Is Timing Everything? Race,Homeownership and Net Worth in the Tumultuous 2000s

We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate how net worth was affected among low‐ and moderate‐income households who became first‐time homebuyers at different points during the volatile 2000s. We address selection using propensity score matching and estimating difference‐in‐difference models, and use quantile regressions to account for the skew in net worth outcomes. Results highlight the significance of race in the relationship between first‐time home buying and net worth during the decade. Although timing was critical to the short‐term trajectory of net worth for whites, total net worth declines for black first‐time homebuyers regardless of economic climate. The most dramatic differences between black and white new homebuyers is their neighborhood locations, with blacks purchasing in predominantly black neighborhoods with lower housing prices and price appreciation, and lower and declining rates of homeownership.     

Risk Segmentation of American Homes: Evidence from Denver

This article empirically examines the segmentation of house price risk across 99 ZIP‐code‐delineated neighborhoods in metropolitan Denver. The house price risk in each neighborhood is measured with the temporal variation of quarterly appreciation rates of the neighborhood house price index over the 2002–2007 period. Cross‐sectional regressions of neighborhood house price risk on the median household income and the percentage of population in poverty from the 2000 census data for the same neighborhoods provide strong evidence that the house price risk is significantly higher in low‐income/poor neighborhoods. Subperiod analyses further indicate that the risk segmentation exists in both a booming period (pre 2005:2) and a busting period (post 2005:3). The results indicate that homeownership can be a much riskier investment for low‐income/poor households.     

The Incidence of the Land Use Regulatory Tax

Land use regulation has been found to impose a substantial tax on housing within select U.S. metropolitan areas. In this article, we develop hypotheses regarding the incidence of this tax by income class and racial group within these areas. Parcel‐level data from Miami‐Dade County, Florida, are used to test our hypotheses. We find that, while the tax rises with a household's permanent income, this rise is less than proportional, making it a regressive tax. We also find, controlling for household permanent income, that the tax is a higher percentage of the price of homes located in black neighborhoods in comparison to those located in white or Hispanic neighborhoods.     

Amenity‐Based Housing Affordability Indexes

The recent slump notwithstanding, substantial increases in house prices in many parts of the United States have served to highlight housing affordability for moderate‐income households, especially in high‐cost, supply‐constrained coastal cities such as Boston. In this article, we develop a new measure of area affordability that characterizes the supply of housing that is affordable to different households in different locations of a metropolitan region. Key to our approach is the explicit recognition that the price/rent of a dwelling is affected by its location. Hence, we develop an affordability methodology that accounts for job accessibility, school quality and safety. This allows us to produce a menu of town‐level indexes of adjusted housing affordability. The adjustments are based on obtaining implicit prices of these amenities from a hedonic price equation. We thus use data from a wide variety of sources to rank 141 towns in the greater Boston metropolitan area based on their adjusted affordability. Taking households earning 80% of area median income as an example, we find that consideration of town‐level amenities leads to major changes relative to a typical assessment of affordability.     

Supermarket contracts and smallholder farmers: Implications for income and multidimensional poverty

Food systems in developing countries are changing rapidly with a growing role of modern supermarkets. Supermarkets influence supply chains and the way agricultural products are sourced from farmers. Especially for the procurement of fresh fruits and vegetables, supermarkets often contract farmers directly to ensure consistent and high-quality supply. One important question, which is addressed here, is whether smallholder farmers benefit from supermarket contracts. Previous studies address this question, but mostly focus on income effects without exploring implications for other dimensions of household welfare, such as nutrition, health, or housing conditions. Moreover, most existing studies rely on cross-section data. We add to the literature by analyzing effects of supermarket contracts on income and multidimensional poverty using three rounds of panel data collected from smallholder vegetable farmers in Kenya and econometric models with household fixed effects. On average, supermarket contracts increase household income by over 40%. We also find significant reductions in income poverty and multidimensional poverty. Quantile regressions show that farmers in all income groups benefit, but richer households benefit more than poorer ones in absolute terms. However, supermarket contracts cause the strongest reductions in multidimensional deprivations among the poorest households.     

The Variation of Homeowner Tax Preferences by Income, Age and Leverage

It is well known that owner-occupied housing has long received favorable tax treatment in the U.S. federal income tax system relative to a system in which all income, regardless of its source, is subject to taxation. As a result, many economists have argued that the United States overinvests in owner-occupied housing relative to the investment that would result from a neutral income tax system. In addition, the distribution of the subsidy is often viewed as inequitable because high-income households receive the largest subsidy per dollar of housing. This article uses the 2005 American Housing Survey, conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, to perform a microlevel analysis of the current magnitude and distribution of homeowner tax preferences. We then assess how the magnitude and distribution of tax preferences would be altered by replacement of the mortgage interest deduction with a 15% credit.     

