MINIMUM WAGE HIKES AND THE WAGE GROWTH OF LOW‐WAGE WORKERS

This paper presents difference‐in‐differences estimates of the impact of the British minimum wage on the wage growth of low‐wage employees. Estimates of the probability of low‐wage employees receiving positive wage growth have been significantly increased by the minimum wage upratings or hikes. However, whether the actual wage growth of these workers has been significantly raised or not depends crucially on the magnitude of the minimum wage hike considered. Findings are consistent with employers complying with the legally binding minimum wage but holding down or offsetting the wage growth that they might have awarded in periods of relatively low minimum wage hikes.     

THE MINIMUM WAGE, WAGE SUBSIDIES, AND POVERTY

In an attempt to augment the lowest wages, the United States and several other countries utilize legal minimum wages. However, the minimum wage has potentially adverse employment effects. The analysis here suggests that an alternative policy that combines a minimum wage and a wage subsidy is superior to either by itself. Such a combination can assist the low wage worker, avoid disemployment effects, and maximize market efficiency.     

NOMINAL WAGE INDEXATION,QUASI‐EQUILIBRIA AND REAL WAGE DYNAMICS

In contrast to the traditional static approach to indexation, this paper analyses the dynamic consequences for real wages of the mechanism that links nominal wages to inflation. Revisiting a contribution by Dehez and Fitoussi on macroeconomic fluctuations , I analyse a monetary overlapping generations small open economy in which full indexation is interpreted as the occurrence of a dynamic ‘quasi‐equilibrium’. In the suggested framework, the nominal wage is linked to the inflation rate by a specific indexation formula whose shape relies on unions' bargaining positions. Assuming a constant peg for the real interest rate and the superneutrality of money, I show that the economy has a unique long‐run quasi‐equilibrium allocation whose stability depends only on the behaviour of the monetary authority. Moreover, I show how the operating of a ‘wage‐aspiration effect’ might lead to the persistence of involuntary unemployment.     

THE OPTIMAL MINIMUM WAGE FOR POVERTY MINIMIZATION

This paper characterizes the poverty minimizing minimum wage, and shows how it varies as productivity, inequality and market competitiveness change. We show that the optimal minimum wage is equal to the competitive wage only in special cases. In general, the former is higher than the latter. Thus, poverty minimization does not coincide with employment maximization. We also show that the optimal minimum wage always rises with productivity and, under certain conditions, falls with competitiveness and inequality. Furthermore, the higher the competitiveness and inequality, the more the optimal wage rises with productivity.     

THE DYNAMICS OF LABOUR'S INCOME SHARES AND THE WAGE CURVE–PHILLIPS CURVE CONTROVERSY

Based on a re-parameterised Blanchflower–Oswald model this paper uses long macro-data from the OECD countries to discriminate between the Philips curve and the wage curve and examines whether there are any differences in wage dynamics between Europe and the United States. The evidence gives support for the Phillips curve and shows that wage dynamics are no different between the United States and Europe.     

THE SHORT‐RUN EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF RECENT MINIMUM WAGE CHANGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

This paper presents early evidence on the employment effects of state minimum wage increases enacted between January 2013 and January 2015. As of 2015, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases (defined as those exceeding $1) reduced employment among low‐skilled population groups by just over 1 percentage point. Smaller minimum wage increases, as well as increases linked to inflation indexation provisions, appear to have had much smaller (and possibly positive) effects on employment over our sample period. The estimates thus raise the potential importance of nonlinearities in the minimum wage's effects, which are consistent with standard models of the labor market. (JEL H11, J08, J23)     

A NOTE ON THE NONLINEAR EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

We use a labor search model with worker experience to assess the effects of minimum wage increases. Minimum wages can have nonlinear effects on unemployment as higher minimum wages become binding for larger portions of the underlying productivity distribution. The model is used to assess the increases proposed by the Obama Administration from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 and then to $10.10 per hour. We find that minimum wage increases have large effects on youth unemployment. These large effects cast doubt on using past empirical estimates of the effects of minimum wages that do not account for potential nonlinearities. (JEL E24, J08, J24, J64)     

中国的最低工资对就业的影响

最低工资制度是政府通过法律手段保障低工资工人的收入、维护劳动者最基本的权益而对劳动力市场进行人为干预的一种政策选择,它对就业的影响引起了人们的广泛争议。本文利用我国2000-2010年30个省市自治区的面板数据,以最低工资制度最为直接的影响人群--其他人员的就业作为研究对象,采用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）方法考察了该制度对我国就业的影响。实证研究的结果表明,我国的最低工资水平相对于社会平均工资每提高10%,其他人员的就业在社会总就业中的比重下降约为23%,敏感性分析和动态回归把弹性范围扩大到-009~-029,这与国际上早期的时间序列研究的结论基本一致,这表明我国的最低工资制度对我国其他人员的就业产生了负面影响。     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

