Econometrics of first-price auctions with entry and binding reservation prices

This paper considers the structural analysis of first-price auctions with entry and binding reservation prices. The presence of entry decisions and binding reservation prices complicates the structural analysis. Building on the recent theoretical work on entry in auctions, this paper assumes that each potential bidder first decides whether or not to incur an entry cost and become an active bidder using a symmetric mixed strategy. Then each active bidder bids optimally following the increasing Nash–Bayesian equilibrium strategy. Using the observed bids and the number of actual bidders, we propose an MSM estimator to estimate the parameters in the distribution of private values and the distribution of the number of active bidders. Our approach can be used to validate the theoretical auction model, to test whether the reservation prices are binding, and to test the mixed-strategy of entry.     

Competitive bidding and proprietary information

We consider the sale of an object by sealed-bid auction, when one bidder has private information and the others have access only to public information. The equilibria of the bidding game are determined, and it is shown that at equilibrium the informed bidder's distribution of bids is the same as the distribution of the maximum of the others' bids. The expected profit of the informed bidder is generally positive, while the other bidders have zero expected profits. The equilibrium bid distributions and the bidders' expected profits are shown to vary continuously in the parameters of the bidding game.     

Can preemptive bidding in takeover auctions be socially optimal? Yes it can

This paper analyzes a model of preemptive jump bidding in private value takeover auctions with entry costs. It shows that when the second bidder owns a fraction of the target firm preemptive jump bidding leads to a higher social surplus, improves the expected profit of both bidders and reduces the expected final price. Such a toehold also leads to higher jump bids. The model implies that preemptive bidding hurts the minority shareholders but benefits the large shareholder of the target firm.     

Second-Price Auctions with Asymmetric Payoffs: An Experimental Investigation

A series of two-player, second-price common-value auctions are reported. In symmetric auctions, bidders suffer from a winner's curse. In asymmetric auctions in which one bidder has a private value advantage, the effect on bids and prices is proportional rather than explosive (the prediction of Nash equilibrium bidding theory). Although advantaged bidders are close to making best responses to disadvantaged bidders, the latter bid much more aggressively than in equilibrium, thereby earning negative average profits. Experienced bidders consistently bid closer to the Nash equilibrium than inexperienced bidders, although these adjustments towards equilibrium are small and at times uneven.     

Bids as a Vehicle of (Mis)Information: Collusion in English Auctions with Affiliated Values

In an English auction, a bidder’s strategy depends on the prices at which his competitors drop out, because these convey information on the value of the object on sale. A ring of colluding bidders can strategically manipulate the information transmitted through its members’ bids, in order to mislead other bidders into bidding less aggressively and thus allow a designated bidder to bid more aggressively. Collusion increases the probability that the ring wins the auction and reduces the price it pays. The presence of a ring harms other bidders (as well as the seller) and reduces efficiency.     

Toeholds,rejected offers,and bidder gains: Do rebuffed bidders put targets in play to profit from their toeholds?

Previous research shows that on average acquirers who buy shares in the pre-bid market gain because the average price of the acquisition is reduced. This study addresses a different question, one that relies on the withdrawal of the bidder rather than the successful completion of the acquisition. Do some firms with toeholds bid for the target to entice other bidders into the contest for the gain that they make when they sell their shares in the target to another bidder? This paper argues that holding a toehold makes hostile bidders more likely to withdraw from the contest if another bidder enters. The evidence is consistent with our hypothesis: hostile bidders that have a toehold, on average, earn significant abnormal returns of 4.98%, with a mean toehold of 13.81%. Those without a toehold, on average, earn a significantly lower 0.06% return.     

International acquisitions in the united states: Evidence from returns to foreign bidders

This paper provides evidence on the minimally explored topic of abnormal returns earned by stockholders of foreign bidders seeking to acquire a target firm in the USA. Four sources of influence on abnormal returns are identified: changes in net wealth of the bidder associated with changes in exchange rates; possible value-destroying managerial discretionary behavior by bidders with excess cash flows, as suggested by Jensen; comparative advantages for foreign bidders domiciled in relatively favorable tax jurisdictions; ownership status of the target, i.e. whether the target is an entire firm and whether it involves divested assets. The study includes 77 firms from 10 countries. The results show that stockholders of foreign bidders earn significant, negative abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of an acquisition in the USA. These abnormal returns become increasingly negative over the 15 days after the announcement of the acquisition, indicating that more information about the acquisition is revealed to investors subsequent to the initial announcement. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that relative exchange rates and cash positions explain variation in abnormal returns. A decline in the value of the dollar increases abnormal returns for the foreign bidder, thus supporting the net wealth hypothesis. The results also show that cash-rich foreign firms tend to enjoy higher abnormal returns when making acquisitions in the USA. The result provides support for the Froot and Stein cash-constrained hypothesis rather than for Jensen's free-cash-flow theory.     

