又回坝上

10月26日,全省宣传思想文化暨服务工作会议结束。适逢星期五,于是搭乘张家口分行参会领导兼同学的车一路向北,赶往张家口,准备到张北乡村看望母亲。为了免去从乡镇到农村步行的费劲与曲折,我于27日早晨乘坐市内通向张北县城的101城际公交,并告知在张北县城工作的杨同学,想用他的车去一趟农村看望母亲,     

Antony Lewis: The basics of bitcoins and blockchains

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

10 ways to create shareholder value

Executives have developed tunnel vision in their pursuit of shareholder value, focusing on short-term performance at the expense of investing in long-term growth. It's time to broaden that perspective and begin shaping business strategies in light of the competitive landscape, not the shareholder list. In this article, Alfred Rappaport offers ten basic principles to help executives create lasting shareholder value. For starters, companies should not manage earnings or provide earnings guidance; those that fail to embrace this first principle of shareholder value will almost certainly be unable to follow the rest. Additionally, leaders should make strategic decisions and acquisitions and carry assets that maximize expected value, even if near-term earnings are negatively affected as a result. During times when there are no credible value-creating opportunities to invest in the business, companies should avoid using excess cash to make investments that look good on the surface but might end up destroying value, such as ill-advised, overpriced acquisitions. It would be better to return the cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. Rappaport also offers guidelines for establishing effective pay incentives at every level of management; emphasizes that senior executives need to lay their wealth on the line just as shareholders do; and urges companies to embrace full disclosure, an antidote to short-term earnings obsession that serves to lessen investor uncertainty, which could reduce the cost of capital and increase the share price. The author notes that a few types of companies--high-tech start-ups, for example, and severely capital-constrained organizations--cannot afford to ignore market pressures for short-term performance. Most companies with a sound, well-executed business model, however, could better realize their potential for creating shareholder value by adopting the ten principles.     

8 ways to build collaborative teams

Executing complex initiatives like acquisitions or an IT overhaul requires a breadth of knowledge that can be provided only by teams that are large, diverse, virtual, and composed of highly educated specialists. The irony is, those same characteristics have an alarming tendency to decrease collaboration on a team. What's a company to do? Gratton, a London Business School professor, and Erickson, president of the Concours Institute, studied 55 large teams and identified those with strong collaboration despite their complexity. Examining the team dynamics and environment at firms ranging from Royal Bank of Scotland to Nokia to Marriott, the authors isolated eight success factors: (1) "Signature" relationship practices that build bonds among the staff, in memorable ways that are particularly suited to a company's business. (2) Role models of collaboration among executives, which help cooperation trickle down to the staff. (3) The establishment of a "gift culture," in which managers support employees by mentoring them daily, instead of a transactional "tit-for-tat culture", (4) Training in relationship skills, such as communication and conflict resolution. (5) A sense of community, which corporate HR can foster by sponsoring group activities. (6) Ambidextrous leadership, or leaders who are both task-oriented and relationship-oriented. (7) Good use of heritage relationships, by populating teams with members who know and trust one another. (8) Role clarity and task ambiguity, achieved by defining individual roles sharply but giving teams latitude on approach. As teams have grown from a standard of 20 members to comprise 100 or more, team practices that once worked well no longer apply. The new complexity of teams requires companies to increase their capacity for collaboration, by making long-term investments that build relationships and trust, and smart near-term decisions about how teams are formed and run.     

Smart rules: six ways to get people to solve problems without you

As the world has become more complex, companies have steadily increased their performance requirements: Now they strive to offer low prices and high quality; to customize products for local markets and standardize them for greater returns; to innovate and be efficient. The typical corporate response to such conflicting goals complicates things further: Firms restructure and try to align their organizations with extra coordinating functions, processes, and incentives. This approach does more harm than good. Managers' time gets sucked up by reports and meetings, leaving little time to work with employees. But there is a better way, says BCG senior partner Yves Morieux: Instead of strangling employees with new rules and procedures, create an environment in which they're compelled to work with one another to develop solutions to complex challenges. Managers can create this environment by applying six "smart rules": (1) improve understanding of what coworkers do and the real constraints they face, (2) determine which people are the firm's natural integrators and strengthen their roles, (3) expand the amount of power available to everyone, (4) increase the need for reciprocity in the system, (5) make employees feel the "shadow of the future," and (6) hold uncooperative people accountable. By tapping employees' ingenuity through the use of smart rules, firms can manage complexity quickly and creatively-and streamline their organizations.     

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identification issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model-based impulse responses. Observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread and typically produced by an ill-behaved mapping between the structural parameters and the coefficients of the solution. Different objective functions affect identification and small samples interact with parameters identification. Diagnostics to detect identification deficiencies are provided and applied to a widely used model.     

Florida's Pension Election: From DB to DC and Back

During the year 2002, the State of Florida's 600,000 public employees were given the choice of converting their traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan into an individual‐account defined contribution (DC) plan with full control over asset allocation and investment decisions. To mitigate some of the risk and uncertainty in the decision, the State granted each employee electing the DC plan an additional option to switch back (i.e., change their mind once) at any point prior to retirement. This option has been labeled the 2nd election by the State and the cost of reentry is fixed at the accumulated benefit obligation of their pension entitlement, which is the present value of the life annuity. Our article presents some original analytic insights relating to the optimal time and financial value of this unique 2nd election. Although our model is deterministic in nature, we believe that it provides a number of intuitive insights that are quite robust. Our results can be contrasted with Lachance, Mitchell, and Smetters (2003) . We estimate that the increase in retirement wealth that arises from having the 2nd election is equivalent to at most 30 percent in future value, and only when utilized optimally. Furthermore, for most State employees above the age of 45, the 2nd election has little economic value because the DB plan dominates the DC plan from day one. Of course, it remains to be seen what percent of Florida's 600,000 employees will elect to behave rationally with their newfound pension autonomy.     

Back to Basics: Forecasting the Revenues of Internet Firms

This paper examines the roles played by past revenues, web usage data, and analysts in forecasting the future revenues of internet firms during the years 1998 to 2000. For this time period our analysis shows that estimates of web traffic growth have significant incremental value in the prediction of revenues above time-series forecasts. Furthermore, analysts almost always underestimate the revenues of internet firms. Historical revenue growth has incremental predictive power over analysts' forecasts for portal and content/community firms, but not for our e-tailer sample. Moreover, the stocks of the portal and content/community firms with high historical revenue growth earn higher abnormal returns during our sample period than do those with low historical growth. Estimates of web usage growth generally do not have incremental value over analysts' forecasts for predicting the revenues of either set of firms. However, perfect foreknowledge of actual web usage growth would provide incremental predictive power. Collectively, our findings point to the potential value for forecasting purposes of both improving upon the web usage estimates and obtaining more timely reports of actual web traffic.     

8招化解供应链风险

经济衰退和复苏都会给企业的供应链带来巨大的风险,这里,我们提供8条建议来协助企业更好地管理供应链(客户和供应商)。1可视化风险,做长远打算只有确切了解供应链中的薄弱环节所在,才能很好地控制它。