中国对外直接投资的政策动因——一个新的实证研究

全球外国直接投资在世界范围内遭受到经济和金融危机的严重影响。危机改变了外国直接投资的格局：对发展中经济体和转型期经济体的投资骤增;流入发达国家的外国直接投资同期大幅度下降。同时中国对外直接投资强劲增长,成功地成为对外直接投资的重要来源。与全球外国直接投资整体下滑之势相反,中国对外直接投资呈现出逆势增长的趋势。因此有必要从宏观经济的角度对中国对外直接投资的动因进行探讨。本文从理论和实证两个角度分析中国对外直接投资的动因,认为国民生产总值、出口、对矿产和能源进口需求、外汇储备和中国对外直接投资额之间存在长期稳定的关系,其中国家政策的影响显著,中国对外直接投资会随着对矿产和能源进口需求和外汇储备的增加而增加。     

FDI from the south: The role of institutional distance and natural resources

Using a novel dataset of bilateral FDI flows, we analyze location choices of investors from emerging economies, with an emphasis on institutions and natural resources. We show that FDI from the South has a more regional aspect than investment from the North. Institutional distance has an asymmetric effect on FDI depending on whether investors choose countries with better or worse institutions. In the latter case, large institutional distance discourages FDI inflows, but this deterring effect is diminished for destination countries with substantial resources. We also find a complementary relationship between capital flows from the North and the South in developing recipient countries, which we attribute to different FDI patterns of these investors.     

FDI and environmental regulation: pollution haven or a race to the top?

Increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) flows accompanied with globalization have raised the concern of a “race to the bottom” phenomenon in environmental protection. This is because footloose investors of “dirty” industries tend to relocate to “pollution havens” of the developing world. However when pollutant is transboundary (as in the case of greenhouse gases), the source country’s incentive to relocate and the recipient country’s willingness to host such industries are not straightforward. This article studies the relationship between FDI and environmental regulation using a North–South market share game model in a two-country setting, when pollution is transboundary. Contrary to the pollution haven hypothesis, our model shows that if market sizes of the two countries are small, FDI will raise the emission standard of the host country, resulting in a “race-to-the-top” phenomenon; but if market sizes are large enough, FDI will not change the emission standard of the South (from its laxest form), a finding that is consistent with the “regulatory chill” argument. Equilibrium FDI is contingent on the fixed cost of FDI, as the traditional proximity–concentration tradeoff theory predicts.     

The impacts of PTA formation on small economies’ tax competition for FDI inflows

This paper examines why small economies are so eager to form or join preferential trade agreements (PTAs), as observed in the East Asia and the Central Europe, taking consideration of the strategic impacts of PTA formation on tax competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Based on a simple model where three asymmetric countries compete for FDI inflows, we demonstrate that PTA formation provides a strategic advantage to a small member country of PTA in competing for FDI inflows not only with respect to a non-member country but with a large member country when the integrated market size is large enough. In addition, it is shown that it might be an out-of-equilibrium path strategy for a non-member small economy to exert efforts to induce FDI inflows, because the excessive subsidies to induce FDI inflows might outweigh the gains from the FDI inflows due to strategic disadvantage in tax competition after PTA formation. These findings explain why small economies are mainly driven by the expected economic benefits including FDI inflows from joining PTA.     

Foreign direct investment: the role of institutional and cultural determinants

Using panel data for 29 source and 65 host countries in the period 1995–2009, we examine the determinants of bilateral FDI stocks, focusing on institutional and cultural factors. The results reveal that institutional and cultural distance is important and that FDI has a predominantly regional aspect. FDI to developing countries is positively affected by better institutions in the host country, while foreign investors prefer to invest in developed countries that are more corrupt and politically unstable compared to home. The results indicate that foreign investors prefer to invest in countries with less diverse societies than their own.     

Corporate transparency, cream-skimming and FDI

We develop a simple information-based model of Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. On the one hand, the relative abundance of “intangible” capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country relative corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from FDI [over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)] are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors. We provide also some evidence on the effects of corporate transparency indicators, such as accounting standards, on bilateral FDI flows from a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period of 1981-1998.     

THE POLITICS OF FDI EXPROPRIATION

I examine the role of political instability and fractionalization as potential explanations for the lack of capital flows from rich countries to poor countries (i.e., the Lucas Paradox). Using panel data from 1984 to 2014, I document that (i) developed countries exhibit larger inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), (ii) countries subject to high investment risk (IR) receive low FDI inflows, and (iii) IR is higher in fractionalized and politically unstable economies. These findings suggest a negative relationship between political instability and FDI through the IR channel. I inspect the theoretical mechanism using a dynamic political economy model of redistribution, wherein policymakers can expropriate resources from foreign investors. The proceeds are used to finance group‐specific transfers to domestic workers but hinder economic growth by discouraging FDI. I show that the political equilibrium exhibits overexpropriation and underinvestment.     

