The Long Tail of the Auto Industry Life Cycle

This article explores how the industry life‐cycle theory, proposed by Abernathy and Utterback, can be reinterpreted from the viewpoint of product architecture dynamics. The “long tail” of the automobile industry life cycle, observed during the past several decades, is explained by an evolutionary framework in which a product's architecture is treated as an endogenous variable affected by customers' functional requirements, environmental‐technical constraints, and their changes. The present article explains how the existing industry life‐cycle model effectively explains the early history of automotive product‐process innovations, but that it fails to explain the “long tail” of the life cycle, and that an evolutionary approach of product architectures can be used to explain the architectural sequence and the long‐term trend of the increase in nonradical innovations. That is, the industry life‐cycle model certainly fits well with the actual pattern of product‐process innovations at the early phase of the automobile's development, between the 1880s (invention) through the 1920s (the end of the Model T) and into the 1960s, when product differentiation continued without significant product/process innovations (e.g., the Big Three's annual model change). But the question remains how this model can explain the rest of the industry's history (1970s to 2010s), which is characterized by “rapid incremental innovations,” or a “long tail of the life cycle,” with its upward trend of technological advancement rather than the end of innovations or the beginning of another industry life cycle (i.e., “dematurity”). The evolutionary framework of product architecture predicts that the macro architecture of a given product category (e.g., passenger cars) will be relatively integral when the functional requirements that customers expect, the constraints imposed by society and the government, and the physical‐technical limits inherent in the product are strong, and that it will be relatively modular when they are weaker. The dynamic architectural analysis starts from the Lancaster‐type analysis of a set of function‐price frontiers for a given product category (e.g., cars). Based on the design theories, it hypothesizes that the shape of function‐price frontiers are different between integral models and modular models. It then hypothesizes that price‐oriented customers tend to choose relatively modular products, whereas function‐oriented customers choose relatively integral products more often than not, other things being equal. Thus, the macro architecture of a given product can be determined depending on whether each architecture's price‐function frontier touches the price‐function preference curves of its customers. As for the future architecture of the car, its macro architecture, determined by markets and environments, will remain relatively integral and complex as long as it continues to be a fast‐moving heavy artifact in the public space, whereas its micro architecture, determined by engineers, will be somewhat mixed, as the engineers try to simplify and modularize the automobile design wherever the market and technology permit. The evolutionary framework of architectures also predicts that the architectural sequence inside the industry life cycle will differ by products (e.g., cars and computers) depending upon the dynamic patterns of technological advancement (e.g., shifts of the price‐function frontier) and market‐societal constraints (e.g., shifts of the price‐function preference curve).     

Perspectives on regional innovation policy – From new economic geography towards the IMP approach

The European Union has the aim of becoming the world's most competitive and knowledge-based economy, which entails investments in industry agglomeration. However, these investments have had limited impact. This conceptual paper problematizes the new economic geography terminology used in policy and, more specifically, the way that the key concepts of “industry agglomeration,” “social capital,” “knowledge,” and “innovation” are conceptualized. By adding the perspective of the industrial network or industrial marketing and purchasing (IMP) approach, this paper contributes to a more nuanced understanding of how to facilitate innovation within regional policy. Since the IMP approach offers an organizational-level perspective, including such a perspective will help make the EU's policies more practically applicable. We propose that regional policy should pay more attention to the socio-material resource interaction between the actors involved in the cluster initiatives. This would shift the focus away from creating spillover effects of knowledge towards viewing knowledge as a performative construct that is inseparable from the specific resource interaction in which it is embedded. Also, the definition of innovation within policy could benefit from being reconceptualized as the processual use within producer–user relationships.     

