The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Value of agricultural non-point source pollution measurement technology: assessment from a policy perspective

The development of accurate non-point source pollution assessment technologies allows the implementation of more efficient policies than can be undertaken in their absence. This study estimates the value of accurate measurement technology by estimating the gains from implementing a more efficient policy, one that targets agricultural non-point source emission reductions at the field scale but requires accurate field scale measurement technology, relative to a practice-based policy that can be implemented in the absence of such technology. For the environmental benefit of carbon sequestration, large cost savings are found due to improved targeting of conservation tillage subsidies for the state of Iowa. The ability of the government to cost discriminate is found to have little impact on the value of accurate measurement technology.     

The pricing of protected areas in nature-based tourism: A local perspective

This paper extends the literature on optimal pricing of recreation in protected areas by introducing price discrimination between groups of visitors and, given that the agency charges different prices to subsets of visitors, by including a distributional dimension that is particularly relevant for a national park agency receiving visitors from different origins. Other issues related to optimal entrance fees, including negative ecological impacts and positive spillover effects on local communities resulting from changes in visitation, are also discussed. Based on this model, the paper provides an estimation of optimal entrance fees and revenues for the Costa Rican system of protected areas.     

Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis

In landscape planning, land-use types need to be compared including the ecosystem services they provide. With multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), ecological economics offers a useful tool for environmental questions but mostly case-specific criteria are applied. This, however, makes it difficult to compare findings. Therefore, we present a systematic framework that includes the ecosystem services as criteria into MCDA. The ecological quantification of the provided ecosystem services is combined with the assigned importance of the single ecosystem services. In a case study from the central Alps, we compared three land-use alternatives resulting from land-use change caused by socio-economic pressures: traditional larch (Larix decidua) meadow, spruce forest (abandonment) and intensive meadow (intensification).Criteria for the MCDA model were selected by experts, criteria importance was ranked by stakeholders and criteria values were assessed with qualitative and quantitative indicators. Eventually spruce forest was ranked as the best land-use alternative followed by traditional larch meadow and intensive meadow. The combined approach of MCDA using ecosystem services as criteria showed how criteria weightings and criteria indicator values influence land-use alternatives' performance. The MCDA-model visualizes the consequences of land-use change for ecosystem service provision, facilitating landscape planning by structuring environmental problems and providing data for decisions.     

Information technology,transaction costs and the decision to 'make or buy'

Information and communication technology (ICT) has a wide ranging impact on business. One of the effects is on the 'make or buy decision'. This is analysed from the perspective of transactzon cost economm (TCE). On the one hand ICT reduces transaction costs by reducing search costs, by facilitating monitoring and control of performance and by yielding a greater flexibility of production, which reduces the transaction specificity of assets. These efiects, favour the decision to 'buy'. On the other hand, ICT reduces economies of scale, in some areas of production, which makes outside production i n a specializedfirm less attractive. Also, ICT may be used to impose switching costs between suppliers and buyers, thereby miszng transaction costs. But such ploys appear to be feasible only temporarily, with a pressure from users and competitors towards standardization and open systems. Thus the effects of ICT are diverse, but on the whole it tends to favour the option to contract out.     

Information technology, transaction costs and the decision to 'make or buy'

Information and communication technology (ICT) has a wide ranging impact on business. One of the effects is on the 'make or buy decision'. This is analysed from the perspective of transactzon cost economm (TCE). On the one hand ICT reduces transaction costs by reducing search costs, by facilitating monitoring and control of performance and by yielding a greater flexibility of production, which reduces the transaction specificity of assets. These efiects, favour the decision to 'buy'. On the other hand, ICT reduces economies of scale, in some areas of production, which makes outside production i n a specializedfirm less attractive. Also, ICT may be used to impose switching costs between suppliers and buyers, thereby miszng transaction costs. But such ploys appear to be feasible only temporarily, with a pressure from users and competitors towards standardization and open systems. Thus the effects of ICT are diverse, but on the whole it tends to favour the option to contract out.     

