R&D and Output in a Regulated Vertically Integrated Oligopoly

This paper examines input price regulation's effects on research and development (R&D) and output in a vertically integrated industry. A single integrated firm produces the crucial input and the output. The non-integrated rival does not produce the input but buys it from the integrated firm at a regulated price. Only the integrated firm engages in cost-reducing R&D. Results show that changes in input price have a negative effect on the integrated firm's output and R&D. The non-integrated firm's output response to changes in input price depends upon the slope of the demand curve. The welfare analysis examines the social desirability of such regulation.     

Bilateral Oligopoly,Private Information,and Pollution Permit Markets

We analyze the effects of strategic behavior and private information in pollution permit markets in which all firms have market power. The market is characterized by supply-function equilibria. Firms submit net supplies for permits and a market maker determines the market-clearing price. Net supplies depend on abatement cost functions, which in turn depend on private information parameters. We calculate the increase in aggregate abatement costs due to strategic behavior and private information and show that private information attenuates the effects of strategic behavior.      

Collusion and Information Exchange

Antitrust authorities view that exchange of individual firms’ sales data is more anti‐competitive than that of aggregate sales data. In this paper, I survey antitrust implications of such inter‐firm information exchange. I argue that both types of information exchange are anti‐competitive under some circumstances. More precisely, I compare profits when each type of information exchange is allowed to that when firms can only observe their own sales (Stigler’s secret price‐cutting model), and the former is bigger than the latter. I also provide a general method to bound the equilibrium profits without such information exchange.     

流动性约束与货币政策的资产价格效应

本文在新凯恩斯主义分析框架下,基于一个动态随机模型探讨了代理人消费流动性约束下的货币政策的资产价格效应,得到下列结论：资产价格波动通过财富效应影响代理人的消费。以利率为操作目标的最优货币政策应对股价、房价等资产价格波动做出反应,而其反应强度依赖于受流动性约束的代理人所占的比重。由于资产价格波动导致了流动性约束的时变性,最优利率规则对股价、房价等资产价格波动的最优权重也具有时变性。本文的实证分析表明,我国央行对房价和股价波动的利率调整具有时变性,以及此次金融危机爆发期间显现的这种时变性特征,与本文理论分析结果相吻合。     

粮食产量与粮价波动关系的再研究

运用计量经济学的方法对粮食产量和粮食价格波动进行了实证研究。结果表明,粮食产量和粮食价格之间存在相互影响的关系,彼此之间对对方的变化都存在着滞后效应,而且价格变化对产量变化的影响要大于产量变化对价格变化的影响。从维护国家粮食安全的角度出发,为保证粮食持续稳定增长和价格的相对稳定,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Export Price Discrimination in Europe and Exchange Rates

The paper studies pricing-to-market behavior on a wide range of disaggregated European Union exports to OECD countries. The sample allows better identification of products for which such behavior is pervasive. The results suggest that the degree of markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes is similar across destination markets. The evidence of pricing-to-market across source countries ranges from 40% (Netherlands) to 63% (Germany) of the products in the sample, except for the United Kingdom, where there is remarkably little evidence of it. However, formal comparisons across source countries by product do not usually reveal differences in behavior.     

Copper Price Behaviour and the London Metal Exchange

This paper examines how variables which describe the expectations of consumers can contribute to the explanation of observed expenditure patterns and how measured series of such expectations can be used in a forecasting model to improve the prediction of short-term consumer expenditures. The expectations data are based on the British Market Research Bureau's Financial Expectations Survey and the respective series that are derived are tested in correlation and regression exercises against quarterly aggregate consumer expenditure series. The exercise finds that the information contained in these financial expectations has significant value for predicting expenditures in the period 1 to 12 months ahead. The forecasting models based on the expectational data generally perform as well as those based on conventional economic variables and the leading indicator properties of the expectations, combined with their rapid availability, enhance their value as a potential source of forecasting information.     

信息选择与经验价格

本从信息经济学的角度,分析了食盐市场,高档汽车市场,彩电市场的价格制定与形成,指出价格围绕价值的波动是该市场的主要参与朴素博弈的结果。价格博弈的实质是信息博弈,谁拥有的私人信息多,谁就能在博弈中取得主动,根据上述分析,提出了“经验价格”,“经验成本”的系列新概念,认为市场价格之和或商品价值与买经验价格之关构成的。经验价格源于买或卖的私人信息,是对其为搜寻信息所付出成本的奖励效用。经验成本则是当事人以当时经验认为的付出。     

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Law of One Price

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the Law of One Price. Using the prices of very disaggregated, homogeneous products in a very open economy, Chile, where no institutions exist for hedging exchange risk, it then tests the model in a bivariate GARCH in mean context. Little evidence is found that short-run exchange rate uncertainty consititutes a barrier to goods arbitrage.     

Price Caps,Rate of Return Constraints and Universal Service Obligations

This paper evaluates the effects of modifying price cap regulation when firms are allowed to use non-linear tariffs. We consider a stylized network industry and analyze price cap regulation combined with rate of return regulation and with a universal service obligation. While both modifications can increase aggregate welfare by reducing the pricing distortions under price cap regulation, a universal service obligation is welfare superior if the firms profits and the size of its network are held constant.     

