The Manager’s Notepad: Working Memory,Exploration, and Performance

This study builds upon March and Simon’s proposition that individual‐level differences must be considered when explaining decision‐making performance. We extend their discussion on the importance of decision‐makers’ attention to explain heterogeneous patterns of exploration and exploitation within the same uncertain environment. We develop a model of decision‐making under uncertainty in which ‘working memory’ – i.e., the ability to hold multiple elements in mind to actively process them – explains the emergence of heterogeneity in exploration‐exploitation choice patterns. We validated the model in a laboratory study and two replications involving 171 individuals. Our findings show that differences in working memory allow us to identify individuals who are more likely to choose exploration over exploitation appropriately, and thus achieve higher performance. We discuss the implications for management theories, and re‐propose the work of March and Simon as a unifying framework that still can be used to generate and test managerially relevant hypotheses.     

Problems in the development and use of managerial financial models

In this paper the author identifies two related problems in financial modelling. First, the problem of implementing financial decision theory in practical decision situations and, second, the need to develop existing managerial financial models. A discussion of organization decision processes indicates possible reasons for the relative failure of management science and financial theory based models in practice and the predominance of accounting based models. This analysis of strategic decision processes suggests key design features for the implementation of financial models. Finally, research orientated models designed using these guidelines are seen as appropriate media for the transfer of knowledge between financial decision theory and financial practice. This is seen as providing a tentative basis for the development of managerial financial models. Throughout the paper the author uses examples from his own experience in model building in instalment credit, and leasing financial intermediaries, i.e. “Finance Houses”.     

Factors shaping the international knowledge connectivity of industrial clusters: a comparative study of two Latin American cases

Abstract

Recent research has emphasized that success of industrial clusters is not only driven by intra-cluster knowledge sharing (‘local buzz’) but also by externally sourced knowledge (‘global knowledge pipelines’). This article examines the factors that determine the channels through which clusters connect with global knowledge pipelines depending on the structure of the global value chain within which they are inserted, their knowledge base and their stage of evolution. Building on a comparative case study of the salmon farming cluster in Chile and the software cluster in Costa Rica, we adopt an evolutionary perspective based on historical analysis to better understand how the configuration of clusters’ international knowledge linkages shifts over time. Our findings suggest that (i) the more hierarchical the global value chain structure, the less room for knowledge co-creation between local and foreign actors; (ii) clusters relying on analytical knowledge bases opt for more formal and coordinated links with high involvement of public actors, whereas in clusters relying on synthetic knowledge bases, international knowledge interaction is based on less formal links mainly between business actors; and (iii) as clusters evolve the channels through which they connect with foreign knowledge increase in number and new ‘hybrid’ varieties develop.     

Predicting Retirement Upon Eligibility: An Embeddedness Perspective

Concern over the impact of baby‐boomers' retirement on needed skills and proprietary knowledge has stimulated an interest in identifying workplace factors associated with retirement upon eligibility. Drawing from embeddedness theory, the authors identify work‐based antecedents potentially underlying a related, but distinct, form of withdrawal—retirement upon eligibility. The authors generate and test hypotheses regarding the impact of fit‐, sacrifice‐, and links‐related antecedents using a prospective study design and a national probability sample of some 500 older individuals who, at the time of the initial interview, were within months of becoming—for the first time—eligible to receive such benefits. The findings indicate that, beyond the effects of person‐based antecedents (e.g., age, health, assets, expected retirement income), a combination of fit‐ (i.e., job challenge), sacrifice‐ (i.e., perceived organizational support), and links‐related factors (i.e., stability of close workplace peer relations) have a substantial influence on the decision to retire upon eligibility. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Which Resources Matter How and Where? A Meta‐Analysis on Firms’ Foreign Establishment Mode Choice

Firm resources play an important role in explaining the foreign establishment mode choice. However, a theoretical framework that simultaneously a) differentiates between heterogeneous types of resources, b) provides a rationale that consistently explains how firms adapt their establishment mode choice to their resource base, and c) reflects on contextual factors that intervene in the consistency of the direct relationships is largely missing. The present paper draws on the resource‐based view (RBV) to develop such a framework. More specifically, we study the effect of knowledge‐based and experience‐based resources on a firm's establishment mode choice and the moderating impact of cultural distance on these relationships. We validate our theoretical framework by a meta‐analysis (integrating 31 studies with 13,559 establishment mode choices) and find that knowledge‐based resources enhance a firm's propensity for greenfield investments, while experience‐based resources more likely lead to acquisitions. Further, cultural distance increases knowledge‐intensive firms’ preference for greenfield investments.     

