Why Do the Rich Save More? A Theory and Australian Evidence*

We provide a theory to explain the existence of inequality in an economy where agents have identical preferences and have access to the same production technology. Agents consume a ‘health’ good which determines their subjective discount factor. Depending on initial distribution of capital the economy gets separated into different permanent‐income groups. This leads to a testable hypothesis: ‘The rich save a larger proportion of their permanent‐income’. We test this implication for savings behaviour in Australia. We find that even after controlling for lifecycle and health characteristics, higher permanent income is positively related with higher savings rates and better saving habits.     

Over-savings and hyperbolic discounting

Hyperbolic discounting models are widely seen as implying that consumers do not save enough, in accordance with the observed low rates of savings of some households. This paper qualifies this view by showing that hyperbolic consumers may ‘oversave’ in the short run. The result extends to uncertainty on future income and does not depend on whether preferences are present-biased or future-biased. A generalized comparative statics analysis of self-control is introduced, and its relationship to the analysis of uncertainty on discount factors is emphasized.     

UNPREPARED FOR FINANCIAL SHOCKS: EMERGENCY SAVINGS AND CREDIT CARD DEBT

We measure readiness to face emergency expenses using data from a representative survey of U.S. consumers. Our main findings are as follows: (1) there is substantial heterogeneity in financial readiness, with lowest‐income, least‐educated, unemployed, and Black consumers most likely to have $0 saved for emergency expenses; (2) the amount of emergency savings is correlated with payment choice: Less financially prepared individuals use cash more and credit cards less, compared to those with higher emergency savings; (3) while people with low emergency savings rely more on cash than credit cards, they revolve more debt, and so a financial shock is costlier for them; (4) changes in income from one year to the next do not appear to affect the likelihood of revolving on credit cards or increase the amount borrowed, although the data were collected before the COVID‐19 pandemic. For those with little or no savings and already financially vulnerable, even a temporary financial shock—an unexpected negative income shock (such as a layoff or a short‐term government shutdown) or an unexpected expenditure (such as a medical expense or a car repair)—could have severe financial consequences, exacerbated by the high cost of borrowing on credit cards. (JEL D12, D14, D15, E21)     

TAXES,INCOME, AND RETIREMENT SAVINGS: DIFFERENCES BY PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY INCOME

This article examines the determinants of and benefits from saving for retirement in tax‐preferred accounts by permanent and transitory income levels. We find that higher incomes (both permanent and transitory) are associated with a greater probability to contribute and larger contributions. We also find that tax benefits for retirement savings increase strongly with income, although the increase is slightly smaller when taxpayers are ranked by their permanent (rather than current) income. In addition, we find that a large portion of the benefits from the Saver's Credit go to taxpayers who would not be eligible based on their permanent income. Finally, we find that recent tax changes (including the introduction of the Saver's Credit) significantly increased contributions among low‐income households, although the effect was centered among those with only transitorily low income. (JEL H24, H31, E21)     

TOP INCOMES AND NATIONAL SAVINGS

The relationship between income inequality and national savings is theoretically ambiguous, and past empirical studies have delivered mixed results. We revisit the question using a newly available source of data on inequality: the income share of the richest 10 percent and the richest 1 percent. Combining this with historical data on national savings rates, we are able to investigate the relationship for 11 developed countries over the period 1921–2002. We find no consistent relationship between lagged top income shares and current savings rates, and our standard errors are small enough that we are able to reject more than modest effects in either direction. We view this as suggesting that inequality at the top end of the distribution is not a major driver of national savings rates.     

Australian Family Tax Reform and the Targeting Fallacy

Over recent decades, Australia's highly progressive, individual‐based taxation of families has been replaced by a system that tends towards joint taxation with an inverted U‐shaped rate scale. The reform has been implemented by introducing family‐income‐targeted child payments (now Family Tax Benefit Part A) and by lowering tax rates on higher incomes. The new system has shifted the burden of taxation to two‐earner families on low and average wages and, in particular, to working married mothers as second earners. For reasons of fairness and efficiency, we propose returning to more progressive individual taxation and universal family payments.     

Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation

We use a laboratory experiment to elicit discount rates over a 20-year time horizon using government savings bonds as a payment vehicle. When using a constant (exponential) discount rate function, we find an implied average discount rate of 4.9 %, which is much lower than has been found in previous experimental studies that used time horizons of days or months. However, we also find strong support for non-constant, declining discount rates for longer time horizons, with an extrapolated implied annual discount rate approaching 0.5 % in 100 years. There is heterogeneity in discount rates and risk preferences in that people with more optimistic beliefs about technological progress have higher discount rates. These findings contribute to the debate over the appropriate discount rate to use in comparing the long-term benefits of climate change mitigation to the more immediate costs.     

Do the Rich Save More? Evidence from Canada

This paper provides new evidence on the long‐standing question of whether more affluent households save a larger fraction of their income. The major difficulty in empirically assessing the relationship between incomes and saving rates is to construct a credible proxy for long‐run income—purged of transitory fluctuations and measurement error. The Canadian Family Expenditure Survey provides us with both unusually good data on savings rates and potential predictors with which we can construct reliable long‐run income proxies. Our empirical analysis suggests that the estimated relationship between saving rates and long‐run incomes is sensitive to the predictor used to proxy long‐run income. Nevertheless, our preferred estimates indicate that, except for poorest households (who simply do not save), saving rates do not differ substantially across predicted long‐run income groups.     

The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution

While it is common to use income uncertainty to explain household saving decisions, there is much disagreement about the importance of precautionary saving. This paper suggests that income uncertainty is not an important motive for saving, although households do have other precautionary reasons to save. Using a question from the Survey of Consumer Finances that asks how much households want for precautionary purposes, this paper shows that expressed household preferences, and liquid savings, are much lower than predicted by standard modeling assumptions. Households rarely list unemployment as a reason to save. Perceived income uncertainty does not affect liquid savings or precautionary preferences. Neither does being in an occupation with higher income volatility. Instead, households seem very concerned with expenditure shocks.     

Determinants of household savings in China and their role in quasi‐money supply1

This study derives household saving potential empirically from econometric models of Chinese urban and rural household consumption and uses this potential to explain household bank deposits. Model simulations are performed to analyse the effects of interest rates, income and income uncertainty on the saving potential and the bank deposits. The bank deposits variable is then used to explain quasi‐money supply. High bank absorption of household savings is found to account mainly for the rapid growth in quasi‐money, which in turn explains the exceptionally high M2/GDP ratio. Households’ savings are largely predictable from their regular consumption.     

居民储蓄-准货币之主源

该文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系.该文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型,建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系,用以推算居民的储蓄潜力.再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额,最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分.建模试验结果表明,居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性,而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系.该文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响,做了各种模拟试验.     

为结婚而储蓄?——来自中国家庭追踪调查①(CFPS)的经验证据

已有研究主要基于性别比失衡的竞争性储蓄动机解释了中国家庭的高储蓄之谜.文章把子女结婚这一自然事件作为处理变量,通过婚前和婚后的家庭储蓄变化识别出"婚姻效应",为竞争性储蓄动机理论和中国家庭的高储蓄之谜提供了微观证据.研究结果发现,在控制个人以及家庭特征后,相对于已婚家庭,未婚家庭储蓄显著更高.在排除地区性差异、教育储蓄动机、预防性储蓄动机和样本匹配等问题之后,未婚比已婚家庭具有更高储蓄水平的结论依然稳健.文章进一步分析识别出了城市和农村异质"婚姻效应"和婚后消费结构的变化,发现"婚姻效应"对不同收入水平的家庭都产生了影响,但"婚姻效应"对低收入家庭的消费抑制更为明显.文章的研究结果丰富了婚姻市场的竞争性储蓄动机理论.     

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity. We show that culture is an important factor for households’ borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences. Countries with higher scores on the Hofstede dimension of long-term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity. Time preferences incur a primarily mediating role, because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced, as the long-term discount factor δ increases.     

TURNPIKE PROPERTIES OF A MONEY‐IN‐THE‐UTILITY‐FUNCTION MODEL*

This study establishes the global stability of a long‐run stationary state in a money‐in‐the‐utility‐function model. The major finding is that the constant money supply rule results in a stable allocation and price system if consumers discount their future utilities sufficiently weakly. Nominal and real interest rates will be in the neighbourhood of the inverse of the consumers’ discount factor β^‐1.     

