FISCAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BEFORE THE CRISIS

This article investigates fiscal convergence attained by EU countries in the period 1991–2008, by employing β‐ and σ‐convergence techniques complemented by a time series analysis. Overall our results highlight a distinctive convergence pattern in the European Union. Fiscal discipline leading to a fast convergence of deficit/GDP ratio over the 1990s markedly weakened in the following decade. Nonetheless, after the Euro debut a pronounced convergence in total revenue and total government spending emerges, with different patterns characterizing each expenditure component. Despite this evidence of fiscal harmonization, European treaties failed to attract countries toward a common share of government debt over GDP. (JEL E61, H11, C23)     

IMPLICATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: THE MESSAGE FROM EASTERN EUROPE

The European Community (EC) seems headed toward monetary union, either with "permanently" fixed exchange rates or with a common currency. Ceteris paribus, the breakup of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe makes monetary union less desirable. One can expect further shocks from the East. Analyzing stock markets' reactions to events in the East from late 1988 to early 1990 shows that these shocks typically differentially affect EC members, particularly Germany. These differential shocks often call for adjustments in relative national price levels, which can be accomplished most easily with exchange-rate adjustments. The likelihood of such pressures reduces the credibility of a system of pegged rates and makes the system more vulnerable to speculative runs. A common currency is more credible by its nature but may give an inflationary bias to the European Monetary Union.     

THE EVOLUTION OF COMPETITIVENESS IN HUNGARIAN AGRICULTURE: FROM TRANSITION TO ACCESSION

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

BREAKING THE IMPEDIMENTS TO BUDGETARY REFORMS: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPE

In addition to the known effects of government fractionalization, we find that larger deficits are associated with a reduced likelihood of budgetary reforms. In a war of attrition setting, larger deficits signify stronger entitlements on the budget, generating unwillingness to impose self‐discipline. A sense of crisis emerges only when macroeconomic imbalances appear. However, while a crisis creates the opportunity for reform, policy credibility is important for effectively using that opportunity. We find that one way of establishing credibility is by undertaking measures in opposition to the government's known ideological position – these presumably signal motivation by broader social welfare considerations.     

ELDERLY AND NON-ELDERLY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A COMPARISON OF LIVING STANDARDS

The paper compares the living standards of the elderly vis-a-vis the rest of the population in EU countries in the late 1980s using the data of Household Budget Surveys. Elderly and non-elderly are compared in terms of consumption expenditure, income and non-monetary indicators of welfare. The results show that in all EU countries the non-elderly are better-off than the elderly. In some countries the differences in the living standards of the two groups are marginal, whereas in others they are substantial. These differences tend to be larger in the Southern European EU countries (with the exception of Spain) and smaller in the Northern European EU countries (with the exception of the U.K.).     

PUBLIC ENTERPRISE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: prospects and constraints

ABSTRACT * : The author highlights the problems and prospects of public enterprises within the European Union, as well as the major adjustments considered necessary for these enterprises to fulfil their role. He argues that general criteria determining whether the production of goods and services should be in the public sector cannot be readily established in the European Union, since public supply does not solely depend on the specific economic characteristics of the particular good or service, but also on the prevailing social, cultural and economic conditions in each country, on the economic policy pursued, and on the structural characteristics of its private and public sectors, including entrepreneurial and trade union behaviour.     

集权与分权的抉择—改革开放30年中国财政体制的变迁

中国财政体制的演变反映出财政分权程度不仅没有提高,反而出现了财政集权的趋势;当前中央和地方间的事权错位,财权上移,事权下放,导致基层政府的支出责任过大;不当的事权和财权的划分造成了我国财政纵向不平衡较高,地方政府对中央政府的依赖度较高,但税收控制度低;财政分权对政府规模、经济增长和收入分配等有着不确定的影响;未来的改革还需要在进一步权衡分权和集权优劣的基础上作出选择,适当的分权是大势所趋。     

AVIATION DEREGULATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: DO ACTORS LEARN IN THE REGULATION GAME?

The United States has led the market liberalisation that has occurred over the past 15 years. Changes in the United States have not been trouble free. However, according to most impartial academic studies, changes in sectors such as aviation have generated net welfare gains. Other countries and industries liable to regulatory reform can learn from the United States. Governments have the scope to develop policies with fewer pitfalls, and industry can adopt strategies for retaining their market power. This paper looks specifically at how the aviation policymakers of the European Union have learned from the U.S. experience and how European airlines have equally adjusted their game.     

