Pricing Lives: International Guideposts for Safety

Government agencies throughout the world use the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetise the mortality risk reduction benefits of government policies. The most reliable empirical estimates of the VSL using US labour market data are about US$10 million (year 2015 US dollars). Based on international estimates of the income elasticity of the VSL, one can transfer these values to other countries, leading to my VSL estimate for Australia of US$7.9 million, or A$10.0 million, which is over double the current Australia best‐practices value. Transferring US VSL estimates to other nations after accounting for income differences will boost global VSL estimates. Potential refinements of the VSL based on age and income are also feasible. The VSL could serve a pivotal role in promoting safety by valuing lives in litigation contexts, regulatory sanctions, and corporate risk analyses.     

Complementarity and the Measurement of Individual Risk Tradeoffs: Accounting for Quantity and Quality of Life Effects

This paper considers the factors responsible for differences with age in estimates of the wage compensation an individual requires to accept increased occupational fatality risk. We derive a relationship between the value of a statistical life (VSL) and the degree of complementarity between consumption and labor supplied when health status serves as a potential source of variation in this relationship. Our empirical analysis finds that variations in an individual’s health status or quality of life and anticipated longevity threats lead to significant differences in the estimated wage/risk tradeoffs. We describe how extensions to the specification of hedonic wage models, including measures for quality of life and anticipated longevity threats, help to explain the diversity in past studies examining how the estimated wage–risk tradeoff changes with age.      

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE MINIMUM WAGE: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FROM CANADIAN PROVINCES

Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime‐aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity. (JEL J30, J71, J23)     

Has Abe's Womanomics Worked?

The present paper estimates the effect of the Abe Cabinet's Womanomics policies that aimed to increase female labor supply and keep women on a career path. The policies are surveyed, and the effects are estimated using microdata from the Labor Force Survey combined with data at the prefectural level on day care provision. A difference‐in‐difference (DD) method is applied to uncover the impacts of the Abe Cabinet's policies. The rapid increase in the provision of infant care, especially in the urban area, has contributed to a strong increase in the labor participation of mothers with young children. In addition, DD method estimates show a strong increase in mothers with infants staying in permanent‐contract regular employment. A significant shortening of work hours of workers, especially of parents with infants, is observed, which enabled working mothers to maintain their employment status. A change in the gender wage gap in the Japanese labor market is observed, but much progress is still required to close the large wage gap.     

MINIMUM WAGES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This study is the first to explore the relationship between minimum wage increases and state gross domestic product (GDP). Using data drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1979 to 2012, I find no evidence that minimum wage increases were associated with changes in overall state GDP. However, this null finding masks substantial heterogeneity in the productivity effects of minimum wages across industries and over the business cycle. Difference‐in‐difference‐in‐difference estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a short‐run 1% to 2% decline in state GDP generated by lower‐skilled industries relative to more highly skilled industries. This differential appears larger during troughs as compared to that during peaks of the state business cycle. (JEL J3, J4, L5)     

Liberalization and the Changing Inter‐industry Wage Structure of the Organized Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973/74–2003/04

This paper examines the inter‐industry wage structure of the organized manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973/74–2003/04 by estimating the growth of average real wages for production workers by industry. Using wage data on 51 three‐digit industries, our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real wages per worker that are wholly deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential structural break(s) associated with the reforms. Our paper identifies three distinct regimes—pre‐reform, first phase reforms and second phase reforms, over which real wages have grown at varying rates for each industry. Our findings suggest that the inter‐industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post‐reform periods. The paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider seriously the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when studying any relationship between reforms and wages.     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

The Effect of Risk Context on the Value of a Statistical Life: a Bayesian Meta-model

