Determinants of Geographic Voter Participation Rate Differentials: the 2014 Mid-Term Election

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American.     

An Inquiry into the Contemporary Differential between Female and Male Voter Turnouts

This study seeks to identify contemporary factors that systematically explain the difference in the ratio of the female-to-male voter participation rates, FVPR/MVPR, and the difference between the female and male voter participation rate levels, FVPR−MVPR, in the U.S. Using state-level data form the 2004 Presidential election, it is found that both FVPR/MVPR and FVPR−MVPR are an increasing function of the gender-specific unemployment rates, median earnings, educational attainment levels, population age 65 and over, and the presence of a female governor in the state and a decreasing function of the gender-specific divorce rates.      

The Poll Results Hypothesis

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to reflect the potential impact of the results of polls of likely voters’ Presidential candidate preferences on the expected benefits of voting and hence on the voter participation rate. This study introduces the poll results hypothesis: in any given state, given the existence of the Electoral College, the greater the lead of a principal Presidential candidate over his/her closest rival as revealed in polls of likely voters, the lower, for at least some portion of prospective voters, the expected gross benefits of voting in that state and hence the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. In a cross-section study of the 50 states during the 2004 general election, it is found, after allowing for a variety of other factors, that the greater the lead (as revealed in polls of likely voters) of either of the principal Presidential candidates over the other in any given state, the lower the voter turnout rate in that state.      

The Electoral College System, Political Party Dominance, and Voter Turnout, With Evidence from the 2004 Presidential Election

Within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” this study empirically investigates a hypothesis that asserts that within the context of the Electoral College System, the greater the degree to which either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party dominates the other in any given state, the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. Using the 2004 Presidential election as the study period, the analysis includes a number of economic and demographic variables. Using a different methodology than previous studies of voter turnout and the Electoral College System, as well as more current data, this study finds strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis. It also is suggested that, logically, the Electoral College System distorts the pattern of voter turnout across states.      

Net interstate population growth rates and the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis: New empirical evidence, 1990–2000

This study empirically investigates the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis as it might have applied to the pattern of net interstate population growth rates over the period 1990–2000. For the study period, it appears that the net state population growth rate has been an increasing function of the ratio of the total state plus local government outlays on public education in a state to that state's total state plus local government tax burden. Additional variables in the study, including the previous-period median single-family housing-price inflation rate, a measure of previous-period growth in real personal income per capita and certain quality-of-life variables, also prove to be significant determinants of the net population growth rate in a state. In this context, it appears that, for the study period, the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis played a significant role in determining state net population growth rates.     

Panel Data Analysis of Regional Differentials in the Registered Voter Turnout Rate and the Expected Benefits of Voting for Minorities

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. We seek to identify a source of this interstate variation, focusing upon the 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 general elections. Of note is that the latter two general elections featured a minority (i.e., African-American) nominee for president from one of the major political parties. Within the context of the rational voter model, we hypothesize that the presence of a minority candidate atop the ticket will boost minorities’ expected net benefits from voting, with the result that minority voter participation will be higher. Based on cross-sectional fixed-effects estimations, we find that states’ voter participation rates were unaffected by the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2000 and 2004 election cycles, while states’ voter participation rates were positively related to the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.     

Strong Presidential Approval or Disapproval Influencing the Expected Benefits of Voting and the Voter Participation Rate

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to identify and better understand key determinants of the expected benefits from voting and hence key determinants of the aggregate voter participation rate in the US. Using annual data for all years in the 1960–1997 study period, this study finds that the voter participation rate has been positively impacted by strong public approval or strong public disapproval of the incumbent President, a finding unique to this literature and study period. In addition, the aggregate voter participation rate has been positively impacted by such factors as the Gulf War, which is generally regarded as having been popular among the US electorate, and a rising unemployment rate. This study also finds the voter participation rate to have been negatively impacted by the publics dissatisfaction with government, as well as by the Watergate scandal.The author is indebted to Cassandra Copeland for helpful information, comments, and guidance.     

