Comparing Fuzzy and Probabilistic Approaches to Preference Uncertainty in Non-Market Valuation

In seeking to value environmental amenities and public goods, individuals often have trouble trading off the (vague) good or amenity against a monetary measure. Valuation in these circumstances can best be described as fuzzy in terms of the amenity being valued, perceptions of property rights, and the numbers chosen to reflect values. In this paper, we apply fuzzy logic to contingent valuation, employing a fuzzy clustering approach for incorporating preference uncertainty obtained from a follow-up certainty confidence question. We develop a fuzzy random utility maximization (FRUM) framework where the perceived utility of each individual is fuzzy in the sense that an individual’s utility belongs to each cluster to some degree. The model is then applied to a Swedish survey that elicited residents’ willingness to pay for enhanced forest conservation and to a Canadian survey of agricultural landowners that elicited their willingness to accept compensation for a tree planting program. Both the WTP and WTA measures we obtain using the fuzzy approach are well below those obtained using standard probability methods. Based on goodness of fit measures and Monte Carlo experimentation, a case can be made for using a fuzzy preference approach for modeling preference uncertainty as opposed to incorporating respondent uncertainty within the random utility maximization framework.      

An analysis of the consumption risk and asset returns of Chinese residents

The research on the consumption-based asset pricing theory is limited to the developed capital markets. This paper seeks to extend the research to the Chinese developing capital market. It analyzes the dynamic relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption, stock market returns and interest rates with the CCAPM. According to the analyses of this paper, the IV regression results are mixed. However, the data can fit the model relatively well, and the empirical results fail to reject the model. Thus, the results show that a relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption growth rates and the asset returns does indeed exist, and that the consumption volatility risk could influence the asset returns.     

Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change

The Ricardian technique uses cross-sectional variation in the capitalized value of climate in land to infer the agricultural costs or benefits of dynamic climate change. While a practical approach for predicting the consequences of global warming with readily available data, it may yield biased results when land-use decisions depend on the climate attributes being valued and when land has unobserved attributes that differ with the use to which it is put. This paper illustrates the conditions under which such a bias will occur, describes an empirical model that corrects for it, and estimates that model with agricultural census data from Brazil. The approach, moreover, allows constraints on adjustment to be explicitly incorporated into the Ricardian framework, relaxing one of that technique’s most conspicuous assumptions. I would like to thank Patrick Bayer, Steven Berry, Robert Evenson, Michael Hanemann, Robert Mendelsohn, Bill Nordhaus, Kerry Smith, Karl Storchmann, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the University of California – Santa Barbara and the Research Triangle Institute for their useful insights and helpful comments. All remaining errors and omissions are my own. Fabiana Tito provided excellent research assistance, and Denisard Alves and Robert Evenson generously supplied the data.     

Stated Preferences, Real Behaviour and Anchoring: Some Empirical Evidence

We compare different contingent valuation question formats with each other and with observed behaviour for a non-monetary estimation task, the expected number of kilometers travelled by automobile. Open-ended questions, open-ended follow-up questions, dichotomous choice (DC) questions, and double-bound DC questions are included. The single and double-bound DC questions result in an estimated mean about twice as high as the actual value and the open-ended mean. The DC question overestimation seems to be due to an anchoring effect leading to yea-saying behaviour. Our results about the difference between DC questions and open-ended questions is consistent with the pattern observed in contingent valuations studies of the willingness to pay. Our results indicates that DC questions seem to be associated with a general overestimation problem that is present even for simple non-monetary estimation tasks.     

Do Colored Photographs Affect Willingness to Pay Responses for Endangered Species Conservation?

The NOAA panel suggested that use of photographs should be pre-tested to explore their effects on subjects (Arrow et al. 1993). For this paper, a modification to the test suggested by the NOAA Panel was made. We tested whether use of colored, as opposed to black and white (B & W), photographs influence respondents’ valuation of the environmental commodity in question. The context of the test is a CVM study valuing the benefits from protecting the national bird. This was performed using two drop-off surveys that were identical except for the color of the photographs incorporated in the survey instrument. The dichotomous choice logit equations were statistically different between the two treatments of the questionnaire, indicating the significant effect of colored photographs on the respondents’ WTP. The findings support the NOAA Panel recommendation of careful pre-testing and scrutiny of the photographs integrated in the questionnaire since ‘packaging’ of the environmental good (i.e., endangered species protection) matters in valuing benefits associated with it. Since colored photographs are found to be value-enhancing, to simply use B & W photos as an attempt to reduce cost associated with implementing the contingent valuation (CV) survey, especially when limited research money is involved, would result to lower the estimated value of the environmental good.     

