OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

DOES MONEY MATTER FOR INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA?

We analyze the relationship between M3 growth and inflation within an error correction framework including also the output gap, the 3‐mo EURIBOR, and the 10‐yr government bond yield. We find robust cointegration between money growth and inflation. Shocks in M3 growth account for up to 30% of the inflation forecast error variance, while the effects of output gap and interest rate shocks are mainly transitory. Significantly different dynamics are found during periods at the end of the seventies and beginning of the eighties when interest rate and inflation rate levels were high and real money growth decreasing. (JEL C32, E31, E41)     

INFLATION TARGETERS IN PRACTICE: A LUCKY LOT?

Some observers have attributed the success of inflation targeters in reducing inflation to the global disinflation of the 1990s. As a result, inflation targeting countries have been considered to be a lucky lot. One key policyimplication of that is that if the international environment becomes again hostile to low inflation in the future, inflation targeting will prove to have been a mere fad. This article views inflation targeting not just as a rule but as a framework for the conduct of monetary policy, and it argues that currently available analyses of the experience of inflation targeting countries have serious weaknesses. One weakness is that those studies have not taken into account that regime changes may alter the quantitative and qualitative interaction among small, open economies and the rest of the world. Another weakness is that those studies have not recognized that the extraction of common trends and cycles is contingent on the nature of the monetary policy regime. It is likely that inflation targeting frameworks may imply a new beneficial trend in monetary policy making. This suggests that if the international environment becomes again hostile to low inflation in the future, an inflation targeting framework may become a viable alternative to a central bank that remains committed to price stability.     

HEALTH CARE IN THE UNITED STATES: WHY IS SUPPLY SO PRICE INSENSITIVE?

Health spending as a percentage of gross domestic product in the U.S. economy is growing, from 5% in 1960 to about 16% in the current period, and it is predicted to grow to as much as 30% in 2050. Then why is the supply of health care in the United States so insensitive to steeply rising prices? This paper conducts an econometric study to show that high health‐care costs have an adverse impact on labor productivity, causing a negative production externality in all industries. So, can the rising cost of health‐care affect the U.S. comparative advantage? The paper seeks answers to these questions in a general equilibrium model and finds that the labor productivity shock is responsible for the sluggish or declining supply of health care. Consumers are able to afford less health care due to a possible decline in real wages. U.S. comparative advantage becomes a nonissue, provided that the equilibrium is stable in spite of a negatively sloped health‐care supply curve. Negative externality, leading to market failure, may be addressed in two alternative ways. (JEL F11, I11, I12, I18)     

THE INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CHINESE FOOD ECONOMY: SOCIALISTIC OR CAPITALISTIC?

The controversy over the transformation of socialism recently has focused on China. The analysis here uses an industrial ORGANIZATION framework to portray the key features of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. The structures of ownership, supply, and demand and the process of price formation are analyzed to explicate the ramifications of the reform process and the changing patterns of government intervention and market forces in the Chinese food economy. An examination of this. fusion reveals a number of implications for international socialism.     

DEMOCRACY IN REFORMING COLLAPSED COMMUNIST ECONOMIES: BLESSING OR CURSE?

From a political standpoint, post-communists systems include both democratic and non-democratic nations. From an economic standpoint, they include both collapsing and expanding economies. All four logical possibilities exist for post-communist political and economic systems. The Czech Republic is an example of a democratic political system and an expanding economic system. Russia is an example of a democratic political system and a collapsing economic system. China is an example of a non-democratic political system and an expanding economic system. North Korea is an example of a non-democratic political system and a collapsing economic system. The fact that all four logical possibilities exist suggests that democracy is neither necessary nor sufficient for good economic performance. However, democracy is certainly a value in itself that requires certain basic institutions, including free and fair elections, the orderly transfer of power to those elected, the rule of law and the separation of powers, and the protection of individual freedoms and basic liberties, including those of speech, press, religion, assembly, property, and economic opportunity. Economic policies, rather than the form of government, determine the results for an economy. Russia and China, the two largest socialist economies, followed very different economic policies and experienced radically different outcomes. The failure of “shock therapy” economic policies for transition to a market economy in Russia is related to its use of the Washington Consensus SLP package of stabilization, liberalization, and privatization, as recommended by the World Bank and the IMF. The success of Deng's economic policies for transition to a market economy in China is related to its rejection of the SLP in favor of the ICG approach of institutions, competition, and government. Other interesting cases are those of the Czech Republic and North Korea. Those nations in which both political and economic reforms have been simultaneously successful, such as the Czech Republic, are generally small, homogeneous European nations with a historic work ethic, with a relatively short period of socialism, and with support from neighboring advanced industrialized nations. There is great difficulty in simultaneously establishing both democracy and a market economy without a very special set of circumstances. Thus, it is necessary to determine a sequence for political and economic reform. Ultimately, however, the ideal of both democracy and a market economy may be attained even in nations without special circumstances and external assistance, with Russia eventually turning its economy around and with China eventually reforming politically into a democratic nation.     

