The effects of stochastic wages and non-labor income on labor supply: update and extensions

The analysis of labor supply under risk has a long history dating back to Hicks (The theory of wages, St. Martin’s Press, New York, 2003) and Knight (Risk, uncertainty and profit, Kelly, New York, 1964). In the 1980s more technical papers investigated the impact of stochastic non-labor income and/or wage rate upon labor supply. In this paper, we show that the effect of a mean-preserving increase in risk in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply is best understood as a special case of an Nth degree risk increase (as defined by Ekern (Econ Lett 6:329–333, 1980)) and the conditions for signing the effect of a higher-order risk increase in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply are analogous to those for signing the effect of a simple non-stochastic decrease in wage rate or non-labor income. We thus extend, and provide new and more intuitive interpretations for, related earlier results.     

Uncertainty, Commitment, and Optimal Taxation

This paper examines the optimal tax design problem in the presence of wage uncertainty. The wage has a continuous distribution, individuals are ex ante identical, preferences are separable in labor supply and goods, public policy aims at providing the population with social insurance, and the only restriction on the tax instruments is that emanating from lack of public observability of realized wages and labor supplies. We show that optimal tax structures depend crucially on whether it is labor supply or goods that consumers have to commit to before the resolution of uncertainty. Specifically, we prove that, in the absence of commitment, the social insurance problem collapses to the traditional optimal tax problem. Second, if labor supply is precommitted, it would be possible to effect a first-best outcome. Third, commitment to goods would make indirect taxation a useful instrument of tax policy even in the presence of a general income tax; it requires differential tax treatment of committed and noncommitted goods. Finally, if preferences are separable between the two types of goods, precommitted goods must be taxed at a uniform rate lower than that on the noncommitted goods.     

Hourly wage rate and taxable labor income responsiveness to changes in marginal tax rates

Recently, a voluminous literature estimating the taxable income elasticity has emerged as an important field in empirical public economics. However, to a large extent it is still unknown how the hourly wage rate, an important component of taxable income, reacts to changes in marginal tax rates. In this study we use a rich panel data set and a sequence of tax reforms that took place in Sweden during the 1980s to estimate the elasticity of the hourly wage rate as well as the taxable labor income elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate. We also estimate elasticities with respect to the non-labor income in a way that is novel in the literature. While carefully accounting for the endogeneity of marginal tax rates we find a statistically significant response in wage rates both among married men and women. The estimates of the hourly wage rate elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate fall in the range of 0.14–0.16 for males and 0.41–0.57 for females, whereas the corresponding taxable labor income elasticity estimates hover between 0.19–0.21 for males and 0.96–1.44 for women. Moreover, for men we find that the taxable labor income elasticity with respect to non-labor income is statistically significant; the point estimate being ? 0.07. This implies that the compensated taxable labor income elasticity is about 5 percentage points higher than the uncompensated one. In general, we consider the estimates for males to be more certain and robust than the estimates for females.     

Labor supply,uncertainty, and efficient taxation

We analyze the structure of an optimal linear income tax when workers are uncertain about their wages at the time they choose their labor supplies. Background for the normative analysis is provided by an outline of the positive theory of wage taxation and labor supply under uncertainty. It is then shown that given imperfect information about wages, lump-sum taxation is not necessarily efficient. Because a wage tax reduces the riskiness of wage income, some combination of a lump-sum tax and a wage tax generally will minimize excess burden.     

ECONOMIC MODELLING OF SUICIDE UNDER INCOME UNCERTAINTY: FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF MIDDLE‐AGED SUICIDE*

This paper formalises an individual's decision about suicide within a framework of lifetime utility maximisation models. This is in line with the literature on economic modelling of suicide. The novelty of the paper is to take into account income uncertainty. Income uncertainty reduces a risk‐averse individual's expected utility, making them more likely to commit suicide. On the other hand, income uncertainty creates a value to postponing suicide even when their income gets sufficiently low. This is because income uncertainty means that if things go well, they will get higher income in the future. Thus, income uncertainty has two opposite effects on suicidal behaviour. The main objective of this paper is to construct an economic model of suicide for investigating net impacts of income uncertainty on suicidal behaviour. For this purpose, it is assumed that the wage evolves according to a stochastic process. Then, the threshold wage, below which an individual commits suicide, is derived as a function of the parameters of the stochastic process assumed for the wage evolution. Impacts of changes in these parameters on the threshold wage are calculated. With the result, the paper shows how income uncertainty affects suicidal behaviour.     