Coevolutionary Dynamics of Automotive Competition: Product Innovation,Change, and Marketplace Survival

Innovation and new model development have been paramount in the U.S. automotive industry. The industry has invested around $16–18 billion annually to launch new models and improve existing ones in response to incessant evolution of consumer preferences, competitive pressures, and changes in safety and emission regulations. Although these investments have significantly reduced cycle time and increased efficiency (e.g., through platform communization), it still costs around $1 billion to develop and launch a new model from scratch. Therefore, the strategic focus in the U.S. automotive industry is rapidly shifting away from manufacturing efficiency to product development and innovation as firms engage in an “arms race” to develop innovative new products ahead of the competition. The outcome of this new focus manifests itself in the total development time for a new platform vehicle, which is expected to drop from roughly four years in 1998 to two years in 2014. As development cycles continue to shorten, competition in the industry intensifies, and a new insight is needed to better understand how increased competition can affect the gains from innovations. The need for research to fill this gap is especially critical as executives continue to grow more cynical about returns offered by increases in research and development (R&D) expenditures and see no statistically significant relationship between R&D expenditures and firm performance. This study attempts to address this gap by adopting a coevolutionary perspective that analyzes the relationship between innovations and firm performance by accounting for the impact of competitive forces in the industry. First, this study explicitly models competitive interactions between firms, known in the ecology literature as the Red Queen competition, in which gains from innovations are relative and impermanent. Second, hypotheses are tested using a comprehensive data set comprising all automobile manufacturers ever known to compete in the U.S. automobile market at any time between 1891 and 2000. Complete coverage of 110 years enables precise analysis of the link between innovations and firm performance as well as the coevolution in the U.S. automobile industry. The results suggest that although extensiveness of an innovation is relevant, a firm's ability to keep up with the competition in the innovation arms race is a more significant driver of survival in the market. Thus, firms cannot simply evaluate their innovation efforts in a silo but must constantly assess their efforts versus the innovation launches of their key competitors. Based on the findings, automotive manufacturers must develop a structured product development program that allows for continual and steady new product introductions; otherwise, even momentary setbacks can have a damaging impact on a firm's ability to survive in the automotive marketplace.     

Firm Characteristics and NPD Program Success: The Significant Influence of Global Discovery Management

Managing new product development (NPD) with a global point of view is argued to be essential in current business more than ever. Accordingly, many firms are trying to revitalize their NPD processes to make them more global. Therefore, examining global NPD management is one of the top priorities for research. While scholars have examined global launch management, there has been scant attention on the direct effect of global discovery management on NPD success. Therefore, this study investigates how a globally managed discovery phase enhances a firm's overall NPD success. Drawing upon the resource‐based view (RBV) and using Kotabe's ( 1990 ) generic model for market success in global competition as the overarching framework, this study examines four drivers of NPD success: global discovery management, the firm's “global footprint,” its inbound knowledge sourcing practices (i.e., “open innovation proclivity”), and nationality of the teams (i.e., “cross‐national global NPD team use”). The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 255 business units from multiple industries, headquartered worldwide, and surveyed during the 2012 PDMA Comparative Performance Assessment Study (CPAS). The PLM‐SEM analyses show that, of the four drivers examined, only global discovery management strongly influences a firm's NPD program success. The findings enhance our understanding of the particularities in global NPD. Based on the study's results, suggestions are provided as to how multinationals can leverage their international operations in the course of their front‐end activities.     

MARKET STRUCTURE AND PRICING STRATEGY OF CHINA'S AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY*

In this study, using market‐level data on quantities, prices' and automobile characteristics from 1995 to 2001, we conduct a market analysis of the Chinese automobile industry under imperfect competition. On the demand side, we apply a nested multinomial logit model to the national market share data in order to ascertain the demand features of China's automobile market. On the supply side, we assume Bertrand behavior to uncover the markups set by automobile manufacturers. Our empirical results suggest that some large automobile manufacturers set high markups, indicating their strong market power in China's automobile market. However, their declining markups in the late 1990's imply a reduction in market control by the major producers.     

