Anreizwirkungen von Haftungsregeln bei nicht nachgewiesener Kausalität

This article analyses the incentives generated by liability rules for non-causal damages on the basis of a cause assumption, which can be found in the German environmental liability law. In contrast to the basic model of the economic analysis of liability rules, where strict liability and the negligence rule induce the same precaution activities for risk neutral people, both rules differ in their incentives in the case of a cause assumption. It is shown that without a possibility of exculpation for intended business there will be inefficient incentives which result in an sub-optimal social income. If there exists (like in the German law) a possibility of exculpation for intended business, a tendency for reaching the optimal precaution level can be observed. Therefore from an economic point of view the use of strict liability in combination with the German version of a cause assumption leads to an efficient result.     

Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises

We show in this article that bank failures can be contagious. Unlike earlier work where contagion stems from depositor panics or contractual links between banks, we argue that bank failures can shrink the common pool of liquidity, creating, or exacerbating aggregate liquidity shortages. This could lead to a contagion of failures and a total meltdown of the system. Given the costs of a meltdown, there is a possible role for government intervention. Unfortunately, liquidity and solvency problems interact and can cause each other, making it hard to determine the cause of a crisis. We propose a robust sequence of intervention.     

Diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle. A review of the physiology, causes, diagnosis, treatment and implications

Diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle frequently occurs in people with left ventricular hypertrophy and coronary artery disease. It is a common cause of congestive heart failure, especially in the elderly. The mechanism of diastolic dysfunction, its causes, diagnosis and treatment, are reviewed. These are important factors to a Medical Director who must assess the results of non-invasive studies. Alerted by the possibility of diastolic dysfunction, the Medical Director can be more sensitive to other signs and symptoms that may represent early signs of congestive heart failure or ischemia.     

Sanctions and the Russian stock market

The article presents the robust estimates of extreme movements and heavy-tailedness properties for Russian stock indices returns before and after sanctions were introduced. The obtained results show that almost for all sectoral indices there was a statistically significant increase in volatility. At the same time there is not enough evidence of structural breaks in heavy-tailedness, though some indications of heavier both right and left tails in the post-imposition period can be observed for some indices. However, we cannot with complete certainty directly link the increase in heavy-tailedness with the imposed sanctions. The latter to a considerable extent could be caused by higher country-specific risks due to geopolitical tensions as well as oil prices volatility. Whatever is the cause, any increases in heavy-tailedness can have grave consequences for corporate management, economic modeling and financial stability analysis.     

Giant cell arteritis complicated by aortic aneurysmal disease

The mortality rate in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA) is similar to the standard populations of similar age and sex. Where there is excess mortality, it may be due to aortic aneurysms, especially thoracic aortic dissection as complications of GCA disease. Aneurysms may develop years after cessation of treatment. The treating physician should be vigilant in assessing the patient with giant cell arteritis for thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms. However, the physician's medical records that are sent to the insurer's underwriting department may omit key information such as recommended studies. The underwriting department should have a strategy to quickly resolve this problem.     

Optimality of the RiskMetrics VaR model

Using different loss functions in estimation and forecast evaluation of econometric models can cause suboptimal parameter estimates and inaccurate assessment of predictive ability. Though there are not general guidelines on how to choose the loss function, the modeling of Value-at-Risk is a rare instance is which the loss function for forecasting evaluation is well defined. Within the context of the RiskMetrics^™ methodology, which is the most popular to calculate Value-at-Risk, we investigate the implications of considering different loss functions in estimation and forecasting evaluation. Based on U.S. equity, exchange rates, and bond market data we find that there can be substantial differences on the estimates under alternative loss functions. On calculating the 99% VaR for a 10-day horizon, the RiskMetrics^™ model for equity markets overestimates substantially the decay factor. However, the out-of-sample performance is not systematically superior by using the estimates under the correct loss function.     

