Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports

In this paper, we investigate empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility on real international trade flows utilizing a 13‐country data set of monthly bilateral real exports for 1980–1998. We compute one‐month‐ahead exchange rate volatility from the intra‐monthly variations in the exchange rate to better quantify this latent variable. We find that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is nonlinear, depending on its interaction with the importing country's volatility of economic activity, and that it varies considerably over the set of country pairs considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks*

The paper analyses the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to global equity markets and the macroeconomic determinants of the underlying transmission process. We show that there is a substantial cross‐country heterogeneity in reactions across 50 equity markets worldwide, with returns falling on average around 2.7% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, but ranging from a zero response in some to a reaction of 5% or more in other markets. As to the determinants of the strength of transmission to individual countries, we test the relevance of their macroeconomic policies and the role of real and financial integration. We find that in particular the degree of global integration of countries – and not a country's bilateral integration with the United States – is a key determinant for the transmission process.     

Innovation and productivity: insights from Malaysia's logistics industry

Efficient logistics is critical to a country's trade competitiveness. This paper uses the Data Envelopment Analysis Malmquist Index that includes an innovation component comprising three dimensions (input, process, and output), to assess the impact of innovation by third-party logistics (3PL). We treat the panel data of asset-based 3PL in Malaysia from 2007 to 2012. Three findings hold. First, innovation is not always accompanied by productivity gains. Second, innovation is still lacking in the logistics industry in Malaysia. Third, 3PL need to invest more in technology and stay financially healthy to accelerate the diffusion of innovation under a more competitive cost structure. This paper has two contributions. First, we offer an enhanced methodology for total factor productivity by including an innovation component and apply it for the first time to the logistics industry. Second, we augment the performance measurement literature specific to the logistics industry and our research suggests that the antecedents of productivity in logistics companies are investment and financial strength. These productivity–innovation findings provide insights into Malaysia's logistics industry and may be helpful for economies similar to Malaysia.     

Are government or private enterprises more likely to engage in dumping? Some international evidence

This paper provides the first systematic evidence comparing the incidence of below-cost dumping among state and privately owned firms. Recent economic theory indicates that government enterprises, if motivated by goals such as output or revenue maximization rather than profit maximization, face higher returns to engaging in below-cost pricing than private enterprises. International data from anti-dumping investigations strongly confirm this prediction. Between 43% and 94% of initiated below-cost dumping cases and between 54% and 100% of affirmative dumping decisions against exporting firms from nonmarket economies are attributable to those firms' publicly owned status. We are able to reject the hypotheses that this result is explained by political biases against nonmarket economies in anti-dumping procedures or from possible political biases stemming from the industry composition of nonmarket exports. In fact in both cases, we find that the above results may understate the true effect of market organization on a country's propensity to engage in dumping.     

逆向物流不再沉寂

全新的资源环境观和经济观的演变,导致逆向物流进入了突破性发展阶段,有效的逆向物流系统和流程能节约成本、增加利润,并提高客户服务质量,基于可持续发展的逆向物流已成为国际知名企业提升竞争优势和提高管理效益的重要领域。     

中国贸易产品多样性的测度及动态分析

本文调整了传统测算多样性指数的方法,对我国HS6位编码的进出口产品多样性进行了测度,并使用马尔可夫链模型对其发展趋势进行动态分析。研究表明,我国贸易产品波动尤其是出口产品的波动还将维持在一个较高的水平,劳动密集型产品作为我国贸易优势产品,对我国贸易进一步向竞争更为激烈的资本技术密集型产品领域扩展起到降低风险、稳定发展的作用。进口贸易也将通过调整进口产品结构,促进资本、技术等引进加快我国贸易结构的转型升级。本文的研究拟为评价我国贸易质量、制定贸易转型政策提供有效参考。     

Non-interest income,profitability, and risk in banking industry: A cross-country analysis