Alternative evolutionary theories: A historical survey

Our overview has the objective of making our study relevant to bioeconomists. The need for the ‘alternatives’ to the Synthetic Theory of Evolution in social-economic studies was substantiated, for example, by Colombatto (Journal of Bioeconomics, 5, 1–25, 2003), who maintains that the natural-selection theory is ‘ill suited’ to describing evolutionary processes in economics. He proposed an alternative ‘non-Darwinian’ approach by equating the ‘non-Darwinian’ approach with a definite version of neo-Lamarckism. Yet, as we will show, there is a palette of alternative approaches within and beyond the neo-Lamarckism. We hope to give bioeconomists more choice in their theoretical modeling and constructing of analogies between biology and economics. It will also be shown that in the light of suggested definitions the concept of ‘universal Darwinism’ recently discussed in bioeconomics makes little sense as a generalizing category. In addition, in the concluding part of the paper we demonstrate that the majority of alternative approaches are far from being pigeonholed as archaic and once and for all wiped off the theoretical landscape. On the contrary, in recent years one can observe some revival of interest in the theoretical ‘heresies’.      

Valuation in the Lab

Experimental methods have proven useful to explore the power and limits to nonmarket valuation through stated preference methods. We now understand better how people learn about and react to the incentives, institutions, and information created by surveys. This paper briefly reviews topics in experimental valuation, including ex ante bias corrections, ex post bias calibration, and examining the circumstances that strengthen or weaken the economist’s presumption of rational valuation.     

Coping with Preference Anomalies in Cost–Benefit Analysis: A Market-Simulation Approach

This paper proposes a methodological strategy for cost–benefit analysis (CBA) which does not require the assumption that individuals’ preferences satisfy standard coherence conditions, and so renders CBA immune to the problems generated by preference anomalies. The proposal treats CBA as an exercise in market simulation, based on the measurement of surplus. Anomalies occur when surplus measurements vary according to the hypothetical payment mechanism used. In such cases, the mechanism that is the “closest market analogue” should be used. This approach is used to resolve problems associated with some familiar anomalies, including inconsistencies between “citizen” and “consumer” valuations, and endowment effects. JEL classifications: D61, D63, Q51     

Bargaining and Devolution in the Upper Guadiana Basin

Increasingly, central governments approach contentious natural resource allocation problems by devolving partial decision-making responsibility to local stakeholders. This paper conceptualizes devolution as a three-stage process and uses a simulation model calibrated to real-world conditions to analyze devolution in Spain’s Upper Guadiana Basin. The Spanish national government has proposed spending over a billion euros to reverse a 30 year decline in groundwater levels. We investigate how the government can most effectively allocate this money to improve water levels by utilizing its power to set the structure of a local negotiation process. Using a numerical Nash model of local bargaining, we find that if the national government creates appropriate incentives, local bargaining can produce water stabilization. The actual water levels that will emerge are highly dependent on the central government’s decisions about the budget available to local stakeholders and the default policy, which will be influenced by the relative value the government places on various financial and environmental outcomes. Our paper concludes by determining the relationship between these relative valuations and the government’s preferences over water levels.     

The irrelevant-menu affect on valuation

Three experiments are designed to test if the level of irrelevant prizes in the menu has a positive (assimilation) or negative (contrast) effect on the perceived valuation of target objects. Familiar field prizes and binary lotteries over such prizes are placed within “more-expensive” and “less-expensive” menus. Subjects fill-in a sequence of binary choice problems to reveal their preference between given cash and a designated prize from the menu. Between-subject comparisons reveal that the prize-level in the menu positively affects perceived valuations in spite of procedural attempts to rule out menu-dependent preferences and prohibit experimenter bias. The effect also shows within-subject in auction experiments: the price that subjects are willing to pay for given monetary lotteries significantly increases with the average payoff in the irrelevant-menu. The bias finally manifests even when subjects are led to choose the target lottery, independently, from the underlying menu.     