Skilled-unskilled wage inequality and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a static three sector competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which skilled labor is mobile between a traded good sector and the non-traded good sector and unskilled labor is specific to another traded good sector. Capital is perfectly mobile among all these three sectors. We introduce involuntary unemployment equilibrium in both the labor markets and explain unemployment using efficiency wage hypothesis. We examine the effects of change in different factor endowments and prices of traded goods on the unemployment rates and on the skilled-unskilled relative wage. Also, we introduce Gini-Coefficient of wage income distribution as a measure of wage income inequality; and show that a comparative static effect may force the skilled-unskilled relative wage and the Gini-Coefficient of wage income distribution to move in opposite directions in the presence of unemployment.     

The Impact of Income Taxation on the Labor Supply of Part-time and Full-time Workers

This paper estimates the effect of income taxation on the labor supply of part-time and full-time workers in the United States. Using a model that incorporates the endogeneity of the net wage rate and the virtual income, and correcting for self-selection into part-time and full-time jobs, the results indicate that part-time workers are relatively more responsive to changes in income tax than full-time workers. Estimated wage elasticities are relatively larger for part-time than for full-time workers.The simulation results indicate that income tax has a disincentive effect on both part-time and full-time workers, with part-time and full-time workers reducing their labor supply by 0.87 and 0.58 hours, respectively, if a 5% tax is imposed. However, the percentage reduction in hours of work is very small, and a tax policy may have little effect on the labor supply of workers.The results seem to suggest that female and black part-time workers are more likely to drop out of the labor force at higher levels of income tax. It also tests the hypothesis that the labor supply behavior of parttime and full-time workers differs.The test results indicate that the determinants of the labor supply of part-time workers are different from those of full-time workers. It is noted that there is a significant difference between the labor supply of male part-time and female parttime workers, as well as between the black part-time and white part-time workers. In order to reduce voluntary unemployment in market activities among married females and blacks, the government can encourage part-time work by sponsoring legislation or instituting a scheme that will allow part-time workers to pay relatively less in payroll taxes.     

The equity premium in a small open economy and an application to Israel

We show that the preferences suggested by Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman (GHH), which are quite common in real business cycle (RBC) models of small open economies, are not suited for reproducing both the business cycle and the equity premium facts of a small open economy. We show that by assuming a moderate degree of a wealth effect on labor supply, together with some limitations on labor supply (in the form of real wage rigidity), we can increase the volatility of the stochastic discount factor (SDF), thereby increasing the equity premium and improving the fit of the business cycle moments. We also find that under the aforementioned assumptions, a shock to the realized return on foreign bonds can help in reproducing the equity premium.     

Asymmetric labor supply

The estimation of labor supply elasticities has been an important issue in the economic literature. Yet all works have estimated conditional mean labor supply functions only. The objective of this paper is to obtain more information on labor supply, estimating a conditional quantile labor supply function. We use a sample of prime age urban males employees in Brazil. Two stage estimators are used as the net wage and nonlabor income are found to be endogenous to the model. Contrary to previous works using conditional mean estimators, it is found that labor supply elasticities vary significantly and asymmetrically across hours of work. While the income and wage elasticities at the standard work week are zero, for those working longer hours the elasticities are negative.     

How fragile are male labor supply function estimates?

We estimate male wage and nonwage income effects using linear specifications spanning three techniques (ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects), two wage measures (reported hourly wages and average hourly earnings), and sample stratification by pay scheme (salaried versus hourly paid). Our regressions encompass the one-period static and perfect-foresight life-cycle models. The static model implies exogenous random person-specific effects, a negative nonwage income coefficient, and a positive labor supply substitution effect. The life-cycle model implies endogenous individual-specific effects, a positive wage coefficient, and a zero nonwage income coefficient. Neither the one-period static nor the perfect-foresight life-cycle models are implied by the data for salaried workers while the static model is consistent with the data for hourly paid workers if income taxes are ignored.     

Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition

This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in income inequality into the contributions of policy changes, wage rate changes, and population changes while considering labor supply reactions. Using data from the Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP), this method is applied to decompose the increase in income inequality in Germany from 2002 to 2011, a period that saw tax reductions and a controversial overhaul of the transfer system. The simulations show that tax and transfer reforms have had an inequality‐reducing effect as measured by the mean log deviation and the Gini coefficient. For the Gini, these effects are offset by labor supply reactions. In contrast, policy changes explain part of the increase in the ratio between the 90th and the 50th income percentiles. Changes in wage rates have led to a decrease in income inequality. Thus, the increase in inequality was due to changes in the population.     

