Farmers at the heart of the ‘human capital revolution’? Decomposing the numeracy increase in early modern Europe†

Did the early development of skills and numerical abilities occur primarily in urban centres and among the elite groups of society? This study assesses the human capital of different occupational groups in the early modern period and partially confirms this finding: skilled and professional groups had higher levels of numeracy and literacy than persons in unskilled occupations. However, there was another large group that developed substantial human capital and represented around one‐third of the total population: farmers. By analysing numeracy and literacy evidence from six countries in Europe and Latin America, we argue that farmers contributed significantly to the formation of human capital and, consequently, to modern economic growth.     

“Un-American” or unnecessary? America’s rejection of compulsory government health insurance in the Progressive Era

Between 1915 and 1920, 18 U.S. states considered the introduction of compulsory health insurance. Progressive reformers expected state health insurance to be welfare enhancing for American wage-workers since it would result in lower cost insurance and an extension of coverage to more of the population. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that the absence of broad political support for health insurance legislation in this early period reflects that compulsory insurance would not have improved on what was available and affordable through voluntary arrangements and had the potential to reduce the welfare of wage-earners.     

Love Actually? Dissecting the Marriage–Happiness Relationship

Using theoretical concepts based on identity economics, the present paper empirically tests the idea that adherence to social norms to get married can provide an additional utility gain from marriage. Norms to get married should be stronger among more traditionalist individuals, so they should put more emphasis on the mere fact of getting married and put less emphasis on match quality. In the empirical analysis, we used the East Asian Social Survey to estimate and compare both OLS and instrumental variables results. In line with the theoretical predictions, there seems to be an identity‐based happiness gain from marriage for traditionalist individuals. These findings can be interpreted as evidence for identity‐based utility effects from marriage. The results also show important differences between OLS and instrumental variables results, confirming the importance of addressing endogeneity properly.     

Revenge of the Black Cat--Interpretation of Allan Poe＆#39;s＆quot;Black Cat＆quot;

埃德加？爱伦？坡（1809～1849）,十九世纪美国诗人、小说家和文学评论家,同时爱伦坡也是一位恐怖小说大师。《黑猫》便是坡的代表作品之一。猫是整篇文章的线索,为什么一系列事件的发生与猫有关,到底是什么力量使男主人公最后走向毁灭。整个事件因猫而起,因猫而灭,由此作者发现故事中人物病态心理的产生,自我心灵的恐怖过程和最终走向毁灭的原因都是源于黑猫的复仇。本文通过对爱伦坡恐怖小说的背景的探索,及对原著仔细的分析,从黑猫的复仇的角度来解读《黑猫》。     

Surviving the Famine Unscathed? An Analysis of the Long‐Term Health Effects of the Great Chinese Famine

We study the long‐term health effects of the Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 on five cohorts of individuals exposed to it at different stages of their early lives. Based on a 2011 national survey, we use instrumental variables to estimate the impact of the Famine on various health and lifestyle indicators for the whole sample and for the female and male subsamples separately. We have found some negative effects of Famine exposure: (i) for the whole sample, Famine exposure reduced adult height for two out of five cohorts; (ii) for both the female and the male subsamples, Famine exposure reduced adult height in one cohort; and on the whole the reduction was larger for males. We have also found in the subsample that Famine exposure was associated with (i) a higher risk of having hypertension in one cohort for females; (ii) a higher likelihood of smoking in one male cohort; and (iii) a higher probability of consuming alcohol in one cohort for males. Finally, we have not found a statistically significant association between Famine exposure and the risk of being overweight or underweight, having diabetes or other chronic diseases, having depression.     

Earnings Management: Do Firms Play “Follow the Leader”?

In this study we examine whether the reported performance of one firm affects the discretionary reporting behavior of another firm. We do this by identifying the leader within each industry, defined as the first large announcing firm. We find that the discretionary performance of followers (those firms announcing after the leader) relates positively to the leader's reported performance. Specifically, when the leader misses analysts’ expectations, followers report lower discretionary accruals, have fewer income‐decreasing special items, and are less likely to meet analysts’ expectations. In contrast, when leaders report good news, followers report higher discretionary accruals and are more likely to meet expectations (although we do not find evidence of a positive association between leaders’ good news and followers’ income‐decreasing special items). Overall, the results are consistent with managers of followers perceiving that earnings news of the leader will affect investors’ and others’ performance expectations for their firms.     

What moved share prices in the nineteenth‐century London stock market?†

Using a new weekly blue‐chip index, this article investigates the causes of stock price movements on the London market between 1823 and 1870. We find that economic fundamentals explain about 15 per cent of weekly and 34 per cent of monthly variation in share prices. Contemporary press reporting from the London Stock Exchange is used to ascertain what market participants thought was causing the largest movements on the market. The vast majority of large movements were attributed by the press to geopolitical, monetary, railway‐sector, and financial‐crisis news. Investigating the stock price changes on an independent list of events reaffirms these findings, suggesting that the most important specific events that moved markets were wars involving European powers.     

Discussion of “Were Information Intermediaries Sensitive to the Financial Statement‐Based Leading Indicators of Bank Distress Prior to the Financial Crisis?”

