Bank capital regulation,loan contracts,and corporate investment

This paper studies the link between bank capital regulation, bank loan contracts and the allocation of corporate resources across firms’ different business lines. Credit risk is lower when firms write contracts that oblige them to invest mainly into projects with highly tangible assets. We argue that firms have an incentive to choose a contract with overly safe and thus inefficient investments when intermediation costs are increasing in banks’ capital-to-asset ratio. Imposing minimum capital adequacy for banks can eliminate this incentive by putting a lower bound on financing costs.     

World Bank lending and regulation

Does World Bank lending promote deregulation with stronger incentives and critical resources or slow the process by blunting the impact of crises and indirectly promoting state control? This paper analyzes empirical links between aid flows and regulatory burden. Econometric estimates based on panel data for 83 aid receiving countries over 5 year periods from 1970 to 2000 find that World Bank lending, while not specifically targeting high or low regulatory states, is linked to lower subsequent regulation. This link holds for multilateral donors more broadly while bilateral donor funds apparently fail to influence the level of regulation.     

Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations

We develop a macroeconomic model in which the balance sheet condition of financial institutions plays an important role in the determination of asset prices and economic activity. The financial intermediaries in our model are required to make investment commitments before a complete resolution of idiosyncratic funding risk that can be addressed only by costly refinancing, forcing them to behave in a risk-averse manner. The model shows that the balance sheet condition of intermediaries can drive asset values away from their fundamentals, causing aggregate investment and output to respond to shocks to intermediaries. We use this model to evaluate several public policies designed to address balance sheet problems at financial institutions. With regard to short-run policies, we find that capital injections conditioned upon voluntary recapitalization can be a more effective tool than asset purchases. With regard to long-run policies, we demonstrate that higher capital requirements can have sizable short-run effects on economic activity, and that a long transition period helps avoid undesirable side effects. Finally, we show that the marginal effects of policies can be larger during “crises” because of the nonlinear interactions between some financial frictions and policy actions.     

Bank herding and systemic risk

Bank herding behavior is often hypothesized to increase systemic risk, but the actual effect is unclear ex-ante from the theory and unknown ex-post from the data. We expand the literature on this topic in several dimensions – posing alternative hypotheses regarding the effects of herding in asset, liability, and off-balance sheet portfolios; developing a novel set of bank-specific, time-varying measures of herding in these portfolios; and empirically testing the relations between bank herding for all three portfolios and bank systemic risk contributions. We find nuanced empirical results that differ by portfolio, bank size class, and periods before versus after TARP.     

Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence

This study examines the relationship between CEO overconfidence and banking systemic risk. We employ the CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) approach to measure a bank's contribution to systemic risk and compute its MES (Marginal Expected Shortfall) and SRISK (Systemic Risk index) to measure the exposure to banking systemic risk. We use a stock options based measure for CEO overconfidence and explore how managerial overconfidence could be associated with banking systemic risk. Using data for U.S. banks from 1995–2014, we find evidence that banks with overconfident CEOs have a higher contribution and exposure to systemic risk than banks with non-overconfident CEOs. We also show that the impact of CEO overconfidence contributed significantly more to systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2008–2009.     

Contingent capital,capital structure and investment

We examine the interaction between investment and financing policies in a dynamic model for a firm with existing assets-in-place and a growth option, of which investment cost is financed with equity and contingent convertible bonds (CoCos). We attempt to clarify how CoCos impact on investment timing, capital structure and inefficiencies arising from debt overhang and asset substitution. We show that there is a conversion ratio (the fraction of equity allocated to CoCo holders upon conversion) to eliminate the inefficiencies. Our conclusions predict that debt leverage decreases with investment option payoff factor and the average appreciation rate of the cash flow. In contrast to traditional corporate finance theory saying that a firm's value decreases globally with business risk, our model indicates that it might first decrease and then increase with asset volatility.     

Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects

In evaluating capital budgeting decisions, quantitative approaches, such as traditional discounted cash flow modeling and real options valuations, are useful when there is a presumed probability distribution for the future forecasted outcomes or for when there are lower levels of uncertainty. As uncertainty increases and forecasting becomes difficult, the value of financial modeling techniques decreases. Borrowing from the strategic management literature, we argue that it may be useful to employ a qualitative approach to evaluate capital projects when faced with high levels of uncertainty. In order to illustrate our argument, we use a derivative of scenario planning and qualitative real options to evaluate non-quantifiable factors in a project for the National Ignition Facility.     

