地区营商环境对企业出口贸易的影响

文章利用世界银行于2013年公布的中国制造业企业问卷调查数据,实证检验地区营商环境对企业出口贸易的影响。研究发现,营商环境体系中的关贸监管效率、行政审批效率、基础设施条件、融资便利程度、高素质劳动力等因素显著阻碍了企业出口强度的提升,这几个方面应当成为政府部门改善营商环境的政策着力点。不同类型企业对营商环境的诉求存在显著差异,大型企业的出口贸易对营商环境各项指标的质量都更加敏感,高生产率企业的出口贸易则更易受到低质量税制环境和高素质劳动力短缺的制约。东部发达地区的企业出口贸易受要素市场条件的约束相对更多,而中西部欠发达地区的企业出口贸易受贸易便利条件的约束更为突出。     

Does immigrant employment matter for export sales? Evidence from Denmark

Immigration impacts on the economy in ample ways: it affects growth, wages and total factor productivity. This study deals with the effects of immigration on firm exports. Can firms benefit from hiring immigrants to expand their export sales? Or do immigrants who live in the firm’s region affect trade? In contrast to the existing literature, we are able to distinguish these two distinct channels. Using matched employer-employee data from Denmark for the years 1995–2005, we provide novel insights in the nexus between exports and immigration. We further contribute to the literature by providing first evidence on the adjustment of firms’ product portfolio in response to immigration. Our empirical results are consistent with the claim that immigration lowers barriers to trade. Both, regional immigration and foreign employment matter for the composition of firm-level exports. As a novel insight, our findings suggest that firms benefit from immigration in terms of expanded export sales, when they hire foreign employees. We only find weak evidence for the local presence of foreigners to increase export sales, which we ascribe to the conjecture that at least some trade-cost reducing forces of immigration like for example intercultural knowledge or personal and business networks abroad, can only be accessed or exploited via foreign employment.     

Does foreign aid promote recipient exports to donor countries?

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the effect of foreign aid on exports of aid recipients to donor countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasises the possible negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports, primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Using non-stationary panel (cointegration) estimators to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias, we find that the net effect of aid on recipient countries’ exports is insignificant, both for our sample (of 123 countries) as a whole and for important regional sub-samples. This finding is in line with the small or insignificant macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies and also suggests that exporters in recipient countries are not benefiting from improved trade relations with donors.     

Business groups,foreign direct investment,and capital goods trade: The import behavior of Japanese affiliates

We examine the impact of buyer–supplier relationships within business groups on capital goods trade by taking into account potential simultaneous effects of business group ties on foreign direct investment. We posit that (1) foreign affiliates of business group firms have a greater propensity to import capital goods from the home country, increasing home country exports; (2) if the establishment of overseas affiliates by business group firms attracts foreign direct investment by their capital goods suppliers, business group ties are localized and the ‘trade creating’ impact of business group ties may disappear or even be reversed. Empirical analysis of capital goods imports by 1790 manufacturing affiliates operated abroad by Japanese multinational firms, combined with information on linkages with machinery suppliers within horizontal and vertical business groups, provides broad support for these predictions. Our findings suggest that it may be incorrect to infer from the absence of a simple relationship between business group ties and trade that such ties are unimportant; instead, intra-group ties may be replicated abroad through foreign direct investment.     

Trading firms in the services sectors: comparable evidence from four EU countries

We establish a set of stylised facts for trade and trading firms in five market services sectors using comparable firm- and activity-level data from four EU countries. Our analysis shows that exports account for much lower shares of overall sales in the services sectors than in manufacturing. This is because fewer firms are engaged in trade in the services sectors and also because within particular sectors firms trade a lower share of their sales on average. Services producers trade mostly goods, but in terms of value, trade in services is much more important to them than to manufacturers. Larger and more productive firms are more likely to be two-way traders and to engage in both goods and services trade. Trade by services firms is somewhat less dominated by firms that both export and import than trade by manufacturing firms. Few firms export many services or to many countries. The value of services exports is increasing in the number of markets served but not necessarily in the number of services traded.     

