Will Brexit speed a seismic shift in UK trade patterns?

• The UK's trade pattern has shifted significantly away from the EU since the 1990s. Our analysis suggests that this shift will continue in the decades to come, with the EU share in UK goods exports potentially slipping to around 35% by 2035. Shifts in relative prices from moves in tariff and especially non‐tariff barriers could lower the share further.
• Over 60% of UK goods exports went to the EU in the late 1990s but this has fallen to around 45%. Slow EU growth is partly to blame, with UK exports to the EU barely expanding since 2007. But our analysis also shows that a 1% rise in EU GDP leads to only around half the rise in UK exports to the EU that a 1% rise in GDP in the rest of the world induces in UK exports to non‐EU countries.
• Based on our findings and OE forecasts of long‐term growth in the EU and the world, the EU share of UK goods exports could fall to 37% by 2035 and around 30% by 2050 – back to its 1960 level. The share of services exports to the EU has held up better but is lower than for goods, at around 40%.
• Weakening growth of UK exports to the EU has taken place despite the development of the EU single market since the early 1990s. Indeed, based on our projections UK goods exports to the single market could drop below 5% of UK GDP by 2050. These projections make no allowance for Brexit effects, but the declining importance of exports to the EU single market could colour prospective Brexit negotiations.
• Simple income‐based projections of potential country shares in future UK exports suggest a further swing towards emerging countries (EM) in the decades ahead, especially China and India. Exports to EM could approach 40% of the total by 2035. A shift in the pattern of trade preferences and restrictions faced by the UK post‐Brexit could spark even larger shifts in the structure of UK exports.

     

TRADE POLICY AND CITY PRIMACY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper examines the relationship between trade policy and city primacy in developing countries. A general equilibrium model was constructed and center‐periphery relations are analyzed, accounting for tensions between agglomerative and distributive forces. By applying the theoretical model through numerical simulations, we analyzed how trade policy affects the interactions between these forces. We distinguished between import tariffs and export trade barriers. The results suggested that trade liberalization can reduce the dominance of mega‐cities in developing countries, but only when improvements are made to internal and external factors inhibiting their export trade. These include improving domestic transport infrastructure and reducing barriers to exports from developing countries by developed nations.     

Brexportgeddon?

• While a major market for UK exports, the EU is not quite as significant as the headline statistics suggest and one which is likely to continue declining in relative importance. The static tariff cost of a worst‐case ‘Brexit’ is estimated to be around ¼% of GDP, a modest sum.
• But the dynamic cost could be higher. And certain industrial sectors look vulnerable, notably aircraft and chemicals where sales to the EU account for over 40% of total (domestic and overseas) demand and EU tariffs are relatively high.
• Moreover, exports to the EU would also face non‐tariff barriers, which would be of particular relevance for the services sector. That services firms export much more to the rest of the world than to the EU suggests that they are well versed in overcoming such barriers. But financial services would face particular risks from Brexit.

     

论绿色贸易壁垒对我国农产品贸易的影响与对策

绿色贸易壁垒作为一种新的技术性贸易壁垒,对我国农产品出口造成了较大的影响。我国政府应该正视国际农产品贸易中绿色环保的发展趋势,及时调整自己的贸易策略。文中在绿色贸易壁垒对我国农产品贸易积极和消极影响分析的基础上,提出了应对该种贸易壁垒的四点对策。     

台州农产品出口应对技术性贸易壁垒研究

从台州农产品出口现状入手,分析了技术性贸易壁垒对台州农产品出口的影响,并提出了六项对策:一是以贸易壁垒反求管理水平,实现农产品出口经营模式优化;二是健全农产品出口的质量追溯和保障体系,提高出口农产品认证水平;三是产业集聚助推技术创新,促进农工技贸协调发展;四是加强国外市场的开拓促销工作,树立农产品安全品牌形象;五是选择农产品区域细分市场,促进出口市场多元化;六是全方位多渠道收集壁垒信息,建立高效统一的快速反应机制。     

绿色贸易壁垒的特征、影响及对策

随着世界贸易自由化的进一步发展,一种新的贸易保护策略——绿色贸易壁垒随之而来,绿色贸易壁垒是近年来发达国家限制发展中国家产品进入其国内市场的重要贸易保护措施之一。我国作为发展中国家,出口产品深受绿色贸易壁垒之害。     

