Characteristics of failed U.S. commercial banks: an exploratory study

This study uses survival analysis to determine how early the indications of bank failure can be observed. We find that banks with high loan to asset and high personal loan to assets ratios are more likely to survive. Older banks and banks with high real estate and agricultural loans, loan loss allowance, loan charges off and non‐performing loans to assets ratio are more likely to fail. It is possible to predict survival functions of <50% for failed banks, 3 years or less before failure. Moreover, we find that most of the variables present a behaviour that departs from Benford’s Law.     

A nonparametric approach to measurement of efficiency and technological change: The case of large U.S. commercial banks

The purpose of this paper is to derive the efficiency measures and the rate of technological change for a sample of large U.S. commercial banks by employing a nonparametric technique. This technique is used to construct a multiproduct production frontier relative to which the efficiency measures of the banks in the sample are calculated and the displacement of which over time provides a measure of the rate of technological change. The empirical results indicate that the relevant frontier shifted inward between 1980 and 1985 reflecting a high pace of technological advancement achieved by the banks in the sample. The pace varied significantly across the banks with some banks even regressing over time.     

中美商业银行财务状况的结构对比分析

中美银行在报表结构和信息披露上存在着很大的差异 ,在进行财务状况的对比前 ,首先就面临着数据项目的可对比性问题。因为会计制度以及银行具体开展的业务存在着差异 ,进行比较就要弥合不同。另外 ,对比业绩 ,不能单纯依靠ROA、ROE等指标进行对比 ,或者分解来分析 ,这会导致分析结果的局限性 ,所以要从结构上进行分析。     

商业银行金融创新的风险防范

经济的发展离不开金融的推动,而金融发展的动力在于创新,金融创新已经成为商业银行生存和发展的重要推动力。国内外商业银行的经营体制、管理模式、服务方式和产品创新日新月异,从传统的分业经营到提供一站式综合服务经营,从传统的资产负债管理到新兴的客户管理,从面对面的柜台服务到电子化远程服务,从单一的存贷款产品到为客户量身定制个性化和多样化的金融产品,创新贯穿于这些过程的始终。但商业银行在金融创新的同时,不可避免地遇到一定的风险,因此,必须识别和密切关注伴随创新的金融风险,加强风险管理,在防范风险的前提下支持金融创新,在创新中实现跨越式发展。     

Regularity conditions and scope estimates: The case of large-sized U.S. banks

We consider economies and diseconomies of scope for large U.S. banks by employing ordinary and hybrid translog cost functions. We examine the regularity conditions in output space where scope estimates are calculated and reject all models for which these conditions fail. The translog model always possesses violations. For the hybrid translog, violations occur in every case except one. In this one case, we find economies of scope.     

透析商业银行的金融创新与核心竞争力

商业银行的成长史就是一部不断创新的历史，金融创新是促进商业银行成长的重要的原动力和持续推动力，正是通过不断的金融创新，商业银行才实现了一次又一次的飞跃。本文从核心竞争力的理论界定出发．论证了商业银行的核心竞争力集中体现为金融创新能力，一家银行只有不断增强金融创新能力．才可能在激烈的市场竞争中持续获得差异化的竞争优势。在此基础上，文章阐述了金融创新与商业银行成长的关系．从加快制度创新、健全创新机制、完善创新手段、培育创新文化等几个方面对我国商业银行提升金融创新能力提了策略性建议。本刊分两期刊载全文．以飨读者。     

On the independence of assets and liabilities: Evidence from U.S. commercial banks, 1990–2005

Traditional asset–liability management techniques limit banks’ abilities to structure their balance sheets—but more recently, financial innovations have allowed banks the chance to manage interest rate risk without constraining their asset–liability choices. Using canonical correlation analysis, we examine how the relationships between asset and liability accounts at U.S. commercial banks changed between 1990 and 2005. Importantly, we show that asset–liability linkages are weaker for banks that are intensive users of risk-mitigation strategies such as interest rate swaps and adjustable loans. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that asset–liability linkages are stronger at large banks than at small banks, although these size-based differences have diminished over time, both because of increased asset–liability linkages at small banks and decreased linkages at large banks.     

生机勃勃的美国社区银行

欢迎光临小镇银行(Small TownBank),本行于1999年由阿拉巴马州的蓝道夫(Randolph)和克利本(Cleburne)两县(county)及周边地区的居民发起成立.银行的本部在Wedowee,在Ranburne、 Roanoke和Heflin设有分支机构.为了方便客户,四个办事处都提供所有的银行服务业务.小镇银行是一个真正的社区银行,我们非常欣喜地看到,我们可以叫出每一个客户的姓名.     

Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence

This paper presents a model of the portfolio and financing adjustments of U.S. banks over the business cycle. At the core of the model is a moral hazard problem between depositors/bank regulators and stockholders. The solution to this problem takes the form of shared management of the bank. Stockholders manage the bank's portfolio and the regulator manages the financing of the portfolio. The model predicts that portfolio adjustments are made to conform to the risk aversion of shareholders and financing adjustments are made to offset changes in portfolio risk. Regression evidence for 1955–2000 fails to reject these predictions.     