Potential Contributions of Political Science to Environmental Economics

While political science has much to offer, at least some of its contributions might be difficult to incorporate into economic models. Nevertheless, we argue that environmental economics might benefit from supplementing, combining, or sometimes even replacing the rational choice approach with other approaches commonly used in political science. We develop our argument by examining three core components of political science analysis: ideas, power, and institutions. For each component we review political science approaches and propositions with a view to determining “what’s in it” for environmental economics.     

Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation

This paper explores the possibility of basing economic appraisal on the measurement of experienced utility (utility as hedonic experience) rather than decision utility (utility as a representation of preference). Because of underestimation of the extent of hedonic adaptation to changed circumstances and because of the “focusing illusion” (exaggerating the importance of the current focus of one’s attention), individuals’ forecasts of experienced utility are subject to systematic error. Such errors induce preference anomalies which the experienced utility approach might circumvent. The “day reconstruction method” of measuring experienced utility is considered as a possible alternative to stated preference methods. JEL classifications: D63, Q51     

An Analytical Framework for Joint vs Separate Decisions by Couples in Choice Experiments: The Case of Coastal Water Quality in Tobago

This paper offers an analytical framework for analyzing joint and separate decisions by couples in the context of choice experiments for nonmarket valuation. It reports results from an attribute-based stated preference study in which members of couples are asked to conduct a choice-experiment first individually and then jointly. The choice context was the selection of which beach to visit while on vacation in Tobago. Available alternatives differed in attributes related to coastal water and beach quality such as level of coastal development and fish abundance. Tests of preference equality are reported and structured so as to identify the intra-couple decision-making patterns under taste heterogeneity with both finite and continuous mixed logit. Results from the latter suggest that women’s preferences are found to be predominant in the joint choice-experiment. Results suggest caution in using individual choice rather than joint couple choice when valuing quality changes impacting on couple activities, such as water and beach quality in Tobago, and call for further research on the topic.     

Foundations for contest success functions

In the literature, the outcome of contests is either interpreted as win probabilities or as shares of the prize. With this in mind, we examine two approaches to contest success functions (CSFs). In the first, we analyze the implications of contestants’ incomplete information concerning the ‘type’ of the contest administrator. While in the case of two contestants this approach can rationalize prominent CSFs, we show that it runs into difficulties when there are more agents. Our second approach interprets CSFs as sharing rules and establishes a connection to bargaining and claims problems which is independent of the number of contestants. Both approaches provide foundations for popular CSFs and guidelines for the definition of new ones.

“The strategic approach also seeks to combine axiomatic cooperative solutions and non-cooperative solutions. Roger Myerson recently named this task the ‘Nash program’.”(Rubinstein 1985, p. 1151)

     

Are There Income Effects on Global Willingness to Pay for Biodiversity Conservation?

This paper is concerned with the empirical relationship between biodiversity conservation values and income. We use random effects panel models to examine the effects of income, and then GDP per capita, on willingness to pay for habitat and biodiversity conservation. In a meta-analysis, 145 Willingness To Pay estimates for biodiversity conservation where existence value plays a major role were collected from 46 contingent valuation studies across six continents. Other effects included in the meta-analysis were the study year; habitat type; continent; scope as presented to respondents; whether WTP bids were for preventing a deterioration or gaining an improvement in conservation, whether a specific species or specific habitat was protected; whether the questionnaire used a dichotomous choice or an open-ended format; distribution format; and the choice of payment vehicle. GDP per capita seemed to perform as well as an explanatory variable as respondent’s mean stated income, indicating that it is wealth in society as a whole which determines variations in WTP. Even if large variation, our main conclusion is, that the demand for biodiversity conservation rises with a nation’s wealth, but the income elasticity of willingness to pay is less than one.     