Knowledge,firm boundaries,and innovation: Mitigating the incumbent's curse during radical technological change

We explore the relationship between a firm's organization and its ability to face a radical technological change. We suggest that, during such a change, the presence of both in‐house upstream knowledge and downstream market linkages, within a firm's boundary, has its advantages. We test our predictions in the context of the robotics industry where manufacturers of mechanically controlled “brawny” robots, which were valued mainly for their payload capacity, faced the advent of electrically controlled “brainy” robots that emphasized accuracy and repeatability. We find that “preadapted” firms—the ones with prior relevant technological knowledge and with access to internal users of “brainy” robots—were the innovation leaders in the emerging new technology but were laggards in the old technology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Where Firm‐Level Innovation and Industrial Policy Meet: Consensus Roadmaps for Low‐Carbon Powertrain Technologies

Environmental mandates, energy security concerns, and societal demands place considerable pressure on automotive manufacturers to develop novel powertrain technologies that reduce energy consumption, and in turn, carbon emissions. The economic case for these novel technologies is far from clear, however, and firms often turn to the respective national governments for R&D aid and demand‐side subsidies. Government on the other hand often feels unable to back any single technology for competition regulatory reasons, while at the same time being presented with conflicting messages from industry where to focus its support. This paper reports on an initiative by the U.K. Government that led to the establishment of a permanent forum for government‐industry exchange, the Automotive Council U.K., in which the author has participated from the outset. In the course of the Council's work, two “consensus roadmaps” have been developed jointly by industry and the U.K. Government to guide national efforts in the transition for both passenger car and commercial vehicle powertrain technologies toward low‐carbon alternatives. This paper discusses the key technological development stages and projections outlined in these technology roadmaps and comments on the general determinants of an effective interaction between government and industry in the light of a technological discontinuity.     

中国汽车工业的发展趋势及对策

2002年中国汽车工业面对加入WTO后的冲击，发展迅速。但是，中国汽车工业从整体上看，仍然是一个国际竞争力较弱的产业。在加入W凹后更加开放的市场环境中，中国汽车工业逐步从制造、研究开发、销售服务、汽车信贷等方面全面融入世界汽车工业体系。通过使自身全面融入世界汽车工业体系，中国汽车工业将获得更加迅速的发展，并且逐步成为世界汽车工业的主要制造基地之一。就长远来看，中国汽车工业也必将获得自主开发的能力，并且逐步提高其在世界汽车工业体系中的地位。     

The Evolution of “Competition”: Lessons for 21st Century Telecommunications Policy

For over a century, assessments of competition or the lack thereof have been central to how public policy treats the telecommunications industry. This centrality continues today. Yet, numerous foundational questions about this concept persist. In this paper, we chronicle how the definition of “competition” has evolved in economics and has been applied in the communications arena. The academic literature on competition hits an important inflection point in the mid-20th century with the development of “workable competition”: a term that is equated to “effective competition.” We find that while the concept of “effective competition” is central to policy formation at the FCC, the Commission’s own applications of “effective competition” are inconsistent. Given the centrality of this concept, and its inconsistent applications to date, we draw upon the seminal contributions to the development of the notion of “effective competition” to offer a modern definition suitable for application in 21st century communications markets.     

Safe storage of dilute ethylene oxide mixtures in water

In the past industry has had to rely on a number of “rules of thumb” to provide a means of reasonable analysis for many design, operation, safety and similar issues. The lack of readily available computing facilities made the use of “rules of thumb” a necessary part of doing business in the hydrocarbon processing industry. And these “rules of thumb” have proven useful and allowed many tasks to be accomplished successfully. Today, however, availability of mainframe computers or desktop computing facilities has provided a tool that has decreased the need to rely on “rules of thumb.” And in many cases processing improvements can only be accomplished by replacing “rules of thumb” with more rigorous analysis. In the ethylene oxide producing/consuming industry a widely-used “rule of thumb” concerns the storage of ethylene oxide water solutions. A well-publicized “rule” stated that solutions in excess of 1-2 weight percent ethylene oxide in water should not be stored [1]. This “rule” is certainly valid in many situations. However, this guideline may be unnecessarily restrictive in other cases. The impact of several key process parameters impacts the amount of ethylene oxide in water than can be safely stored. This study will show that higher concentrations of ethylene oxide in water can be safely stored under the right circumstances. The study will also discuss the key variables that determine whether aqueous ethylene oxide solutions can be safely stored. Finally, a methodology used in determining how much ethylene oxide in water can be safely stored will be outlined.     