基于资源及经济安全视角的中国对外投资合作研究

在当前世界经济发展中,我国对外经济合作呈现越来越强劲的增长势头,并且大部分的合作项目都同时伴有较大规模的对外投资及自然资源的贸易往来。本文运用引力模型研究了我国的对外经济合作及与其相关的投资流,模型中额外加入了基于资源及经济安全角度考虑的其他因素。研究结果显示,经典引力模型中通常会影响对外投资的各要素同样会作用于我国的对外经济合作,同时合作国的自然资源禀赋亦表现出较强的吸引华资优势,此外,我国在选择合作伙伴国时倾向于较弱的政治自由度,较低的腐败程度及较稳定和持续的经济增长环境。     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

Product-destination Portfolio and Dynamics by Firm Ownership and Trade Mode： Evidence from Chinese Industrial Exporters

Using matched firm‐level trade and production data over the period 2000–2006, we study the product‐destination portfolio and dynamics of Chinese industrial exporters and make a thorough comparison among four types of firms and between two kinds of trade modes. We find that ownership structure and trading modes do matter to the destination and product mix choices of Chinese industrial exporters. In particular, foreign firms' exports and processing trade tend to be more destination‐specific and products are more specialized. Therefore, foreign firms are more likely to maintain a particular link within a specific global supply chain.     

Exporting against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Public Export Insurance Schemes in OECD Countries

This paper endeavours to find out in how far public export insurance schemes foster international trade. Thereto, a gravity equation is derived, which accounts for the risk of financial losses in case firms contract defaulting foreign buyers. Empirical results suggest that OECD countries issuing trade credits with generous state-guarantees did not, during the 1999 to 2005 period, witness more exports towards politically and commercially more unstable low-income countries. Rather, publicly indemnified trade finance has promoted exports, to a modest degree, towards high and middle-income countries, where financial intermediaries and markets provide viable alternatives to hedge against payment risks.     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

Trade Propensities and Foreign Ownership Shares in Indonesian Manufacturing

This paper examines the relationship between trade propensities and foreign ownership shares in Indonesian manufacturing in 1992 and 1994. Foreign plants had relatively high trade propensities, and plants with high foreign ownership shares had the highest export propensities. Differences in import propensities among foreign ownership groups were relatively small. It might be argued that trade propensities determine foreign ownership shares in Indonesia, which historically waives foreign ownership restrictions for firms that export much of their output. However, this paper argues that causation runs from foreign ownership shares to trade propensities, because multinational firms have strong incentives to restrict access by uncontrolled affiliates to their international marketing networks, and because the relationship persists even when the effects of policy distortions are accounted for. Correspondingly, ownership restrictions that discriminate among foreign ownership groups are likely to reduce the exports of foreign multinational affiliates, but to have a much weaker effect on imports.     

Foreign aid as a promotional strategy

Developed countries are motivated by several forces when allocating aid to developing countries. The forces could be humanitarian in one country, and commercial self-interests in another. The principal objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of aid as a promotional strategy for trade, and to investigate whether major donor countries are optimally allocating their aid resources to increase their export and total trade. Models were developed to explore the effectiveness of aid as a promotional instrument for exports and total trade. Donor exports and total trade were expressed as functions of aid, per capita GNP of the recipient country, and aid from competing donors. The study showed that exports and total trade responded to total expected aid contributions and per capita GNP of the recipient countries. Also, all donors, but one, were maximizing the returns to aid, given the level of trade with recipient countries and will be reluctant to increase aid flows, given the current trade level.     

The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation

Cross-country differences in the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade is one reason for cross-country differences in estimated exchange rate coefficients in short-run balance of trade equations. If exports are invoiced in domestic currency while imports are invoiced in a foreign currency, a depreciation will increase the domestic currency value of outstanding import contracts, and may cause the balance of trade to fall in the short run. Countries with different invoicing patterns will have different effects on the short-run trade balance following a depreciation. We explore a simple theory of invoicing currency choice, drawing inferences regarding the likely choices for 14 countries. This allows a classification of countries according to the expected short-run balance of trade effect of a currency depreciation. Empirical estimates support the hypothesized groupings based on suggested currency invoicing patterns.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.     