The Living Standards of the Low Income Self-Employed

Poverty and inequality measurement in Australia has typically excluded the self-employed because of concerns about a weak relationship between their measured incomes and their standard of living. At the same time, however, families containing self-employed individuals receive substantial income support. Is this support well targeted? This paper compares the living standards of low income self-employed and employee families using data from the ABS 1993–94 Household Expenditure Survey. The use of expenditure data for the measurement of living standards poses particular methodological problems, for which some new solutions are proposed. The paper concludes that the average living standards of low income self-employed families and of self-employed families receiving additional family payments are higher than those of comparable employee families. On the other hand, a greater proportion of self-employed families have low consumption levels.     

The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy

We use the Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze changes in U.S. household debt between 1989 and 2013. We focus on how income and debt levels have changed, and what this means for future economic growth and living standards. Prior to the Great Recession, U.S. households had record high debt levels and record low savings rates. Highly leveraged consumption boosted economic growth. However, large debt burdens have led many families to deleverage. Our study finds that deleveraging has been insufficient. Although debt payments have fallen relative to household income, this is mainly due to low interest rates. Debt levels, especially for home mortgages, remain high by historical standards and portend continued stagnation due to lower consumer spending.     

Decreasing Impatience: A Criterion for Non‐stationary Time Preference and "Hyperbolic" Discounting

Despite recent interest in hyperbolic discounting, there has been little discussion of exactly what property of time preferences is instantiated by hyperbolic or quasi‐hyperbolic functional forms. The paper revives an earlier proposal in Prelec (1989) that the key property is Pratt–Arrow convexity of the log of the discount function, which corresponds to decreasing impatience(DI) at the level of preferences. DI provides a natural criterion for assessing the severity of departure from stationarity in that greater DI is equivalent to more choices of dominated options in two‐stage decision problems, as well as greater convexity of the log of the discount function. Inefficient choices may arise as intentional precommitments, or as unintended reversals of preference by “naïve” agents.     

Conditions for Sustainable Optimal Economic Development

This paper shows that, for dynamic optimizing economies with different types of natural resource, environmental, and human‐made capital stocks, a necessary and sufficient condition for permanently sustaining an optimal utility/consumption level is the stationarity of the current‐value Hamiltonian. For economies whose development is not exogenously and directly affected by time (i.e., time‐autonomous economies), this stationarity condition generalizes Dixit et al.’s (1980 ) “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” rule of sustain‐ability, which in turn generalizes Solow‐Hartwick’s sustainability rule. For non‐autonomous economies, the stationarity condition is not generally fulfilled, and the current‐value Hamiltonian under (over) estimates the true welfare level by an amount equal to the discounted value of the net “pure time effect.” For the non‐autonomous case of a time‐dependent utility discount rate, a general condition on the discount rate function (of which the hyperbolic discount rate function is a special case) upholds the results obtained for autonomous cases. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies that promote both optimality and sustainability objectives.     

A Socio‐Economic Profile of Families in the First Wave of the Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children

‘Footprints in time’, the Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children (LSIC), has been developed to provide insights into how Indigenous children's early years affect their development. Socio‐economic factors are at the core of many analyses of child development and well‐being and this article provides a socio‐economic profile of Indigenous families in the first wave of the LSIC. Utilising 12 indicators that are organised into three groups—primary carer, family income and financial stress—the article provides an extensive overview of the full range of socio‐economic data available in the LSIC. The article examines whether, when taken together, the different indicators tell a consistent story. It finds that, broadly, they do. The article raises some issues about the reporting of certain government payments and highlights the importance of family size when looking at family income. The article concludes by pointing to the potential for future research that these data present.     

Parental Wealth and the Black–White Mobility Gap in the U.S.

Utilizing longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), this paper examines the relationship between parental wealth and intergenerational income mobility for black and white families. I find that total parental wealth is positively associated with upward mobility for low‐income white families, but is not associated with reduced likelihood of downward mobility for white families from the top half of the income distribution. Conversely, I find that total parental wealth does not have the same positive association for low‐income black families, while home ownership may have negative associations with the likelihood of upward mobility for these families. However, for black families from the top half of the income distribution, home equity is associated with a decreased likelihood of downward mobility, suggesting a heterogeneous relationship between home ownership and mobility for black families.