Anticipation of Auction Fever: Entry Decision,Reserve Price and the Choice of Auction Design

This paper analyzes the entry decision of rational bidders who expect to experience auction fever in English auctions. It shows that nonparticipation decision reduces seller's expected profit and this effect may outweigh the positive effect of the auction fever. We analyze the choice between English and second‐price sealed‐bid auctions and the optimal reserve price in English auctions. We show that it might be optimal for the seller to set a reserve price below her own valuation of the object. Finally, we show that the order in which bidders place their bids matters and the first bidder always has an advantage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preference for bid time in hybrid auctioned IPOs: Evidence from China

Using comprehensive bidding data of 783 Chinese IPOs from June 2009 to November 2012, we investigate institutions’ preference for bid time in hybrid auctions. We find that (1) earlier bids are associated with higher pricing errors, which is more pronounced in IPOs with greater uncertainty; (2) the bid prices of earlier bids tend to be aggressively high; (3) earlier bids are associated with fewer bid shares and allocations; (4) bidders submitting earlier bids (hereafter, earlier bidders) have inferior profits; and (5) earlier bidders show persistence in bid time. Overall, the empirical results remain robust after controlling for unobserved bidder-underwriter relationships and indicate that earlier bidders tend to be less informed. Our findings reveal and highlight the effect of bid time on identifying informative bids in hybrid auctions.     

The effect of bid withdrawal in a multi-object auction

The Federal Communications Commission currently utilizes a simultaneous multi-round ascending bid auction to allocate Personal Communication Services licenses. In the auction, participants are allowed to withdraw standing bids at a penalty. The penalty is equal to the maximum of zero or the difference between the value of the withdrawn bid on a license and the highest bid after the withdrawal on that license. The withdrawal rule is designed to assist bidders wishing to assemble combinations of licenses who find themselves stranded with an assortment of licenses for which their bids sum to more than their value. This paper reports results of experiments that examine the effect of the withdrawal rule in environments in which losses can occur if packages of licenses must be assembled piecemeal. The experiments demonstrate that there is a tradeoff with using the rule: efficiency and revenue increase, but individual losses are larger. Furthermore, the increased efficiency does not outweigh the higher prices paid so that bidder surplus falls in the presence of the withdrawal rule. Received: 10 October 1997 / Accepted: 10 September 1998     

Keyword auctions with budget-constrained bidders

We study a keyword auction model where bidders have constrained budgets. In the absence of budget constraints, Edelman et al. (Am Econ Rev 97(1):242–259, 2007) and Varian (Int J Ind Organ 25(6):1163–1178, 2007) analyze “locally envy-free equilibrium” or “symmetric Nash equilibrium” bidding strategies in generalized second-price auctions. However, bidders often have to set their daily budgets when they participate in an auction; once a bidder’s payment reaches his budget, he drops out of the auction. This raises an important strategic issue that has been overlooked in the previous literature: Bidders may change their bids to inflict higher prices on their competitors because under generalized second-price, the per-click price paid by a bidder is the next highest bid. We provide budget thresholds under which equilibria analyzed in Edelman et al. (Am Econ Rev 97(1):242–259, 2007) and Varian (Int J Ind Organ 25(6):1163–1178, 2007) are sustained as “equilibria with budget constraints” in our setting. We then consider a simple environment with one position and two bidders and show that a search engine’s revenue with budget constraints may be larger than its revenue without budget constraints.     

Managerial Reaction to Takeover Bids: A Theory of Strategic Resistance

This paper develops a theory to explain the frequently observed resistance offered by the management of target firms to high-premium takeover bids. Contrary to the popular perception of managerial entrenchment at the expense of the shareholders' interests, such resistance may be strategically designed to increase shareholder wealth by threatening to initiate an informal auction process fur the target involving other potential bidders. Remarkably, this strategy can be effective even when it is common knowledge that the other bidders do not have a higher reservation price for the target. The analysis also offers insights into division of takeover gains and several other takeover-related issues.     

