风险感知、认知偏差与激励合约的分选决策

基于行为经济学视角,通过现场实验观察了具有异质性偏好的代理人对不同激励合约的选择决策,旨在探讨风险感知、认知偏差与激励合约选择决策的关系.研究发现,在具有相同激励强度的两种可变激励合约下,个体生产力水平并没有显著差异,影响激励合约选择决策的重要因素是对风险的感知,激励合约用于调节不同主体间的主观感知风险配置.结果显示,感知自己是高生产力的代理人倾向于避免与搭便车者合作而带来的损失,而感知自己是低能力的代理人则倾向于选择与高能力者合作的激励合约而增加个体收益;而无论是高能力者还是低能力者,当面对环境的不确定性对收益的巨大扰动时,都不约而同的选择了团队激励合约,这种对合作的偏好会随着扰动的增大而增强.同时,实验进一步证明了,人们对搭便车风险的主观感知与真实的搭便车风险之间存在一定的认知偏差,且该对个人生产力抱持乐观态度的代理人更倾向于选择个体计件激励合约.当企业因面对绩效工具的准确性不高,或绩效结果不确定性较大而不得不采用团队计件时,可以通过调节认知偏差的方式来改变代理人的主观预期,从而强化激励合约的自选择.     

信息样本的有偏采集如何导致决策偏见?——基于采样偏差的新视角述评北大核心CSSCISSCI

判断和决策中的许多偏见现象都源自于决策者无意识或者有意识地将有偏差的不完全观测样本当成有代表性的整体。近些年以Fiedler、Juslin、Hertwig、Denrell、Le Mens等为代表的学者重点关注了这一信息样本的有偏采集问题,为研究决策偏见的形成机理提供了新的采样偏差视角。本文对这一视角进行了系统性述评,厘清了"采样"的概念内涵,阐述了采样偏差导致决策偏见的基本机制,并对采样偏差引起的一种典型偏见效应——"描述—经验"差异进行了重点剖析,最后归纳了几个融入采样偏差思想的重要决策模型。作为结论,本文指出,决策偏见研究需要关注信息采样问题,尤其关注决策信息环境的哪些特征更易导致个体对信息样本的有偏采集。本文研究丰富了决策偏见的理论视角,对于洞悉和改进人类有限理性决策具有一定的实践指导意义。     

有限理性下的个体决策：一种分析框架

本文试图延续Shesheinski（2003）的分析思路，通过有限理性的模型化使有限理性下的个体决策重新与经济学的福利最大化和边际决策联系起来。在此基础上，我们先后分析了有限理性结构下的纯个体决策和集体行动中的个体决策问题。同时，对集体行动中的有限理性和理性决策进行初步的比较与分析。得出了有限理性下的最优决策规模要大于理性决策规模的结论。     

社会认同、偏好和经济行为——基于行为和实验经济学研究成果的讨论

社会认同理论的引入为实验经济学相关研究开拓了一个新的分支。通过假设个体间相互关联,社会认同因素直接作用于个体的偏好,进而改变经济决策,是对传统经济学理论的突破。总体来说,社会认同对偏好的塑造体现在两个方面：首先,社会认同会提升个体对内群的社会偏好,导致内群偏见,并使个体做出更加有利于内群的行为;其次,社会认同会改变个体对内群规则的偏好,进而导致不同维度的群体分类在经济决策上的差异。     

使用外语能降低经济决策偏差吗?来自实验室的证据

文章旨在检验使用外语对经济决策的两类核心问题,即不确定性（风险、模糊性）决策和跨期决策的偏差是否产生影响。两组实验被试被随机分到母语组和外语组,分别采用母语和外语完成一系列决策任务。实验结果发现使用外语能够显著降低与风险相关的决策偏差,但并不能降低与模糊性和跨期决策有关的决策偏差。具体而言,在与框架效应有关的风险决策任务中,使用外语显著减少了决策的框架效应;与母语组相比,在与小额金钱、大额金钱有关的风险决策问题中,外语组的反射效应消失了;外语组的阿莱行为也显著减少。在模糊性决策任务中,母语组与外语组在决策偏差上没有显著差异。在跨期决策任务中,使用外语对个体的焦虑程度没有显著的影响,但显著增加了双曲贴现偏好。这说明风险、模糊性和跨期决策所涉及的认知过程存在差异,使用外语对决策产生的作用具有复杂性。     