我国实行金融监管一体化改革为时尚早

由于金融监管体制的选择受政治、经济、文化、历史等多方面因素的影响,不存在一个适用于所有国家或各种金融产品的一个完美的模式,也不可能将几种较好的模式整合起来构建一个超级的最优模式。我国幅员辽阔,各地区经济发展不平衡,金融机构众多。因此,同一监管政策可能会产生不同的监管效应,难以实现一体化改革所倡导的监管标准和手段的同一。     

Allocation,externalities, and building value

Externalities generally are viewed as impacting land values rather than building values. Yet when locational obsolescence is attributed to externalities, the implication is that externalities impact primarily on building values. The presence of negative externalities generally does not determine whether a building suffers from locational obsolescence; the more general cause is a misallocation of land. At the market allocation, there is no locational obsolescence even in the presence of an externality, while at the optimal allocation only an externality can produce locational obsolescence. Because locational obsolescence can exist without externalities, an externality is not a necessary condition for locational obsolescence. Because an externality can be present without accompanying locational obsolescence, an externality also is not a sufficient condition for the existence of locational obsolescence.     

Does reduced trade tax revenue affect government spending patterns?

Many skeptics of trade liberalization in the developing world argue that lowering trade taxes can cause significant fiscal pressures in countries particularly reliant on these taxes and result in a reallocation of resources away from important development goals. This paper evaluates whether there is evidence that central governments systematically change the composition of spending priorities in the wake of lowered trade tax revenues as a share of total government revenues. We find no systematic evidence for this concern in a sample of 51 developing countries for the 1991 through 2005 period.     

经济增长论的发展与动向——关于均衡的安定性与非决定性

为什么相同的经济基础,相同的地理自然环境的条件下,有的国家经济能够突飞猛进地发展,有的国家却停滞不前甚至越来越差?到底是什么因素促进了经济发展,到底有哪些因素造成了发展的不均衡?很多经济学者正在用数理经济的方法试图说明这一问题。关于这方面的研究可以应用到关于我国的经济分析中,去说明经济发展不均衡的问题,并促进我们去探讨怎样才能促进发展缓慢地区的经济发展。本文介绍了关于经济增长论的非决定性分析的最新成果和尚待解决的问题。     

Increased QRS voltage in the limb leads

Increased QRS voltage accompanied by repolarization abnormalities in a life insurance applicant's electrocardiogram should alert the medical director to the possibility of left ventricular hypertrophy. If confirmed, left ventricular hypertrophy or increased left ventricular mass is a strong independent risk factor for future cardiac events and all cause mortality. The use of the electrocardiogram to diagnose left ventricular hypertrophy can be helpful, but there are limitations that need to be considered. This ECG case study illustrates some of the pitfalls in the electrocardiographic diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy.     

我国电力消费与经济增长的关系研究

运用单位根检验、协整分析与误差修正模型,能够研究电力消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系。结果显示,电力消费与经济增长之间存在协整关系,且通过Granger因果检验发现前者是后者的格兰杰因。这一结果有助于我们了解电力行业在经济发展中的重要作用,并且对我国的电力建设、电力需求预测与电力方面政策的制定有着现实意义。     

Executive Compensation and Agency Effects

The separation of ownership from control in large corporations can cause agency problems. This study analyzes the effects of the dispersion of corporate ownership on the compensation of the top executives of Fortune 500 companies. The effects are estimated across the executive hierarchy and for different components of the compensation package in contrast to more limited previous studies. The results indicate that there is a significant agency effect on executive pay, though the magnitude is small relative to company size. The effects are greatest for the most liquid form of remuneration, salaries, and are nonuniform across executive categories, with the strongest effect found for the Chairman of the Board.     

Value-at-risk versus expected shortfall: A practical perspective

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become a standard risk measure for financial risk management. However, many authors claim that there are several conceptual problems with VaR. Among these problems, an important one is that VaR disregards any loss beyond the VaR level. We call this problem the “tail risk”. In this paper, we illustrate how the tail risk of VaR can cause serious problems in certain cases, cases in which expected shortfall can serve more aptly in its place. We discuss two cases: concentrated credit portfolio and foreign exchange rates under market stress. We show that expected shortfall requires a larger sample size than VaR to provide the same level of accuracy.     