Who else is bidding? The Pareto optimality of disclosing bidder identities

This paper examines whether the seller of an object should reveal the identities of the participating bidders before bids become due. It is shown that when bidders experience identity dependent externalities and auction participation is exogenous, then for a large class of standard auction mechanisms, a policy of revelation serves to realize a higher surplus because it improves the accuracy of each bidder's estimate of her ex-post willingness-to-pay, and therefore changes the auction allocation in a more ex-post efficient manner. Furthermore, it is shown that the policy of revelation increases both the expected seller revenues as well as ex-ante expected bidder payoffs. Received: 4 February 2000 / Accepted: 15 November 2000 An earlier version of this paper had the title 'Disclosure of Bidder Identities'. I thank an anonymous referee and an Associate Editor for suggestions that improved the paper. I also acknowledge comments made by participants of the Auctions session during the North American Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society 2001 held in New Orleans. I remain solely responsible for any errors.     

浅谈价值工程与工程招投标

工程招投标的中心思想是通过工程招投标这一过程招标人要从投标人中选择最能够实现其价值目标的投标人,通过这一工程招投标的过程来实现招标人整体最优化的价值目标。本文主要是想通过采用引入价值工程方法来解决现有工程招投标的评标方法中存在的问题。采用价值工程的分析方法,通过功能评价、成本评价及价值评价系数的计算,综合地评价投标人的价值目标,为招标人择优选取,从而实现工程项目最优价值目标。     

Detection of collusion in government procurement auctions

Research on bidder collusion in procurement auctions is reasonably successful in unveiling the mechanisms of collusion among the bidders. But it is relatively weak in forwarding effective practical methods of collusion detection before the winner is declared, because they presuppose the knowledge of collusion in specific auctions. Past studies, however, point out the need for working with bid price-to-reserve price ratios rather than bid prices or winning bid prices, to be free from the problem of heteroscedasticity. They also draw an important inference that the set of collusive data are significantly different from the set of competitive data. On the basis of these basic facts, the current paper outlines a seven-step approach to collusion detection. The approach makes rudimentary statistical analysis of bid price-to-reserve price ratios for all the bidders. The analysis comprises tests of equality of means, medians and variance and tests of skewness, autocorrelation and normality of the ratios. It divides the ratios into two significantly different clusters. The cluster with the higher mean and variance values of the ratios corresponds to collusive bidding with the other cluster corresponding to competitive bidding. The paper proposes the construction of a process control chart to detect occurrence of collusion in an auction immediately after the price bids are opened. The approach is illustrated by applying it to data from procurement auctions for construction projects in a State Department of the Republic of India.     

Optimal auctions for asymmetrically budget constrained bidders

We consider an environment with a single divisible good and two bidders. The valuations of the bidders are private information but one bidder has a commonly known budget constraint. For this environment we derive the revenue maximizing subsidy free dominant strategy incentive compatible auction.      

Creating a winner’s curse via jump bids

We show that jump bids can be used by a bidder to create a winner’s curse and preserve an informational advantage that would otherwise disappear in the course of an open ascending auction. The effect of the winner’s curse is to create allocative distortions and reduce the seller’s expected revenue. Two novel features of equilibrium jump bids are derived. First, the jump bid may fail to hide completely the value of the common value component. Second, a bidder with a higher type might jump bid less frequently than a bidder with a lower type.     

谈投标决策的影响因素

随着我国工程项目招投标制的全面推行,投标报价是招标人选择中标人的主要标准,也是招标人和中标人签订承包合同的主要依据。工程项目招投标活动由于受多种因素的影响,投标往往错综复杂,本文论述了投标决策的影响因素,以利于提高中标率。     

工程招标应注意的十个问题及其对策

结合我国工程建设市场的实际,剖析工程招标应注意潜在投标人的资格预审,投标人的有效竞争,投标人的关联程度,评标前的源地评审,鉴别投标文件的可信度,内部腐败,识别以低于成本的价格投标的投标人,选择适合工程的采购方式,关键路径工程的招标和投标人的项目管理模式等十个问题,并提出相应的防范对策。