市场风险与信用风险:风险管理中存在的悖论

利率、汇率波动的加剧,使金融衍生市场的风险成为影响金融体系稳定运行的最重要因素之一。在金融风险定价理论和资产组合技术的支持下,金融衍生工具已成为防范基础性金融风险的有效工具。但金融衍生工具在用于金融风险管理中也存在市场风险、信用风险、流动性风险等基本金融风险。不仅存在着市场风险与信用风险的替代性,还存在着加大金融风险总量的可能。金融风险管理的实质是寻求风险损失与风险收益的平衡。     

电子商务信誉评价研究综述

在网络环境下,商家的信用评价标准应与传统公司信用的评价标准不同。为此,在回顾了不同学者对于信任和信誉的定义后,对学者在电子商务信誉评价方面所开展的研究进行了综述,并分别从C2C环境下的信誉评价研究和B2C环境下的信誉评价研究这两个角度对研究工作进行了总结。     

农村信用社金融风险的成因与防范

由于某些历史的和现实的原因以及农村信用社自身体制上的一些原因 ,造成了近几年农村信用社大面积出现亏损 ,全行业面临着巨大的金融风险。因此 ,化解与防范农村信用社面临的金融风险 ,是当前我国农村金融领域的一项十分艰巨的任务     

对我国商业银行信用风险管理的思考

信用风险已经成为我国商业银行面临的严峻挑战。我国商业银行信用风险管理需要解决基础数据、科学评价客户信用、建立信用风险管理文化等一系列问题。     

The pricing of risk in emerging credit markets: Bonds versus loans

Much of the volatility in emerging markets in the 1990s stems from the fact that the major form of foreign investment is the bond rather than the bank loans which predominated until the debt crisis of the 1980s. Bondholders are too dispersed to negotiate with during a liquidity shortfall. Thus, a shortage of reserves becomes a full-blown crisis. This was not the case in the 1980s when banks, as the major creditors, often lent to countries in arrears. The risk to a loan is therefore rescheduling, while the risk to a bond is default. Empirically pricing loans and bonds as assets reveals that bonds incorporate the greater risk of default into their spreads. Debentures are thus riskier credit than loans. As developing countries now obtain most finance through these risky instruments, the volatility of the 1990s is better understood.     

黑龙江省农村金融领域的信用风险及其防范

信用是市场经济的基础,也是市场经济的必然产物,因此,信用风险一旦发生就会对经济发展产生诸多不利影响,在金融领域的影响尤为严重。中国作为一个农业大国,农村金融领域发生信用风险就会严重地制约经济的总体发展水平。因此,从农村金融的角度,以黑龙江省为例,提出合理防范农村金融领域的信用风险,对黑龙江省整体县域经济发展具有重要意义。基于此,分析了农村金融领域信用风险产生的原因和对区域性农业经济发展的影响,提出了相应的风险防范措施.     

基于价值链的企业信用风险管理体系

本文在科学把握企业信用风险管理和价值链理论的基础上，将波特价值链分析法应用于企业信用风险管理，以销售——回款过程为主线，构建了企业信用风险管理价值链，探讨了企业信用风险管理的基本理论和管理技术。     

Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model

In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This paper builds on the methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S.M., (2004), Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error correcting macroeconometric model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 2, 129–169.] and supplemented by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Treutler, B., and Weiner, S.M., (2006), Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk: a global perspective, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 38, Number 5, August 2006, 1211–1261.] which has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling in that it avoids the use of proprietary balance sheet and distance-to-default data, focusing on credit ratings which are more freely available.In this paper a country-specific macroeconometric risk-driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework of PSW (2004) is constructed, using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio but also opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale, as such a model can easily be linked to the GVAR model. The set of domestic factors is extended beyond those used in PSW (2004) in such a way that the risk-driver model is applicable for both retail and corporate credit risk. As such, the model can be applied to a total bank balance sheet, incorporating the correlation and diversification between both retail and corporate credit exposures.Assuming statistical over-identification restrictions, the results indicate that it is possible to construct a South African component for the GVAR model that can easily be integrated into the global component. From a practical application perspective the framework and model is particularly appealing since it can be used as a theoretically consistent correlation model within a South African-specific credit portfolio management tool.     