Gracing the Land of Elvis and Beale Street: Historic Designation and Property Values in Memphis

We analyze appreciation rates across comparable designated and undesignated neighborhoods in Memphis, Tennessee. Using appreciation rates potentially nullifies the objection to using assessed values in such an analysis while also mitigating some of the bias inherent in the differences between otherwise similar designated and undesignated neighborhoods. Nonetheless, in accord with the previous studies, after controlling for numerous housing characteristics, we find that properties in neighborhoods designated historical by the Memphis Landmarks Commission had appreciation rates above those in other similar neighborhoods. We also find that new properties benefit as much, perhaps even more, than older properties from being in a historic district.     

The burgeoning role of iBuyers in the housing market

We examine the iBuyers’ business model and their impact on housing markets. We find that iBuyers tend to enter neighborhoods that have more easily priced and homogeneous homes, as price discovery is simpler and more consistent with their pricing algorithm in those areas. iBuyers purchase homes at lower prices than individual owner-occupiers, and this acquisition discount reflects the benefits iBuyers offer to motivated sellers rather than distressed home purchases or unobserved lower-quality housing characteristics. Last, a greater presence of iBuyers results in a higher volume of local housing transactions and encourages more home sellers to sell without listing.     

The Postforeclosure Experience of U.S. Households

Despite the recent flood of foreclosures on residential mortgages, little is known about what happens to borrowers’ households after their mortgages have been foreclosed. We study the postforeclosure experience of U.S. households using a unique data set based on the credit reports of a large panel of individuals from 1999 to 2010. Although foreclosure considerably raises the probability of moving, the majority of postforeclosure migrants do not end up in substantially less desirable neighborhoods or more crowded living conditions. These results suggest that, on average, foreclosure does not impose an economic burden large enough to severely reduce housing consumption.     

Income, Location and Default: Some Implications for Community Lending

This paper investigates differences in default losses across income groups and neighborhoods, in an effort to see if there are significant differences between default experience on loans to low-income households or low-income neighborhoods and other loans. We find that while defaults and losses are somewhat higher in low-income neighborhoods, default behavior is similar in the sense that responses to negative equity are similar across neighborhoods, and remaining differences are small and might be explained by omitted variables such as those measuring credit history.     

Rates of Return on Housing of Low-and Moderate-Income Owners

While long-term returns to capital invested in owner-occupied housing have been competitive with other investment alternatives, no evidence exists on the market performance of the owner-occupied housing in which low- and moderate-income households would be most likely to invest. This article thus attempts to answer the question of whether the "affordable housing units" that are relevant to policy discussions concerning low- and moderate-income homeownership have experienced different rates of price appreciation than have higher valued dwellings. The national file of the American Housing Survey is used to estimate appreciation rates by value class in representative U.S. housing markets. We find that for the period 1974 through 1983 appreciation rates for lower valued housing were generally about equal to those for higher valued housing.     

Immigration,Capital Flows and Housing Prices

Research on immigration and real estate has found that immigrants lower house prices in immigrant destination neighborhoods. In this article, we find that this latter result is not globally true. Rather, we show that immigrants can raise neighborhood house prices, at least in the case of the wealthy immigrants that we study. We exploit a surprise suspension and subsequent closure of a popular investor immigration program in Canada to use a difference‐in‐differences methodology comparing wealthy immigrant destination census tracts to nondestination tracts. We find that the unexpected suspension of the program had a negative impact on house prices of 1.7–2.6% in the neighborhoods and market segments most favored by the investor immigrants. This leads to an approximate lower bound on the effect of capital inflows of 5%.     

The power of the vegetable patch: How home-grown food helps large rural households achieve economies of scale & escape poverty

This paper explores how the household’s capacity to grow food impacts their ability to achieve economies of scale in food consumption and how this impacts the geographic distribution of poverty across rural and urban areas. An accurate understanding of consumption economies of scale is vital for comparing poverty levels across households of varying size. Using Sri Lankan data on home-grown food consumption, we empirically confirm that such economies of scale exist and that large households tend to consume relatively more home-grown food than smaller households. The magnitude of these scale economies are found to be larger than those in market purchased food, but smaller than those found in housing expenditure. Consuming more home-grown food is also found to be positively correlated with per-capita calories consumed. Taking these effects into account in poverty estimates leads to a 15 per cent decline in the number of household who fall below the poverty line in rural regions.     