Imitating to export

China started to establish export processing zones (EPZs) in 2000 to better manage foreign processing business. The cluster of export processing business inside the EPZs provides an opportunity for neighboring Chinese firms to observe. Chinese firms quickly imitate foreign exporters in both export and import patterns. Exports of the exact products shipped from EPZs immediately increase throughout the province, with the largest gains in the city containing the EPZ, and the next largest in the cities adjacent to the EPZ. Chinese firms also import the same equipment imported by firms in EPZs, suggesting that they imitate foreign technology. Furthermore, we find that Chinese firms who imitate experience modest gains in profitability and productivity. We conclude that a key ingredient of China’s success in trade has been its ability to attract foreign capital and subsequently imitate them.     

中国企业走出去的理论解读

本文首先从国际商务和国际经济学两个角度对企业对外直接投资理论进行了概述;然后结合中国企业走出去的实际,从资源论、产业组织论、制度论的角度进行了理论探索以及实证经验的总结。文章发现现阶段中国走出去的企业没有明显的资源优势;产业环境对中国企业国际化有重要影响,能部分地解释中国企业的走出去行为;制度因素是影响中国企业走出去的关键因素。     

US and China aid to Africa: Impact on the donor-recipient trade relations

This paper investigates the impact of the US and China's foreign aids to Africa on trade flows between donor and recipient countries. Evidence from the gravity model estimates reveals that the two donors' exports are strengthened by their aids to African partners. Interestingly, China's aid shows a positive effect on its total volume of trade and imports from Africa, while the aid from the US exhibits little impact on the US-Africa total trade and its imports from Africa. A possible explanation for such a difference could be due to the dissimilar national interests of donors in Africa. This study finally suggests that African countries should accelerate the pace of advancing domestic economies and rely less on foreign assistance, in order to establish a fairer and more equal international economic order.     

Exports versus FDI: do firms use FDI as a mechanism to smooth demand volatility?

In this paper, we first develop a simple two-period model of oligopoly to show that, under demand uncertainty, whether a firm chooses to serve foreign markets by exports or via foreign direct investment (FDI) may depend on demand volatility along with other well-known determinants such as size of market demand and trade costs. Although fast transport such as air shipment is an option for exporting firms to smooth volatile demand in foreign markets, market volatility may systematically trigger the firms to undertake FDI. We then use a rich panel of US firms’ sales to 56 countries between 1999 and 2004 to confront this theoretical prediction and show strong evidence in support of the prediction     

Exploring the Margins of Dutch Exports: A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper utilizes new Dutch transaction-level data on international trade to investigate the microeconomic patterns of Dutch exports. First, we show that self-selection based on ex-ante productivity drives firms’ export decisions, which we subsequently relate to various sources of fixed market-entry costs: governance and regulatory quality, the extent of corruption, and cultural proximity. Second, we provide evidence that firms learn to export by trial and error, so as to obtain experience in exporting and to gather knowledge about the potential of foreign markets. Such experimentation appears to be reflected in the volatility of a firm’s export product portfolio. More volatility is associated with a higher survival rate in the export market. Finally, we draw conclusions on the potential implications for trade policy.     

Exports and Productivity Selection Effects for Dutch Firms

The paper tests whether recent theories of international trade with heterogeneous firms can explain the export patterns in Dutch firm- and plant- level data in manufacturing and services. Recent trade models with heterogeneous firms predict that the export decision of firms is affected by sunk entry costs in foreign markets, with only the most productive firms self-selecting into exports. We test a latent variable model of the export decision by probit regressions and standard OLS panel regressions. Our results support the self-selection prediction. The process further appears to be conditioned by scale effects, market structure and multinational affiliation. Regarding alternative explanations, we do not find evidence for the learning-by-exporting hypothesis, even when controlling for the firm’s distance to the international productivity frontier.