harvest‐to‐winter wage ratios before and after the passing of legislation are studied. Finally, the diffusion of union offices and general strikes in several dry‐farming provinces of Spain is examined, in order to show that alternative hypotheses to explain rural conflict are not consistent with the historical record.     

The rise and decline of European parliaments, 1188–17891

This article quantifies the activities of medieval and early modern parliaments. It traces the long‐term evolution of this European institution, and offers a first pass at analysing its impact on long‐term economic development. Starting in Spain in the twelfth century, parliaments gradually spread over the Latin west between 1200 and 1500. In the early modern period, parliaments declined in influence in southern and central Europe and further gained in importance in the Netherlands and Britain, resulting in an institutional ‘Little Divergence’ between 1500 and 1800. We discuss the background of this phenomenon in detail. Moreover, by analysing the effects of parliamentary activity on city growth we find that these differences in institutional development help to explain the economic divergence between north‐western and southern and central Europe.     

Economic freedom in the long run: evidence from OECD countries (1850–2007)

This article presents historical indices for the main dimensions of economic freedom and an aggregate index for the developed countries of today, specifically pre‐1994 OECD members. Economic liberty expanded over the last century‐and‐a‐half, reaching more than two‐thirds of its possible maximum. However, its evolution has been far from linear. After a substantial improvement from the mid‐nineteenth century, the First World War brought a major setback. The postwar recovery up to 1929 was followed by a dramatic decline in the 1930s. Significant progress took place during the 1950s but fell short of the pre‐First World War peak. After a period of stagnation, steady expansion since the early 1980s has resulted in the highest levels of economic liberty of the last two centuries. Each of the main dimensions of economic freedom exhibited a distinctive trend and its contribution to the aggregate index varied over time. Overall, improved property rights provided the main contribution to the long‐run advancement of economic liberty.     

Patterns of infant mortality in rural England and Wales, 1850–1910†

The study of nineteenth‐century infant mortality in Britain has neglected the rural dimension to a surprising degree. This article maps the change in infant mortality rate (IMR) between the 1850s and the 1900s at registration district (RD) level. Latent trajectory analysis, a longitudinal model‐based clustering method, is used to identify the clusters into which rural RDs fell, based on their IMR trajectories. Relationships between IMR and population density, fertility, female tuberculosis mortality, female illiteracy, male agricultural wages, and distance from London are examined in a longitudinal study. The tuberculosis (maternal health), illiteracy (education), and distance variables had the most effect. IMR responded most strongly to improving health and education in the east, less in the central area, and least in the north and west. The eastern zone's higher‐than‐average mid‐century infant mortality therefore declined faster than the national average. A central and southern zone had slightly lower IMR in mid‐century but did not keep up with the rate of decline in the east. The peripheral north and west had the lowest mid‐century rates but their decline was overtaken by the other zones. The interpretation of these findings and their relevance to the wider study of infant mortality are discussed.     

Innovation and Productivity Advances in British Agriculture: 1620–1850

Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic development. This article examines the extent to which productivity advances in British agriculture during the period 1620–1850 were driven by technological progress. Measuring technology by patents and new book titles on agricultural methods, the results are consistent with endogenous growth theory, indicating that technological progress has played a significant role in agricultural productivity advances.