浅谈个体经济行为决策的非理性因素

经济行为是指人在资源配置之间进行决策和选择,以达到满意利用的决策行为与选择行为。不同的个体表现出来的经济行为是有差异的,因为不同个体之间存在人格差异、认知偏差。除此之外,动机也被认为是影响个体经济行为的非理性因素之     

博弈中的利他倾向、认知层级和有限信心——一个基于问卷的调查研究

本文采用问卷的形式进行博弈行为的调查分析。通过分析恐惧、状态焦虑和特质焦虑三种情绪以及博弈具体场景的不同设置对被试者在博弈中所表现出的利他倾向、认知层级和有限信心的影响,得出:(1)在理性的利己主义层面,决策主体并不是完全自利的,而是具有一定程度的利他倾向,并且利他倾向会受到决策主体自身情绪的影响;(2)在理性的反覆思维能力层面,验证了认知层级理论,并且恐惧、状态焦虑以及特质焦虑三种情绪对反覆思维能力并不具有显著影响;(3)在理性的完美预见能力层面,决策主体对对方能够做出理性选择的信心常常是有限的,这种有限的信心并不受到博弈具体场景的不同设置而改变,并且恐惧、状态焦虑以及特质焦虑三种情绪对有限信心也不具有显著影响。     

收入不平等、惩罚和公共品自愿供给的实验经济学研究

本文借助实验经济学方法在一个收入不平等环境中考察了两种类型的惩罚机制对于公共品供给的影响。实验结果表明:由于社会偏好的普遍存在,引入惩罚机制可以显著且稳定地提高公共品供给水平,不过基于个体的惩罚机制效果更好;惩罚主要针对违背公平准则的行为,被试也会主动调整以避免被惩罚;处境较好的被试的惩罚倾向较低,并且被惩罚的可能性较高。这些结论对制定解决收入分配问题的公共政策具有指导意义。     

具有缺货厌恶决策偏好的供应链收益共享契约模型研究

收益共享契约是实现供应链系统绩效改善或完美协调的一种机制。考虑了销售商与供应商分别具有缺货厌恶决策偏好情况下,建立了随机需求下由单供应商和单销售商组成的二级供应链的收益共享契约模型,并对模型进行了分析,揭示了供应商和销售商的缺货厌恶决策偏好对最优订购量、收益分享比例及供应链协作的影响。结果表明:在销售商具有缺货厌恶决策偏好时,供应商所提供的批发价格、所获得的收益份额都将随着销售商缺货厌恶增加而增加;在供应商具有缺货厌恶决策偏好时,供应商所提供的批发价格、所获得的收益份额都将随着自己的缺货厌恶增加而减小。     

收入分配决策的情境依赖性及其神经机制研究

分配正义关涉的是如何以一种公平正义的方式在个体之间分配收入,学者们从各领域、各视角提出过诸多可供选择的分配方案与决策。行为实验研究则表明,人们的分配决策会因为给定的收入分配情境的不同而有所改变。这种改变表征着,不同情境下(无知之幕、知晓所在阶层、社会计划者)人们对于个人收益(自利或风险厌恶)和他人收益(公平或社会偏好)之间有着不同的权重偏好。然而,为何分配情境的不同会导致这种偏好动机上的差别,从而影响人们在分配上的行为决策,这一逻辑机理始终没有得到相关实证依据的解释。文章拟利用神经经济学研究方法,试图通过分离各种分配情境下风险偏好与社会偏好对分配决策的各自作用,进而为分配决策的情境依赖性提供神经基础,建立收入分配决策与特定脑区神经活动及相关偏好之间的因果联系。     