信用衍生品市场的国际经验与中国发展——基于金融结构和宏观稳定的分析

信用衍生品是国际资本市场上最具创新性的金融工具之一。发展信用衍生品市场不仅可以转移金融机构的信用风险,同时也可以缓解金融脱媒问题,防止资本市场快速膨胀、扭曲银行和金融体系。然而,信用衍生品也有其另一面。美国金融危机显示信用衍生品与金融结构具有复杂的联系机制,可能冲击宏观稳定。本文提出,我国应深入剖析美国的信用衍生品市场与金融结构关系,跟踪国际市场的改革和发展方向,探索符合国情的信用衍生品市场发展道路。     

The ‘peso problem’ in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets

In this paper we argue that when there is small probability of an event which would cause a large change in an exchange rate, the standard tests for the efficiency of the corresponding forward exchange market are not always valid. The mark pound forward market during the German hyperinflation is cited as an example. Using data from that hyperinflation, we show that an alternative test can sometimes be constructed in cases where the usual tests are not valid. The results reverse the conclusion of earlier researchers that the mark pound forward market during the hyperinflation was not efficient.     

Morbidity and mortality associated with transient ischemic attack (TIA)

Transient ischemic attack (TIA) is defined as "an episode of focal loss of brain function attributed to ischemia that lasts less than 24 hours, is localized to a portion of the brain supplied by one vascular system, has no persistent deficit, and is not attributable to any other cause." Most TIAs are caused by small thromboemboli that originate in atheromatous areas in neck vessels or the heart. Other mechanisms include nonatherosclerotic vascular diseases, mitral valve prolapse, hematologic diseases, and abnormal blood pressure fluctuations. Even in series of fully investigated cases, there remains a group in which no cause can be found. The great majority of TIAs are extremely brief. In one series, 24% ended within 5 minutes, 39% in 15 minutes, 50% in 30 minutes, and 60% in 1 hour.     

Update on coronary artery calcium imaging

This update of coronary calcium imaging discusses methods of detecting and measuring coronary artery calcium and their correlation to coronary artery disease risk. The value of EBCT to traditional non-invasive cardiovascular tests is compared. A negative EBCT test makes the presence of atherosclerotic plaque, including unstable plaque, very unlikely. Negative EBCT may be consistent with low risk of a cardiovascular event over the next 2-5 years. Conversely, positive EBCT confirms the presence of a coronary plaque. The greater the amount of calcium, the greater the likelihood of occlusive disease, but there is a not a 1:1 relationship and findings may not be site specific. A high calcium score may be consistent with moderate to high risk of cardiovascular event within the next 2-5 years. Limitations and cautions concerning the general use of EBCT for screening are discussed.     

重新审视美国会计对中国会计国际化的影响

本文从会计实务、会计研究和会计教育三个方面分析了美国会计危机的现状和成因,然后讨论了在中国会计国际化进程中,如何借鉴美国会计的经验与教训,解决好中国自己的会计问题。本文认为,解决中国会计问题在根本上必须充分考虑中国的制度背景。     

联保融资的有效边界：威海钢贸企业集体违约案例

联保融资模式因为具有分散单个企业信用风险、借助其他企业信用资源绕开抵押物缺乏障碍、实现有效融资的特点,近几年被融资主体广泛采用。但该模式存在的最大缺点是其有效性受经济环境影响较大,即联保融资模式的有效性存在以行业下行信号为标志的边界。本文通过对威海某钢贸城内经营商户采用联保模式融资、因行业景气程度下降引发集体违约的案例进行描述,揭示联保融资模式信用风险分散功能在突破有效边界时从有效变为无效的根本原因,提出引入第三方担保、确保担保机构业务多元化可以在一定程度上防范联保融资模式的系统性风险。