资本结构的决定因素-来自中国的证据

同其他国家一样,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随企业规模、非债务性避税规模和公司固定资产的增加而增大,随公司盈利能力增加而减小,而且同上市公司所属行业相关。同时,它还会受到所有权结构的影响。同其他国家不同的是,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随公司经营风险程度的增加而增加,而且企业倾向于持有较低的长期债务。同融资的优序假说相比,静态权衡模型对中国上市公司的资本结构似乎有更强的解释力。     

资本结构的决定因素-来自中国的证据

同其他国家一样,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随企业规模、非债务性避税规模和公司固定资产的增加而增大,随公司盈利能力增加而减小,而且同上市公司所属行业相关.同时,它还会受到所有权结构的影响.同其他国家不同的是,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随公司经营风险程度的增加而增加,而且企业倾向于持有较低的长期债务.同融资的优序假说相比,静态权衡模型对中国上市公司的资本结构似乎有更强的解释力.     

THE IMPACT OF EXPORTING AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON PRODUCT INNOVATION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURERS

To understand the drivers of product innovation at the firm level, I compare the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and exporting on product innovation using a rich firm‐level database of manufacturing and industrial enterprises. The article focuses on product innovation, as it is vital to economic development. Estimates from linear regressions and propensity score matching tests show that learning‐by‐exporting is a stronger predictor of product innovation. Firms that receive foreign investment also tend to engage in more product innovation, but not at the same level as the firms that export. Additional tests confirm that as they start and stop exporting, firms change their patterns of investment in the drivers of product innovation—fixed capital and research. (JEL D22, F14, F23, L25, O31)     

中国要素产出弹性估计

要素产出弹性是分析经济增长的绩效、特征与可持续性等问题的重要参数。我国改革开放以来要素产出弹性估计结果是:1978-2004年,资本的产出弹性平均为0.56,劳动的产出弹性平均为0.44,并且资本的产出弹性呈不断下降趋势,而劳动产出弹性呈不断上升趋势;东部地区的资本产出弹性高于中部地区,中部地区又高于西部地区;全要素生产率年均增长率在3.7%~3.9%之间。     

我国制造业区域集聚程度决定因素的研究

本文分析了中国近年来(1998—2003)制造业行业集聚的趋势以及影响行业集聚的微观基础。研究表明样本期间中国制造业行业集聚呈上升态势。我们利用面板数据和动态估计过程模型,一定程度上控制了现有实证研究文献中存在的一些可能造成结果偏差的缺陷。我们发现:地方保护主义在很大程度上限制了中国制造业的区域集聚。同时,溢出效应、运输成本和自然禀赋也是影响行业集聚的重要因素。     

中国资本账户开放程度的测算

对我国资本账户开放程度的准确判断是相关理论研究和决策分析的基本前提。从名义和实际两个方面对中国的资本账户开放程度进行测度的结果表明:(1)当前我国的名义资本管制处于中等水平,而实际资本账户的开放水平要远高于名义资本账户开放水平;(2)在存在较大套利空间的情况下,即便存在较为严格的资本管制,资本管制的有效性也很难长期维持;(3)虽然资本管制程度的加强很难对实际的套利资本流动加以控制,但在资本管制措施逐渐放松以后,却很容易导致实际资本流动性的急剧提高,这一点,造成了我国当前资本管制政策的"两难"选择。     

劳动力市场收入冲击对消费行为的影响

失业会造成不利的收入冲击,外部收入冲击会影响消费者的消费行为。失业对食品和教育支出的影响不同,平均而言,消费者对食品支出具有更强的修匀能力,教育水平对教育支出具有正向修匀作用。失业者实现再就业之后,食品支出比例显著下降,教育支出相对上升,失业持续时间对再就业者教育支出依然具有负向影响。女性失业会降低家庭的食品和教育支出比例,女性再就业后会提高家庭的教育支出。     

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA'S PROVINCES

This study examines the provincial effects of monetary policy from 1978 to 2011 in China. We used the SVAR method to measure the magnitude and timing of each province's response to monetary policy shocks when considering the influences of spillover effects among provinces. Then we also explored the regional effects of monetary policy employing multiple linear regressions. The results confirm that provinces respond differently to monetary policy actions. It was found that in the short run, the influence of spillover effects on a province's response is very important, but in the long run, the negative influence of deposit transfers overtake the positive impact of the spillover effect. For the factors causing the regional effects on monetary policy, the results show that the interest rate channel is rather weak at the regional level in China. The bank lending channel can explain the regional effects of monetary policy to some extent. Thus in China, the bank lending channel is more effective than the interest rate channel at the regional level.     

SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM IN CHINA: THE CASE OF OLD-AGE INSURANCE

The social security system in the People's Republic of China is experiencing dramatic changes. This paper examines the characteristics of the pre-reform social security system in the People's Republic of China with respect to the old-age insurance, discusses and comments on the recent efforts towards old-age insurance reform, and proposes recommendations for the current reform, such as raising the official retirement ages, changing funding system, and investing pension funds to appreciate their values.     