Politics and institutions: European parliamentary technology assessment

This paper analyses, from an institutionalist perspective, the emergence, nature and ways in which parliamentary scientific and technological advice activities are carried out in different European countries. A diffusion process from the United Sates could be identified in the early times, but some local preconditions are also important for the adoption of these practices in Europe, as well as the existence of some political entrepreneurs willing to advance the initiatives within their respective political systems. We argue that the connection of technology assessment (TA) with the political process can only be understood if the former is regarded not only as an input in the decision-making process but also as a legitimising mechanism.Different models of arrangements of parliamentary TA (PTA) are identified, depending on the degree of inclusiveness of different actors in the TA process. The adaptation, consolidation and differential impact of these organizations are mediated by two factors: the capacity of PTA organizations to gain support, both inside and outside the Legislature, and their capacity to access decision makers in an environment of competition with other organizations that also produce TA. Models of PTA have both types of these capacities in differing degrees. It is argued that differences in the potential impact of TA activities in the different countries are to be analysed in the context of the rules of the political game and the types of incentives that TA organizations face. The degree of autonomy/dependence and exclusivity/nonexclusivity of the assessment for the parliaments are essential for understanding the diversity of impacts.     

The Chinese model for science and technology: Its relevance for other developing countries

This paper examines the growth of an indigenous scientific and technological capability through self-reliance (the “Chinese model”). It is a strategy that offers developing countries an alternative to dependence on technological transfer from the industrially advanced nations. The Chinese policy focuses on three major areas: choice of technologies, rural industrialization to balance agricultural and industrial growth, and mobilization of manpower resources to research and implement technologies for increased growth.     

The WTO dispute settlement system: a first assessment from an economic perspective

We explore the incentives countries face in trade litigationwithin the new WTO dispute settlement system. Our analysis yieldsa number of interesting predictions, First, because sanctionsare ruled out during the litigation process, the dispute settlementsystem does not preclude all new trade restrictions. However,the agenda-setting capacity of the complainant, including itsright to force a decision, make trade restrictions less attractivethan under the WTO's predecessor, GATT. Second, the system'sappellate review provides the losing defendant with strong incentivesto delay negative findings, and both parties with a possibilityto signal their determinacy in fighting the case. Third, a relativelyweak implementation procedure potentially reinforces incentivesto violate WTO trade rules. Fourth, bilateral settlements aremore likely at an early stage in the process and are biasedtoward the expected outcome of the formal dispute settlementprocedure. Empirical evidence based on a first dataset of casesat an advanced stage of the litigation process provides qualitativesupport for our claims.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Quick and dirty technology assessment: The case of an Italian Research Centre

Technology assessment has an increasingly critical role to play, in light of the fact that technology is the ultimate source of competitive advantage for companies, and of economic and social development for nations. In this paper, we present a methodology for a “quick and dirty” technology assessment, developed with reference to a real-word case study. The case in question is that of a large Italian Research Centre, whose top management required a rapid assessment of the technological competences, resources and results of the organisation. Because technology assessment is inherently highly complex, the problem consisted in reducing the complexity to obtain a simple methodology that could be rapidly deployed in practice.In summary, this paper: (i) describes a methodology for a “quick and dirty” technology assessment, effectively implemented in practice; (ii) points out the main problems/difficulties encountered and the possible solutions; (iii) discusses the results and the validity/applicability of the formulated methodology.     

Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

Developing technology assessment methodology: Some insights and experiences

The authors suggest that policy-oriented assessments of newly emerging technologies could benefit from explicit attention to methodological concerns. Although some of the early literature attempted to develop distinct methodology for performing technology assessment, the authors do not believe that a singular approach is possible. In spite of having some common elements or aspects, assessments vary widely depending upon their specific subject matter, the normative factors included in them, and the policy work to which they pertain. Thus, the methodology appropriate for any particular assessment must be derived from experimental knowledge and “savvy” as well as the more formal and replicable techniques. In closing, the authors urge persons involved in technology assessment to share their project experiences; such a practice will facilitate the creation of a larger pool of competence and help others to cope with the difficulties that have befallen previous technology assessment studies.¹     

Are data arising from economic evaluation truly the solution to better decision making: a more global perspective

Summary

It is now over 10 years since economic evaluation was used in some countries as part of the formal requirement in the process of pricing, reimbursement and formulary consideration for new pharmaceuticals and devices. Despite the advancement seen over the years, there is still doubt regarding the true value of data generated from pharmacoeconomic studies due to factors such as generalisability of data, design of studies, transparency of models, and barriers in their final application. In addition, results and conclusions from studies performed in western countries are often referred to as the standard and even used as a basis in decision making in other developing countries. In the face of all these uncertainties, what sort of attitude should researchers in this field adopt and what is likely to happen in the next decade that will exert a significant influence? This editorial attempts to summarise these problems and also point out the areas that have not been adequately addressed over the years with a view to stimulating some discussion and input from those who are interested in health economics and have contributed to its development.