城市化与畜产品生产预测:健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性.随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力.揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策.以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展.     

不确定性与风险浅析

众所周知,生活中充满了不确定性。每天我们都会碰到一些突发事件。也正是这些突发事情使得人们总是对未来忐忑不安。不确定性会给人们带来风险,许多人也由此把不确定性与风险混为一谈,但事实上,风险与不确定性并不相同。     

中小企业从事外贸活动中的汇率风险规避

汇率变动的不确定性把以进出口为主营业务的中小企业推到了汇率风险的最前沿,中小企业在外贸活动中面临的生产经营风险加剧,如何有效规避汇率风险成为进出口中小企业实现可持续健康发展的一项重要内容。中小企业应根据自身实际情况分析存在问题,有选择地运用各种方式来规避汇率波动引起的风险。     

基于风险价值链的房地产投资风险分析

随着人们对房地产研究的深化,价值链管理被引入到房地产企业中,并在此基础上,形成了比较完整的风险价值链理论。随着房地产业的日益繁荣,大量的资金在使经济加速发展的同时也带来了更大的风险和不确定性。本文在价值链的基础上对房地产企业投资过程的风险进行了深入研究。     

探讨商业银行会计风险与防范对策

风险主要是指不确定性,任何一家企业在经营过程中都会面临各种不确定性,商业银行也不例外。风险有很多分类,有财务风险、经营风险与会计风险等。本文主要探讨商业银行的会计风险,首先商业银行的会计风险是由内外部环境的不确定性产生的;其次由于环境的变化与不确定性会导致会计计量出现差错,使会计信息并未准确反映交易或事项的真实情况;最后导致管理人员决策失误,从而给公司带来不可忽视的损失。本文将主要探讨商业银行会计风险的具体成因,以及相应的应对措施。     

基于农户风险厌恶的订单农业价格机制

随着我国农业现代化进程的推进和“互联网+农业”战略的实施,订单农业逐渐成为农产品流通的主导方式之一.然而,在我国“小生产、大市场”的背景下,农产品产出与需求不确定性加剧了农业风险,严重损害了农民利益,制约了订单农业发展.在此,主要基于农户风险厌恶特征,将预期收益下的风险最小化作为决策目标,提出阶梯式量价收购合约设计思路,以缓解农业生产不确定性,实现订单农业生产经营的持续与稳定.     

商业银行个人中间业务的可持续健康发展

个人中间业务可持续健康发展,就是引入了"长期时间"的概念,是将前瞻性纳入对未来中间业务发展需求的研究和规划,有效解决中间业务发展的后劲问题,为此结合工作实际中洞察到的妨碍个人中间业务可持续健康发展的诸多问题,提出实战性的应对方案。     

对俄远东农业开发展望及建议

对俄远东农业开发是实施农业国际化经营,促进两国农业资源和生产要素跨国流动、优化配置,实现我国农业劳动力转移和集约化规模经营,提高农业效益,增加农民收入的必然选择和有效途径。意义重大,前景广阔。但受国情和政策等因素影响,对俄农业开发也存在着一定风险和不确定性。对俄农业开发在依托市场力量的同时,应加强政府宏观调控和必要扶持,既要注意解决开发中的具体问题,更要从战略和长远的高度规划发展问题,使对俄农业开发成为规模和效益并举的可持续开发。     

新常态下经济可持续集约发展简论

随着我国社会经济的快速发展,城市也得到了非常好的发展机会,但也为城市发展带来了很多问题,新常态是实现可持续集约发展目标是全社会关注的焦点。随着可持续发展观的提出,这个观念已经渗透到各个领域,各个行业在发展中都以可持续发展为重要的战略目标。农业作为我国的基础性产业,在国家生产、发展中发挥着十分重要的作用。本文主要以农业可持续集约发展为例,讨论新常态下城市发展如何实现可持续集约发展的重要战略目标,对城市空间布局的未来趋势进行探索。     

论“不确定性”及其在经管领域中的描述与度量

文章讨论了各学科中不确定性研究的同一性,阐述了经管领域中有关不确定性问题的新观点,强调不确定性并非仅与风险相联系,并在此基础上对收益不确定和风险不确定性进行了描述.引入感知特征的概念,并将人工智能领域中的相关研究成果引入至经管领域,提出采用云模型以解决经管领域中不确定性度量问题的基本框架.     