A WARM EMBRACE OR THE COLD SHOULDER? WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES IN ETHNIC ENCLAVES

This paper examines how immigrant enclaves influence labor market outcomes. We examine the effect of variation in ethnic concentration across counties and county subdivisions on both immigrant earnings and employment using the non‐public use, 1‐in‐6 sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. We find that there is heterogeneity in enclave impacts by ethnic group and skill composition of the enclave. While some groups tend to suffer from lower wages and employment propensities when residing in areas with larger ethnic concentrations, others have higher wages and improved employment opportunities in enclaves. (JEL J61, J15, R23)     

REMITTANCES AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: SUBSTITUTES OR COMPLEMENTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Recent studies indicate that the effect of migrants’ remittances on the economic growth of receiving countries depends negatively on the level of development of the domestic financial sector. In this paper, we introduce a new indicator of financial development to measure the efficiency of the domestic banking system, and find the existence of complementarity between remittances and bank efficiency in economic growth, such that remittances promote growth only in countries whose banks function well. This result is robust to controls for other traditional measures of financial depth and institutional quality indicators.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: BALANCING THE BIASES?

In the past several years, efforts have been made to introduce the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993) SNA ) in most of the formerly centrally planned economies. In doing so, a number of problems have emerged, some of which are particular to the situation of these countries. Some of these problems will probably cause overestimates of national accounts variables, others will cause underestimates, and it would be purely coincidental if these effects cancel out. This paper discusses the most disconcerting issues in this situation, and possible solutions.     

TO REGULATE OR TO DEREGULATE? THE ROLE OF DOWNSTREAM COMPETITION IN UPSTREAM MONOPOLY VERTICALLY LINKED MARKETS

This paper attempts to cast light to the effect of monopoly regulation in Cournot markets compared to its effect in Bertrand markets. To this purpose, we use a simple model of a vertically linked market, where an upstream regulated natural monopoly is trading via two‐part tariff contracts with a downstream duopoly. Combining our results to those of the existing literature on deregulated markets, we argue that when the downstream competition is in prices, efficiency dictates regulating the monopoly with a marginal cost based pricing scheme. However, this type of regulation leads to significant welfare loss, when the downstream market is characterized by Cournot competition.     

MIRACLE OR MIRAGE? FOREIGN SILVER,CHINA'S ECONOMY AND GLOBALIZATION FROM THE SIXTEENTH TO THE NINETEENTH CENTURIES

Abstract.   Ming–Qing China has been seen as positioned at the very centre of the process of early globalization partly due to China's huge appetite for foreign silver for its own commercialization. The findings of this study challenge this view head on by showing that not only did China not import and use nearly as much foreign silver as commonly imagined, silver moved into and also out of China. It served at best as a secondary currency and often worked on a barter basis. The sector which retained the lion's share was the pawnshop for short-term credit mainly for consumption.     

DRIVERS OF PAYMENT PATTERNS AT THE POINT OF SALE: STABLE OR NOT?

This research shows that it is key to have up‐to‐date information on payment behavior per type of point of sale (POS) and on how this behavior is driven by sociodemographic factors and perceived payment instrument attributes. Based on 2004 and 2014 data of the Netherlands, we find substantial shifts in the drivers of payment behavior. The sociodemographic factors behind the adoption of the credit card and debit card have changed, especially for the latter payment card. In addition, there are substantial shifts in the effects of sociodemographic factors and perceived relative payment attributes on which payment instrument consumers most often use. Shifts in payment behavior depend on the type of POS. Overall, we find that safety has become more important for payment behavior. The extent to which payment behavior depends on user‐friendliness and speed has somewhat decreased. (JEL C25, D12, E42)     

WHERE ARE THE WOMEN? GENDER,LABOR, AND DISCOURSE IN THE NOIDA EXPORT PROCESSING ZONE AND DELHI

Abstract

Export processing zones (EPZs) are like islands of globalization. Much of the literature on EPZs and export-oriented industries (EOIs) notes a preponderance of women who are constructed as “cheap,” “nimble fingered,” and “docile” labor. This literature is dominated by socialist feminist thinkers, and this paper argues that there is a need to incorporate the insights of postmodern feminist thinkers. The article focuses on the role that language, discourse, and subjectivity play in the gendering process in handmade jewelry production in the Noida Export Processing Zone (NEPZ) and in the ranch production units related by common ownership in Delhi, India. It thus gives “voices” to women and men, and brings out their agency in structuring the labor market. The study confirms that gender division of labor is a product of discursive and material practices that are reproduced through discourses into which different actors invest, and that feed into the gendered subjective identities of these actors.     

