Geographical diversification using ETFs: Multinational evidence from COVID-19 pandemic

We examine the relations between dollar flows of U.S. listed ETFs with exposure to the U.S., Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world following an emergency like the COVID-19 crisis. Using a Markov Switching Model (MSVAR), we find evidence that investors use ETFs to gain exposure to foreign markets and swiftly adjust their portfolio's allocation in response to the change in the number of COVID-19 infected people in every location. We further extend our study to ETFs listed in the U.S., Europe, and Asia and investigate the change in foreign and domestic money flow, before and after the pandemic. We show that investors around the world rebalance their portfolios by monitoring the countries’ performance in controlling the pandemic. Our findings show that while investors in the U.S. and Asian countries direct their money to domestic funds and reduce their foreign investment following the pandemic, European investors increase foreign investment and reduce home bias. This is consistent with the flight-to-safety effect when investors shift their asset allocation away from riskier investments (here riskier locations) and into safer ones during the adverse economic shock.     

The shock of COVID-19 and the shock of rapid vaccine development on the value of senior life settlement contracts

In this paper, we develop a model that can capture how COVID-19 and the subsequent rapid vaccine development against COVID-19 impacts the value of pools of senior life settlements. The pandemic unexpectedly boosted the mortality rates of senior citizens who had prior diagnoses of certain health conditions. Our model accounts for the existence and concentration of these COVID-19 comorbidities in portfolios of senior life settlements. It is the concentration of assets linked to the mortality rates of a group who is at elevated risk to COVID-19 and who is also the primary beneficiaries of the COVID-19 vaccine that we examine. We illustrate how the shock of the pandemic increases the value of senior life settlements and how the accelerated development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines moderated this increase. Our model is general enough to simulate the impact on other financial contracts that are linked to individual mortality rates. These would include life insurance contracts, annuities, and health insurance policies.     

Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

The debate over how firm stakeholder engagement is tied to preserving shareholder wealth has received growing attention in recent years, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Against this backdrop, we examine the relation between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced market crash and the post-crash recovery. Using a sample of 1750 U.S. firms and two major sources of CSR ratings, we find no evidence that CSR affected stock returns during the crash period. This result is robust to various sensitivity tests. In additional cross-sectional analysis, we find some supporting evidence, albeit weak, that the relation between CSR and stock returns during the pandemic-related crisis is more positive when CSR is congruent with a firm's institutional environment. We also find that Business Roundtable companies, which committed to protecting stakeholder interests prior to the pandemic, do not outperform during the pandemic crisis. We conclude that pre-crisis CSR is not effective at shielding shareholder wealth from the adverse effects of a crisis, suggesting a potential disconnect between firms' CSR orientation (ratings) and actual actions. Our evidence suggests that investors can distinguish between genuine CSR and firms engaging in cheap talk.     

Comparing the impact of Chinese and U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of major global stock markets

This study compares the impact of Chinese and U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) (proxied by the EPU index) on the volatility of 11 major stock markets. Unlike previous research that only utilizes monthly EPU for such a comparison, this study uses both daily and monthly data to examine the impact within a month as well as over months. In order to provide a detailed analysis, EPU shocks are investigated from a two-sided viewpoint: one considering the effects of EPU indices as exogenous shocks, and the other examining the spillovers from EPU indices as endogenous variables. Meanwhile, the role of global turmoil, such as the 2007–2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, in influencing the impact of Chinese (or U.S.) EPU is highlighted. The results show that the impact of U.S. EPU is reinforced at both daily and monthly frequencies during the GFC, with a greater effect on the European stock markets. After the GFC, the rising influence of Chinese EPU is observed at a monthly frequency in several markets in Asia and elsewhere. Overall, the dynamic spillovers from the EPU indices to stock volatility suggest the dominant role of U.S. EPU in most markets at a daily frequency, while the extent of the spillovers is driven by turbulent events, including the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.     

Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Building on the investment-based asset pricing framework, we show that firms' ability to timely scale down their operations reduces the sensitivity of their equity value to large adverse productivity shocks. Using U.S. data in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our model's predictions. Real flexibility curbs losses in firm value and reduces return volatility, especially for firms with high book-to-market or high COVID-19 exposure, consistent with the idea that the benefits of real flexibility are associated primarily with contraction options during the COVID-19 crisis. Our analysis shows that real flexibility provides incremental and complementary protection beyond financial flexibility. Besides its impact on stock prices, real flexibility also helps firms sustain earnings during 2020, compared with 2019 when the pandemic had not struck. Our work demonstrates that real flexibility is an important tool for corporate managers in navigating episodes of disasters.     