基于VaR方法的商业银行信用风险的探究

信用风险管理的核心问题是信用风险的度量。本文重点探究基于统计方法的VaR信用风险模型,通过实证分析可知,以VaR值为核心的CreditMetrics方法,通过适当修正,符合我国商业银行信用风险管理的实际情况。     

Evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending

Online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending has emerged recently. This micro loan market could offer certain benefits to both borrowers and lenders. Using data from the Lending Club, which is one of the popular online P2P lending houses, this article explores the P2P loan characteristics, evaluates their credit risk and measures loan performances. We find that credit grade, debt-to-income ratio, FICO score and revolving line utilization play an important role in loan defaults. Loans with lower credit grade and longer duration are associated with high mortality rate. The result is consistent with the Cox Proportional Hazard test which suggests that the hazard rate or the likelihood of the loan default increases with the credit risk of the borrowers. Finally, we find that higher interest rates charged on the high-risk borrowers are not enough to compensate for higher probability of the loan default. The Lending Club must find ways to attract high FICO score and high-income borrowers in order to sustain their businesses.     

Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach

Investigating linkages between credit and equity markets, we consider daily aggregate U.S. CDS spreads as well as well-chosen equity market and implied volatility indexes over ten years. We describe such robust (to spurious correlation) relationship with the quantile cointegrating regression approach. Such approach handles extreme quantiles/CDS values and their behavior with respect to the equity market's influence. Heteroskedastic patterns such as time-varying variance, but also autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis are captured. Thus, the sensitivity of aggregate CDS spreads to equity market price and volatility channels is accurately measured across quantiles and spreads. Such quantile-dependent sensitivity exhibits asymmetric responses to equity market shocks. A sub-period analysis investigates potential regime shifts in estimated quantile cointegrating regressions. Quantile cointegrating coefficients vary over time and quantiles, and exhibit different magnitudes across sub-periods and spreads. Therefore, the relationship is unstable over time. We also propose a scenario analysis and risk signaling application for credit risk management prospects. Under specific risk levels, credit risky situations are described conditional on the equity market's information over time, and related expected aggregate CDS spreads are computed. Estimated conditional quantiles/CDS spreads act as credit alert triggers.     

有关外贸企业信用风险及其管理的研究

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,外贸企业之间的竞争日益激烈。很多外贸企业为了占据国外市场,会推出优惠的信用条件,以此作为增加客户的手段,但其信用风险也会随之增加。分析了导致外贸企业信用风险增加的原因,并提出对应管理措施。只有不断降低信用风险,以此提高外贸企业的竞争力,才能使企业不断扩大经营规模,促进企业的不断发展。     

Inequality aversion and separability in social risk evaluation

This paper examines how to satisfy “independence of the utilities of the dead” (Blackorby et al. in Econometrica 63:1303–1320, 1995; Bommier and Zuber in Soc Choice Welf 31:415–434, 2008) in the class of “expected equally distributed equivalent” social orderings (Fleurbaey in J Polit Econ 118:649–680, 2010) and inquires into the possibility to keep some aversion to inequality in this context. It is shown that the social welfare function must either be utilitarian or take a special multiplicative form. The multiplicative form is compatible with any degree of inequality aversion, but only under some constraints on the range of individual utilities.     

Borrower credit access and credit performance after loan modifications

While the preventive effect of loan modifications on mortgage default has been well-documented, evidence on the broad consequences of modifications has been fairly limited. Based on two unique loan-level data sets with borrower credit profiles, this study reports novel empirical evidence on how homeowners manage their credit before and after receiving modifications. The paper has several main findings. First, loan modifications improve borrowers’ overall credit standing and access to credit. Modifications that provide principal reduction, rate reduction, or greater payment relief, as well as those received by borrowers not in financial catastrophe, lead to a larger improvement in borrowers’ credit rating than others. Second, loan modifications lead to a slight increase in borrowers’ debts, primarily on home equity line of credit accounts and auto loans. Third, borrowers’ performance on nonmortgage accounts, however, has not been negatively impacted by modifications. This study demonstrates that interventions designed to improve household balance sheets could have a direct and sizeable impact on borrower financial outcomes.     

Modelling non-performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

In this article, we model the effect of the non-performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non-performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In doing so, we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the non-performing loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.     

中小企业信息化水平测评方法研究

文章提出了建立中小企业信息化水平评价指标体系,针对我国中小企业的特点选择了评价指标,运用层次分析法对指标权重进行了确定,提出了变权重的评价方法,使指标体系更适于对不同行业的中小企业信息化水平做出准确的评价。