Poverty: Insurance Theory and the Medically Uninsured

The federal/state Medicaid program is designed to provide health insurance for the nation's poorest, yet between 15 and 20 percent of the population continue to have no health insurance. Classic utility-based insurance theory is examined to see if it well explains why some do and some do not purchase health insurance at the state level or if a host of other non-economic factors are needed. This pooled, cross-sectional time-series analysis shows that the state characteristics most strongly associated with the prevalence of a lack of health insurance is the percent of persons whose income falls below the poverty line, the percent of the state's population that is female and the percent of the population with only a high school education. This analysis suggests that the starting point for policies aimed at limiting the number of insured should be limiting poverty and perhaps recognizing the gender/education influence in designing state eligibility requirements.     

Expressiveness and voting: Alternative evidence

Using aggregate time series analysis, this empirical study extends the Copeland and Laband [2002] analysis of expressive voting. After allowing for economic considerations in the form of tax rates and inflation, it is found that even the aggregate voter participation rate may reflect emotional voting behavior. The Vietnam War, Watergate, public dissatisfaction with government, and the opportunity to participate in Presidential elections, each of which can be viewed at some level as an issue evoking emotional responses rather than mere cost-benefit computations, all prove to significantly affect voter participation rates.     

Race,class, and politics in the black community of Boston

Conclusion We found that there are indeed some slight differences in the electoral behavior of black voters when we separate them into high and low socio-economic areal categories based on the level of median income. These slight differences include turnout rates for primary and general elections and voter registration rates. The higher the socioeconomic status of the black electorate in Boston, the higher the turnout and registration rates for that area tended to be; however, this relationship was not found to be consistent among all the areas selected for study. Despite these differences in electoral behavior or “practices,” our areal model does not suggest any significant political schisms based on the sicioeconomic indicators used. Black voters tended to vote the same way on a number of city and state ballot questions, support the same candidates at both the city and state level, and vote the liberal preference on both issues and candidates regardless of socioeconomic background. In addition, there is some evidence that the higher a black voter is on the socioeconomic scale, the greater his or her tendency will be to vote the liberal position on various issues and candidates. Our model also suggests that black voters will tend to support black candidates regardless of some socioeconomic factors. If this model can be used as an indication of class differences in the black community, then our data show that socioeconomic criteria are not as salient as race in determining the political behavior and preferences of black voters.     

The electoral college and voter participation: Evidence on two hypotheses

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the electoral college on voter participation rates across states. Two hypotheses are tested. The first argues that in states where either the Democratic or Republican party strongly dominates the other, voter participation rates are reduced the greater the degree of domination. The second states that in states where neither party overwhelmingly dominates the other, the smaller the majority of the dominant party over the minority party, the greater the voter participation rate.     

Influence of the Number of Statewide Referenda Involving Emotionally-Charged Issues on Voter Turnout, 2006

The issue of same-sex marriage is an emotionally charged one. So is the issue of abortion. This is true to the point where it has resulted in several cases in the placement of statewide referenda on the ballot for voter approval or disapproval. This study tests the hypothesis that greater numbers of such emotionally charged referenda may increase voter turnout because they may elevate the expected gross benefits of voting by empowering “interested voters” while not significantly increasing the expected gross costs of voting. Using state-level data for all 50 states for the 2006 general election, and after allowing for a variety of economic and demographic factors, this study finds compelling evidence that the numbers of statewide referenda dealing with same-sex marriage and abortion did in fact significantly increase voter turnout.

On the microstructure of the german export boom: Evidence from establishment panel data, 1995–2002

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for exporting firms from manufacturing industries in one German federal state, Lower Saxony, to investigate the microstructure of the recent export boom. Looking at data for 1995/96–2001/02 it is demonstrated that a considerable number of plants start and stop exporting in each year, but that most of the export dynamics is due to positive and negative changes of exports in plants that continue exporting. A small fraction made of 4–5 percent of all exporting plants is responsible for around 70 to 80 percent of the gross increase in exports. Firms with expanding and contracting exports are found simultaneously in all broad sectors, technology classes and firm size classes. Patterns of export behavior differ widely between the plants over the periods investigated. JEL no. F14, E32     

Big philanthropy and the funding of black organizations

Conclusion The general overview of foundation giving to promote black interests and the specific look at the Ford-MARC relationship support the notion that few foundation grants will go to “controversial” or “political” projects. The Peterson Commission estimated that only three percent of all private foundation grants are “innovative” and an even smaller percentage are “politically controversial.” Most often, these projects usually become controversial after the grant is made. A 1971 Urban League study revealed that grants for human services made by private foundations to black and Spanish-speaking communities were disproportionately low when measured in terms of the per capita needs of the minority population. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic to expect Ford, Rockefeller Brothers, Mott, or Carnegie to redistribute income or become the “cutting edge of social change”.     