Risk management behaviour by the Northern Ireland food consumer

The main criteria that consumers use during the decision‐making process when purchasing food have traditionally been a combination of prices, incomes, taste and social attitudes, with price being seen as the main determinant. However, in the past 10 years risk has become a ‘new’ criterion that can affect the consumer's decision whether or not to purchase a particular food item. The effect of the perception of risk has been observed during the numerous food scares in the last decade and in trends for the demand for foods that connote a health image. This research, carried out in Northern Ireland, looked at how consumers quantified and managed risk. The research involved 202 primary food consumers and identified the factors that were perceived to be important from both a societal and a personal perspective. Using principal component analysis techniques, societal food risks were seen as either processing or dietary, and personal food risks were seen as either extrinsic or intrinsic. Further investigation into the attributes of the personal risk using the same techniques revealed a three‐factor solution described as fear, involvement and newness. Although these factors cannot be used as predictors of the risk associated with a particular food, they help to describe and explain how the risk may be managed. The relationship between two of the factors, involvement and fear, provide a framework for understanding the way consumers manage their perception of the risk, particularly of high‐risk items. Consumer and scientific knowledge of the risk in question, and the degree of control over the risk were seen as important in the management of the risk in question. The conceptualization of the mechanism by which risks are processed and acted upon provides information regarding risk management and communication strategies that should be employed by educators, food retailers and government policy makers.     

Sequential sampling models of choice: Some recent advances

Choice models in marketing and economics are generally derived without specifying the underlying cognitive process of decision making. This approach has been successfully used to predict choice behavior. However, it has not much to say about such aspects of decision making as deliberation, attention, conflict, and cognitive limitations and how these influence choices. In contrast, sequential sampling models developed in cognitive psychology explain observed choices based on assumptions about cognitive processes that return the observed choice as the terminal state. We illustrate three advantages of this perspective. First, making explicit assumptions about underlying cognitive processes results in measures of deliberation, attention, conflict, and cognitive limitation. Second, the mathematical representations of underlying cognitive processes imply well documented departures from Luce’s Choice Axiom such as the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects. Third, the process perspective predicts response time and thus allows for inference based on observed choices and response times. Finally, we briefly discuss the relationship between these cognitive models and rules for statistically optimal decisions in sequential designs.     

我国农业保险发展的现状及对策——以区域化发展为视角

近年来，我国农业保险在持续发展过程中出现了一些问题，最为突出的是在区域间发展不平衡，而且现有保险模式难以兼顾不同区域经济发展状况、农业风险和农业生产布局的特殊性。推进我国农业保险，应根据经济发展的状况和农业保险发展水平合理划分农业保险区域，平衡和协调好农业保险市场，根据区域特色因地制宜寻求农业保险发展模式，进而促进农业保险平衡协调可持续发展。     

Moral Intensity, Issue Importance, and Ethical Reasoning in Operations Situations

Previous work suggests that moral intensity and the perceived importance of an ethical issue can influence individual ethical decision making. However, prior research has not explored how the various dimensions of moral intensity might differentially affect PIE, or how moral intensity might function together with (or in the presence of) PIE to influence ethical decision making. In addition, prior work has also not adequately investigated how the operational context of an organization, which may embody conditions or practices that create barriers to ethical decision making, may differ from other functional areas of an organization. Consequently, this study investigated the relationships among moral intensity, perceived ethical issue importance, and three stages of the ethical reasoning process: recognition of an ethical issue, ethical judgment, and ethical intention. Using an internet-based, self-report survey containing two operations management scenarios and various ethics measures, information was collected from business professionals working for a Midwestern financial services organization. The hierarchical regression results indicated that some dimensions of moral intensity were positively related to PIE, ethical issue recognition, and ethical judgment, and that PIE was associated with increased ethical issue recognition and ethical judgment. The steps of ethical reasoning were also positively interrelated.     

农业多功能性理论的演进——基于贸易政策视角的研究综述

农业多功能性是指农业生产所具有的经济、生态、文化、环境等多重功能。国外关于农业多功能性的理解不一,而国内主要是围绕农业多功能性的内涵与意义、价值表现、对发达国家的经验借鉴等方面进行论述。主要经历了起源、发展和应用三个演化阶段。在农业多功能性的理解和应用方面,主要形成了三个不同的集团：持反对意见的美国和部分凯恩斯集团成员;持认同态度的日韩欧盟等发达国家;既支持又有反时意见的以巴西、印度为代表的发展中国家。未来农业多功能性这一领域的研究主要集中在以下三点：第一,加强对非贸易关注、联合生产等核心问题的研究,并加强相关实证分析;第二,从战略高度,关注粮食安全和农业的可持续发展;第三,以农业多功能性为都市农业发展的切入点,引导农业可持续发展的新趋势。     