Politics,policy and fixed-line telecommunications provision: Insights from Australia

Over the past 40 years, telecommunications policy worldwide has been dominated by the privatisation of former government-owned firms, the pursuit of increasing competition as well as the delegation of day-to-day operations of industry decision-making and oversight from core governments to autonomous regulators sitting at arms-length from political decision-making. One of the most (apparently) dramatic reversals of this trend has occurred in Australia where the federal government has set up a state-owned company (NBN Co) to fully replace and upgrade the fixed-line infrastructure for voice and broadband communications for the entire country. Some argued that the NBN heralded a reversal of a “failed, neoliberal” deregulation and pro-competition policy agenda in Australia, and a return to “social democratic” values. The NBN has attracted interest as a possible model for other governments looking to fund broadband infrastructure.The NBN Co's network is nearing completion. It has proved disappointing in many ways, with costs escalations, missed deadlines and a downscaling of the original full-fibre footprint to a mixed technology model (MTM). It has also proved politically divisive, with some claiming the MTM changes represent the reassertion of a neoliberal political agenda. In this paper, we trace the evolution of the fixed-line telecommunications industry in Australia from the 1980s to the present along the dimensions of privatisation, deregulation and competition in voice, broadband and policy settings. We find that contrary to popular political rhetoric, the Australian industry reforms have been characterised by only a partial and inconsistent progression towards the international policy objectives. In particular, ongoing government ownership of the incumbent created perverse incentives for both regulatory and industry actors and ensured political involvement in import network investment and operations decisions which in other jurisdictions are delegated to private-sector owners and regulators at arms-length from political influence. We contend that the NBN was not a social democratic response to failed neoliberal policies, nor was the MTM a neoliberal reassertion. Rather, the politicisation of the NBN is a function of the inability to decentralise ownership and control of the industry away from the government. These issues will continue to dominate the Australian debate, as the statutory context requires the privatisation of the NBN within five years of its projected 2021 completion. Extreme caution is warranted for jurisdictions looking to the NBN model for guidance.     

The external knowledge sourcing process in multinational corporations

Research summary: We study the processes through which multinational corporations (MNCs) identify and make use of external sources of knowledge. Based on a seven‐year longitudinal study of one MNC's overseas scouting unit, we show how a simple one‐directional “channelling” process gradually gave way to three higher value‐added processes, labelled “translating,” “matchmaking,” and “transforming.” Building on these insights, we develop an integrative framework, defining the conditions under which each of the four processes is likely to transpire, and showing how the stock of social capital held by the scouting unit allows it to perform increasingly high value‐added activities over time. Implications for the MNC, external knowledge sourcing, and boundary‐spanning literatures are discussed. Managerial summary: Over the years, many multinational corporations (MNCs) have created overseas “scouting” units to tap into new ideas and opportunities in leading‐edge markets, but with mixed outcomes. In this study, we describe the development of a European telecom firm's scouting unit in Silicon Valley during the 2000s, focusing on the specific approaches used by the scouting managers to build effective connections between Silicon Valley start‐ups and the firm's business units back in Europe. We identify four distinct approaches for different types of opportunities, and we observe a clear sequencing of effort over time as the scouting managers built the necessary capabilities and credibility. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Influence of Knowledge Accumulation on Buyer-Supplier Codevelopment Projects

