存款负利率的成因及对策

文章对当前实际存款利率为负的现象进行了解释和分析。首先,揭示了负利率对居民收入分配、社会资源配置和经济发展方式等方面的不利影响;其次,从国际和国内双重经济环境出发,分析了当前和今后一段时间内央行维持负利率的原因;最后,从利用二次分配手段、扶持中小企业发展和掌控好人民币汇率的波动幅度三个方面,提出了在不加息条件下解决负利率问题的三种政策措施。     

International Convergence of Capital Market Interest Rates

This article investigates the extent of capital market interest rate convergence among six EU countries on the one hand, and a group of four countries with floating exchange rates - US, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland - on the other. We conclude that interest rate changes within the EU have been and still are converging gradually since 1980. Within the group of free-float currencies, the increase in convergence occurred abruptly around 1980, after which the extent of convergence remained roughly constant. Moreover, the presumed higher influence of US long-term interest rates on the level of German interest rates could not be detected.     

我国房地产政府管制与利率调整

房地产市场与金融市场关系非常密切。文章结合近年来央行房地产利率调整,从不同的角度分析其对房地产市场的影响,得出利率对房地产业的影响效果有限,需要结合其他管制手段综合发挥作用。     

Fiscal Discipline and the Question of Convergence of National Interest Rates in the European Union

In this paper, interest-rate convergence in Europe is related to the behavior of integrated federal political systems. Our main results are: Before the final fixing of exchange rates, national interest rates will converge toward the German bond yield in countries eligible to become EMU members in part because no-bailout clauses are not credible in the starting period of EMU. Should such clauses become more credible after 2002 because the EU government and its redistributive mechanisms remain weak, the market-discipline hypothesis has a greater chance to apply. But it may still prove unequal to the task of discouraging excessive fiscal deficits on its own.     

Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour

In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in 11 industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.

Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy

This paper investigates the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign transfers. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, a pure transfer has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because the transfer, being denominated in traded output, substitutes for exports in financing imports. While a pure transfer causes short-run real exchange appreciation, this response is temporary and negligibly small. Transfers allocated to productivity enhancement do generate permanent real exchange rate adjustments in response to the sectoral reallocation of productive factors. The analysis, which employs extensive numerical simulations, emphasizes the tradeoffs between real exchange adjustments, long-run capital accumulation, and economic welfare, associated with alternative forms of transfers.

What are the Real Effects of Liberalizing International Capital Movements?

Progress in financial integration calls for the abolition of capital controls, especially within the European community. Traditional analysis would then predict a better reallocation of productive capacity at the international level. A formal model is developed in order to show that it is impossible to draw unequivocal conclusions; moreover, when financial investors are allowed to allocate their wealth in public bonds, and governments pursue full employment targets, cases exist where the financial liberalization produces a reduction in capital accumulation in both the participating countries.It is my view ... that the new orientation of economic theory towards greater realism in regard to existing economic inequalities will imply the final liquidation of the old laissez-faire prediction and, more specifically, the free trade doctrine and the stable equilibrium approach.     

The Complex Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates with Countercyclical Balance of Trade

We extend Dornbusch's (1973) model to determine whether the countercyclical trade balance which is often observed in real business cycle studies can be rationalized and show that the sum of export and import elasticities being less than one is responsible for the complex fluctuation of exchange rates within this exogenous-shock-free framework.     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.     

The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

This article investigates the behavior of real exchange rates under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Using data from both the Bretton Woods and the modern floating periods, we decompose real exchange rate movements into components attributable to supply shocks, real demand shocks, monetary shocks, capital flows shocks, and real oil price shocks. Empirical results show that real demand shocks are an important source of real exchange rate movements under both fixed and flexible rates, while monetary shocks are negligible. Supply and oil price shocks seem to be more important under Bretton Woods, while capital flows shocks seem to explain a relatively higher proportion of real exchange rate movements under the modern floating period.     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate

This paper analyses how productivity differentials between the United States and the euro area drive the euro-dollar real exchange rate. We derive impulse responses from a two-sector new open economy macro (NOEM) model. These are used as sign restrictions to identify a structural vector autoregression. Our results show that the Balassa–Samuelson effect, through traded sector productivity shocks, is less important in explaining the variation in the euro-dollar exchange rate than are demand and nominal shocks. In particular, productivity can explain part of the appreciation of the dollar in the late 1990s only to the extent that it created a boost to aggregate demand in the United States. JEL no. F41, F31     

Regime shifts in European real interest rates

Previous research, using data from 1961 to 1986, has found that the average value of the U.S. real interest rate was subject to occasional jumps caused by external shocks, but between these shocks the average was essentially constant. We have extended this analysis to four major European economies over a sample period that includes the 1990s. For each of the countries, evidence was found in favor of a small number of regime shifts, apart from which the average level of the real rate remained stable. We thus conclude that, like the United States, European real interest rates have generally been stable, only shifting in response to occasional external shocks. JEL no. C5, E4     

Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation

The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory. Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.

Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM

Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID.     

劳动力跨境流动和东亚货币合作

劳动力要素在货币区内各国或地区之间的跨境流动性是货币合作机制得以长期巩固和发展的决定性基础。东亚各国和地区目前的劳动和社会保障制度特征对劳动力跨境自由流动构成阻碍,必须进行双边和多边的统一和协调,以促进东亚国家和地区之间的劳动力流动合作,推动货币合作进程。     

财政支出、贸易条件与实际利率水平

本文主要是分析当一国实行扩张性的财政政策时,它对投资支出以及国际实际利率水平的影响。研究显示,扩张性的财政政策会导致世界各国的投资支出负向变动。这是由于财政支出会造成实际利率水平的变动,而世界各国对实际利率水平变化的反应是非对称性的,所以投资支出的变动有所差别。这种现象主要取决于下述因素：一是政府财政支出倾向对消费支出倾向的替代程度;二是消费跨期替代弹性的大小。     

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment

We study the informational content of the term structure of interest rates on future developments in inflation and real activity for the euro area, explicitly taking into account the possibility of a time-varying risk premium. We put forward a simple adjustment procedure for the term premium based on the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure and provide evidence that the predictive content of term spreads for future developments in industrial production improves significantly if the adjusted term spread is used. The adjustment also achieves some (less systematic) improvements in the forecasting abilities of the term spread for headline inflation and core inflation. JEL no. E43, E44, E47     

Specialization and Welfare in the Presence of Imperfectly Integrated Capital Markets and Learning-by-doing

We study a two-sector, two-period model with learning externalities in the modern sector and imperfectly integrated capital markets. We find that higher capital market integration lowers the requirements on the learning pattern necessary for free trade to lead to an equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities. We further find that the equilibrium with maximal specialization in modern sector activities Pareto dominates, if it exists, any other free trade equilibrium, and that autarky can Pareto dominate free trade if capital markets are poorly integrated, even when there is maximal specialization in modern sector activities under free trade.

---