The lottery as an alternative source of state revenue

Conclusion In this paper the authors have developed an economic model of state lotteries that determines the probability of whether a given state will adopt a lottery or not, determines the probability of whether a given state is likely to adopt a lottery sooner rather than later, and determines the state's expected net spendable revenues generated by adopting and operating a lottery. The authors found that a given state will tend to adopt a lottery and will tend to adopt the lottery sooner, the higher the relative tax effort of the state, the higher the mean personal income of the state's residents (or the lower the fraction of the state's residents that are in poverty), the greater the restrictions on raising other taxes in the state, the greater the state's spendable revenue generated from parimutuel betting in the state, the larger the fraction of the state's border that is contiguous with other states with lotteries, and since 1980, the greater the annual number of tourists or visitors in the state.A state's expected net spendable revenue from adopting and operating a lottery is greater the higher the mean personal income of residents in the state, the greater the annual number of tourists or visitors in the state, the smaller the fraction of the state's border that is contiguous with other states with lotteries, and the smaller the parimutuel industry in the state. The ability of a given state's residents to cross the border to purchase lottery tickets in contiguous states, and the ability to engage in parimutuel betting in a state are substitutes for the purchase of lottery tickets in the given state and significantly reduce the expected net spendable revenue from adopting and operating a lottery in that state.From a policy making standpoint, legislators often appear to support the adoption of a lottery for their state without fully considering a realistic expected level of net spendable revenue that the proposed lottery is likely to generate for that particular state.⁸ Often these legislators apparently do not consider important determinants of expected lottery profits such as the level of personal income of state residents, the annual number of tourists in the state, and the presence or absence of adjacent states with lotteries. Also, legislators do not consider fully the impact that adopting a lottery will have on existing parimutuel betting industries in the state. Likewise, legislators apparently do not consider the negative impact of parimutuel betting on the expected net spendable revenue generated by the proposed lottery. Legislative decisions made in the absence of full information often tend to be inefficient decisions. The present study may encourage policy makers to become better informed on the issue of lottery adoption for their state.     

Bimodal issues,the median voter model,Legislator's ideology,and abortion

The median voter model is widely used in the public choice literature to explain legislator's behavior. According to the model, if voter preferences are unimodal, a vote-maximizing legislator should mirror the position of the median voter. However, the median voter model has not been tested on bimodal issues. This paper fills this critical void by empirically testing the applicability of the median voter model on an issue which clearly meets the criteria for being bimodal: abortion. Using a variety of attitudinal measures from large sample public opinion polls and constituency demographics, this study finds that Senate voting on the 1994 Freedom of Abortion Access bill was highly related to the senator's personal characteristics—especially ideology—and not to constituent opinion or demographics.     

Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis*

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long‐run and short‐run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom‐position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.     

Active citizen's income, unconditional income and participation under imperfect competition: a welfare analysis

Various types of basic income schemes are considered to compensatethe allocative inefficiencies induced by unemployment benefits.A dynamic general equilibrium model of a unionised economy isdeveloped in which participation to the formal labour marketis endogenous and the budget of the State has to balance. Itis shown that basic income schemes reduce the equilibrium unemploymentrate. Assuming that job-search is costly to monitor, the normativeanalysis suggests that only the active population should beeligible to the basic income. Introducing such an ‘activecitizen’s income’ can be a Pareto-improving reform.     

New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region

Aggregate trade data with breakdown into related and non‐related party components show that US multinational enterprises use different trading strategies in the China region relative to other countries. US trade with the China region in 2002–2007 is characterized by arm's‐length transactions. State‐level trade data show great variability in state engagement with the region through trade: exports to the region range from 1 to 28 percent of state exports. In addition, compared to exports to other countries, exports to the region are highly concentrated. At the extreme, for some states, 96–98 percent of exports to the region are computer and electronic products. Finally, gravity regressions show that state exports to Hong Kong are positively associated with the relative size of the Hong Kong‐born population in the states. There is no evidence that stricter labor regimes lead to lower state exports.