This article investigates innovation across a supply chain and considers how knowledge accumulation as a consequence of buyer‐supplier codevelopment projects can influence the projects' specifications. The setting is the semiconductor industry, and the players are chip producers who cooperate with their suppliers to modify their manufacturing equipment used to produce new semiconductor devices. Two detailed case studies were undertaken to determine the tradeoffs encountered by the buyer and supplier when setting the parameters that govern codevelopment projects. The findings from the case studies inform a conceptual framework that outlines the net payoffs to buyers when deciding whether to “make” or “buy” their production equipment. If buyers pursue the “make” option, they then have to decide the degree to which they sponsor modifications tailored to their production processes or modifications more generally applicable across the industry. More generally applicable modifications likely would prompt suppliers to invest relatively more in follow‐on knowledge creation for upgrades and field support while leading to lower equipment costs due to economies of scale from larger production runs of the new equipment. The framework suggests that when making this sequence of decisions, an innovative buyer also weighs the importance of codevelopment for securing intellectual property rights, guaranteeing early access to new equipment enabling early product launch, and achieving high production yields quickly due to “previewing” the equipment. The conceptual framework leads to a multi‐period model that focuses on the importance of knowledge accumulation for project parameterization. As captured by the model, buyers may prefer generally applicable modifications to customized ones, because generally applicable modifications may lead to greater knowledge accumulation at the supplier. This knowledge accumulation may be either “embodied” in equipment upgrades or “unembodied” in improved field support. In addition to shaping the nature of particular codevelopment projects, knowledge accumulation also may have profound implications for long‐run industry structure. As seen in the semiconductor industry, knowledge accumulation at equipment suppliers has contributed to the rise of contract manufacturers, because these manufacturers can outfit their production facilities with equipment that embodies the accumulated knowledge. These findings suggest that for both short‐run and long‐run reasons, the dynamics of knowledge accumulation merit thorough attention when members of a supply chain cooperate during the course of new product development.     

Reasons for corporate research and development spin‐outs – the chemical and pharmaceutical industry as example

The spin‐out of research and development (R&D) activities from established companies has increased during recent years. The reasons for realising corporate spin‐outs, especially regarding the involvement of financial investors, were investigated based on 30 European case studies within the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The reasons can be categorised into two groups: an investment and a divestment rationale. Whereas the chemical industry uses both rationales, there are only divestment cases in the pharmaceutical industry. The investment cases within the chemical industry show that R&D spin‐outs can make an important contribution towards the flexibilisation and performance improvement of a company's internal R&D. The divestment cases show that R&D spin‐outs can be a suitable possibility to continue promising R&D activities. The survival rate of the analysed spin‐outs is high and numerous new jobs have been created in the past years, especially in pharmaceutical spin‐outs.     

Defending Dock Workers—Globalization and Labor Relations in the World's Ports

Globalization has precipitated a major restructuring of the world's ports and brought in its wake a marked deterioration in dock workers’ terms and conditions of employment. Many trade unions have found it difficult to protect their members’ interests against this international “race to the bottom,” most notably in those countries where dock labor has been historically poorly organized but also where industrial restructuring has been used as a vehicle to de‐unionize the industry. Other unions have been more successful, either by working in concert with private employers and public port authorities or by mobilizing their membership to contest and contain the process of industrial restructuring.     

The impact of technical consultants on the quality of their clients' products: Evidence from the Bordeaux wine industry

Research summary : Recent research rooted in the resource‐based view of the firm suggests that resources are more likely to create value if they are effectively managed. An underlying assumption of the literature is that firms manage their resources on their own. However, many firms hire consultants to help them do so. In this study, I develop and test hypotheses regarding the impact of technical consultants on the quality of their clients' products. Using data from the Bordeaux wine industry, I find evidence that the use of technical consultants has a positive impact on relative product quality and a negative impact on the extremeness of relative product quality. Moreover, the positive impact of technical consultants on relative product quality is stronger at lower levels of relative resource quality. Managerial summary : Findings from a study in the Bordeaux wine industry indicate that the decision to hire consultants should depend on a firm's strategy. If a firm wants to improve its performance, it should hire consultants. Indeed, the “best practices” of technical consultants are generally more valuable than internally generated knowledge. If a firm wants to achieve outstanding performance, hiring consultants may not be the right decision. Because the “best practices” of technical consultants have more certain performance implications than internally generated knowledge, they decrease the likelihood of extremely low performance. However, their lack of uniqueness also decreases the likelihood of extremely high performance. Finally, the decision to hire consultants should depend on the quality of a firm's resources. Firms with low‐quality resources tend to benefit more from the “best practices” of technical consultants. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolving 5G case study in United States unilateral spectrum planning and policy