Stakeholder Perspectives and Business Risk Perception

Stakeholder theory calls for decision makers to balance stakeholder interests, but before this can happen, management must understand how other parties view its decisions. Effective stakeholder dialogues convened to reach this understanding require management to appreciate how others perceive the risks posed by their decision. Although understanding others’ risk perception is crucial for effective communications, we do not have a clear idea of how viewing a situation from multiple stakeholder perspectives affects risk perception. Based on a technique derived from risk perception studies of health and environmental issues, an experiment with 224 business students examined how an individual’s risk perception can account for both managerial and customer perspectives. Factors described as customer participation, extent of the effect, and management input, together with the respondent’s self-assessed understanding of the decision process, help categorize overall risk perceptions and are shown to be associated with behaviors based on the decision’s riskiness. Discussion includes implications for designs of business communications, including their content and transparency, and for understanding the audience for these communications.     

Food or ‘virtual’ food? The construction of children's food in a global economy

This paper explores the pattern of change and development in the marketization and reconstitution of food products for children. It is in the past few decades that global corporations’ search for new markets has come to focus intensely on children. In the eyes of global corporations, children are a huge, multibillion dollar market. Childhood may be understood as a social construction but its form is historically specific. At present, the market is defining and reconstituting cultural meanings of childhood without being contested by other significant groups in society. The paper goes on to explore how transnational corporations have transformed the production and marketing of food. The paper discusses the food risks and the challenges faced by the fast food industry which specifically targets children. The reconstitution and the rebranding of popular children's food is producing ‘virtual’ food rather than real food. We live in an era where childhood offers untold opportunities in the northern hemisphere. However, the global market has come to dominate and define the social construction of childhood. Other cultural forms of identity outside of consumerism are not making the same impression. The food risks associated with the global processing of food and the health risks that have been linked to these new food forms ultimately has consequences not only for children but for society as a whole.     

Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Stream Restoration: Potential and Examples

Within stream restoration practice there has been little use of formal decision analysis methods for evaluating tradeoffs in selecting restoration sites and design alternatives. Restoration planning suffers from poorly defined objectives, confusion of objectives and means, and a lack of consideration of tradeoffs. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have the potential to improve restoration decision making by quantifying non-economic objectives, communicating tradeoffs, facilitating consistent and explicit valuation, and focusing negotiation on ultimate objectives. To explore the potential usefulness of MCDA, we first review restoration practices and define the characteristics of projects that are good candidates for MCDA. We also present two case studies. The first study is a prioritization of stream reaches for restoration that illustrates how value judgments can affect such decisions. The second study addresses the proposed removal of the Ballville Dam on the Sandusky River in Ohio. An important challenge in the dam removal decision is the linking of habitat improvements to changes in species populations and ecological services that people value. The analysis shows how MCDA can assist decision making by clarifying tradeoffs, in this case by showing that the key issues are conflicts among ecological criteria—not all of which are improved by restoration.     

Is Decision Style Related to Moral Development Among Managers in the U.S.?

The decision making process is an important aspect of the managerial function that is becoming increasingly complex due to technological and global impacts. It is essential, therefore, to understand why various managers approach the decision making process differently. One area that is related to how managers perceive and process the information that is associated with decision making, is that of decision style.It is not enough, however, to explore decision style in isolation, as some of the decisions that managers make often entail ethical components concerning the ability to balance the interests of diverse groups. Moral reasoning is therefore important for every manager, and could impact the decision style that is employed by such managers. The relationship between managerial decision style and moral development is one that could provide unique insights into the area of decision making, yet it is an area that has remained relatively unexplored.Using Alan Rowe's Decision Style Inventory (DSI), in conjunction with James Rest's Defining Issues Test (DIT), the purpose of this study was to ascertain the relationship between decision style and moral development among U.S. managers.The findings of this study of 270 managers suggest that there is a relationship between higher directive decision style scores and lower principled reasoning scores. Since the focus of individuals who demonstrate a directive decision style is on task completion, perhaps the consideration of the many alternatives that are necessary to reason at a more ethically attuned level is neglected. Managers who exhibit a directive decision style might be responsible for the management of non-managerial populations of workers, and in such a capacity, set the ethical tones and examples for employees to follow. Since training and educational interventions in the area of ethics have been shown to increase moral development scores, those managers who are identified as displaying a directive decision style might benefit from such training.     

Process and context in choice models

We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks. The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests of the extended modeling framework.