This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically estimates correction factors for ‘out of context’ benefits transfer (BT) purposes. In the field of mortality risk reductions elicited willingness to pay values in one risk context, say road safety, are frequently applied in other risk contexts like air pollution. However, differences in risk perception and the population at risk across contexts are likely to result in diverging VSL estimates. In a meta-analysis of 26 international stated preference studies, a Bayesian model is estimated regressing contingent values for mortality risk reductions, originating from three different risk contexts, on the characteristics of the risk reduction itself and additional variables characterizing the underlying studies. A willingness to pay (WTP) premium for mortality risk reductions in the air pollution and general mortality risk context relative to improving road safety is observed. Evaluated at the mean, road safety VSL estimates should be multiplied by a factor 1.8 before being applicable in the air pollution context. Moreover, in an illustrative BT exercise we find limited overlap in the set of context specific predictive VSL distributions. Consequently, ‘out of context’ BT results in a substantial over- or underestimation of the VSL.     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.      

VALUING REDUCED RISKS TO CHILDREN: THE CASE OF BICYCLE SAFETY HELMETS

The protection of children's health has recently become a mandated priority for federal policy makers. To assess many of the regulations that affect children's health, policy makers need estimates of the monetary value of reducing mortality risks to children. Although the economics literature has provided many estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) for adult populations, it has provided none for school age children. This article studies the market for bicycle safety helmets and estimates for the first time a separate but comparable VSL for children and adults. We derive three estimates of VSL for each of three age categories (5 to 9, 10 to 14, and 20 to 59) that range from $1.1 to $4.0 million. In all cases, estimates for adults are highest, followed by estimates for the youngest children.     

Are estimates of labour demand functions mere statistical artefacts?

This paper considers the estimation of putative neoclassical aggregate labour demand functions using constant price value data. Regression results normally find that employment is negatively related to the real wage and that the constant‐output elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage is about ?0.3. This is taken as evidence that unemployment is the result of the real wage being too high, ceteris paribus. This paper shows that these estimates are purely the result of an underlying identity and cannot be interpreted as implying any causal relationship and, as such, they have no policy implications.     

MINIMUM WAGE EFFECTS ON PERMANENT VERSUS TEMPORARY MINIMUM WAGE EMPLOYMENT

We estimate the effect of minimum wages on employment using the Master Files of the Canadian Labour Force Survey over the recent period 1997–2008. Particular attention is paid to the differences between permanent and temporary minimum wage workers—an important distinction not made in the existing literature. Our estimates for permanent and temporary minimum wage workers combined are at the lower end of estimates based on Canadian studies estimated over earlier time periods, suggesting that the adverse employment effects are declining over time for reasons discussed. Importantly, the adverse employment effects are substantially larger for permanent compared to temporary minimum wage workers; in fact they fall almost exclusively on permanent minimum wage workers. (JEL J30)     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

Which Gender Wage Gap Estimates to Trust? A Comparative Analysis

The aim of this paper is to compare estimates of the adjusted wage gap from different methods and sets of conditioning variables. We apply available parametric and non‐parametric methods to LFS data from Poland for 2012. While the raw gap amounts to nearly 10 percent of the female wage; the adjusted wage gap estimates range between 15 percent and as much as 23 percent depending on the method and the choice of conditional variables. The differences across conditioning variables within the same method do not exceed 3pp, but including more variables almost universally results in larger estimates of the adjusted wage gaps. Methods that account for common support and selection into employment yielded higher estimates of the adjusted wage gap. While the actual point estimates of adjusted wage gap are slightly different, all of them are roughly twice as high as the raw gap, which corroborates the policy relevance of this methodological study.     

Does the labour supply of wives respond to husbands' wages? Canadian evidence from micro data and grouped data

Abstract. Using micro data and grouped data, we assess the extent to which Canadian wives adjusted their labour supply in response to changes in husbands' wages during the period 1980‐2000. Grouped data parameters based on weighted least squares and the unbiased‐error‐in‐variables estimator developed by Devereux (2004, 2007a,b) yield cross‐wage elasticities that are substantially higher (in absolute value) than those derived from OLS regressions run on micro data. Both grouping estimators indicate that the labour supply of Canadian wives responded strongly to changes in husbands' wages during the 1980s. For the 1990s, our estimates of wives' cross‐wage elasticity display greater dispersion.     

WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE?

I analyze changes in the target efficiency of the federal minimum wage over the past 25 years. Using static simulation methods I find that minimum wage target efficiency is currently close to its 25‐year peak—of the total monetary benefits generated by a 12% increase in the federal minimum wage, 16.8% would flow to workers in poverty. This exceeds the least target efficient year over this period by 4.7 percentage points and is only 0.6 percentage points below the peak. Furthermore, I find a very strong positive relationship between minimum wage target efficiency and the real federal minimum wage. The implication is that, from an efficiency standpoint, a good time to raise the minimum wage is when it is already high. This discovery raises the possibility that the minimum wage increases the employment of low‐skilled poor individuals relative to the employment of low‐skilled non‐poor individuals. Moreover, this discovery may bolster the rationale for an indexed minimum wage whereby it is prevented from falling to less efficient levels. (JEL J21, J31, J38)     

Technological Change and Wages in China: Evidence from Matched Employer–Employee Data

The relationship between research and development (R&D) intensity and wages is examined using a unique matched employer–employee dataset. The ordinary least squares estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in R&D intensity is associated with an increase in the hourly wage rate between 3.4% and 6.9% for the full sample, depending on the exact specification. The instrumental variable estimates are that a one standard deviation increase in R&D intensity is associated with an increase in the hourly wage rate between 5.5% and 11.4%. The wage elasticity with respect to R&D intensity is found to be higher in larger firms as well as for better educated workers and workers with technical skills. Consistent with the rent‐sharing hypothesis it is also found that the wage elasticity with respect to R&D intensity is higher for workers who belong to the Communist Party or union.     

Aggregation Biases in Estimates of the Value per Statistical Life: Evidence from Longitudinal Matched Worker-Firm Data in Taiwan

This study uses a unique longitudinally-linked employer–employee dataset to estimate the magnitude of bias in estimating the value per statistical life (VSL) that arises from the conventional use of industry-average occupational risk. This unique dataset, covering workers in Taiwan over the period 1998–2002, allows us to distinguish among potential sources of bias including omitted variables and to control for the potential endogeneity of firm-specific job risk with respect to unobserved worker and firm characteristics. We find that VSL estimates based on risk data aggregated by three-digit manufacturing SIC codes are biased downward by an order of magnitude compared with estimates using firm-specific risk that control for endogeneity.     

Value of a Statistical Life—the Case of Poland

This study investigates the relationship between wages and the risk of work-related death for male blue-collar workers. The size of the premium for risk and its statistical significance depend heavily on the inclusion of industry dummy variables into the regression. Irrespective of the type of risk variable used, controlling for industry at a finer breakdown lowers the price of risk and its statistical significance. Estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) proved to be more robust when an aggregated risk measure at three-digit occupational level was used. In this case, the VSL varied from 0.79 million USD (for the model with industry dummy variables at the three-digit level) to 2.41 million USD (for the model without industry dummy variables). To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study estimating VSL using the compensating wage differential approach for countries in Central-Eastern Europe.     

Teen families,welfare transfers,and the minimum wage: evidence from Canada

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of welfare transfers and the minimum wage on teen family formation by pooling provincial data from Canada between 1990 and 2005. OLS estimates suggest that welfare transfers have had limited impact on teen births. On the other hand, a 10% increase in the minimum wage is significantly correlated with a 3%–5% rise in teen birth rates. This finding is explained by further regressions, which reveal that an increase in the minimum wage is significantly associated with (1) higher earnings among male teens, (2) an increase in teen marriage rates, and (3) an increase in fertility among married teens but not among unmarried females. Finally, estimates based on the 2003 and 2005 waves of the Canadian Community Health Surveys demonstrate that married teens are more likely to engage in sex as well as unprotected intercourse in comparison with single teens.