全球化进程中的美国次贷危机和中国经济安全

美国次贷危机于2007年4月爆发,目前正演变为全球性的金融危机和经济危机,其“蝴蝶效应”在全球范围不断扩大：多家金融机构出现巨额亏损甚至倒闭,股市债市剧烈波动,通胀加剧,信贷紧缩,各国实体经济也陷入衰退风险。随着全球化已经成为当代世界的发展潮流和客观趋势,中国参与全球化程度的不断深化,美国次贷危机也对中国的银行保险业、外汇储备、工业企业、国家财政、股市楼市汇市、就业需求、CPI等产生了明显或潜在的深刻影响。为了更好地规避经济危机,实现整体国民经济的可持续健康发展,政府层面要重新定位全球化时代的中国经济安全,监管与服务并重,以防范全球性的金融风险;银行业层面要开拓一条中国特色的金融创新道路;国民层面要养成传统文化和现代文明相结合的消费习惯。     

Too old to plan? Age identity and financial planning among the older population of China

We study how age identity (measured by the difference between chronological age and perceived old age), influences financial planning among the older population (60+) in China. Using data from three waves of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey, we show that individuals who feel younger have a significantly higher probability of making financial plans. That such an effect exists in sub-samples divided by age and retirement status implies the relevance of financial planning even for individuals with advanced ages. It is consistent with the hypothesis that old individuals who feel younger have higher perceived cognitive abilities and hence higher motivation to make financial plans. However, an unfavorable perception of social aging culture moderates such a positive effect. Age identity can further impact the downstream economic behaviors of saving and investing, either directly or indirectly, through financial planning. Finally, a younger age identity also increases an individual's willingness to internalize the responsibility of eldercare. Our findings imply that it is important to consider individuals' age identity when crafting and implementing old-age policies.     

Feeling Richer or Poorer than Others: A Cross‐section and Panel Analysis of Subjective Economic Status in Indonesia*

This paper examines what makes us feel richer or poorer than others. It investigates cross‐sectional and longitudinal determinants of individuals’ subjective economic status in Indonesia. Using two waves of Indonesian Family Life Surveys, 1997 and 2000, I show that individuals’ perceptions of where they are on the economic scale are more dependent on a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their attitudes towards their future economic status, than their current spending capacities would suggest. I also find significant, albeit weaker, expenditure and income effects on individuals’ subjective economic status once individual fixed effects are controlled for in the regression.     

Are smokers too optimistic about their health status: Ex ante perception versus ex post observation

As the world has moved toward the era of non-communicable diseases, whether the individuals are in a capable position to accurately evaluate their own health status has an important implication on disease prevention in particularly and population health outcome in general. In this paper, we address four important questions surrounding the accuracy of health perception: (1) to what extent that individuals can make an accurate evaluation on their own health status; (2) what are the major factors influencing health misperception if any; (3) what are the causal directions between health behavior and health perception; and (4) whether individuals can learn and update their self-evaluation on health status over time and whether such learning is productive in that it mitigates the health misperception. Specifically, we use a longitudinal data set obtained from Taiwan that covers six waves of survey over about twenty-year period to compare the ex ante subjective perception on health and the ex post mortality hazards. Our results suggest that over one third of the survey respondents are not performing well in the evaluation of their own health status. We also find that smokers are more likely to have an optimistic bias on their own health assessment as compared to nonsmokers. After controlling for the simultaneous causality problem, we find a causal effect of individuals' misperceptions on continuing smoking, but not vice versa. In addition, our results show that individuals update their subjective perception on health over time through the learning from personal health shocks and the provision of public information on smoking hazards. Although the learning process tends to be overshooting among smokers, it is beneficial to mitigate the optimistic bias. We also find the evidence that personal health shock has a stronger impact on updating behavior than public information, indicating that personal experience is a more effective channel through which to correct the bias in health perception, compared to the provision of public information, such as anti-smoking campaign.     