A simultaneous discrete choice model of labor supply and wages for married women in Switzerland

A simultaneous model of female labor supply and wages is estimated. The labor supply model is formulated as a trichotomous discrete choice model in order to take into account the bimodal distribution of observed working hours. For women without observed wages the probability of choosing the observed work category is integrated over all values of the wage. The model is estimated using a sample of married women in Switzerland. The budget constraint is constructed by computing the disposable income for each hours point, taking into account the Swiss income tax system. The estimation results imply relatively modest wage elasticities of expected labor supply for working women. On the other hand the elasticity of the participation probability with respect to wages for nonworkers is twice as large. The magnitude of the income elasticities is comparable to other studies. The wage elasticities obtained with two alternative estimation procedures are considerably lower. These results show that wage elasticities crucially depend on how the problem of unobserved wages is solved.     

最低工资制度能提高民营企业劳动收入占比吗

本文以民营企业要素投入行为为切入点,探讨最低工资制度对民营企业劳动收入占比的影响。基于2005-2008年和2011-2013年中国工业企业数据库民营企业面板数据的研究发现：最低工资制度提高了劳动密集型和资本密集型行业民营企业的劳动收入占比,降低了技术密集型民营企业的劳动收入占比。通过分解影响机制发现,最低工资制度提高了劳动密集型和资本密集型民营企业的工资水平,带来正向的收入效应,但也导致资本替代劳动,产生负向的替代效应。整体而言,最低工资制度提高了民营企业的劳动收入占比。为发挥最低工资制度对民营企业劳动收入占比的正向作用,继续调整最低工资标准、贯彻相关法规实施、提高劳动者技能水平成为重要措施。     

The macroeconomics of the quiet revolution: Understanding the implications of the rise in women’s participation for economic growth and inequality

We study the impact of the rise in female labor supply on the economic performance of the United States over the period 1967–2002 through the lens of a calibrated structural model. The model features all the key forces behind the increase in female participation (the “Quiet Revolution”): (1) the decline in marriage rates, (2) the narrowing gender wage gap, (3) the preference (or cultural) shift towards market work, and (4) the change in women’s bargaining power within the household. We find that preference shifts and the rise in relative wages of women were the most important driving forces behind rising women’s participation, while changes in marriage patterns have also had a sizeable effect. We conclude that half of the growth in US earnings per capita over this period can be traced to growth in female labor supply. We also find that the rise in female labor supply has had offsetting effects on income inequality and, therefore, its overall role has been negligible relative to skill-biased demand shifts and rising residual wage volatility.     

Partial wage indexation with real shocks

This note analyzes wage indexation from a macroeconomic viewpoint. Its purpose is to examine when wage indexation should be partial in the presence of real shocks, and it shows how the conditions for this to be the case depend on the aggregate production function, the income velocity of money, and the labor supply.     

Aging and inequality: The link and transmission mechanisms

There exists a shortage of rigorous empirical analyses that focus on the aging‐to‐inequality transmission mechanisms although both developed and some developing countries have been confronted with the challenge of population aging. Using cross‐country panel data covering the period of 1975 to 2015, this paper contributes to the literature by directly modeling the relationship between aging and inequality and exploring the transmission mechanisms. Our estimation results show that (1) Aging worsens income distribution; (2) This adverse impact is attributable to its negative correlation with the share of labor income that in general is more equally distributed than capital income; (3) The labor share‐reducing effect of aging can be further attributed to the significant and negative impact of aging on both labor input or supply and wage or labor productivity; and (4) Our findings are robust to changes in model specifications, use of different indicators of aging, different inequality and labor share data sources.     

The optimal minimum wage with regulatory uncertainty

For two different regulatory standards, we examine the optimal minimum wage in a competitive labor market when the government is uncertain about supply and demand. Solutions are related to underlying supply and demand conditions, and to the extent of uncertainty and of rationing efficiency. With expected earnings maximization, greater uncertainty widens the range of parameter values for which a minimum wage should be set. With expected worker surplus maximization and sufficiently efficient rationing, a minimum wage should always be set. However, in both cases regulatory uncertainty may require a low minimum wage that may not bind in equilibrium.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.     

Option Values, Switches, and Wages: An Analysis of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in India

Consistent with real option theory, the authors argue that the value of the Employment Guarantee Scheme (EGS) in rural India and its impact on workers' behavior does not depend so much on its income supplementation as on enlargement of opportunities in the uncertain local labor market. The choice between the EGS and other activities is modeled in a dynamic optimization framework, taking into account a fixed wage rate and certainty of employment under the EGS and a stochastic wage rate under other activities. Specifically, volatility of wages in the rural labor markets has important implications for switches into the EGS and for concomitant welfare effects. Under such conditions, the higher the EGS wage, the greater is its attractiveness to relatively skilled and affluent workers, and for those already in it to continue. These and related predictions of the model are validated by panel data estimation.