FDI Flows and Domestic Investment: Overview

The paper surveys theories of FDI and supporting evidence. Anew theory flashes out a unique feature of FDI: hands on managementstyle that enables investors to react in real time to changingeconomic environments. Equipped with superior intangible knowhow in screening firms, foreign direct investors can out bidportfolio equity investors for the top productivity firms. Theimplications of the theory are that investment is both moreefficient (namely, made dependent on the firm-specific productivity)and, in plausible cases, also larger. The theory can explainboth two way flows of FDI among developed economies, and oneway flows between developed and developing economies. Thesepredictions of the theory are consistent with panel data: largerFDI coefficients in domestic investment and output growth regressions,than those of the debt and portfolio equity coefficients. Theyare also consistent with gravity equations which explain FDIinflows by informational variables and degree of corporate transparencyin the host country.(JEL F2)     

Why is U.S. direct investment in China so small?

While the United States is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, and China is the largest FDI recipient among developing countries, U.S. direct investment (USDI) in China has been surprisingly small. This article investigates the determinants of USDI through a relative-demand model with time-series data. Evidence presented in this article indicates that the small USDI cannot be fully appreciated without understanding differences between USDI and Hong Kong direct investment (HKDI), the latter being the dominant source of FDI in China. Empirical results suggest that the USDI in China was primarily motivated by market access and that the HKDI was export oriented. The small USDI thus is a result of U.S. investors' preference for market access and China's export-promotion FDI regime, along with the troubled Sino-U.S. relations and political instabilities in China.     

Terrorism and the world economy

It has been argued that terrorism should not have a large effect on economic activity, because terrorist attacks destroy only a small fraction of the stock of capital of a country (see, e.g., Becker, G., Murphy, K., 2001. Prosperity will rise out of the ashes. Wall Street Journal October 29, 2001). In contrast, empirical estimates of the consequences of terrorism typically suggest large effects on economic outcomes (see, e.g., Abadie, A., Gardeazabal, J., 2003. The economic cost of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review 93, 113-132). The main theme of this article is that mobility of productive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism. We use a simple economic model to show that terrorism may have a large impact on the allocation of productive capital across countries, even if it represents a small fraction of the overall economic risk. The model emphasizes that, in addition to increasing uncertainty, terrorism reduces the expected return to investment. As a result, changes in the intensity of terrorism may cause large movements of capital across countries if the world economy is sufficiently open, so international investors are able to diversify other types of country risks. Using a unique data set on terrorism and other country risks, we find that, in accordance with the predictions of the model, higher levels of terrorist risks are associated with lower levels of net foreign direct investment positions, even after controlling for other types of country risks. On average, a standard deviation increase in the terrorist risk is associated with a fall in the net foreign direct investment position of about 5% of GDP. The magnitude of the estimated effect is large, which suggests that the “open-economy channel” impact of terrorism may be substantial.     

Ethnic Networks in FDI and the Impact of Institutional Development

Ethnic Chinese entrepreneurs are known for their active business networking practices, particularly in Southeast Asia. This paper empirically investigates the role of ethnic Chinese networks in promoting foreign direct investment (FDI). We further evaluate whether the effectiveness of networking activities are affected by the level of economic and institutional development of the source and the host countries. Using a standard gravity model, we find that ethnic Chinese networks are significant in facilitating cross‐border investment between countries. The strength of ethnic Chinese networks between country pairs, approximated by the product of the numbers of ethnic Chinese in both countries, is positively correlated with the cumulative amount of their reciprocal FDI. More importantly, this significant relationship is not limited to countries in Southeast Asia, but is applicable to other country pairs included in the study as well, regardless of whether the investment is originated from industrial countries or developing economies. Finally, the analysis finds no evidence that ethnic networks are only effective in countries where economic and legal institutions are under‐developed. Ethnic Chinese networks have played a significant role in promoting FDI to countries with a relatively higher bureaucratic quality, much more so than to countries with a lower bureaucratic quality.     

The determinants of FDI location choice in China: a discrete-choice analysis

This study addresses two questions: What are the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location choice in China? What are the factors that determine investors’ choice between ‘Economic zones’ in China on one hand, and ‘other cities’ of China on the other hand? This study shows that FDI location choice is sensitive both on the endowment conditions in different regions/cities/economic zones in China as well as on the country of origin of the FDI. Based on a data set of 1218 observations, the results of the binary logit regressions indicate that the protection of intellectual rights, agglomeration economies, investments in education and gross regional product affect the location choice of FDI in China. This choices, however, varies depending on the origin of the FDI. Policy makers can use these findings to channel FDI to targeted regions/ cities.     

OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE: TRADE OPENNESS AND FDI FLOWS—ARE THE EMERGING ECONOMIES CONVERGING?