Social mobility in the early middle ages

Estimates of inequality of living standards based on average height differences between socioeconomic strata are likely biased if the social status of some individuals changed during their lifetime. Height differences estimated from skeletal remains, reflecting living standards during childhood and adolescence, are probably too small if social status is inferred based on grave goods which are associated with the individuals’ social status at the time of their death. The higher the level of social mobility, the more distinguished individuals will not have had a privileged childhood and, therefore, have the biological characteristics of the disadvantaged group. In a newly assembled sample of individual level anthropometric data from 26 early medieval row grave cemeteries in south-western Germany, men buried with a long sword in their grave were on average about 3 cm taller than the others. In a simple model of the mechanics of the social-mobility bias, this height difference, together with parameters from the literature, implies a level of social mobility typical of small-scale agricultural or pastoral societies.     

上海市商务成本构成因素及趋势分析

商务成本是投资、贸易、经营和区域经济开发中需要考虑的重要因素,分析商务成本现状和结构性变动趋势有助于了解一国或一地区投资环境的现状.文章在商务成本概念界定及其结构分析的基础上确定了商务成本的考量指标,然后运用这套指标体系分析了上海市商务成本的现状和结构性变动趋势,最后给出了优化商务成本的参考性建议.     

东亚国家高储蓄、低消费之谜的行为经济学解析

儒家思想的"崇俭黜奢"传统,使消费者在奢侈品消费时产生负罪感,形成"过度自我控制"认知偏差,这种认知偏差会导致消费者的实际消费与计划消费发生偏离,表现为持续的消费拖延及消费不足,从而可从内因的角度解释东亚国家高储蓄、低消费之谜的发生机制及其系列特征。本文模型的结论为:政府干预提供了微观基础,模型内生的消费"锁定"技术能有效抑制消费者自我控制认知偏差,可成为拓宽政府干预边界、实现扩大内需干预政策创新的突破口。     

Job satisfaction and relative income in economic transition: Status or signal?: The case of urban China

We use two datasets for urban China to examine whether an increase in reference group income lowers or increases job satisfaction. The former is consistent with a status effect — an increase in the income of others lowers my satisfaction because I feel jealous. The latter is consistent with a signal effect — an increase in the income of others might make me jealous, but it also provides an information signal about my future prospects. When we use a single item indicator of job satisfaction we find no support for a status or signal effect; however, when we use a psychometrically valid instrument to measure job satisfaction, we find some support for the existence of a status effect. We consider the components of job satisfaction through which the status effect operates. We find that the status effect operates through satisfaction with co-workers, operating procedures, pay and supervision.     

试论我国不动产登记机构

本文对不动产登记机构立法例进行了比较与评析,并分析了我国不动产登记的现状,认为国外由司法机关作为不动产登记机构虽有其法理优势,但并不适合我国现状,我国未来不动产登记机构的选择应该是在尊重现状的情况下,对目前不动产登记机构进行形式上的合并组成统一的不动产登记机构。     

The selection bias in court records: settlement and trial in eighteenth‐century Ottoman Kastamonu

Court records are used extensively in historical research. Preserved as summaries of daily legal proceedings, they give historians a unique opportunity to access information about the names, characteristics, and socio‐economic status of individuals and the laws, local customs, and legal institutions of societies. Although researchers have noted various limitations of these records, the problem of selection bias has not been systematically studied. Since litigants would probably settle disputes in which one side is likely to be a clear winner, the cases that go to trial are more likely to be the difficult and uncertain ones that comprise a non‐random subset of all disputes. This article presents a study of selection bias in Ottoman courts in the town of Kastamonu in northern Anatolia, from the late seventeenth and the eighteenth centuries. Disputes are categorized by type and the distribution of court participants is studied according to composition, gender, and socio‐religious status. A regression analysis is run to determine the factors affecting the likelihood of cases being tried in court. The results indicate that the cases that ended up in court were selected systematically. If the selection bias is ignored, research based on Ottoman court records may be seriously flawed in its ability to yield general conclusions.