I discuss Desai, Rajgopal, and Yu ( 2016 ) with the goal of helping readers think carefully about which implications of the study are likely to generalize to future economic downturns and which are likely to be specific to the facts and circumstances of the recent financial crisis, given that the crisis was driven by the expectation and then the realization of a single market variable, national house price depreciation.     

Should China Join the New Trans‐Pacific Partnership?

After President Donald Trump's ill‐advised pullout from the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) and despite the absence of the US, the remaining 11 Asian and Pacific countries agreed on a deal, renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The accord took effect on 30 December 2018 and provides rigorous, up‐to‐date rules for Asia‐Pacific trade, but excludes the region's two biggest economies: the US and China. In this paper, we calculate that Chinese membership in the CPTPP would yield large economic and political benefits to China and other members. The CPTPP, in its current form, would generate global income gains estimated at US$147bn annually. If China were to join, these gains would quadruple to US$632bn, or a quarter more than in the original TPP with the US. But to join the CPTPP, China would have to undertake unprecedented reforms and manage complex political challenges.     

Do Firms Use Tax Reserves to Meet Analysts’ Forecasts? Evidence from the Pre‐ and Post‐FIN 48 Periods

We examine whether firms decrease tax reserves to meet analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts in the period prior to FIN 48, and whether that behavior changed following FIN 48. We use analysts’ forecasts of pretax and after‐tax income to impute premanaged earnings, or earnings before any tax manipulation. Pre‐FIN 48, we observe that firms reduce their tax reserves (i.e., increase income) when premanaged earnings are below analysts’ forecasts. Specifically, 78 percent of firm‐quarters that would have missed the analyst forecast if not for the tax reserve decrease, meet that target when the decrease is included. Furthermore, we find a significant positive association between the decrease in tax reserves and the deviation of premanaged earnings from analysts’ forecasts. In contrast, post‐FIN 48, we find no evidence that firms use changes in tax reserves to manage earnings to meet analysts’ forecasts. Thus, our results suggest that FIN 48 has, at least initially, curtailed firms’ use of tax reserves to manage earnings.     

回眸"十一五"寄语"十二五"

伴随着新年钟声的敲响,2011年向我们走来!新年伊始,万象更新;新的目标,新的征程!过去的五年,我国高新技术产业发展取得了辉煌的成就,国家高新区在应对全球金融危机中,化危为机,引领变局,科技创新奏出了时代的最强音——"十一五"期间,我国一批科技重点工程、重大项目取得了丰硕成果,为经济社会发展提供了有力支撑,成为我国创新型国家建设中的一道靓丽风景;"十一五"期间,国家高新区在创新与发展过程中取得了重要成就和重大突破,其引领、辐射与带动作用明显加强,业已成为区域经济发展的新引擎;"十一五"期间,我国企业自主创新能力不断提升,一大批拥有自主知识产权的高新技术企业在国际金融危机中经受住了严峻的考验,实现了新跨越;……特别是2010年,国家高新区实现了历史上第二次大扩容,有27家省级高新区成功进入"国家队",目前国家级高新区总数达到83+1家;这一年里,《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》出台,各高新区摩拳擦掌,积极备战,意欲抢占战略性新兴产业发展先机……回首过去,我们激情澎湃;展望未来,我们豪情满怀。2011年是我国"十二五"开局之年,同时也是国家高新区创建二十周年,站在这个新的节点上,我们希望以"寄语"的方式,以"祝辞"的名义,迎接这个特殊的年份。为此,本刊诚邀部分高新区"掌门人"与我们一道,总结"十一五"成功经验,前瞻"十二五"发展愿景,梳理和展望如何加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业,如何加快经济发展方式转变,为我国经济社会的发展作出新的、更大的贡献!     

Does Intra‐regional Trade Matter in Regional Stock Markets? New Evidence from the Asia‐Pacific Region

We provide new evidence on the relationship between bilateral trade and stock market returns across the Asia‐Pacific region. Using three country blocs in this region, including the Far Eastern bloc, the Chinese bloc and the Australian bloc, we examine whether trade linkages between countries affect their stock returns. Incorporating two distinct dynamic properties of regime shifting and cointegration in intra‐regional trade and stock market returns, we employ the newly suggested multivariable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model (STAR‐VECM). A series of estimations reveals evidence that bilateral trade significantly Granger‐causes stock returns in the Asia‐Pacific region, with effects that are asymmetric depending upon the stock market regime and the country pair. Among the three blocs, the Far Eastern bloc displays a more pronounced positive effect of bilateral trade growth on stock returns than do the other blocs.     

科技·模式·政府

建设节约型社会直接关系到我国现代化事业的成败，是我们面临的重大战略课题。中央的号召是破了题，接下来的文章要各条战线的有识之士来做。本刊这一期发表了一组探讨如何建设节约型社会的文章，作者包括中国工程院院长徐匡迪、国家发改委主任马凯和水利部部长汪恕诚等领导同志，还有相关领域的专家学者。他们对我国当前存在问题的剖析．以及相关的对策建议可以拓宽我们的思路，指导我们的实践，值得我们认真地阅读和思考。