Monitoring the accounting profession under the AICPA code of professional conduct: An analysis of state board of accountancy participation

We study state board of accountancy participation in monitoring the conduct of accounting professionals under the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants’ (AICPA) Code of Professional Conduct (CPC). In doing so, we examine all sanctions imposed by the AICPA under its CPC from 2008 to 2016 to determine the extent to which a state board’s reporting of violations to the AICPA is associated with its full, partial, or non-adoption of the AICPA’s CPC. Our findings suggest that widespread full adoption of the AICPA’s CPC might not result in enhanced state board participation in reporting violations to the AICPA, as might otherwise be expected. Indeed, we find that state boards that partially adopt the AICPA’s CPC report the most violations. We also highlight the variability of state board participation in monitoring the misconduct of accounting professionals and provide suggestions for enhanced monitoring.     

How COVID-19 changed Italian consumers' behavior

We investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected people's health-related choices and spending habits in Italy, the first European country to be heavily affected by the pandemic. We collected about 3000 questionnaires in May and June 2020 (that is, during the stabilization phase that followed the country's lockdown), asking questions taken from the “Survey tool and guidance: rapid, simple, flexible behavioural insights on COVID-19” issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), and correlated the responses with respondents' demographic and socioeconomic profiles. A principal component analysis (PCA) shows three main components that we label “Unusual behavior,” “Precautionary spending,” and “Augmented social distancing,” which vary with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.     

Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?

In this paper, we examine the stock markets’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and stock market returns data from 64 countries over the period January 22, 2020 to April 17, 2020, we find that stock markets responded negatively to the growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases. That is, stock market returns declined as the number of confirmed cases increased. We further find that stock markets reacted more proactively to the growth in number of confirmed cases as compared to the growth in number of deaths. Our analysis also suggests negative market reaction was strong during early days of confirmed cases and then between 40 and 60 days after the initial confirmed cases. Overall, our results suggest that stock markets quickly respond to COVID-19 pandemic and this response varies over time depending on the stage of outbreak.     

COVID-19 Sentiment and the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from the Official News Media and Sina Weibo

This study quantitatively measures the Chinese stock market’s reaction to sentiments regarding the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). Using 6.3 million items of textual data extracted from the official news media and Sina Weibo blogsite, we develop two COVID-19 sentiment indices that capture the moods related to COVID-19. Our sentiment indices are real-time and forward-looking indices in the stock market. We discover that stock returns and turnover rates were positively predicted by the COVID-19 sentiments during the period from December 17, 2019 to March 13, 2020. Consistent with this prediction, margin trading and short selling activities intensified proactively with growth sentiment. Overall, these results illustrate how the effects of the pandemic crisis were amplified by the sentiments.     

Heterogeneously informed trading and the stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the U.S. stock market efficiency from the symmetric and asymmetric perspectives during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore that the pandemic boosts (hurts) the information role of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Specifically, we find that the epidemic outbreak and infection scale strengthen (weaken) the stock return reaction to symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Evidence also indicates that the effect of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading on stocks' permanent price shocks and price informational efficiency is enhanced (impaired) during the pandemic. Moreover, all these effects are consistently more intensive to informed buys.     

Short-selling activities in the time of COVID-19

This study examines the daily short-selling activities in the U.S. market during the early 2020 outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Our findings indicate firms that are more sensitive to the shock (i.e., with high foreign exposure, low financial or operating flexibility, or high supply-chain exposure) were shorted more heavily. Moreover, short-selling activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, blamed for triggering stock market crashes, were primarily concentrated around overpriced stocks. This finding supports the argument that short selling plays a prominent role in improving price discoveries. Our research provides timely empirical evidence supporting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) non-intervention approach in banning short selling in the U.S. market.     

The Economics of Lockdown

In this paper, we suggest an approach to analysing policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. We discuss the formulation of policy and sketch how the approach can be applied to different specific challenges as policymakers try to make difficult choices for managing the pandemic and protecting the economy and society.     

Disparities Old and New in US Mental Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic*

The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced well-being and economic security on a number of dimensions, likely worsening mental health. In this paper, we assess how mental health in the US population has changed during the pandemic. We use three large, nationally representative survey sources to provide a picture of mental health prior to and during the pandemic. We find dramatic but broad-based declines in the level of mental health from pre-pandemic baseline measures across both people and places. Rates of poor mental health have jumped roughly 25 percentage points, from a base of roughly one-third. We document substantial disparities in mental health but show that the pandemic has generally preserved, rather than widened, these. Significant worsening in relative mental health among Hispanics and respondents aged 30 and older are exceptions. Consistent with an important role for pandemic-specific shocks, We find that income loss, food insecurity, COVID-19 infection or death in one's close circle, and personal health symptoms are all associated with substantially worse mental health. If anything, the decline in mental health is worsening as the pandemic wears on and is becoming less related to local COVID-19 case rates.     

Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors

Using one-minute intraday data and wavelet decomposition of stochastic processes we obtain realised VCOV matrices with and without price discontinuities in the U.S. Treasuries and precious metals futures. Our work provides determinants of co-jumps in gold, silver and U.S. Treasuries across the yield curve and empirically demonstrates impact of price discontinues on hypothetical investor through realised correlations, hedging effectiveness ratios and several portfolio settings. We find that co-jumps in gold and silver have similar monetary characteristics to co-jumps in gold or silver with U.S. Treasuries futures. We further unpack investor choices between precious metals and U.S. bonds under the presence of high-frequency risks. We show that behaviour puzzle of simultaneous demand for safety and quality during market turmoils disappears if investors are seeking maximum diversification. We also find that runs to safety do not offer statistically significant improvements in diversification benefits unlike runs to short-term quality. Other results uncover higher investments to gold due to the shifts in the U.S. yield curve and potential gains in realised hedging effectiveness for the end of the yield curve investors through asymmetry in co-jumps of gold and U.S. Treasuries during periods of extreme market volatility such as beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

The costs of entrenched boards

This paper investigates empirically how the value of publicly traded firms is affected by arrangements that protect management from removal. Staggered boards, which a majority of U.S. public companies have, substantially insulate boards from removal in either a hostile takeover or a proxy contest. We find that staggered boards are associated with an economically meaningful reduction in firm value (as measured by Tobin's Q). We also provide suggestive evidence that staggered boards bring about, and not merely reflect, a reduced firm value. Finally, we show that the correlation with reduced firm value is stronger for staggered boards that are established in the corporate charter (which shareholders cannot amend) than for staggered boards established in the company's bylaws (which shareholders can amend).     

新冠肺炎疫情对发展中国家与新兴经济体包容性增长的影响研究

新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济发展造成巨大冲击,尤其给发展中国家与新兴经济体的包容性增长带来严重影响。本文通过分析新冠肺炎疫情对发展中国家和新兴经济体包容性增长的影响,总结发展中国家和新兴经济体在疫情冲击下的宏观经济政策,发现疫情对发展中国家与新兴经济体包容性增长产生的严重冲击主要包括经济遭受重创、贫困人口大幅反弹、收入不平等加剧和失业率上升等。基于此,提出发展中国家与新兴经济体要通过强化疫情防控、多种政策工具协同发力和加大对弱势群体的帮扶力度等措施,减弱疫情的影响,促进包容性增长。     

Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines how U.S. multinational firms are affected by foreign currency movements. In light of detailed exchange rate data, we find that 29% of our sample of 935 U.S. firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly affected by currency movements between 1990 and 2001. Results show moreover that U.S. stock returns react asymmetrically to currency movements. By introducing nonlinearity in foreign currency risk exposure, we noticeably increase the precision and the significance of exposure estimates. We demonstrate moreover that asymmetries are more pronounced towards large versus small currency fluctuations than over depreciation and appreciation cycles.     

Corporate Social Responsibility Amid Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Crisis: BRICS vs. OECD Countries

This paper compares today’s corporate management in developing markets (BRICS countries) vs. developed markets (the OECD countries). The influence of determining a new social corporate management season considering social distancing amid the COVID-19 pandemic on emerging markets' economic growth is ascertained and set apart from corporate management in developing markets. This paper helps clarifying and better understanding the role of corporate social responsibility in the conditions of an economic crisis against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic. This work provides scientific arguments that allow solving critical discussions regarding the advantages (growth of quality of life, an increase of business's competitiveness) and costs (limitation of economic growth, non-commercial use of profit, and increased price for goods and services) of domestic production and consumption. In the long-term, responsible financial practices return all investments and allow countries to better cope with a crisis. The research supplies a new view of corporate social responsibility as a measure of crisis management. It reflects its advantages at a time of social distancing in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The institutionalization of corporate social responsibility in emerging countries is not predetermined by internal factors (approach to doing business or organizational culture), if not by external factors (market status, state regulation, and consumer awareness). These circumstances prove the high complexity of strengthening corporate social responsibility in developing countries. In the conditions of social distancing – due to the COVID-19 pandemic – corporate social responsibility goes to a new level. In both developing and developed countries, one of the most widespread manifestations of corporate social responsibility is the entrepreneurship's transition to the remote form of activities. This envisages the provision of remote employment for workers and the online purchase of goods and services for consumers.     

Sustainable mutual fund performance and flow in the recent years through the COVID-19 pandemic

Sustainable investing has gained significant momentum over the past few years. In this paper, we study the performance and flows of sustainable equity mutual funds in recent years through the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the high-sustainable funds perform better than the low-sustainable ones by between 1.32% and 6.96% annually. This outperformance significantly increases during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced market crash and the post-crash pandemic. Similarly, we find that high-sustainable funds attract significantly more investments (or suffer less outflow) than the low-sustainable funds by between 5.28% and 5.76% per annum. These flow differences increase considerably during the market crash, consistent with the ‘flight-to-quality’ effect. We also find that the high-sustainable funds attract significantly more investment during the post-crash pandemic than before the crash. This suggests that investors consider sustainable investing a necessity (not a luxury good), and their taste/attitude towards sustainable investing has changed – now they prioritize ‘investing with a conscience.’