ENTRANTS' REPUTATION AND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

This article analyzes entry–exit decisions in a market where reputation determines the price that firms may charge, within a rational‐expectation model of competition in a nonatomic market under heterogeneous reputations. The analysis focuses on the class of name‐switching reputational equilibria, in which a firm discards its name if and only if its reputation falls below the entrants' reputation. The main technical result is the existence of a unique steady‐state equilibrium within this class, in which the entrants' reputation is endogenous. The resulting industry dynamics is largely on agreement with the findings in the empirical literature.     

最低工资标准、人力资本扩张与企业成本加成

本文以人力资本扩张为切入点,构建了最低工资、人力资本扩张影响企业成本加成的理论框架,并使用中国1998-2013年284个地级市的工业企业数据进行了经验研究。结论显示:最低工资上调会显著抑制企业成本加成的提升,削弱了企业的市场势力,但该抑制效应在人力资本扩张的背景下得以缓解。同时本文通过进一步分组回归发现,最低工资标准与人力资本扩张对企业成本加成具有明显的异质性影响。因此,适度、稳定调整最低工资标准及推动人力资本质量的整体提升有助于保持企业成本加成能力及其动态竞争力。     

THE WAGE IMPACT OF TEACHERS UNIONS: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature examining the impact of teachers unions on education is very large and diverse. We meta‐analyze the literature on the wage impacts of teachers unions to try to draw out general findings, the importance of empirical model specification, and samples. A key finding of this study is that the average wage impact estimated by the included papers is modest, around 2%–4.5%. Our findings also suggest that the quality of an empirical strategy significantly affects the size of the estimated impact. We find that teachers union wage impacts have varied over time. The largest impacts appear to be following the rapid expansion of teacher unionism in the 1970s. Finally, we gain new insight into the goals of teachers unions by using the increased statistical power of meta‐analytic techniques to show that unions increase the wages of new teachers and not just senior teachers. (JEL J51, I21, I30)     

最低工资标准、人力资本扩张与企业成本加成*

本文以人力资本扩张为切入点，构建了最低工资、人力资本扩张影响企业成本加成的理论框架，并使用中国1998-2013年284个地级市的工业企业数据进行了经验研究。结论显示：最低工资上调会显著抑制企业成本加成的提升，削弱了企业的市场势力，但该抑制效应在人力资本扩张的背景下得以缓解。同时本文通过进一步分组回归发现，最低工资标准与人力资本扩张对企业成本加成具有明显的异质性影响。因此，适度、稳定调整最低工资标准及推动人力资本质量的整体提升有助于保持企业成本加成能力及其动态竞争力。     

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE MINIMUM WAGE: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FROM CANADIAN PROVINCES

Recent U.S. studies offer conflicting evidence on minimum wage impacts. This paper studies the effects of 185 amendments to minimum wage on employment rates using panel data across Canadian provinces from 1981 to 2011. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply a 10% increase in minimum wage is associated with a 1%–4% reduction to employment rates for both male and female teens. We also find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with lower employment of prime‐aged immigrants. Our results are robust to a wide array of IV and the use of controls for spatial heterogeneity. (JEL J30, J71, J23)     

ESTABLISHMENT DYNAMICS,VACANCIES, AND UNEMPLOYMENT: A NEOCLASSICAL APPROACH

This article introduces and analyzes a Walrasian model of worker flows, job flows, vacancies, and unemployment. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, the article finds that all variables comove with output quite well but that they fluctuate too little. However, the failure is not as bad as in “Shimer's puzzle.” Interestingly, the article also finds that introducing establishment dynamics into the model, while realistic, is irrelevant for understanding unemployment and vacancy fluctuations: The business cycles of the model with establishment dynamics are virtually the same as those of a version with a representative firm.     

MANAGING THE SUPPLY OF SHORT‐LIFE PRODUCTS. A DURATION ANALYSIS APPROACH USING THE UK FILM INDUSTRY

Movies are uncertain products. Nobody knows much about them prior to their screening and their attempt to survive in the risky motion picture market week by week. This paper studies short‐life products using the example of the UK film industry, including high and low‐budget films. Using a clog‐log methodology and a sample of 552 films, the empirical results highlight the importance of the distributor's strategy and word‐of‐mouth for success in experience goods industries. Two strategies, cross‐subsidisation and opportunity cost, not previously addressed are considered. The results show these effects to be especially significant for low budget movies.