Using bank accounting data for 22 countries in Asia over the period 1995–2009, this article applies the dynamic panel generalized method of moments technique to investigate the impacts of non-interest income on profitability and risk for 967 individual banks. We find that non-interest activities of Asian banks reduce risk, but do not increase profitability on a broad sample basis. Specifically, when considering bank specialization and a country's income level, the results become complicated. Non-interest activities decrease profitability as well as increases risk for savings banks. The impact is also different for commercial, cooperative, and investment banks either by increasing profitability or reducing risk. On the other hand, non-interest activities raise risk for banks in high income countries, while increasing profitability or reducing risk for banks in middle and low income countries. Finally, our results reveal that the persistence of risk is greatly affected by bank specialization and a country's income level, as all risk variables present persistence from one year to the next. Our findings suggest that the type of bank specialization matters for the effect of diversifying revenue sources.     

On exchange rates and economic growth

Extending Ireland's (1994) model, this paper analyzes an international economy where cash or credit can be used for payment. Foreign trade credit is more costly than its domestic analog. A depreciation of the real exchange rate is associated with an external surplus and a reduced share of imports purchased with credit. Economic growth slows when foreign trade credit becomes the predominant means of payment for international transactions. A country with high inflation exports its Tobin effect and thus temporarily increases world growth.     

Multilateral trade liberalisation helps promote export product diversification: Trade tensions damage the prospects of the poorest economies

Using a large panel dataset over a 20‐year period, this article explores the effect of multilateral trade liberalisation on export product diversification. Empirical results show that multilateral trade liberalisation is positively associated with export product diversification. However, less‐developed economies experience a greater positive effect than relatively advanced economies. This analysis suggests that if trade tensions reduce cooperation on trade matters among World Trade Organization members, it may hinder export product diversification in developing countries, and the poorest countries might be the most adversely affected.     

Structural Change in Chile: 1960–90

This paper attempts to analyze compositional structural change in Chile, especially during the period around 1974–90, when the most overt ‘neo-liberal’ experiment was forced on the country's economy and society. The main conclusion is that, while the service sector has moved in the correct direction, setting up important industries for the dynamic development of the country, the manufacturing sector has not performed equally well. The manufacturing sector has significantly shrunk its most sophisticated base, and relies mostly on traditional manufacturing that grows sluggishly. Export expansion is in manufacturing still a small proportion of exports. The primary sector is still the main export earner, but has significantly diversified. It appears that the economy has not moved fast enough towards, and does not appear to be geared by, the type of exports that may sustain a dynamic industrial development, based on external markets.     

The short and long-run impact of globalization if firms differ in factor input ratios

Empirical evidence has shown that exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters. Based on this evidence, I construct a two-factor general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity in factor intensities, monopolistic competition, scale economies and international trade. This setting can explain several empirical regularities on international trade, factor market competition, factor relocations and factor returns: (i) exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters, regardless of a country's relative factor endowments; (ii) finite supply of capital limits a country's export activities; (iii) trade liberalization increases the relative return to capital; (iv) new profit opportunities in export markets change the distribution of firms towards the more capital intensive ones. Finally, I extend the setting to endogenous capital accumulation and show that trade liberalization induces economic growth and, in the long-run, benefits all factors in real terms.     

Structural shifts in the manufacturing export performance of oecd economies

This paper identifies structural shifts in manufacturing export performance of the major OECD economies. The particular emphasis of this study is to see whether the longer-run responses of a country's exports to the growth in world demand have undergone trend changes. The econometric work focuses on the time variation in income elasticities from an export demand model over the period 1963–89. It thus covers a period in which there was a substantial slow-down in world economic growth and in which the manufacturing sectors in advanced economies underwent substantial restructuring in the wake of the two oil-price shocks and the competitive challenges of Japan and the NICs. The exercise attempted to evaluate the relative successes and failures of the different OECD economies to maintain or improve their positions in the ‘higher quality’ (income elastic) segments of world trade. Evidence was found for trend improvements in the income elasticity for UK exports from the early 1980s onwards and a trend decline for that of the US over the same period. The effects of non-tariff protection against Japanese exports also showed up in our results and an attempt was made to separately identify its effects.     