Information Exchange and Transnational Environmental Problems

This paper analyzes information exchange in a model of transnational pollution control in which countries use private information in independently determining their domestic environmental policies. We show that countries may not always have an incentive to exchange their private information. However, for a sufficiently high degree of predictability of domestic environmental policy processes, the expected welfare from sharing information is greater than the expected welfare from keeping it private. The minimum degree of policy predictability for which information sharing occurs increases with the level of environmental risk. Intuitively, information exchange can help mitigate the perception of global uncertainty (both political and scientific) that surrounds transnational environmental problems and potentially improve welfare if policymaking processes are sufficiently aligned with evidence-based approaches (predictable).     

Costly Search, Capacity Constraints, and Bertrand Equilibrium Price Dispersion

This article analyzes the impact of transaction (search) costs and capacity constraints in an almost competitive market with homogeneous firms that compete on price. We characterize conditions under which Nash equilibria with price dispersion exist; in equilibrium, firms play pure strategies in prices and consumers adopt a symmetric mixed search strategy. Price dispersion is possible even though consumers all have the same search cost and valuation for the item and prices charged by all firms are common knowledge.     

信息发布者的财务经历与企业融资约束

信息不对称是导致企业融资约束的重要原因之一。根据高层梯队理论,董秘作为专职从事信息披露工作的公司高管,其背景特征对降低企业内外部信息不对称,进而缓解融资约束理应产生重要影响。本文的实证结果表明:当董秘拥有财务经历时,其所在企业的投资现金流敏感性更低,即融资约束水平更低;以KZ指数和SA指数衡量融资约束以及控制内生性等检验所得结果与此一致。同时,我们还发现,董秘从事财务工作时间越长、专业水平越高,其缓解融资约束的作用越大。进一步检验结果表明,财务背景的董秘吸引了较多的分析师跟踪和机构投资者投资;并且,在信息不对称程度更严重的情景下,董秘财务经历对融资约束的缓解作用更大,从而表明该作用是通过降低信息不对称得以实现的。     

股价同步性与信息效率

本文通过考察股价同步性与信息效率之间的关系,澄清一个近来在金融学术和实务上有些模糊的观点,即经典的CAPM模型所决定的股价同步性,是否意味着企业信息披露更有效？通过比较信息披露指标与同步性测度的回归结果以及进一步根据同步性构造一系列组合收益发现,较低的股价同步性并不意味着更高的信息效率。事实上,较高和较低的股价同步性都意味着比较差的信息披露效率,二者呈现出“倒U”型关系。这为今后的学术研究和实务分析提供了一个新的基础。     

价格离散、信息搜寻与团购行为

团购行为是当今消费行为学中的一个重要现象,源自市场和产品信息不对称的双重因素是导致消费者行为变化的根本原因。基于产品信息的价格函数模型,分析团购有利于消费者实现信息共享,减少搜寻成本,降低与企业间的信息不对称,减少消费行为的不确定性,从而获得更大的消费效用的结论。     

汇率价格传导机制下人民币汇率悖论的理论与实证解析

笔者通过建立VAR模型,结合我国实际情况,探讨了人民币"外升内贬"传导机理,实证分析人民币汇率悖论的传导路径。研究结果表明中国汇率升值引起外汇占款增加,外汇占款的增加导致货币供应量的增加,最终引起物价水平上涨。     

董事网络与融资约束:信息效应和资源效应

作为信息和资源的特殊载体,董事网络具有信息效应和资源效应双重优势。本文从融资约束视角证实了董事网络的双重优势。研究发现,企业嵌入董事网络可以凭借网络位置优势缓解其融资约束,这种缓解作用源于资源效应和信息效应两个渠道;然而,网络位置差异会影响上述渠道对融资约束的缓解程度,具体表现为,中心位置以资源效应为主,结构洞位置以信息效应为主。进一步研究发现,中心位置和结构洞位置仅对民营企业发挥显著作用,对国有企业的作用不显著。因此,网络位置是企业尤其民营企业构建董事网络时的首要考虑因素。     

中国实际产出波动与价格波动的关系:1992-2008

价格总水平的异常波动是近年来我国面临的现实问题.从我国经济的发展历程看高经济增长往往伴随着高通胀,而经济衰退的同时又会出现通货紧缩.本文将通货膨胀和通货紧缩理解为同一经济现象-价格水平异常波动的两种表现形式,利用贝叶斯向量自回归方法模型分析了中国实际产出波动对价格波动的影响,结果发现在封闭经济环境和开放经济环境下实际产出波动都是价格波动的格兰杰原因.Diebold-Mariano(D-M)检验也表明分别包含实际产出波动变量的贝叶斯向量自回归样本外预测模型能显著提高对价格水平变动的预测能力.所以,在全球经济衰退的环境下,面对内外需不足和企业投资萎缩导致的实际产出剧减可能使中国经济出现异常严重的通货紧缩.     

Oil Price Shocks and the Asymmetric Adjustment of UK Output: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the role played by real oil price shocks in influencing the growth in UK GDP. Our particular interest is the possibility that asymmetries might exist in such a relationship. Using Hamilton's regime-switching estimation, we consider whether oil price shocks influence both the deepness and duration of the business cycle. We find that asymmetries arise insofar as oil price appreciation is most likely to curtail the duration of the expansionary phase of the business cycle. This result is in contrast to existing studies of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship that have largely concerned the US.