This study uses the club convergence methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) for emerging economies spanning the period 1960–2013 to explore whether such convergence exists and whether the increase of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has been a global or club phenomenon. We find the absence of a homogeneous convergence club. The results for FDI outflows also reach similar conclusions, suggesting the formation of convergence clubs by stage of development. These results suggest that policies that promote convergence in trade openness and FDI flows would permit countries to benefit from mutual interactions and by greater consistency and efficiency in trade regimes, thus permitting these countries to benefit from openness leading to a race to the top rather than bottom. (JEL F41, C33)     

How Does Globalization Affect Income Inequality? A Panel Data Analysis

One of the major issues on the state of income inequality is the effect of globalization through foreign direct investment (FDI). It is well known that FDI inflows create employment opportunities for unskilled labor intensive countries. Hence, during recessionary (expansionary) periods, FDI outflows should cause an increase in a developing (developed) country’s unemployment rate, worsening income inequality. This study differs from the previous literature by employing the key variables FDI, trade volume, and GINI coefficient for a panel of three groups of countries (developed, developing, and miracle countries). We estimated panel cointegration coefficients via FM-OLS. Our results show that the effects of trade liberalization and FDI on income distribution differ for different country groups.     

Financial reforms and capital flows to emerging Europe

Analysis of 18 emerging European economies finds domestic financial reforms to be positively associated with net capital inflows. Controlling for standard determinants of capital flows, we find banking sector reforms in particular to be consistent with higher net financial inflows, whereas no such correlation is found for security market reforms or for indicators of financial depth. Additional net inflows are reaped by the EU accession countries. Countries with more reformed banking sectors receive significantly higher FDI and “other” investment net inflows; this is also found for gross financial inflows, but not for gross outflows.     

The political economy of resource-driven growth

In recent decades, resource-poor countries have out-performed resource-abundant ones. A stylised facts model of competitive industrialisation describes the long-run development of a resource-poor country with a political state that is developmental. Only minor change is required to adapt the model to trace the development trajectory of a resource-abundant country with a similar political state. However, most resource-abundant countries engender a political state that is factional or predatory and distorts the economy in the pursuit of rents. A staple trap model describes the development trajectory under these conditions. The model predicts a growth collapse from which recovery is protracted, especially for small economies that lack a niche trade link with a large economy.     

Are stocks desirable in tax-deferred accounts?

Existing literature suggests that, in order to maximize the tax benefit of retirement accounts, investors should follow a “pecking order” location rule of placing highly taxed assets (e.g., bonds) in a tax-deferred account and lightly taxed assets (e.g., stocks) in a taxable account. Empirical evidence, however, documents that a large number of investors violate this rule. In this paper, we show that such violations can be optimal for risk-averse investors who face portfolio constraints. In particular, while the strategy of placing bonds in the tax-deferred account maximizes the expected level of tax benefit, it may lead to volatile benefits under different realizations of stock returns. By holding a similar portfolio in both accounts, investors can achieve a more balanced growth in the two accounts, minimize the likelihood of violating the constraints in the future and hence “smooth” the volatility of the tax benefit. For some risk-averse investors, this smoothing motive can lead to the observed violation of the pecking order location rule. Our model predicts that such violations are more likely when future tax benefits are more volatile, which can occur, for example, when: (i) the tax rate differential across assets increases over time due either to tax law changes or to tax bracket changes for investors; (ii) asset returns are more volatile; and (iii) investors anticipate large future liquidity needs.     

Welfare effects of competition for FDI between technologically asymmetric countries with varying trade costs

Given the traditional argument that host countries' excessive competition for FDI (foreign direct investment) deteriorates the host countries' welfare, this paper examines the impact of policy competition for FDI on social welfare considering varying trade costs. Based on a model where two technologically asymmetric countries compete for FDI, we determine an equilibrium where a multinational firm relocates to a less efficient country. Moreover, we demonstrate that the policy competition for FDI between less integrated economies might improve social welfare when the multinational firm relocates to a country with a lower technology and a less competitive market. Nonetheless, we show that the traditional argument can be true when the policy competition for FDI between highly integrated economies deteriorates host countries' welfare, as supported by the empirical evidences of moderated competition for FDI within EU member countries.     

FDI into transition economies

The article explores the determination of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Balkan transition economies – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. Detailed FDI inflows to Southeast Europe are analysed to determine the main differences in the volume, timing and sectoral structure of FDI within the region and in comparison to the Central East European countries. A gravity model for all transition economies during 1990–2011 is then estimated to assess whether the factors driving FDI to the Western Balkans are different. They are found to be so; even when the size of their economies, distance from the source economies, institutional quality and prospects of EU membership are taken into account, Western Balkans countries receive less FDI than other transition countries. These issues are of policy relevance for the Balkan economies and ought to contribute to the current debate on the ‘new growth model’.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: THE KNOWLEDGE‐CAPITAL MODEL AND A SMALL COUNTRY CASE

This research looks at how foreign direct investment (FDI) in a small open economy compares with that of larger countries. I apply several specifications of the knowledge‐capital model to unique FDI data from the isolated country of Iceland, allowing for comparison with previous analysis of larger and similarly open economies. Using this together with other techniques, I seek to explain investment determinants by geography, economic size and skilled labor availability. The results of these analysis show that popular specifications do not accurately predict the effects for a small country case.