Corporate carbon risk,voluntary disclosure,and cost of capital: South African evidence

The study examines the interplay among corporate carbon risk, voluntary disclosure, and cost of capital within the context of South Africa, a “rising power” in the climate policy debate. We develop a system of simultaneous equations models and analyze data drawn from firms traded on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE), for the period 2010 to 2015, using the three‐stage least squares procedure. We find that voluntary carbon disclosure is associated with lower overall (and equity) cost of capital, after controlling for corporate carbon risk. We also find that firms with higher carbon risk tend to provide better quality carbon disclosure and signal the possibility of high carbon risk to avoid negative market reactions resulting from concealing carbon information. Although the capital market does not appear to incorporate individual firm's carbon risk exposure into the required cost of capital, we find that it generally requires higher returns for companies operating in carbon‐intensive sectors. These findings suggest that firms could exploit the virtues of voluntary carbon disclosure to reduce their overall (and equity) cost of capital. Our findings also imply that regulators and policymakers could point to the cost of capital reducing role of voluntary disclosure to lure firms into voluntarily providing superior quality carbon disclosures.     

Federal Home Loan Bank advances and bank risk

The Federal Home Loan Bank system (FHLB) has evolved into a major source of liquidity for the banking system with the demonstrated ability to borrow over a trillion dollars in world financial markets based on an implied U. S. Treasury guarantee. The FHLB loans the borrowed funds to commercial banks at reduced rates that are not adjusted for the risk of an individual bank. Moral hazard could cause member banks using FHLB loans to increase financial leverage and exposure to high risk assets. Conversely, the FHLB offers banks additional liquidity and specialized debt instruments that help them manage interest rate risk. We use dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation to test the relation between FHLB advances and bank risk. We find that if banks have relatively normal default probabilities, advances are not associated with increased bank risk but, instead, advances are related to decreased interest rate risk. However, when bank default probabilities are high, our evidence suggests advances and higher bank risk are related.     

Snatching capital campaign success from jaws of failure

This article details the steps of one medical center which turned an "almost" $3.1 million capital campaign into a success. Leadership provided the steps to victory for a development director who stepped into a job with the high prospects of failure. In two years, he made his goal.     

Bank lending rules for managing sovereign risk

A simple domestic lending rule is one that ensures that the loan rate exceeds the bank's cost of capital and the borrower's expected cashflows exceed the terminal value of the loan. Because a sovereign loan is not collateralized and lacks recourse, the domestic lending rule is not adequate for making sovereign lending decisions. Three modifications are suggested. First, the sovereign borrower's time preference for consumption needs to be considered. Second, the domestic borrower's decision to default voluntarily is made after observing the value of the collateral whereas the sovereign borrower's decision is made after observing earnings. In this paper, the sovereign borrower upgrades expectations in a Bayesian manner. Although no lending rule will completely prevent a default, the probability of default can be managed leading to a third modification.     

Bank mergers and components of risk: An evaluation

The present study empirically examines the contribution of the acquired banks in only the nonconglomerate types of mergers (i.e., banks with banks), where the bulk of the payment is in the form of equity to the acquiring bank and finds overwhelmingly statistically significant evidence that nonconglomerate types of mergers definitely reduce the total as well as the unsystematic risk while having no statistically significant effect on systematic risk. Therefore, it seems that diversification may be a possible motive for bank mergers.     

Industrial policy,social capital,human capital,and firm-level competitive advantage

Despite the popularity of governmental action devised to foster firm performance, the link between industrial policy and firm-specific human capital and social capital has received scant attention in the strategic management literature. In this paper, we build a dynamic optimization model which bridges concepts from industrial policy, social capital, human capital, and firm-level competitive advantage. We derive theoretical and policy implications from our competitiveness model, concluding that it increases in the opportunity cost of social capital reduce the production of human capital, so the optimal opportunity cost of social capital under feasible industrial policy should be set equal to zero. A government’s optimal industrial policy to help accumulate and churn human capital should reduce the opportunity cost of social capital to zero and reduce the probability of human capital leaving the community to zero. Thus, the model not only expands the potential determinants of competitive advantage in the context of governmental intervention, but also broadens the human capital theory and social capital theory in the creation of firm-specific human capital.

     

Human capital,social capital,and innovation: a multi-country study

The authors examine the effects of two forms of capital, i.e. human capital and social capital, on innovation at the country level. We use secondary data from the World Development Report on a country's overall human development to test for a relationship between human capital and innovation. We also use previous conceptualizations of social capital as comprising trust, associational activity, and norms of civic behaviour to test for relationships between these indicators of social capital and innovation using data from the World Values Survey. Unlike most previous studies that examined human and social capital within a given country, we develop and empirically test a theoretically grounded model that relates human and social capital to innovation at the societal level across 59 different countries, thus providing a more global view of the role of these two forms of capital in generating value. We find strong support for the positive relationship between human capital and innovation and partial support for the positive effect of trust and associational activity on innovation. However, contrary to our prediction, we find a negative relationship between norms of civic behaviour and one of our innovation measures.     