Pay‐Level Satisfaction and Employee Outcomes: The Moderating Effect of Employee‐Involvement Climate

The present study examined employee‐involvement climate (i.e., information‐sharing and decision‐making climate) as a moderator of the relationship between pay‐level satisfaction and employee outcomes (i.e., job satisfaction, affective commitment, and turnover intention). Survey data were collected from 22,662 Belgian employees, representing 134 organizations. The hypotheses derived from distributive justice theory and from research on the meaning of pay received partial support. Multilevel analyses revealed that a decision‐making climate buffered the negative effects of low pay‐level satisfaction, and that an information‐sharing climate exacerbated the negative effects of low pay‐level satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications of this differential moderating effect are discussed.     

Testing the Structural Interpretation of the Price Puzzle with a Cost‐Channel Model*

We estimate a variety of small‐scale new‐Keynesian DSGE models with the cost channel to assess their ability to replicate the ‘price puzzle’, i.e. the inflationary impact of a monetary policy shock typically arising in vector autoregression (VAR) analysis. To correctly identify the monetary policy shock, we distinguish between a standard policy rate shifter and a shock to ‘trend inflation’, i.e. the time‐varying inflation target set by the Fed. Our estimated models predict a negative inflation reaction to a monetary policy tightening. We offer a discussion of the possible sources of mismatch between the VAR evidence and our own.     

The importance of client heterogeneity in predicting make-or-buy decisions

Scholars have begun to merge the transaction cost economics and capabilities perspectives to examine outsourcing decisions. Further integrating these perspectives with intermediation theory, we assert that a firm's decision to use an intermediary when entering a foreign market is largely a function of the intermediary's relative capabilities and relative transaction costs (i.e., relative advantage). We hypothesize that the intermediary's relative advantage is influenced by three significantly intertwined exchange conditions: client heterogeneity, intermediary risk, and firm learning. Using a sample of 929 new foreign market initiatives by a global consulting firm, our results support our theory.     

Foreign Equity Ownership and Information Asymmetry: Evidence from Japan

Using a large sample of Japanese firms, we investigate whether the level of foreign ownership in a firm is inversely related to information asymmetry between firm (managers) and market (outside investors). Since information asymmetry is not directly observable and, thus, is difficult to measure empirically, our analysis focuses on the link between foreign shareholding and a measurable consequence of information asymmetry; that is, the timing and magnitude of intertemporal return‐earnings associations. The empirical results support our hypothesis, and subsequent tests based on residual foreign ownership show that the relation between foreign ownership and information asymmetry is robust to the addition of various control variables such as market capitalization and cross‐corporate holdings. We also show that foreign investors tend to avoid stocks with high cross‐corporate holdings. Overall, our results suggest that foreign (institutional) investors are likely to be efficient processors of public information and are attracted to Japanese firms with low information asymmetry.     

Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets

We propose a general double tree structured AR‐GARCH model for the analysis of global equity index returns. The model extends previous approaches by incorporating (i) several multivariate thresholds in conditional means and volatilities of index returns and (ii) a richer specification for the impact of lagged foreign (US) index returns in each threshold. We evaluate the out‐of‐sample forecasting power of our model for eight major equity indices in comparison to some existing volatility models in the literature. We find strong evidence for more than one multivariate threshold (more than two regimes) in conditional means and variances of global equity index returns. Such multivariate thresholds are affected by foreign (US) lagged index returns and yield a higher out‐of‐sample predictive power for our tree structured model setting. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organizationally sensible versus legal‐centric approaches to employment decisions

