The non‐linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non‐linear VAR model. The non‐linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross‐correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime‐dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long‐run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross redundancy and sensitivity in DEA models

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) measures the efficiency of each decision making unit (DMU) by maximizing the ratio of virtual output to virtual input with the constraint that the ratio does not exceed one for each DMU. In the case that one output variable has a linear dependence (conic dependence, to be precise) with the other output variables, it can be hypothesized that the addition or deletion of such an output variable would not change the efficiency estimates. This is also the case for input variables. However, in the case that a certain set of input and output variables is linearly dependent, the effect of such a dependency on DEA is not clear. In this paper, we call such a dependency a cross redundancy and examine the effect of a cross redundancy on DEA. We prove that the addition or deletion of a cross-redundant variable does not affect the efficiency estimates yielded by the CCR or BCC models. Furthermore, we present a sensitivity analysis to examine the effect of an imperfect cross redundancy on DEA by using accounting data obtained from United States exchange-listed companies.     

Separating the True Effect from Gaming in Incentive-Based Contracts in Health Care

This paper studies the effect of incentive regulation on health care. In the context of incentive-based health contracts, which might also introduce an incentive for the providers simply to report better treatment outcomes, evaluation of treatment using the information supplied by the providers (reported output) could be problematic. The systematic error on the output report is called providers' gaming behavior. This paper develops a general method for decomposing the effect of incentive-based contracts on performance into the true effect, which is the result of clinicians' improved effort induced by the contract, and the gaming effect, which is due to the change in the providers' reporting practice. The method follows the essence of linear structural relation (LISREL) models, and the true treatment output is modeled using a latent variable. Various output measures can be included in the structural evaluation model, but objective measure(s) (output measures not affected by providers' potential gaming) must be constructed based on available information to identify gaming through its correlation with the reported measures. The strengths of this method are that information from more than one output measure can be used, no monitoring system is required, and the construction of a gold-standard measure is not necessary. This method is applied to evaluate the impact of Maine's performance-based contracting on its public providers' substance-abuse services. Evidence of gaming is found in Maine's system, which remains robust in most of the sensitivity analyses. The methodology developed here can be used to evaluate the impact of a broad range of incentive-based contracts.     

Okun's Law Revisited*

In the light of modern theoretical studies, the negative relationship between output and unemployment may take a nonlinear form, in the sense that changes in output can cause asymmetric changes in the unemployment rate. A regime‐dependent specification of Okun's law, where the inverse relationship between cyclical unemployment and cyclical GDP is allowed to differ across recessions and expansions, is estimated for the US economy. Using both the Hodrick–Prescott filter and a bivariate structural time series model to isolate the cyclical component of the variables of interest, the nonlinear specification is highly significant when tested against the linear alternative independently of the method used for extracting the cycle of unemployment and GDP. The estimation results imply that the contemporaneous effect of growth on unemployment is asymmetric and significantly higher in recessions than in expansions, and shocks to unemployment tend to be more persistent in the expansionary regime.     

经济发展对城市基建和外商投资的创新门槛效应研究

创新是引领城市经济高质量发展的核心引擎之一,基于2003—2018年间中国271个地级及以上城市的面板数据,以经济发展程度为门槛变量着重考察基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新活动的非线性影响机制以及城市间的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新都具有经济发展的双门槛效应,当经济发展程度达到第一个门槛值时,才会显著促使城市创新产出的提升。当经济发展程度跨越第二个门槛值时,会进一步增加城市的创新产。城市间的创新活动具有明显的空间依赖性,对于经济发展程度差距较大的城市之间,基础设施建设显著增强创新溢出效应。     

Some unresolved issues in the location theory of the firm

This paper presents a generalized location theory of the firm in linear space. Location outcomes are examined by utilizing a general as well as a particular transport rate structure for output and inputs and using a general concave production as well as a homogeneous production function, of the firm. The effect of a change in demand on the location is also investigated.     

