WHEN DOES DETERMINACY IMPLY EXPECTATIONAL STABILITY?

Since the introduction of rational expectations, there have been issues with multiple equilibria and equilibrium selection. We study the connections between determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium and learnability of that equilibrium in a general class of purely forward‐looking models. Our framework is sufficiently flexible to encompass lags in agents' information and either finite horizon or infinite horizon approaches to learning. We are able to isolate conditions under which determinacy does and does not imply learnability and also conditions under which long‐horizon forecasts make a clear difference for learnability. Finally, we apply our result to a relatively general New Keynesian model.     

BOARD GOVERNANCE: DOES OWNERSHIP MATTER?

Good governance is crucial to achieving an organization's mission. Nevertheless, little is known about how the structure of governance is influenced by the nonprofit (NPO) or for‐profit ownership (FPO) structure of an organization, partly because they tend to be active in different sectors. In this paper we overcome this challenge by using data from a global sample of 392 microfinance institutions. The results show that the average NPO has a larger board, more female directors, and a higher number of board meetings than the average FPO. Moreover, where there are larger boards and more frequent board meetings, this has a positive effect on the financial performance of NPOs. It is thus confirmed that ownership structures influence boards’ characteristics and that some board mechanisms are more efficient in some ownership structures than in others. An effective board design should thus be based on a firm's ownership structure.     

DOES TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS MAGNIFY REGIONAL DISPARITIES?

We study how technological progress in manufacturing and migration costs interact to shape the space economy. Rising labor productivity in the manufacturing sector fosters the agglomeration of activities, whereas falling transport costs associated with technological and organizational innovations foster their dispersion. Since these two forces have been at work for a long time, the final outcome must depend on how drops in the costs of producing and trading goods interact with the various costs borne by migrants. Various extensions show the robustness of these conclusions.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS?

Industrial competitiveness (IC), reflecting a country's ability to produce and export manufactures competitively, is closely associated with economic growth. How does globalization affect IC? While the topic is of great importance, empirical studies on the issue in the literature have been limited. This article attempts to close the gap by estimating the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade with cross‐country data in 1985 and 1998. Taking advantage of a recently constructed IC index, we estimate several regression models of effects of FDI and trade on industrial performance. Results suggest that FDI and trade have a positive impact on IC, and increasing integration with the world economy through FDI and trade contributes to better industrial performance. (JEL F02, F10, F21, L60)     

ENROLLMENT AT HIGHLY SELECTIVE PRIVATE COLLEGES: WHO IS LEFT BEHIND?

This study examines the enrollment decisions of freshmen applicants to highly selective private colleges relative to highly selective public colleges. The empirical analysis shows that college enrollment varies by family income—in particular, low-income students with demonstrated financial need are less likely to enroll at private colleges, controlling for other factors including race and financial aid. Grant aid tends to have a moderating effect but the amount of aid under the existing college pricing and financial aid system appears to be inadequate. This finding provides support for recent revamping of financial aid offerings to low-income students by some highly selective private colleges. In addition, the results suggest that while family income appears to be a strong determinant of enrollment at these colleges, race does not seem to play a role . ( JEL I21)     

DOES TRADE ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

The U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program provides workers who have lost their jobs due to increased trade with income support and training, job search, and relocation benefits. This paper uses data collected by the Department of Labor on TAA beneficiaries to provide the most recent econometric evaluation of the effectiveness of the TAA program. Summary statistics suggest that the TAA program successfully targets displaced workers who have a greater difficulty finding new employment. However, using propensity score matching techniques we find that while the required training component of the program improves the employment outcomes of beneficiaries, on average the TAA program has no discernible impact on the employment outcomes of the participants. (JEL F16)     

DOES POPULATION AGEING PROMOTE FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross‐country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (15–64) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita. Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (35–54) relative to the younger working age population (15–34) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime‐to‐younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered.     

DOES RELIGIOSITY AFFECT SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL COMPROMISE?

Does religiosity affect adherents' attitude toward political compromise? To address this question and overcome the potential simultaneity of religious activity and political attitudes, we exploit exogenous variation in the start date of the Selichot (“Forgiveness”), a period in which many Jews, including nonadherents, take part in an intense prayer schedule. Using a two‐wave survey, we find that an increase in the salience of religiosity leads to the adoption of more hard‐line positions against a land‐for‐peace compromise. Examining several potential mechanisms for this attitudinal shift, our evidence points to the impact of the intensified prayer period on adherents' tolerance for risk.     

DOES DEFLATION IMPINGE ON A GOVERNMENT'S FISCAL STANDING?

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with money to investigate theoretically under what conditions deflation impinges on a government's fiscal standing. Focus is placed on an upper bound that is compatible with a no Ponzie game condition for the government and an equilibrium. A comparative dynamics analysis demonstrates that if a government's fiscal deficit is not so high, deflation has a negative impact on the upper bound, while if a government's fiscal deficit exceeds a critical level, deflation rather improves it. The critical level depends on a time stream of disposable real incomes and a preference parameter.     