Many managers and human resource professionals view the law increasingly as an overly restrictive influence on their ability to manage employees effectively. This article is intended to alert HR professionals to the risk that they are unnecessarily contributing to the impact that legal considerations have on the management of employees as a result of “legal‐centric decision making.” We introduce the construct of legal‐ centric decision making, present a model of the primary factors contributing to legal‐centric decision making, provide support for the model from diverse literatures (e.g., behavioral decision making, management, and law), and identify several keys to avoiding legal‐ centric decision making. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

CEO compensation and the seasoned equity offering decision

Empirical research on seasoned equity offerings indicates that the decision to make an SEO typically engenders a decline in firm value, as investors interpret this decision as a signal of poor financial health or that the stock is overpriced. Here, we add to the literature by analyzing the short‐term market reaction to SEO announcements and the chief executive officer's link to firm performance (i.e. the proportion of CEO equity‐based compensation). Results support the hypothesis that investors are more likely to view the announcement of an SEO as a last resort source of capital when the proportion of CEO equity‐based compensation is high. In such cases of high equity‐based compensation, our findings indicate that the SEO announcement provides an incremental signal of financial distress above that provided by financial statements. We also find this relationship (last resort signal) to be stronger when large information asymmetries exist between management and investors. Thus, managers should consider the ramifications of executive compensation structure when considering whether to make an SEO. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐to‐market,window of opportunity,and salvageability of a new product development

The time‐to‐market in the presence of a window of opportunity is analyzed using ;a probabilistic model, i.e. a model where the completion time of new product development is a random variable characterized by a gamma distribution. Two cases are considered: the first, a case where the discounted return‐on‐investment exceeds the return expected from a conservative investment—e.g. investment in bonds—termed ‘the profitable case’; and the second, a case where the discounted return‐on‐investment just balances the cost of new product development, termed ‘the salvageable case’. The model constructed is focused on the financial aspects of new product development. It allows a decision‐maker to monitor, as well as terminate, a project based on its expected value (at any time prior to completion) by computing the mean time‐to‐market that provides profit, investment salvage, or loss. The mean time‐to‐market computed by the model may be compared with that estimated by the technology development team for decision‐making purposes. Finally, in the presence of a window of opportunity and for the specific cases analyzed, we recommend to always keep the expenditure rate lower than the expected return rate. This will provide the decision‐maker a salvageable exit opportunity if project termination is decided. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘I Like How You Think’: Similarity as an Interaction Bias in the Investor–Entrepreneur Dyad

Investigating the factors that influence venture capital decision‐making has a long tradition in the management and entrepreneurship literatures. However, few studies have considered the factors that might bias an investment decision in a way that is idiosyncratic to a given investor–entrepreneur dyad. We do so in this study. Specifically, we build from the literature on the ‘similarity effect’ to investigate the extent to which decision‐making process similarity (shared between the investor and the entrepreneur) might bias or otherwise impact the investor's evaluation of a new venture investment opportunity. Our findings suggest venture capitalists evaluate more favourably opportunities represented by entrepreneurs who ‘think’ in ways similar to their own. Moreover, in the presence of decision‐making process similarity, the impacts of other factors that inform the investment decision actually change in counter‐intuitive ways.     

Online social network fundraising: Threats and potentialities

There has been a growth in online fundraising from crowdfunding apps, like GoFundMe, that propagate fundraising appeals on social networking sites. In the online space, these crowdfunding apps pose a potential threat to the traditional intermediation role of charities. The disintermediation threat is that donors choose crowdfunding intermediaries instead of charities to channel their giving. In this article, we discuss what makes crowdsourced fundraising effective and how charities can adapt to this new dynamic for more effective online fundraising emphasizing two key success factors: brand strength/reputation and managing the donor experience. In addition, we explain the advantages and disadvantages of social media fundraising and giving and propose ways charities can leverage their good reputations and public trust to stimulate reintermediation. Finally, we propose a landscape for future research based on model that emphases the fundraising campaign's ability to stimulate viral sharing within and between online social networks.     