This paper tracks increasingly aggressive initiatives by the United States government to reallocate spectrum on an expedited and unilateral basis well before conclusion of inter-governmental coordination. Rather than embrace the customary commitment to achieve consensus on global spectrum allocations at the International Telecommunication Union (“ITU”), the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) has auctioned off large blocks of frequencies for the next generation (“5G”) of wireless services.The FCC might have framed its first 5G auction, reassigning Ultra High Frequency (“UHF”) spectrum, as a one-time deviation from compliance with long standing, intergovernmental coordination procedures. These frequencies have ideal signal propagation characteristics and the Commission could use financial incentives—unavailable in most nations—to expedite “repacking” by incumbent broadcasters willing to move, share or abandon spectrum in exchange for ample financial compensation. However, the FCC has continued to auction off 5G spectrum on grounds that it must find ways to abate an acute shortage of wireless bandwidth and doing so will regain or maintain global leadership in wireless technologies. This paper offers a critical rebuke to unilateral spectrum management, because the short-term benefits expected by the U. S. government likely will be offset by countervailing harms to 5G manufacturers, carriers and consumers. The paper tracks fractious preparation for the ITU's 2019 World Radio Conference by the U.S. delegation and the mixed record achieved there. Additionally, the paper explains how injecting trade, industrial policy and national security issues at the ITU can trigger more delays and disputes, including possible retaliation by nations displeased with U.S. efforts to subvert traditional technology optimization goals.A worst case scenario has the ITU deadlocked and unable to reach closure on “mission critical” spectrum planning issues at World Radio Conferences, convened every four years. The paper concludes that costs and likely challenges to the efficacy and legitimacy of the ITU will reduce the benefits accruing from the FCC's unilateral, spectrum planning campaign.     

Willingness-to-pay for natural,organic, and conventional foods: The effects of information and meaningful labels

Vague food labels and distorted product claims have persisted in the “natural” food industry, while organic claims can be certified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Using experimental methods and a sample of randomly selected subjects, we test food label and information treatment effects on subjects' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for organic, “natural,” and conventional foods. Random nth-price auctions are used to elicit WTP after subjects received one of five randomly assigned information treatments. We find large information effects, including asymmetric cross-market effects for natural and organic foods. Perhaps surprising is that organic premiums increase in response to subjects seeing the “natural” foods industry's perspective on its products. Demographics effects are also important. The results have practical implications for natural and organic food marketing and valuing products where there are vague claims about their attributes.     

The economics of adventitious presence thresholds in the EU seed market

Since settling on its mandatory labeling rules for genetically modified (GM) foods in the late 1990s, the European Commission has considered a number of times setting tolerance levels (thresholds) for the accidental presence of GM material in conventional seeds. In every case, it has opted to defer the decision. In the absence of such thresholds, current European labeling laws require that seeds be labeled as GM if they contain any detectable trace of GMOs approved for cultivation in the EU. Conventional seeds with detectable traces of GMOs that have not been authorized for cultivation cannot be sold in the European market altogether. As the acreage of GM crops has continued to grow at a fast pace around the world, industry calls to the EU Commission for setting “practical” adventitious presence (AP) thresholds for conventional seeds in the EU have multiplied. In this paper, we examine the economics of alternative AP thresholds for conventional seeds in Europe from the perspective of those who must comply with the regulation – EU seed firms. Specifically, we first examine the operational changes that might be necessary for seed firms to comply with alternative AP thresholds for conventional seeds. Then, we analyze the associated market uncertainties, compliance costs and their implications on firm and industry competitiveness.