Another Look at the Economics of Demand-Side Versus Supply-Side Strategies in Low-Income Housing

This paper presents evidence of the relative efficiency of a particular variant of demand-side housing strategy vis-a-vis the supply-side Section 8 New Construction program. The model is cast explicitly in terms of theory of consumer behavior, allowing the estimation of price subsidy rates under the demand-side strategy, that would yield the same welfare improvement as the Section 8 program. The results indicate that neither the latter strategy nor the former clearly dominates in terms of traditional goals of low-income housing policy. The increases in housing consumption induced by the demand-side strategy, while less than those from the supply-side strategy, are significant, and are accompanied by substantial reductions in housing affordability problems (rent burdens). It is shown that anywhere from .63 to 2.16 additional households could have been served for each household served under the Section 8 program, with the demand-side strategy, at no additional cost to the taxpayer.     

Housing Tenure Choice in Australia and the United States: Impacts of Alternative Subsidy Policies

This article compares the homeownership rates of young households in Australia and the United States and evaluates the impacts of the two countries' different approaches to subsidizing homeownership. Since about 1950, Australia's rate of homeownership has consistently been higher than that of the United States. The homeownership rate for young adults is also significantly higher in Australia. While the United States allows mortgage interest and property taxes to be deducted from income for tax purposes, Australia has provided cash subsidies for down payments and mortgage payments. We conclude that differences in housing costs and household characteristics do not explain differences in ownership rates. We also conclude that differences in subsidy policies have only a minor impact on ownership rates.     

Do the urban poor face higher food prices? Evidence from Vietnam

Whether there is a poverty penalty, in terms of food prices, is unsettled in the literature after more than four decades of study. Unit values from household surveys suggest that prices vary with income while outlet surveys typically find food prices varying with store type but not with neighborhood income. Most outlet surveys are from rich countries, with just one spatially limited study from a developing country. In this paper we use especially collected food price data from metropolitan areas of Vietnam to test whether the urban poor face higher food prices. Food prices in low-income neighborhoods are 1% lower, on average, than in other neighborhoods. Unit values give a different answer to the question of whether the poor face higher prices and are not suited to answer such a question.     

Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later: Alternative Mortgage Products and the Mortgage Crisis

Mortgage contract design has been identified as a contributory factor in the recent market crisis. Here we examine alternative mortgage products (including interest‐only and other deferred amortization structures) and develop a game theoretic model of contract choice given uncertain future income and house prices across different types of borrowers. Results imply that deferred amortization contracts are more likely to be selected in housing markets with greater expected price appreciation and by households with greater risk tolerance; moreover, such products necessarily entail greater default risk, especially among lower‐income households who are aggressive in housing consumption levels. Empirical tests of model predictions generally provide support for the theory.     

Price Expectations,Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect

Using a unique combination of regulatory and survey microdata, we examine the importance of the life cycle theory of consumption in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. Since the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be important in influencing housing wealth effects. We find a positive correlation between consumption and changes in housing wealth among our sample of mortgaged Irish households. Furthermore, we find that this positive association only exists when housing wealth changes are perceived to be of a permanent nature.     

Government fertilizer subsidy and commercial sector fertilizer demand: Evidence from the Federal Market Stabilization Program (FMSP) in Nigeria

We examine how the previous fertilizer subsidy program in Nigeria (FMSP) affected the demand for commercial fertilizer. We apply an endogenous double hurdle model to a pseudo-panel and cross-section data of farm households. The methodology accounts for potential endogeneity of commercial fertilizer price with subsidy. Our specification is also appropriate where few farmers report the use of both subsidized and commercial fertilizer. We find that 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer supplied to a farm household reduced the probability of its participation into commercial fertilizer market by 10–21% points, while not affecting fertilizer use upon participation.     

Impact of off-farm income on food security and nutrition in Nigeria

While the poverty implications of off-farm income have been analyzed in different developing countries, much less is known about the impact of off-farm income on household food security and nutrition. Here, this research gap is addressed by using farm survey data from Nigeria. Econometric analyses are employed to examine the mechanisms through which off-farm income affects household calorie and micronutrient supply, dietary quality, and child anthropometry. We find that off-farm income has a positive net effect on food security and nutrition. The prevalence of child stunting, underweight, and wasting is lower in households with off-farm income than in households without. Using a structural model, we also show that off-farm income contributes to higher food production and farm income by easing capital constraints, thus improving household welfare in multiple ways.