Systemic risk-shifting in U.S. commercial banking

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper puts forward the proposition that U.S. commercial banks use dividends as a mechanism to shift systemic risk to debt-holders and the...     

Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system

We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities to the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-six indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial-sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging the financial crisis. We also highlight several statistical properties of our approach: most importantly, our summary measures of system-wide vulnerabilities lead the credit-to-GDP gap (a key gauge in Basel III and related research) by a year or more. Thus, our framework may provide useful information for setting macroprudential policy tools such as the countercyclical capital buffer.     

透析商业银行的金融创新与核心竞争力(续)

三、提升我国商业银行金融创新能力的紧迫性分析 在经济金融体制转轨的宏观背景下，我国商业银行的金融创新经历了一个从无到有，从简单到综合化的过程，从产品创新、服务创新到管理创新、技术创新、体制创新和文化创新的不断跃升的过程。伴随这个进程的不断深入，我国商业银行的经营能力、竞争能力迅速提升，进而为商业银行的持续成长提供了强大的动力。     

我国商业银行应对金融危机的思考与对策

本文在简要分析当前国际金融危机成因及教训之后,着重对我国商业银行如何应对金融危机问题作了初步探讨。     

Concentration of world banking and the role of U.S. banks among the 100 largest, 1956–1980

During the past two decades, international banking activity has grown rapidly. With institutional change of such magnitude taking place, it is interesting and potentially useful to look at the nature of the change. This paper examines two dimensions of this change: the trend in concentration of banking assets in the world's largest banks, and the relative position of banks from various countries among the world's largest banks. The data indicate that the percentage of banking deposits accounted for by the world's largest banks generally has increased steadily since 1956. The data also reveal that the importance of U.S. banks within the world's largest banks has declined dramatically since 1956. It is suggested that this trend is the result of the readjustment to the distortions of WWII, the rise of the commercial paper market in the U.S., and the large number of U.S. banks compared to other countries.     

Tax planning, regulatory capital planning, and financial reporting strategy for commercial banks

We test whether banks' investment and financing policies canbe explained by tax status. We document changes in bank holdingsof municipal bonds in response to changes in tax rules relatingto deductibility of interest expense. We also document an associationbetween banks' marginal tax rates and their investment and financingdecisions, which is consistent with the existence of tax clienteles.However, banks do not sort themselves perfectly into investmentand financing clienteles because of adjustment costs. We positspecific types of transaction-cost impediments to tax planning,and document that banks apparently trade off these costs againsttax-planning benefits.     

中国商业银行现金管理服务的沿革和未来

一、现金管理的内涵 现金管理已成为公司金融活动和财政资金管理中使用频率较高的词汇。现金是指货币资金中最具流动性的部分，传统意义上是指现钞和银行活期存款，现已扩展到流动性较强的金融资产，即准现金。现金的概念日益复杂，现金管理的概念也在不断地变化，不同性质的单位或机构，对现金管理的理解和诉求也不尽相同。     

U.S. monetary policy indicators and international stock returns: 1970-2001

It is documented in the literature that U.S. and many international stock returns series are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy. Using monthly data, this empirical study examines the short-term sensitivity of six international stock indices (the Standard & Poor 500 [S&P] Stock Index, the Morgan Stanley Capital International [MSCI] European Stock Index, the MSCI Pacific Stock Index, and three MSCI country stock indices: Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom) to two major groups of U.S. monetary policy indicators. These two groups, which have been suggested by recent research to influence stock returns, are based on the U.S. discount rate and the federal funds rate. The first group focuses on two binary variables designed to indicate the stance in monetary policy. The second group of monetary indicators involves the federal funds rate and includes the average federal funds rate, the change in the federal funds rate, and the spread of the federal funds rate to 10-year Treasury note yield. Dividing the sample period (1970-2001) into three monetary operating regimes, we find that not all policy indicators influence international stock returns during all U.S. monetary operating periods or regimes. Our results imply that the operating procedure and/or target vehicle used by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) influences the efficacy of the policy indicator. We suggest caution in using any monetary policy variable to explain and possibly forecast U.S. and international stock returns in all monetary conditions.     

从金融危机看我国商业银行综合经营的变革方向

金融危机中美国金融机构遭受重创的自身原因是,公司治理失效及过度的激励机制,缺乏严格的内部风险管理机制,规模快速扩张带来整合和管理的巨大难题。同时,美国计划改革其金融监管体制,发布了《现代化金融监管体制蓝图》和《金融改革框架》。欧美金融机构的转型,尤其是花旗分拆不意味着综合经营模式的失败;基于金融深化发展和适应全球金融竞争的考虑,我国商业银行应当坚持综合经营和金融创新,金融监管的变革方向应是对金融创新带来的风险实施更加有效的监管。