论基建审计风险规避存在的问题和对策

在审计工作中,对资本结构进行审计,对完善工程建设投资、节约建设资金以及加强内部调控都有着重要的意义。在资本结构审计中难免遭遇风险,要实现规避风险,就要了解其风险形成的原因,通过深入探讨这些存在的风险,来进一步降低基建审计的风险。城市基础设施建设是近年来城市建设中的热点,在社会主义市场经济体制和国家对基础项目建设不断完善的情况下,越来越多基础设施建设项目推出。在基建财政资金的分配上建立起基金的主要投资制度,再以其他资金来源为补充渠道。而基金投资产生的效益多少与审计结果是否准确有着密切联系。准确审计建设资金有利于科学有效控制工程造价,以充分利用资金,发挥资金的最大效能,以确保工程的质量,加强政府建设。但考虑到基础设施项目所具有的特点也给审计带来了比较多的问题,这些项目比较复杂,一般跨度的时间比较长,讲究专业能力,审计时难以全面顾及,力度也不够,审计难度比较大。文章就基础设施建设中出现的审计问题以及解决办法进行了探究。     

Bank failure prediction models: for the developing and developed countries

Banks make good use of capital and have characteristics different from profit businesses. Mismanagement causes collapse, which negatively affects investors, depositors, and employees, and disrupts economic order. Consequences may also affect other industries, triggering financial distress. Therefore, evaluating operational risks in banks and developing an early warning system are critical. This study evaluates data from 858 international banks (including banking holding companies) from 2005 to 2008 and applies a logistic model to analyze critical factors. Results show that equity-to-assets (ETA) and interest income – interest expense/income (NIN) had negative relationships with financial distress. Banks accept deposits and make loans. A higher proportion of NIN shows stable business volume, which could avert financial distress. Therefore, ETA and NIN were indicative of banking financial distress and best predicted trends in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and European Union (EU) banks.     

Implementing natural capital credit risk assessment in agricultural lending

Agriculture has critical impacts and dependencies on natural capital, and agricultural lenders are therefore exposed to natural capital credit risk through their loans to farmers. Currently, however, lenders lack any detailed guidance for assessing natural capital credit risk in agriculture and are challenged by the fact that the relevant material risks vary considerably by agricultural sector and geography. This paper develops a natural capital credit risk assessment framework based on a bottom‐up review of the material risks associated with natural capital impacts and dependencies for Australian beef production. It demonstrates that implementing natural capital credit risk assessment is feasible in agricultural lending, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative inputs. Implementation challenges include the complexity and interconnectedness of natural capital processes, data availability and cost, spatial data analytical capacity, and the need for transformational change, both within lending organisations and across the banking sector.     

Behavior of the firm under rate-of-return regulation with two capital inputs

Traditional electric utility companies face a trade-off between building generation facilities that utilize renewable energy (RE) and non-renewable energy (non-RE). The firm's input decision to build capacity for either source depends on several constraining factors, including input prices, policies that promote or discourage RE use, and the type of regulation faced by the firm. This paper models the utility company's decision between RE and non-RE capital inputs. From the model, we derive the result that rate-of-return (ROR) regulation decreases the investment in RE capital relative to the unregulated firm. These findings suggest restructuring electricity generation markets, which removes the ROR on generating assets, can increase the relative use of RE. A second result of the model shows that the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) increases the investment in capital that requires RE as a source of electricity, as expected. This paper contributes to the literature on the substitution between renewable and non-renewable resources, by examining the policies that affect the investment in the two types of technologies. The model can also be applied to other regulated utilities, such as water or natural gas companies, with outputs that are produced from different types of capital.     

Asset specificity,capital intensity and capital structure: An empirical test

Capital investment and capital financing decisions interact. To resolve current controversies in investment-leverage-growth relationships requires an integrated industrial organization/financial economics empirical model of profit margins, capital investment intensity, leverage and risk. Using cumulative future losses in discontinued operations to measure the asset specificity of the firm's investments, empiricai results support a complementary (positive) relationship between debt and investment, the debt financing of verifiable contemporaneous growth, equity financing of future growth and the debt financing of specific assets. This evidence rejects the transactions cost theory of capital structure in Fortune 500 firms.