Training and organisational performance: A meta‐analysis of temporal,institutional and organisational context moderators

Drawing on systems theory, we conducted a moderated meta‐analysis of the training and organisational performance relationship using 119 primary studies. We examined the moderating effects of quality versus quantity of training, time, institutional and organisational context factors in the relationship between training and organisational performance. Our findings reveal that training is positively and directly related to organisational performance with no statistically significant difference between measures of training quality and quantity. We found that the relationship was stronger over time and that country performance orientation and country labour cost moderate the training and organisational performance relationship. We found no evidence for the moderating effects of the three organisational context moderators we examined (i.e. industry sector, organisational size and technology intensity). Finally, our results reveal that training type (i.e. general or firm‐specific) does not moderate the training and organisational performance relationship.     

Mind the channel! An affordance perspective on how digital voice channels encourage or discourage employee voice

We apply an affordance lens on qualitative data from three case organisations using a digital voice channel providing employees with the opportunity to speak up via answering periodic mini‐surveys and making comments in an anonymous mini‐forum. We find that imbrications of material and social agencies (i.e., the voice channel's features and managerial reactions to voice) in the respective organisational contexts culminate in employees perceiving the channel as either affording or constraining voice, leading to perceived voice outcomes that eventually encourage or discourage them to speak up. Whether voice is encouraged or discouraged partly results from the mere interaction between employees and the digital voice channel independent of managerial reactions. Our findings thus challenge the emphasis on managerial behaviour and reactions to voice in explaining voice behaviour and outcomes in extant literature.     

Multinational Firm Knowledge,Use of Expatriates,and Foreign Subsidiary Performance

The impact of knowledge transfer on foreign subsidiary performance has been a major focus of research on knowledge management in multinational enterprises (MNEs). By integrating the knowledge‐based view and the expatriation literature, this study examines the relationship between a multinational firm's knowledge (i.e. marketing and technological knowledge), its use of expatriates, and the performance of its foreign subsidiaries. We conceptualize that expatriates play a contingent role in facilitating the transfer and redeployment of a parent firm's knowledge to its subsidiary, depending on the location specificity of the organizational knowledge being transferred and the time of transfer. Our analysis of 1660 foreign subsidiaries of Japanese firms over a 15‐year period indicates that the number of expatriates relative to the total number of subsidiary employees (1) strengthened the effect of a parent firm's technological knowledge (with low location specificity) on subsidiary performance in the short term, but (2) weakened the impact of the parent firm's marketing knowledge (with high location specificity) on subsidiary performance in the long term. We also found that the expatriates' influence on knowledge transfer eventually disappeared. The implications for knowledge transfer research and the expatriate management literature are discussed.     

Relocation of second degree: Moving towards a new place or returning home?

We study the “Relocations of Second Degree” (RSDs), i.e., the location decisions that modify the country of destination of a previous offshoring investment. Specifically, we distinguish between two types of RSDs, i.e., “Relocation to the Home Country (RHC)”, also known as back-reshoring, and “Relocation to a Third Country (RTC)”, i.e., the choice to move to a second host country.Specifically, we explore how the location advantages underlying the previous offshoring decision affect the probability to undertake an RHC, rather than an RTC. Location advantages reflect the favourable conditions that a foreign country offers with respect to the home one, in terms of market-seeking, asset-seeking and efficiency-seeking (i.e., cost-saving and productivity-enhancing) opportunities. Using data from the European Restructuring Monitor, we focus on the RSDs regarding manufacturing activities, implemented across European countries between 2002 and 2015. We find that, on the one hand, when a previous offshoring investment is driven by market-seeking location advantage, firms undertaking the RSD are more likely to opt for an RHC, except during the economic crisis where market-seeking European firms seem to prefer RTCs. On the other hand, RTC is a preferred choice when the location advantage is of efficiency-seeking type. In addition to offering a broader characterization of RSDs, our study provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the offshoring and relocation decisions. Managers should be aware of this connection when designing their manufacturing internationalization strategies.     

Network Intermediaries in International Trade

Motivated by evidence on the importance of incomplete information and networks in international trade, we investigate the supply of network intermediation. We build a general-equilibrium model in which agents with networks of foreign contacts either can use their networks themselves in support of production or can make their networks available for others to use and thereby can become network intermediaries. We use this model for comparative statics and welfare analysis. One welfare conclusion is that intermediaries may have inadequate incentives to maintain or to expand their networks, suggesting a rationale for the policies followed by some countries to encourage large-scale trading companies.