Examining the Interaction between Saving and Contributions to Personal Pension Plans: Evidence from the BHPS*

This paper analyses the effects of social security reforms on saving in Britain. We use the British Household Panel Survey to investigate the interactions between voluntary additional contributions to personal pension plans (PPP) and saving in conventional forms. In particular, we test whether contributions to the PPP crowd out saving or constitute additional saving. Results suggest that not only have private pension schemes not crowded out private saving, but actually they have increased it too.     

Inequality for Wage Earners and Self‐Employed: Evidence from Panel Data*

In this paper we highlight the importance of analysing the evolution of income inequality separately for employees and self‐employed workers. Using Spanish panel data on income and consumption for the period 1987–96, we find noticeable differences across these groups in the evolution of income inequality, and in the relative importance of the transitory and permanent components of income variance. The evolution of inequality is mainly explained by movements in the transitory component for the self‐employed and by the permanent component for the employees. Our results suggest that different policies should be implemented for each group.     

House Price Shocks,Windfall Gains and Hours of Work: British Evidence*

Do workers adjust hours of work in response to capital gains and losses? This paper investigates this question using British panel data on individual employees from 1992 to 2001. It investigates hours of work adjustments to two sources of capital gain: financial windfalls and real housing wealth gains. Significant reductions in hours are found for both men and women in response, in particular, to housing gains. Men appear to increase hours in response to real housing losses, whereas women reduce hours in response to real housing gains. Evidence on hours of work preferences suggests that observed adjustments are only partial responses.     

Quadratic Engel Curves with Measurement Error: Evidence from a Budget Survey*

This paper examines the importance of accounting for measurement error in total expenditure in the estimation of Engel curves, based on the 1994 Ethiopian Urban Household Survey. Using Lewbel's [Review of Economics and Statistics (1996 ), Vol. 78, pp. 718–725] estimator for demand models with correlated measurement errors in the dependent and independent variables, we find robust evidence of a quadratic relationship between food share and total expenditure in the capital city, and significant biases in various estimators that do not correct for correlated measurement errors.     

Consumption and Aggregate Constraints: International Evidence*

This paper documents that region‐level consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to lagged region‐level income in Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and West Germany. However, region‐specific consumption exhibits substantially less sensitivity to lagged region‐specific income. Moreover, excess sensitivity is inversely related to standard measures of openness and credit market integration and for most countries, it has decreased over time. These findings are consistent with the results reported by Ostergaard et al. [Journal of Political Economy (2002) Vol. 110, pp. 634–645] for US states and Canadian provinces, and provide empirical support for the hypothesis that closed‐economy constraints may partly be responsible for the excess sensitivity phenomenon in aggregate data.     

Habits,Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model*

In this paper we test the existence of forward‐looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward‐looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within‐period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two‐step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross‐sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward‐looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations.     

Consumer preferences and demand systems

This paper is an up-to-date survey of the state-of-the-art in consumer demand modelling. We review and evaluate advances in a number of related areas, including different approaches to empirical demand analysis, such as the differential approach, the locally flexible functional forms approach, the semi-non-parametric approach, and a non-parametric approach. We also address estimation issues, including sampling theoretic and Bayesian estimation methods, and discuss the limitations of the currently common approaches. We also highlight the challenge inherent in achieving economic regularity, for consistency with the assumptions of the underlying neoclassical economic theory, as well as econometric regularity, when variables are nonstationary.     

Price uncertainty, saving, and welfare

We analyze how commodity price uncertainty affects saving behavior and welfare in a dynamic model with multiple commodities, portfolio hedging, and a preference structure that disentangles ordinal preferences, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards intertemporal substitution. We show that the effect of price uncertainty on savings boils down to knowing (1) hf degree of resistance to intertemporal substitution and (2) the effect that uncertainty has on the certainty-equivalent real interest rate. We also show that, if the certainty-equivalent real interest rate is lower with uncertainty, consumers' welfare is also lower.     

The structure of US food demand

An exactly aggregable system of Gorman Engel curves for US food consumption is developed and implemented. Box-Cox transformations on prices and income nest functional form. The model nests rank up to rank three. The model is estimated by nonlinear three-stage least squares with annual time series data on 21 foods, 17 nutrients, age and race demographics, and the distribution of income for 1919–1941 and 1947–2000. Results are consistent with full rank three. Point estimates for the Box-Cox parameters on income and prices are 0.86 and 1.09, respectively, strongly rejecting zero and one in both cases. No statistical evidence of serial correlation, specification errors, or parameter instability is found.     

Refining Targeting against Poverty Evidence from Tunisia*

We introduce a new methodology to target direct transfers against poverty. Our method is based on estimation methods that focus on the poor. Using data from Tunisia, we estimate ‘focused’ transfer schemes that highly improve anti‐poverty targeting performances. Post‐transfer poverty can be substantially reduced with the new estimation method. For example, a one‐third reduction in poverty severity from proxy‐means test transfer schemes based on OLS method to focused transfer schemes requires only a few hours of computer work based on methods available on popular statistical packages. Finally, the obtained levels of undercoverage of the poor are particularly low.     

Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe*

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross‐correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan [Journal of Monetary Economics (2000) , Vol. 46, pp. 3–30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns.     

Investment and Uncertainty: A Theory‐based Empirical Approach*

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of uncertainty on firm‐level capital accumulation. A novelty in this paper is that the firm‐level uncertainty indicator is motivated and derived from a theoretical model, the neoclassical investment model with time to build. This model also serves as the base for the empirical work, where an error‐correction approach is employed. I find a negative effect of uncertainty on capital accumulation, both in the short run and the long run. This outcome cannot be explained by the model alone. Instead, the results suggest that the predominant mechanism at work stems from irreversibility constraints.     

Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications*

Structural vector‐autoregressive models are potentially very useful tools for guiding both macro‐ and microeconomic policy. In this study, we present a recently developed method for estimating such models, which uses non‐normality to recover the causal structure underlying the observations. We show how the method can be applied to both microeconomic data (to study the processes of firm growth and firm performance) and macroeconomic data (to analyse the effects of monetary policy).     

Political Influence and the Banking Sector: Evidence from Korea*

This paper uses panel data to compare the performance of Korean banks with and without effective government control of the appointment of chief operating officers. A privatization programme succeeded in spreading ownership of banks widely among the public, but government retention of an ownership stake in an institution meant de facto control by government. Despite charging lower loan rates, banks controlled by government experience higher bad loans ratios. This is in line with expectations of regulatory forbearance and government protection for recipients of political loans. Banks controlled by government are less efficient than privately controlled banks and bad loan variables are higher at banks with lower efficiency scores.     

New Keynesian monopolistic competition and objective demand

The New Keynesian model of monopolistic competition by Blanchard [Blanchard, O., Kiyotaki, N., 1987. Monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand. American Economic Review 77 (4), 647–666] is reformulated according to an objective demand approach making the behavior of all agents fully rational. The revised model is compared with the original model in terms of prices, quantities and welfare. Working with the revised model enhances the validity of the menu-cost argument and, different from the original model, implies that price rigidity is increasing in market concentration.     

Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP*

The well‐known lack of power of unit‐root tests has often been attributed to the short length of macroeconomic variables and also to data‐generating processes (DGPs) departing from the I(1)–I(0) models. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real gross national product (GNP) and GNP per capita (133 years), high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both the unit‐root and the trend‐stationary hypothesis. More flexible representations are then considered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional orders of integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP is provided. It is shown that both FI and SB formulations are in general preferred to the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) [I(1) or I(0)] formulations. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are applied to discriminate between FI and SB. It turns out that the FI specification is preferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non‐stationary, highly persistent but mean‐reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaks in the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomic implications of these findings are also discussed.     

The Inflationary Consequences of a Currency Changeover on the Catering Sector: Evidence from the Michelin Red Guide*

This paper examines the inflationary consequences of a currency changeover in the catering market. Empirical evidence from the Michelin Red Guide shows that: (i) differently from restaurants in non‐euro countries, restaurants in the euro area experienced abnormal price increases just after the changeover; and (ii) among restaurants in the euro area, tourist restaurants are responsible for most of the abnormal price increases. These results suggest that proposed explanations for the changeover effect, such as menu adjustment and rounding up, are only part of the story. We present a simple model of the catering market that is consistent with the evidence.     

New Evidence on Class Size Effects: A Pupil Fixed Effects Approach*

The impact of class size on student achievement remains a thorny question for educational decision makers. Meta‐analyses of empirical studies emphasize the absence of class‐size effects but detractors have argued against such pessimistic conclusions because many of the underlying studies have not paid attention to the endogeneity of class size. This article uses a stringent method to address the endogeneity problem using Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data on 47 countries. We measure the class size effect by relating the difference in a student's achievement across subjects to the difference in his/her class size across subjects. This (subject‐differenced) within‐pupil achievement production function avoids the problem of the non‐random matching of children to specific schools, and to classes within schools. The results show a statistically significant negative effect of class size in 14 countries, but the effect size is small in most cases. Several robustness tests are carried out, including control for students’ subject‐specific ability and subject‐specific teacher characteristics, and correction for possible measurement error. Thus, our approach to addressing the endogeneity problem confirms the findings of meta‐analyses that find little support for class size effects. Additionally, we find that class size effects are smaller in countries with higher teacher quality.     

The New Keynesian Phillips curve with myopic agents

Empirical estimations of the New Keynesian Phillips curve support hybrid versions with a positive weight on lagged inflation and a weight less than one on expected inflation. We argue that myopic price setting of some agents explains the low weight on expected inflation. The lagged term can be explained by trend extrapolation if information about the future is costly. In a laboratory experiment we implement the Calvo (1983) microfoundations of the Phillips curve. Our hypotheses are supported by the experimental data. About half of the subjects set optimal Calvo prices while about a third is myopic.