Exports and International Logistics*

Better international logistics raise a developing country's exports, but the magnitude of the effect depends on the country's size. We apply a gravity model that accounts for firm heterogeneity and multilateral resistance to an international logistics index. A one standard deviation improvement in logistics is equivalent to a 14% reduction in distance. An average‐sized developing country would raise exports by approximately 36%. Most of the countries are much smaller than average, so the typical effect is 8%. This difference is chiefly due to the dampening effect of multilateral resistance, which is more important for small countries.     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

俄罗斯纺织品市场准入制度简介

随着俄罗斯市场的崛起,俄罗斯市场准入制度的完善就变得重要起来,本文针对俄罗斯的纺织品市场准入制度现状进行了分析,包括关税壁垒及技术性贸易壁垒。     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

Export discoveries, diversification and barriers to entry

The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development established that diversification rises with development up to a point. Some have argued that market failures reduce private investments that are necessary to find out whether a new product can be exported profitably, thus implying that the threat of entry can reduce export discoveries and consequently hamper diversification. In parallel, the trade literature on the “extensive margin” of trade has focused on the role of fixed costs of exporting, which affects the number and types of firms that enter into exporting activities. This article presents data suggesting that export diversification and export discoveries are correlated over the course of development, and it provides an empirical test of market failures that might deter export discoveries. The findings suggest that the threat of entry by imitators reduces the number of export discoveries within countries and industries for a given rate of growth of non-discovery exports. However, this market-failure effect is less pronounced when allowing for inter-industry spillovers, whereby export discoveries in one industry lead to discoveries in another industry. The policy implication is that barriers to entry should not be used to protect innovators from the threat of imitation, but governments could consider interventions that directly focus on stimulating export discoveries.     

Brexit — velvet divorce or messy breakup?

• We use a ‘scenario tree’ approach to look at the possible outcomes of the negotiations around the UK's exit from the EU. Given how little common ground there is between the two sides, we find that a relatively loose relationship is the most likely outcome, with the UK set to leave the EU in early‐ 2019.
• The negotiating positions of the UK and EU are diametrically opposed. The UK wants to end the free movement of labour, cease making contributions to the EU budget and regain ‘sovereignty’ from Brussels, while retaining as much access to the single market as possible. But the EU's starting position is that single market access is dependent upon agreeing to the four freedoms and that this is non‐negotiable.
• So far all signs are that the UK will prioritise the ability to control immigration over single market access. Thus remaining a member of the EEA is very unlikely to be viable over the longer‐term – our scenario tree analysis gives it a probability of just 6% – although it may be adopted as an interim step. Remaining part of the customs union is also unlikely (18%) as it will preclude the UK from making FTA with third countries.
• If the EU takes a mercantilist approach, it will have little incentive to come to an agreement with the UK over single market access for services, given the UK's large trade surplus with the EU for these activities, implying that UK firms may face growing non‐tariff barriers after the UK has left the EU. The UK's large deficit on goods trade with the EU gives a better chance of agreeing a FTA for goods, though with any FTA requiring agreement from all 27 EU members, the UK would have to be prepared for lengthy negotiations and make extensive concessions. Therefore, we think that a reversion to WTO rules (37%) is slightly more likely than agreeing a FTA (36%).

     

山东省农产品出口情况分析及展望

综合分析了山东省农产品出口的产品结构、地区结构、市场结构及竞争力。研究发现,山东省农产品产品结构和市场结构进一步优化,地区结构不均衡,山东省农产品出口具有较强的竞争力;但是总体上竞争力具有下降的态势。最后,从全球金融危机和贸易壁垒方面,分析了山东省农产品出口面临的国际形势;并在前面分析的基础上,提出了对山东省农产品出口的前景展望。     

Disclosure, Corporate Governance and Foreign Share Ownership on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange

We investigate the association of foreign share ownership with firm‐level disclosure and corporate governance structures in Zimbabwe, a developing country in Southern Africa. Our motivation for the study derives from the literature, which suggests that foreign investors: (1) generally have a preference for companies in which they are well informed and where their investments are more likely to be protected, and (2) avoid companies in developing countries because of weak corporate governance structures and low disclosure. Using data drawn from companies listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, we examine the effect of disclosure and corporate governance on foreign share ownership. We find that disclosure, proportion of non‐executive directors, institutional share ownership and audit committee independence are all positively and significantly associated with foreign share ownership. Our results also demonstrate that market capitalization, return on equity and liquidity ratios are significantly associated with foreign share ownership. These results are consistent with the notion that foreign investors have a preference for companies with effective corporate governance structures, companies with less information asymmetry, as well as companies with healthy cash positions. The results have implications for policy‐makers in developing countries in their endeavour to improve liquidity on stock markets through the participation of foreign investors. The results are also useful to managers in developing countries who are keen to increase the market value of their company, thereby reducing their cost of capital.     

A SURVEY OF THE ECONOMICS OF FAIR TRADE

Fair Trade has spread in developing countries as an initiative aimed at lifting poor smallholder farmers out of poverty by providing them with premium prices, availability of credit, and improved community development and social goods. Fair Trade is also viewed as a niche market for high value products in a context of globalization and trade liberalization policies that affect smallholder farmers in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the potential effects of Fair Trade, both theoretical and empirical, on small‐scale producers in developing countries. Our review discusses the empirical evidence on prices and income, as well as the importance of limited market access and productivity. We discuss evidence on labor markets and human capital investments as well.     

Pricing‐to‐Market and Market Structure*

Stimulated by imperfect competition/sticky prices framework of the new open economy macroeconomics, empirical research has reconsidered the role of exchange rates in international adjustment. This paper reassesses the link between exchange rates and traded good prices by estimating pricing‐to‐market equations for the five main euro area countries over the period 1990–99. We minimize selection biases by keeping all manufacturing products and all destination markets and show that exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) is much larger, almost complete, than previously estimated. Thanks to a huge variability in terms of exchange rate variations, products and destination markets, we can map differences in ERPT into market structures and, at the same time, reconcile our results with the empirical literature. We find that ERPT is highly incomplete for sales by oligopolistic industries into advanced economies, indeed in the order of 50–60% as previously estimated. ERPT is instead almost complete in emerging and developing economies where therefore exchange rate movements can help adjust external imbalances. We also find that ERPT is largely asymmetric: it is almost complete after an appreciation of the exporter's currency, rather incomplete after a depreciation. This result is very robust across specifications.     

The impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the margins of international trade

In this paper we consider the trade creating effects of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) for a large sample of countries within the period 1962-2000. The paper builds upon existing literature by examining whether any significant effects of PTAs occur through a change in the variety of exports (the extensive margin) or through a change in the volume of existing products (the intensive margin). To address this issue we employ the commonly used gravity equation as well as a matching approach to deal with potential self-selection problems. Our results indicate that exports respond positively to the formation of a PTA between countries, and that much of this increase in exports occurs along the extensive margin. We also show that the extensive margin responds more strongly to the formation of a PTA in larger exporters and for larger country pairs.     

绿色贸易壁垒与我国外贸出口发展对策

绿色贸易壁垒也称环境贸易壁垒,属于非关税壁垒的一种。由于绿色贸易壁垒的内容具有歧视性,它通常是发达国家根据国内环保水平和标准设置,当然不利于发展中国家的出口贸易。绿色贸易壁垒不像配额、许可证等非关税壁垒,虽然限制贸易,却还有一定透明度,因此危害更大。文中分析了绿色贸易壁垒的本质、绿色贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响并提出了相应的对策。     

Does Skill Content Explain Total Trade and Intra‐Industry Trade?*

This study compares the results of skill content tests for types of trade flows under alternative assumptions about the technologies used to produce imports and exports. For trade between high‐ and middle‐income countries, we show that the match between the actual skill content of trade and that predicted by endowments in a Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek framework improves substantially if technological heterogeneity across countries is allowed for and if the factor content of intra‐industry trade is included with that of inter‐industry trade. Endowment differences are important in explaining net trade and vertical intra‐industry trade, but not horizontal intra‐industry trade.     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.