国内投入、中间进口与FDI垂直溢出——基于非竞争型投入产出表的实证研究

本文通过将FDI垂直溢出进行分解,并考虑投入产出效率的动态变化,检验了中国FDI溢出效应。结果表明:不存在线性水平溢出,但不排除非线性的可能性;不存在倒U形的技术溢出特征,外企通过购买国内投入而产生的后向溢出是最重要的技术溢出渠道,且对产出的影响成非线性,而外企通过购买中间进口而产生的后向溢出则可能存在门槛效应;外企通过提供中间进口而产生的前向溢出是否存在并不确定,由线性溢出回归可知外企通过提供国内投入而产生的前向溢出为负。     

Granger因果关系检验应用中的若干问题

分析了实践中应用Granger因果关系检验存在的一些问题,如信息遗漏,变量变换改变因果关系的性质、变量单整性对检验程序的影响以及检验模型的选择等,并提出在线性投影上有初步证据的因果概念。进而,应用单整变量之间Granger因果关系的一般检验程序对1978~2013年我国货币供给量与价格水平、产出之间的Granger因果性重新进行检验。     

Potron and the Perron–Frobenius Theorem

Maurice Potron is an important precursor of the study of linear models of production and, in particular, of input–output analysis. We show that, contrary to Abraham-Frois and Lendjel's interpretation which we consider as unfaithful to Potron's model, there is a clear connection between his theory and the Perron-Frobenius theorem.     

On the Relationship between Input–Output Coefficients and Hanoch's Linear Homogeneous Constant Differences of Elasticities of Substitution Production Function

Tilanus's ‘mixed’ input–output coefficients are generalized and it is shown that the generalized coefficients stand in a fixed proportion to each other if and only if the technology is described by Hanoch ‘s linear homogeneous constant differences of elasticities of substitution production function.     

Explicit representation of the two-dimensional section of a production possibility set

Technical and scale efficiencies of Data Envelope Analysis are associated with a two dimensionalsection (a convex set) representing the amounts by which the input and output vectors of a reference decision making unit, may be scaled and still lie in the production possibility set. We describe a simple algorithm, closely resembling the simplex algorithm of linear programming, to traverse the boundary of this set. Given the output of our algorithm, the scalar efficiency measures and return-to-scale characterization are trivially determined. Moreover, the set may be graphically displayed for any problem in any number of dimensions with only a minimum of additional computing effort.     

角速度传感器误差校正研究

某角速度传感器的输入与输出成近似线性关系,测量输出的电压值即可得到目标运动的角速度。为了提高测量的精度,通过对角速度传感器零位和灵敏度的误差进行校正,可得到更为精确的目标运动角速度。实验表明,该校正方法能有效提高角速度传感器的测量精度,有一定的实用性。     

General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets

Abstract.  This review examines the facilities provided by PcGets version 1.0, an OxMetrics module designed to implement automated general-to-specific model selection in the context of cross-section or dynamic time-series models that are linear in the parameters. A cross-section empirical example is used to illustrate the steps involved, the output produced and the options available for modellers.     

Estimating total factor productivity using parametric,nonstochastic cost frontiers

The standard approach to measuring total factor productivity can produce biased results if the data are drawn from a market that is not in long-run competititve equilibrium. This article presents a methodology for adjusting data on output and variable inputs to the values they would have if the market were in long-run competitive equilibrium, given the fixed inputs and input prices. The method uses nonstochastic, parametric translog cost frontiers and calculates equilibrium values for output and varible inputs using an iterative linear programming procedure. Data from seven industries for 1970–1979 are used to illustrate the methodology.The editor for this paper was William H. Greene.     

Controls,service type and perceived supplier performance in interfirm service exchanges

Control offers a critical differentiator between successful and failed interfirm service exchanges. The application of informal control to improve supplier performance has been well established, but the effect of formal control appears profoundly equivocal. This study proposes that the actual effect of formal control depends on its mode (output vs. behavior) and its relationship with the service type (mass vs. professional) and informal control. With survey data from 252 service buying organizations, the results indicate that output control interacts with service type to determine perceived supplier performance (PSP). Buyers’ reliance on high output control has a positive effect on PSP in mass service exchanges; this effect becomes negative in professional service exchanges. The effect of the interaction of behavior control and service type also depends on the presence of informal control. Buyers’ reliance on high behavior control exerts a more positive effect on PSP in professional service exchanges than in mass service exchanges, but only in the presence of informal control. These findings have key implications for both theory and practice.     