从财政主导转向货币政策工具：中国利率水平决定的转变*

本文基于利率市场化的角度,使用马尔科夫体制转换自回归模型（MS AR）研究我国利率市场化改革以来（1996—2017年）利率水平决定机制的非线性变化。通过计量模型识别出我国利率水平决定的两个体制,即“财政主导”（1996—2005年）和“货币主导”（2006—2017年）。我国利率决定机制改变的时间轨迹与利率市场化改革进程的关键时间节点相吻合。这表明我国的利率市场化改革取得了显著成效,利率调控方式由财政主导转向货币主导,为进一步的利率市场化打下了良好的基础。     

财政集权与地方政府行为变化-从援助之手到攫取之手

中央与地方政府之间分配财政资源的不同方式会引起地方政府的利益机制和行为的重大变化。本文构建一个中央与地方政府的博弈模型,并且采用省级数据来说明在90年代中期伴随分税制而来的财政集权如何加剧了地方政府从"援助之手"到"攫取之手"的行为转变。研究发现,虽然中央政府从财政集权中受益,预算收入和经济增长速度却因地方政府的行为变化而显著下降。     

财政集权与地方政府行为变化-从援助之手到攫取之手

中央与地方政府之间分配财政资源的不同方式会引起地方政府的利益机制和行为的重大变化.该文构建一个中央与地方政府的博弈模型,并且采用省级数据来说明在90年代中期伴随分税制而来的财政集权如何加剧了地方政府从援助之手到攫取之手的行为转变.研究发现,虽然中央政府从财政集权中受益,预算收入和经济增长速度却因地方政府的行为变化而显著下降.     

THE EVOLUTION OF SPATIAL ECONOMICS: FROM THÜNEN TO THE NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

This paper presents a review of the evolution of spatial economics over the past two centuries. The focus is on the evolution of what I consider to be the most fundamental theory of spatial economics, i.e., general location theory . The paper starts with a review of Thünen (1826 ), and ends with a review of the New Economic Geography initiated by Paul Krugman in the early 1990s. It is shown that the study of general location theory has been successful at shedding light on many important features of actual spatial economies.     

AFTER THE FALL: AN EX POST CHARACTERIZATION OF HOUSING PRICE DECLINES ACROSS METROPOLITAN AREAS

Housing prices have plummeted across the United States. This article examines differences in the magnitude of housing price decreases across metropolitan areas. A small number of housing market variables observable before the fall are capable of explaining over 70% of the considerable variation in price declines. An additional non‐parametric analysis suggests that exceeding particular thresholds for some of the key predictors is associated with much larger price drops. These findings are consistent with historical price patterns, which raises questions about the validity of mortgage pricing policy and risk diversification norms in the United States. The analysis points to a set of stylized facts concerning the housing price bubble that need to be explained and suggests fruitful hypotheses for understanding the dramatic housing price declines. (JEL R31, R21, R11, G21)     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OUTPUT VARIABILITY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM POST WAR UK DATA

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.     

THE POSTAL SERVICE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION PUBLIC MONOPOLY OR COMPETITIVE MARKET?: A transaction cost approach

The paper discusses the relevant institutional and economic aspects of the postal service, and analyses both the arguments for abolishing the statutory monopoly and those for retaining it. The main thesis of the paper is that public and private postal services differ from each other in many aspects: transaction costs, the willingness of the customer to pay, market structure, and possibilities of substituting the service with other communication instruments. Therefore, a simple privatisation will not solve per se the efficiency problems of the service. furthermore, the European Commission, which published in 1992 a green paper on postal services, is considering the possibility of harmonising the quality of the service within the EU and gradually reducing the gap in national postal prices. This seems to be an effective device to force firms towards the greater efficiency required in a Continental market. In future, the competition will take place not so much between private firms (more interested in running the high-value segments), as between national public carriers, as shown by the phenomenon of remail.     

CUSTOMER‐OWNED BANKING IN AUSTRALIA: FROM CREDIT UNION TO MUTUAL BANK

Since the 1990s financial sector regulation in Australia has treated credit unions and building societies the same as banks under the designated title of authorized depository institutions. This allows credit unions to choose between different organizational structures: cooperative; convert to customer‐owned banks or to demutualize. This article utilizes semi‐structured interviews to analyse the key motivations for organizational change. It examines a number of credit unions and their conversion experience to customer‐owned banks. It finds that adaptation of the credit union model was necessary to change customer perceptions, ensure future growth in the customer base and assets, and facilitate access to capital raisings with the credit rating of a bank. Despite this change customer‐owned banks retain the core principals of mutuality.     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND ECONOMIC VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM STATE‐LEVEL CROSS‐SECTION DATA OF THE USA*

This paper examines the implications of fiscal decentralization for economic stability. It has been discussed that fiscal decentralization reduces the variance of GDP growth, due to the greater diversification of performance across jurisdictions. We examine this theoretical result using a panel data set of the 50 states of the USA over the period of 1992–1997. We show that the theoretical specification of the production function is supported. We also show a negative significant relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic volatility. The results are robust when we take into account the endogeneity of fiscal decentralization.