Export specialization and economic growth around the world

This paper empirically investigates the extent to which technological characteristics in exports affect the patterns of trade-led economic growth across countries. Data of the Balassa index, which captures a country's revealed comparative advantage, are obtained for industries classified by technological intensity. Regression results based on a sample of 71 countries since 1970 suggest that economies have tended to grow more rapidly when they have increasingly specialized in exporting high-technology as opposed to traditional or low-technology goods. The findings are robust to the presence of various control variables as well as the consideration of parameter heterogeneity and in the endogeneity of export structures.     

我国水上石油物流系统优化问题探讨

随着我国石油需求量及进出口量的不断增长,研究我国水上石油物流系统的优化问题日益重要,本文首先分析了水上石油物流系统研究的必要性,对国内外关于石油物流系统研究现状进行了评述,提出了我国水上石油物流系统优化问题的研究思路和方法.     

稳中求进 整合提升 促进我国物流业持续健康发展

2012年我国物流业要把握好稳中求进的总基调,在国家宏观调控,结构调整中发挥更大作用。本次会议的主要任务是,深入学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神,回顾我国物流业2011年的新进展,展望2012年新形势,通报说明新政策,为促进我国物流业新发展营造环境,谋划对策。下面,我就2011年我国物流业发展情况、2012年形势分析和对策建议谈几点看法。     

Why Developing Countries Have Failed to Increase Their Exports of Agricultural Processed Products

The article uses the case study of coffee, tea and cocoa to analyse whether tariff escalation constitutes a barrier to market access that thwarts diversification efforts of developing countries into exports of value‐added agricultural processed products. It also examines the extent to which non‐tariff barriers act as market access barriers that constrain developing countries from developing their exports of agricultural processed products. Our analysis shows that tariff escalation is not the main barrier; rather it is the prevalence of non‐tariff barriers (including domestic non‐tariff barriers) that limits the ability of developing countries to increase their agricultural processed exports. This has important policy implications in terms of the emphasis that trade negotiators and policy planners should place on addressing non‐tariff barriers.     

智能物流发展状况、影响因素及对策研究

介绍了智能物流的概念、关键技术、发展动力及发展趋势,分析了国际国内智能物流的发展状况以及影响我国智能物流发展的主要因素,最后提出了相应的对策,为我国智能物流的发展提供参考。     

Go Global,Innovate! Training Social Entrepreneurial Leaders

Problems associated with poverty, education, healthcare, and the environment are grand challenges shared by all nations. For example, poverty in one country may lead to immigration and limitations on exports for another. Similarly, as the Ebola crisis demonstrated, one country's healthcare challenges can quickly turn into a problem for all. The global interconnectedness of social problems necessitates the development of solutions by entrepreneurial leaders trained to adopt a global perspective. The questions explored in the current article are: (a) what does it take to be a global entrepreneurial leader and a social entrepreneur, and (b) how can we prepare students to succeed as global entrepreneurial leaders?     

国际营销下的国际物流发展策略

国际物流是企业顺利完成国际市场营销活动的重要保障。在阐述国际物流意义的基础上,提出国际物流的发展策略,认为应该加强物流基础设施建设、加快国际物流人才的培养、强化技术在国际物流中运用和积极发展第三方物流,以促进我国国际物流的快速发展。     

The Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalisation on Economic Development: Some Empirical Evidence

This article examines the impact of multilateral trade policy liberalisation on countries' levels of economic development, proxied by their real per capita income. The study is particularly relevant in the current context of growing rhetoric against international trade, which could fuel domestic protectionism and would likely undermine multilateral trade liberalisation. The analysis has been conducted on a panel data set of 155 countries, over non‐overlapping four‐yearly sub‐periods during 1995–2014. The empirical results suggest strong support for the view that multilateral trade liberalisation promotes economic development. Hence, the rise in unilateral protectionist trade measures around the world would likely endanger the prospects of further multilateral trade liberalisation and ultimately undermine countries' prospects of economic development.