The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

压缩房地产贷款背景下的信贷风险及防范对策分析

进入2008年以来,中央继续对房地产贷款进行压缩控制,而在房地产信贷业中存在着各种风险,甚至可能导致金融危机。本文从房地产信贷业发展的现状出发,分析目前房地产信贷业存在的风险,并提出规避风险、促进房地产信贷业健康发展的对策。     

The effect of institutional regime change within the new deal on industrial output and labor markets

Markets during the New Deal operated under a number of different institutional regimes, which were marked by executive orders, the passage of various pieces of legislation, and Supreme Court rulings on their constitutionality. Specifically, we break the New Deal period into the following six regimes: the Hundred Days, the President's Reemployment Agreement, the National Recovery Administration Codes of Fair Competition, the Schechter era, the National Labor Relations Act, and the Fair Labor Standards Act. Under these various regimes industrial markets were subject to different regulations relating to hourly wage rates, hours of work, the nature of competition, and unionization. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) regressions are run using a monthly panel of employment, weekly hours worked, wage rates, prices, and output for 11 major industries. We find that key policy and legal changes were associated with large and statistically significant movements in economic variables. Furthermore, changes in institutional regimes impacted different types of industries unevenly. For example, low-wage industries saw the largest increases in wages, and drops in output, after the mandated wage increases in 1933.     

The U.S. Postal Savings System and the collapse of building and loan associations during the Great Depression

Building and loan associations (B&Ls) financed over half of new houses constructed in the United States during the 1920s but they lost their predominance within the following decades as they were pushed to convert into Savings and Loans (S&Ls). This study examines whether the U.S. government-insured Postal Savings System attracted funds away from B&Ls precisely when they needed them the most in the Great Depression. Annual town- and county-level data from 1920 through 1935 for three states show that the sudden rise in local postal savings was associated with local downturns in B&Ls. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that postal savings significantly reduced the amount of money in B&Ls, yet B&Ls had no significant effect on postal savings banks. Alternatively, postal savings had no significant effect on commercial banks. The results suggest that this competitive dynamic prevented B&Ls from rebounding in the mid-1930s and helped contributed to Great Depression's local real estate lending decline.     

Relief During the Great Depression in Australia and America

I compare and contrast relief efforts by governments in response to the extraordinary unemployment of the Great Depression in the US and Australia. The effectiveness of relief spending in America at the local level is discussed using recent studies estimating the relationship between relief spending and various demographic measures. I develop a new panel data set for the Australian states from 1929 through 1939. Increased income in manufacturing and rural production were associated with lower infant mortality rates and death rates and higher fertility rates. In contrast to the US experience, however, higher per capita relief spending was associated with lower birth rates.     

房地产新政对地方财税的影响和对策分析——以江苏南通市为例

近年来,国家对房地产市场采取了一系列宏观调控措施,长三角地区更是作为被调控的重点地区,身处其中的江苏省南通市房地产市场也受到一定影响,进而造成地方财税的增幅出现下降态势,今后应通过稳定住房价格、鼓励房地产交易和严格税费征管等对策在促进地区房地产市场健康发展的同时使地方财税得到持续增长。     

科技金融支持中小企业进行新旧动能转换的路径研究

科技金融作为中小企业进行新旧动能转换过程中的重要融资渠道,需要进一步完善其服务路径,在保证政策性优势的基础上,增强市场化程度,为中小企业的新旧动能转换提供有针对性的金融工具。在梳理中小企业新旧动能转换中的问题,以及科技金融与中小企业新旧动能转换的关系的基础上,提出了一系列促进科技金融支持中小企业新旧动能转换的路径建议。