MATCHING FUNCTION FOR THE JAPANESE LABOUR MARKET: RANDOM OR STOCK–FLOW?

This paper estimates outflow equations for the unemployed and job vacancies under random and stock–flow matching using Japanese data. We find that for the outflow of the unemployed, the stock–flow matching model fits better than the random matching model at the quarterly frequency, but not at the monthly frequency. In contrast, the outflow of vacancies is affected by the stock of the unemployed as well as its inflow at both monthly and quarterly frequencies. In addition, we calculate the exit rates of the unemployed and job vacancies to show the relationship between the exit rates and the durations of unemployment and job vacancies.     

“SWEEPING THE HEAVENS FOR A COMET”: WOMEN,THE LANGUAGE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY,AND HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE US

Abstract

The importance of increased levels of education in improving the status of women throughout the world is well established. Higher levels of education are associated with lower birth rates, higher incomes, and greater autonomy for women. Yet, women's struggle to have a voice in higher education has been fraught with difficulties in the US and worldwide, particularly in overcoming widely held perceptions that limit their entrance into certain academic fields, tenured positions, and elite universities. This essay examines the role political economy has played in providing narratives that rationalize women's limited participation in higher education. By examining the representation of women in the academic culture of the nineteenth- and twentieth-century US, we can perhaps better understand women's struggle to obtain an authoritative voice in higher education worldwide.     

DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN MALAYSIA: WHAT CAUSES THE POSTCRISIS SLUMPS?

This paper examines the determinants of private investment in Malaysia, with an emphasis on the postcrisis investment slumps. A static private investment function is derived from the neoclassical framework, with appropriate modifications to account for the structural features observed in the country. To introduce dynamics into the model, we adopt a cost minimization problem, which assumes firms optimize investment levels with respect to a quadratic loss function. The results suggest that the availability of financial resources in the economy has a significant positive impact on private investment. Macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a negative influence on the investment climate in the private sector. Both foreign direct investment and public investment are found to have a complementary effect on private investment. Consistent with the prediction of the neoclassical model, a higher level of aggregate output raises private investment, whereas the user cost of capital has the opposite impact. (JEL O16, O53)     

UPLIFTING THE RACE THROUGH DOMESTICITY: CAPITALISM,AFRICAN-AMERICAN MIGRATION,AND THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY IN THE GREAT MIGRATION ERA OF 1916—1930

Abstract

The transformation of African Americans into a working-class population began during the World War I Great Migration era. In response to the rise in racial intolerance and the urgency of migrants’ needs, the Pittsburgh Urban League was formed in 1918 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Using a historical case study, this article suggests that the League attempted to promote domesticity among married migrant women for the purpose of racial uplift. This paper examines the implications of this strategy for migrant households and Pittsburgh industry. The study explores the relationship between patriarchy and capitalism in the formation of working-class families by discussing the role of racial ideologies in this process. The author argues that studies of white women’s domesticity and reproductive labor also must address the ways in which race has affected their incorporation into capitalist class systems in countries where race is a central organizing feature of the political economy.     

ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR FIRMS IN OPPRESSIVE AND CORRUPT STATES: INFORMALITY OR FORMALITY VIA BUSINESS ASSOCIATIONS?

Firms operating in oppressive conditions such as those in the transition countries often take advantage of informality, making unofficial payments to officials and underreporting their sales for tax purposes. This paper argues that business associations may constitute a more transparent, efficient, and formal alternative. Empirical support for the argument is provided based on firm level data on several thousand firms from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys in 25 transitions countries for 2002 and 2005. We show that, despite their often rather bad reputation, business associations tend to play a rather positive role, helping firms to reduce both having to make unofficial payments and underreporting of sales for tax purposes. ( JEL D2, D7, L2, P2, P3)     

RENAISSANCE OR REQUIEM: IS NUCLEAR ENERGY COST EFFECTIVE IN A POST‐FUKUSHIMA WORLD?

In the aftermath of Fukushima, decisions to slow or stop the future use of nuclear power have not been based on rational economic analysis. We find that there are cost‐effective technologies that would greatly mitigate future natural disasters. Even if the U.S. nuclear industry adopted new safety technologies and paid the full cost of insurance and borrowing, it is more efficient to continue to use existing nuclear plants than to replace them with new fossil fuel plants. However, new nuclear plant costs can exceed fossil fuel alternatives if the price of carbon emissions is below $118/ton. (JEL Q40, Q48, Q54)