THE DECADES‐LONG DISPUTE OVER SCALE EFFECTS IN THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The so‐called “new growth theory” is characterized by the now Nobel Prize winning insight that ideas are a nonrival input to and output from endogenous investment in innovation. Nonrivalry implies increasing returns to scale, but this also unintentionally creates an empirically disputed scale effect that a growing population implies an ever‐increasing growth rate. Empirical evidence supports fully‐endogenous growth without scale effects, but theoretical issues sustain the decades‐long dispute over exactly how to negate the scale effect. This article surveys theoretical approaches to resolving the scale effect and shows how four generations of endogenous growth theory are defined by the maturing of modeling techniques for constraining increasing returns. The synthesis suggests that the dispute over scale effects is really a narrative about how the powerful application of increasing returns has followed a standard theoretical development pattern. This implies that a fourth generation is now emerging that negates the scale effect while retaining fully‐endogenous growth without relying on assumptions of linearity. Instead, the market response to excessive increasing returns to innovation constrains explosive growth by expanding the market, rather than by a linear assumption. This latest class of endogenous growth models may be the final chapter to resolving the long‐running dispute.     

Some Applications of Input–Output Analysis in a Gold Mine

In this paper, some applications of a mixed physical-financial input–output model for a large gold mine in China are described. This mixed input–output model is a basic part of the mine's decision-making system, called an interactive and hierarchical multi-objective feedback decision-making system of the gold mine's production and management. The model is used for the following: (1) to analyze quantitatively how the changes in the economic, technical and geological factors affect the mine's production and management; (2) to search for a series of bottleneck components in the mine when the capacities of some components of the mine change; (3) to optimize mine planning with the help of mathematical programming (linear programming, 0–1 programming) and computer simulation.     

Exploring the nexus between tourism,remittances and growth in Kenya

Recently there has been a surge in remittances inflow to Kenya while tourism receipts appears to be declining, albeit gradually. In light of these developments, the paper explores the plausible effects of tourism and remittances on per worker output. We use the annual data over 1978–2010 periods and the ARDL bounds approach within the augmented (Solow in Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956) framework. The regression results show that tourism has a marginal net negative effect in the short-run however positive effect in the long-run. Remittances, on the other hand, have a net positive effect in short-run and negative effect in the long-run. The key results from the Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality (Toda and Yamamoto in J Econom 66:225–250, 1995) results show a unidirectional causation from remittances to output per worker; and from output per worker to tourism. A unidirectional ‘combined effect’ of all variables causing output and remittances, respectively are evident as well. Conclusively, tourism is one of the leading drivers of Kenyan economy. To boost gains from tourism, the sector needs to align policies to the Kenya 2030 strategic framework with significant focus on expanding markets, boosting investment, and growth. Remittances market need to be further developed strategically with the view to improving Kenyan migrant led growth initiatives with plausible links to tourism development.     

A multiproduct Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost function

This paper introduces a flexible multiproduct cost function that permits zero values of one or more of the outputs and can impose restrictions quite easily, if not automatically satisfied, to ensure global concavity property. It satisfies linear homogeneity (in prices) property and is flexible in the output space. Thus the function is ideal for estimating, for example, economies of scope, cost complementarity, product-specific returns to scale, etc., without worrying about zero values of output(s) and extrapolations to points far from the point of approximation. As an empirical application, we use panel data (1978–1985) on 12 Finnish foundry plants to estimate technical progress, overall returns to scale, product-specific returns to scale and economies of scope.     

Targets and Resources: A Screening Perspective

To secure funding for a project, an agent (informed about the project's type) announces a target output. The principal provides more generous resources for high targets but makes compensation tied to performance relative to the projection. The incentive mechanism is geared towards screening project/agent types for resource disbursement at the ex‐ante stage and motivating appropriate efforts at the interim stage. These dual objectives are embedded in an optimal share contract solution: a pair of startup funds and output share between the principal and agent. The target mechanism's performance is then assessed with respect to implementation of the optimal share contract solution. The focus is on linear contracts for their applicability and practical relevance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.