APPARENT BIAS: WHAT DOES ATTITUDE POLARIZATION SHOW?

Many, though not all, experiments have found that exposing groups of subjects who disagree to the same evidence may cause their initial attitudes to strengthen and move further apart, or polarize. Some have concluded that findings of attitude polarization show that people process information in a biased manner so as to support their initial views. We argue that, on the contrary, polarization is often what we should expect to find in an unbiased Bayesian population, in the context of experiments that find polarization.     

DOES SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL RESEARCH REDUCE MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY?

This paper explores whether conducting scientific and technical (S&T) research reduces the volatility of output growth. The paper finds robust evidence that output volatility is significantly lowered by a country's production of S&T publications. The results show that the effect of S&T publications on output volatility is particularly strong in middle‐income, OECD and other high‐income countries. However, for East‐Asian, low‐income and sub‐Saharan African countries the effect is either weak or absent. These results provide strong evidence that not only OECD and other high‐income countries are actively engaged in S&T research, emerging developing countries are also conducting S&T research, which is effective in reducing output volatility. The results are robust to adding a host of control variables, various subsamples and different estimation techniques.     

DO TAX CUTS ENCOURAGE RENT SEEKING BY TOP CORPORATE EXECUTIVES? THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper explores the role of tax policy in shaping incentives for executive effort (labor supply) and rent seeking within the firm. We develop a theoretical model that distinguishes between effort and rent‐seeking responses to income taxes, and provides a framework to estimate a lower bound for the rent‐seeking response. Using executive compensation and governance data, we find that rent seeking represents an important component of the response to changes in tax rates, especially among executives in firms with the worst corporate governance. (JEL D31, G30, H21)     

DOES TEACHER‐FAMILY EXPERIENCE AFFECT TEST SCORES?

Since families play a pivotal role in elementary schools, student learning may be influenced by how well the teacher knows a family and how well the parents know the teacher. We test this hypothesis by evaluating whether assignment to a teacher who has previously taught an older sibling affects test scores. We refer to teachers who have previously taught the older sibling as having “teacher‐family experience” when teaching the younger sibling. Using a novel data set that includes administrative data on students and teachers matched to family identifiers, we find that when the older sibling's teacher is teaching in the younger sibling's grade, 40% of younger siblings are assigned their older sibling teachers. We find that teacher‐family experience does not have any significant effects on test scores and we can statistically rule out small effects. (JEL I20)     

DOES CULTURE AFFECT ELECTORAL OUTCOMES? EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION COUNTRIES

Why do some societies fail to adopt “good” economic institutions? Recent literature points to the role of complementarities between social norms and proposed formal rules in advancing institutional change. To shed light on one potential mechanism, we track election performance of executive parties in up to 18 post‐communist democracies over 1991–2015 to test whether cultural attitudes influenced voters' response to market reform. We show that in more individualistic cultures, reform is associated with greater reward for the incumbent in the next election. The implication is that in democracies, voters select policies and institutions that are in line with prevailing culture. (JEL O17, P35, Z1)     

CORRUPTION AND MICROCREDIT INTEREST RATES: DOES REGULATION HELP?

Misunderstandings about the structure of microcredit interest rates continue to generate rich criticism of the industry's high interest rates. Research has focused attention on the cost structure of interest rates and, more recently, on macroeconomic and macro‐institutional factors. While the cost structure is probably the most important determinant of interest rates, other factors also matter. In addition to other important results that usually validate the empirical literature, this paper finds that microcredit interest rates respond positively to corruption. The analysis shows that there is asymmetry between the effects of corruption, depending on whether or not the MFIs are regulated. While corruption has a positive and significant impact on interest rates of unregulated MFIs, it has a negligible impact on interest rates of regulated MFIs.     

HOW MUCH DOES GEOGRAPHY DEFLECT SERVICES TRADE? CANADIAN ANSWERS

We estimate geographic barriers to trade in nine service categories for Canada's provinces from 1997 to 2007 with novel high‐quality bilateral provincial trade data. The border directly reduces average provincial trade with the United States relative to interprovincial trade to 2.4% of its borderless level. Incorporating multilateral resistance reduces foreign trade relative to interprovincial to 0.1% of its frictionless potential. Geography reduces services trade some seven times more than goods trade overall. Surprisingly, intraprovincial (local) trade in services and goods is equally deflected upward, implying that the border increases interprovincial trade much more in services than goods.     

DOES THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE MATTER FOR DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS?

We find that sensitivity of fund flows and fund performance are both related to participants' right to choose their investments in defined contribution plans. Under the Mandatory Provident Fund system of Hong Kong, both employers and employees are required to contribute to a retirement account. Originally, employees' investment choices were restricted to a subset of funds chosen by their employers. The system was later modified so that employees are allowed to invest in any fund within the system. We present evidence that flows of fund have become more sensitive to past fund performance after this policy change, and that average fund performance in the system has also improved. Based on the improvement in fund performance, we estimate the accumulated cost of the lack of choice to be around 10% of the current total asset value of the system. (JEL G14, G18)