WELFARE REFORM, EARNINGS, AND INCOMES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE SURVEY OF PROGRAM DYNAMICS

The authors ask how welfare reform has affected the earnings and incomes of welfare recipients using a detailed longitudinal data set, the recently released Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD). They find pre-TANF waivers positively affected the earnings and incomes of both female high school graduates and nongraduates, but the effect is statistically significant only for nongraduates. In contrast, the effect of TANF policies is detrimental to nongraduates but improves economic outcomes for graduates. The findings indicate there are still families who are left behind by welfare programs. The results also warrant further use of longitudinal data sets such as the SPD. (JEL I38 , H53 )     

内部人交易与股票市场回报——来自中国市场的证据

本文系统地分析了自2007年6月1日以来,我国上市公司内部人的公开市场交易行为。本文的结论表明,在实施了内部人交易监管法规以来,我国上市公司的内部人依然能够利用私有信息在二级市场上赚取超额收益。当内部人购买或出售公司股票时,股票市场都会出现异常反应。而这些超额收益的大小直接受到公司的股权集中度、企业是否为国有等因素的影响。公司治理结构越差,则内部人赚取的超额收益越多。依据上述结论,笔者提出了相应的政策建议。     

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC REFORM: THEORY AND SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE RUSSIAN CASE

The paper examines theoretical issues concerning the relationship between political democracy and economic reform and builds on the empirical material from the recent experience of Russia. The process of transition to democracy is shown to have started spontaneously due to the situation of power stalemate among pressure groups that came to control the communist system in the years preceding its ultimate collapse. The unrestrained control by those groups is shown to be the reason behind the continued economic collapse, while gradual build-up of the democratic system can in the long run act in the direction of improving the chances for a successful economic reform.     

EFFECTS OF STRENGTHENING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN'S 1994 PATENT REFORM

Does strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) in terms of a longer patent life induce more patents? This article investigates the responses of high‐technology firms to Taiwan’s 1994 patent reform. Empirical analyses reveal that firms’ patenting propensity rose gradually before patent reform and showed an increase after patent reform, tending to support the viewpoint that stronger IPR can induce more patents. However, this cannot lead to lasting effect. Furthermore, patenting capability can serve as the access ticket for potential entrants to a science park under the circumstance of stronger IPR protections. These new entrants are found to have a better post‐entry performance in patenting relative to the incumbents in the short run. (JEL O14, O31)     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

中国住房改革对家庭耐用品消费的影响

中国的住房改革对许多城市家庭形成正的财富冲击。利用CHNS数据,我们发现:同理论预期一致,受益于住房改革的家庭消费了更多的耐用品。特别是,在住房改革的随后几年,其影响更为显著。我们还发现,住房改革对耐用品消费的次序具有影响,经历住房改革的家庭倾向于首先消费生活最必需的耐用品,然后再消费其他耐用品。通过增加家庭的耐用品消费,住房改革对扩大内需和走出当时的通货紧缩产生了积极影响。     

中国国有银行改革的比较制度分析

中国国有银行经历了多次改革而未能实现预期的商业化改革目标,甚至在其股份制改革后也很难说建立了现代银行制度。本文利用比较制度分析方法,从制度互补视角对此原因进行分析,本文的结论是,中国的金融改革只是经济体制整体改革的一部分,国有银行改革是在与企业改革和政府职能转变的互动中实现的。     

FROM MARGINALISM TO INSTITUTIONALISM: DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE FINNISH PENSION REGIME

This study offers a longitudinal scrutiny of the development of pension policy in Finland and evaluates the impacts that the shift from a "marginal" to an "institutional" welfare state imposed on economic well-being among the elderly. The data that are used stem from household budget surveys from 1966 to 1990. During that period, average income of the elderly doubled in real terms, legislated pensions replaced other sources of income, the traditional cycle of poverty, where the elderly had a higher risk of poverty, disappeared, and income differences between the elderly diminished.     

东道国制度安排、市场分割与FDI溢出效应:来自中国的证据

本文选取桂琦寒等(2006)的相对价格法测算了消费品市场、资本品市场和劳动力市场的市场分割指数,并考察了市场分割程度对我国FDI溢出效应的长短期效应。经验分析发现:随着我国市场一体化程度日益加深,外商直接投资对我国各地区的经济增长产生了显著为正的资本效应和溢出效应。其中,溢出效应又可分解为负的技术溢出效应和正的制度变迁效应。负向技术溢出效应产生于市场分割程度降低所引致的外资技术扩散效应尚不足以抵消掉跨国公司的市场窃取效应,而正的制度变迁效应意味着外资流入降低了市场分割程度,对地区经济增长产生了积极的推动作用。我们还发现,长期内的FDI资本效应和溢出效应都要弱于外资流入初期所产生的相应效果。     

POVERTY DYNAMICS DURING TRADE REFORM: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL VIETNAM

This paper implements and adapts the conceptual framework developed by Winters (2002) that identifies the transmission mechanisms between trade policy reform and household welfare outcomes. We make use of household panel data from Vietnam collected in two years, 1992–93 and 1997–98 that span the very earliest years of the reform period and its immediate after effects. Poverty dynamics are modeled using changes in consumption expenditure and poverty transition models. The trade effect is captured by a set of variables that are most likely to have an impact on rural poverty, namely prices of staples and employment in the export sector. We show that trade liberalization has a material and positive effect on rural household welfare and this trade effect is largely transmitted to the poor through the labor market channel.