Using Choice Experiments to Value the Environment

This paper we outline the “choice experiment” approach to environmental valuation. This approach has its roots in Lancaster's characteristics theory of value, in random utility theory and in experimental design. We show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets, such as forests and rivers, can be estimated from pair-wise choices, as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole. These choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function, and to minimise required sample size. Choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods, such as contingent valuation and travel cost-type models, although many design issues remain unresolved. Applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited. We illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent UK study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes. This study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay.     

Repeated Dichotomous Choice Formats for Elicitation of Willingness to Pay: Simultaneous Estimation and Anchoring Effect

Repeated dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are generated from responses to a succession of binary questions regarding alternative prices for an environmental good. In this paper we propose a simultaneous equation model that allows for endogeneity and error correlation across the responses at each stage of the bidding process. The model allows us to study the evolution of anchoring effects after the second dichotomous choice question. Estimation involves the Bayesian techniques of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation, and the application focuses on the preservation value of a natural area. The results for a data set involving up to four successive dichotomous choice questions show that restricted multiple-bounded models are rejected by the data with the general model. In addition, willingness to pay tends to stabilize after the second stage in the elicitation process for the general unrestricted model. When taking anchoring effects into consideration, it is revealed that individuals’ responses in the latter stages are influenced by the sequence of bid prices offered in earlier questions. Nevertheless, they do not have a significant effect on welfare estimates.      

Implementing QALYs in the Analysis of Air Pollution Regulations

In recent years, there has been growing interest in cost-effectiveness analysis for environmental regulations using quality-adjusted life years as the measure of effectiveness. This paper explores the implications of the QALY approach for measuring the impacts of air pollution regulations, with an example using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Heavy Duty Engine/Diesel Fuel regulations. The paper also examines the issues surrounding the potential use of QALY measures in cost-benefit analysis for air pollution regulations. Key findings are that, compared with a cost-benefit approach, the QALY framework gives more weight to reductions in incidence of chronic disease relative to reductions in premature mortality risk, especially when the mortality risk reductions occur in older populations. In addition, use of monetized QALYs in cost-benefit analysis is not recommended, due to fundamental differences in the theoretical grounding of the different measures. However, application of monetized QALYs based on age-specific willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions gives very similar results to typical cost-benefit analysis for mortality risk reductions, as opposed to using values for QALYs based on non-age specific WTP. The paper concludes that in cases where mortality provide the majority of a regulation’s impacts, QALY based cost-effectiveness analysis and WTP based cost-benefit analysis may not differ in their conclusions. However, in cases where morbidity or non-health outcomes are significant, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis may result in different evaulations of the efficiency of the regulation.     

Do price-tags influence consumers’ willingness to pay? On the external validity of using auctions for measuring value

This paper considers the external validity of the growing corpus of literature that reports the use of laboratory auctions to reveal consumers’ willingness to pay for consumer goods, when the concerned goods are sold in retail stores through posted price procedures. The quality of the parallel between the field and the lab crucially depends on whether being informed of the actual field price influences a consumer’s willingness to pay for a good or not. We show that the elasticity of the WTP revision according to the field price estimation error is significant, positive, and can be roughly approximate to one quarter of the error. We then discuss the normative implications of these results for future experiments aimed at eliciting private valuations through auctions.     

Ex-post implementation and preference aggregation via potentials

We introduce several notions of potentials for mechanism design problems with interdependent values, and relate them to implementation in ex-post equilibrium. Whereas ex-post implementation is closely linked to the ordinal concept of best-alternative potentials, the celebrated Vickrey–Clarke–Groves mechanism corresponds to the stronger notion of a cardinal potential: agents agree not only on the best alternative, but also on the quantitative differences between all alternatives. We characterize all valuations that allow for cardinal potentials, and use this characterization for: (1) Identifying valuations for which ex-post implementation is possible; (2) Identifying classes of valuations for which all ex-post implementable choice rules correspond to cardinal potentials. The latter allows us to extend to interdependent valuations a result for dominant strategy implementation in private values settings, due to Roberts (The Characterization of Implementable Choice Rules, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1979). We wish to thank an associate editor, two anonymous referees, Paul Milgrom and Burkhard Schipper for helpful comments and stimulating remarks.