Soft budget constraints and strategic interactions in subnational borrowing: Evidence from the German States, 1975-2005

Cooperative federations are usually characterized by the existence of bailout guarantees and intergovernmental transfer schemes. This paper explores whether such features of cooperative federations lead to subnational soft budget constraints using panel data from the German States covering the 1975-2005 period. The methodology is based on the premise that subnational governments’ borrowing will exhibit vertical and horizontal strategic interactions if they operate under soft budget constraints. Therefore, a test for strategic interactions in subnational borrowing can be used to infer whether a cooperative federation like Germany is susceptible to soft budget constraints. The results suggest that state borrowing in Germany exhibited horizontal but not vertical interactions during the time-frame of the analysis. This indicates (i) that German States faced soft budget constraints and (ii) that they were more concerned about the likelihood of a bailout than about its volume.     

Optimal selling mechanisms with countervailing positive externalities and an application to tradable retaliation in the WTO

We study revenue-maximizing mechanisms for a seller who sells an indivisible good to several buyers with positive, type-dependent and countervailing allocative externalities. To cope with the difficulty of types obtaining reservation utilities being endogenously determined, we first solve a minimax version of the seller’s problem by generalizing Myerson’s characterization techniques for the non-regular case. The solution is then shown to solve the seller’s original maximin problem as well in our setting. We find that the seller’s optimal mechanism normally features bunching even in the regular case and the type with the lowest expected payoff is typically not an extreme type. As an important illustration of our characterization procedures, we apply our results to the problem of selling retaliation rights in the WTO.     

Adverse effects of leverage and short-selling constraints in a financial market model with heterogeneous agents

This paper investigates the impact of leverage and short-selling constraints on financial market stability. Investors׳ demand is modelled in a well-known asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. In particular, I generalise the heterogeneous agents model of Brock and Hommes (1998) and Anufriev and Tuinstra (2013) to allow for leverage constraints as well as a short-selling tax. I consider two examples of adaptive belief systems describing the coevolution of prices and investors׳ beliefs. First, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalist and chartist traders, demand constraints have potential adverse effects and may restrict the stabilising fundamentalist strategy such that mispricing and price volatility increase. Second, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalists, optimists and pessimists with fixed beliefs, demand constraints drive down price volatility, but mispricing remains. The results suggest the stabilising effects of demand constraints in financial markets are limited. Only if asset prices are too high compared to fundamentals, policy makers should consider constraining leverage ratios in order to deflate financial bubbles.     

Long-term efficiency of public service provision in a context of budget restrictions. An application to the education sector

This paper proposes an extension of the non-parametric long-term evaluation of efficiency, the conditional panel data DEA model, which takes into account the panel structure of the data and, at the same time, incorporates the role of contextual factors in the estimations. Its application to the education sector for the period analyzed (2009–2014) shows the utility of this method, since it obtains more representative efficiency scores for the complete time-period, is more robust to external shocks, and allows improvements to the decision-making process in the allocation of the budget available for the public education sector. The results are clear and present an evolution towards the convergence of the efficiency scores, precisely in a time period when hard budget constraints severely reduced the resources available for public schools.     

A new business model for sustainable development: an exploratory study using the theory of constraints in Nordic organizations

The business model in use by many large companies has changed significantly from that of a decade ago and has incorporated environmental and social aspects of performance. However, given these achievements, are there unavoidable inhibitions in the contemporary business model that mean that even exemplar corporations cannot become sustainable? A key issue is consumption without limits, but can businesses do anything about this? The UK Government's Sustainable Development Commission identifies this as an issue. There is a need for an open‐minded consideration of business fundamentals to consider this issue as part of an identification of criteria for a sustainable business model. This is an account of an exploratory study undertaken to identify a new business model for sustainable development. The theory of constraints was adapted to provide the project's methodology that made use of semi‐structured interviews and secondary material. The cloverleaf account of sustainable development was used to structure and analyse sustainable development information. The organizations studied are all located in Nordic countries, since these countries are globally recognized for sustainable development achievements. Conclusions of the study acknowledge that, whilst specific new management tools and approaches of Nordic organizations do help sustainable development, it is the social context in which these organizations function that is a critical factor. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

资源约束下北京都市产业的发展

北京市是一个水资源短缺、土地资源有限,电力、煤炭、天然气等能源主要靠外部供给,环境保护要求非常高的城市.通过对北京都市产业的发展现状及存在的问题进行分析,基于北京都市产业在北京工业中的重要性,提出了在资源约束下北京都市产业发展的相应对策.     

Analysis of capacity constraints on the backlog bullwhip effect in the two-tier supply chain: a Taguchi approach

This paper investigates the impact of capacity constraints and safety stock on the backlog bullwhip effect in a model of a two-tier supply chain. One of the most commonly applied methodologies to study the various aspects of the Beer Game model is the control theoretic technique. It is clear that these control theoretic models are linear and cannot deal with non-linearities, such as capacity constraints. Thereafter, simulation experiments together with Taguchi design of experiments are performed to study non-linear impacts of capacity constraints in a two-tier supply chain. This research gives supply chain operations’ managers and designers a practical way to develop a trade-off between capacity and safety stock at different echelons and to take better decisions about their capacity and safety stocks. Future work should investigate the total cost implications of capacity constraints and safety stocks in a multi-echelon supply chain.     

Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for one step ahead forecasts. Under continuous breaks, our approach largely recovers exponential smoothing weights. Under discrete breaks, we provide analytical expressions for optimal weights in models with a single regressor, and asymptotically valid weights for models with more than one regressor. It is shown that in these cases the optimal weight is the same across observations within a given regime and differs only across regimes. In practice, where information on structural breaks is uncertain, a forecasting procedure based on robust optimal weights is proposed. The relative performance of our proposed approach is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application to forecasting real GDP using the yield curve across nine industrial economies.     

Budget regimes and internal governance: considerations for the sustainability of fiscal policy

In a fiscal policy set-up with Ricardian equivalence and rational expectations, the decision-making of private agents is based on the knowledge that current deficits will be met with future tax increases or spending decreases. This view requires that the government's budget exhibit intertemporal balance, or that fiscal policy be sustainable. This paper examines the extent to which sustainability holds in the light of changes in the institutional structure of the budget process and changes in internal House governance rules. The results indicate that certain aspects of sustainability are related to the underlying institutional structure and governance of the budget process. The authors wish to thank the editors and three anonymous referees for their thoughtful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors remain our own.     

The politics of fiscal consolidation and reform under external constraints in the European periphery: comparative study of Hungary and Latvia

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the diverse experiences of fiscal consolidation under external constraints in Hungary and Latvia. The financial crisis that hit in the early years of the twenty-first century had a profound effect on the economies of many EU member states. The responses, however, were diverse. Some countries, such as Latvia, implemented deep consolidation within a relatively short amount of time, while retaining political stability. Other countries, such as Hungary, went through an extensive period of fiscal consolidation, and experienced a significant shift in domestic politics. This paper looks at the factors explaining the variety of responses to the crisis.     

Estimating high-dimensional demand systems in the presence of many binding non-negativity constraints

Two econometric issues arise in the structural estimation of consumer or producer demand systems in the presence of many binding non-negativity constraints. Firstly, most existing methods entail the evaluation of multivariate probability integrals. Secondly, the issue of statistical coherency must be addressed. We circumvent both of these issues using Gibbs’ Sampling, along with data augmentation and rejection sampling. We illustrate our method using several simulated data sets.     

Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

On the strategic use of risk and undesirable goods in multidimensional screening

A monopolist sells goods possibly with a characteristic consumers dislike (for instance, he sells random goods to risk averse agents), which does not affect the production costs. We investigate the question whether using undesirable goods is profitable to the seller. We prove that in general this may be the case, depending somehow on the correlation between agent types and aversion. This is due to screening effects that outperform this aversion. We analyze, in a continuous framework, several multidimensional cases.     

Optimal portfolio choice in the presence of domestic systemic risk: empirical evidence from stock markets

In this paper, we empirically investigate the consequences of domestic systemic risk for stock market investors. To tackle this issue, we consider two different investment strategies. One strategy is to be “crisis-conscious”, i.e., taking the possibility of systemic events into account, and the other one is to be “crisis-ignorant” and thus disregarding systemic risk. We compare the optimal portfolio choices and investment results of these strategies in an historical simulation, using almost three decades of historical stock price data. Our main findings are as follows: the crisis-conscious investor tends to choose less extreme portfolio weights for individual stocks than the ignorant investor. The overall risky investment is, however, of similar size for both. By ignoring the possibility of systemic events, the crisis-ignorant strategy performs significantly worse from the viewpoint of expected return as well as expected utility.     

Financial constraints and corporate investments during the current financial and economic crisis: The credit crunch and investment decisions of Slovenian firms

We investigate the effect of financial constraints on the investment decisions of Slovenian firms during the current financial and economic crisis. By estimating the error-correction model and the Euler-equation specification, we found that corporate investments were significantly affected by financial constraints during the crisis. The effect of financial constraints intensified in 2009 and alleviated slightly in 2010, although still being significantly more intense than before the crisis hit the economy. By estimating a switching regression model with unknown sample separation that enabled us to address the problem of judgemental sample separation, we were also able to estimate the error-correction model separately for financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms. The results indicate that financial constraints have a significant effect on both financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms, although corporate investments were more severely affected in financially constrained firms.     

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union

We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) with right-wing governments, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is mitigated; if the government is on the left, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is amplified; iii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iv) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.     

考虑声誉效应的外包中服务商激励机制

在考虑声誉的情形下,建立一个博弈模型,探讨了外包中服务商激励约束机制的内在机理。分析表明：声誉对服务商激励有重要影响,可以提高服务商在前期的努力程度,在某种程度上,声誉效应能很好地解决来自服务商的道德风险问题。同时,文章还提出了基于服务商声誉的约束机制建设的建议。     

Inside the queue:: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time–continuous place model of traffic congestion

This paper develops a continuous-time–continuous-place dynamic economic model of traffic congestion, based on car-following theory. The model integrates two archetype congestion technologies used in the economics literature: ‘static flow congestion’ and ‘dynamic bottleneck congestion.’ With endogenous departure times and a bottleneck along the route, ‘hypercongestion’ arises as a dynamic equilibrium phenomenon on the upstream road segment. Congestion tolls based on an intuitive dynamic and space-varying generalization of the standard Pigouvian tax rule can hardly be improved upon. A naïve application of a toll schedule based on Vickrey's bottleneck model performs much worse and reduces welfare in the numerical model.     

招投标中控制工程造价的方法——浅谈清单计价在控制造价中的重要作用

由于工程招标中的计价措施出现了不同于以往的变化,建筑行业相关的业主想要更好的掌控工程的造价并不断的增强对造价的控制效果,需要从两个方面着手,首先就是要实时的、精确的控制清单计价;其次就是要与市场的动向相结合,制定相应的操控措施。