Economic Progress in Australia: An Analysis of Occupational Mobility*

Educational attainment and gender are firmly established in the labour economics literature as key determinants of an individual's economic standing at a given point in time. The concern of the present paper is to determine the impact of these characteristics on economic progress over time. A multinomial logit approach to estimating occupational attainment at various career points is employed. The use of this method of analysis in conjunction with the intertemporal linking of occupations enables us to provide a number of important insights into economic progress in the Australian labour market. Additional years of education are shown to increase the probability of employment in better jobs at the time of labour market entry and also to enhance career mobility. Analysis of male-female differences highlights the sizeable gap between the occupational distributions of these groups. Part of this difference may reflect inequality of opportunity between males and females in the Australian labour market.     

The Cost of Public Funds in Australia*

A model of labour supply is used to calculate Australia's marginal cost of public funds, which is the appropriate cut-off benefit/ cost ratio for an additional public project. The labour supply model incorporates effective average and marginal tax rates faced by the representative household in each gross income decile. These rates are estimated from the ABS 1988–89 Household Expenditure Survey. A simulation analysis is performed to calculate the effect on labour supply of a 1 per cent increase in marginal tax rates. The estimated changes in tax revenues and deadweight loss in each decile are used to estimate the marginal cost of public funds.     

Fiscal Decentralization and Public Sector Size in Australia*

This paper examines the impact of fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental collusion, and the resulting fiscal dependence, on the size of the public sector in Australia. Contrary to evidence for the United States, fiscal decentralization is found to have no impact on public sector size in Australia. Three possible explanations for this finding were suggested the relatively small number of lower-level governments; the economic insignificance of local governments; and the relative immobility of citizens. Fiscal dependence of State governments on the Commonwealth proves a significant determinant of public sector size, consistent with findings for the United States.     

Substitution Between Private and Public Consumption in Australia*

Large increases in the private sector's savings ratio during a period of rapid growth in the relative size of the public sector has led to the suggestion that substitution between private and public consumption may be an important fcature of the Australian economy (Clements 1979). In this paper, empirical estimates are presented which indicate that no such substitution exists The estimates are derived from a theoretical model of consumption which is based on inter-temporal optimization in a stochastic environment. The estimates also suggest that private sector consumption behaviour is consistent with the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and Ricardian equivalence     

The Economic Effects of Public Housing in Australia*

Public housing provides subsidized shelter to approximately 300 000 families in Australia. This paper provides the first estimates of the effects of the program on die consumption pattern of participants, and of the benefits they derive from U. It also examines the distribution of benefits among participants. The effects of the public housing programs are compared with those under an alternative program of equivalent-value, unrestricted cash grants.     

Labour Utilization and Wage Inflation in Australia: An Empirical Examination*

This paper tests the hypothesis that the level of labour utilization within the firm should be substituted into the Phillips Curve in place of traditional measures of excess demand. Gregory and Smith (1983) proposed overtime hours as a proxy for labour utilization within the firm. For various reasons we prefer the deviation from trend in hours worked. The results support the underlying hypothesis, and add strength to the view that to understand the process of wage inflation at the macro level we must examine the utilization of labour at the micro level of the firm.     

Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation*

This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Australia. It differs from most modern criminological analysis by being aggregative rather than offender-based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imprisonments have operated as major deterrent factors in explaining variations in recorded crime rates. These deterrence results seem especially strong and robust. Improved measurement, however, could alter the findings for some other influences examined. The paper considers the relationship of these research findings to criminal justice policy.     

Regional Consumption Patterns in Australia: A System-Wide Analysis*

This paper uses consumption data for eight commodity groups to present a system-wide analysis of consumption patterns in the six States of Australia. We test the hypotheses of demand homogeneity, Slutsky symmetry and preference independence using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and find general acceptance of these hypotheses for the six States. The paper also presents demand elasticities for the eight commodity groups in each State. We find, overall, food, clothing and housing commodity groups are necessities while durables, medical care, transport and miscellaneous groups are luxuries. We also find evidence in support of similarity of consumption patterns across the six Australian States.     

Sex Differences in Labour Turnover in the Australian Public Service*

This paper reports the use of a large data set of Australian government employees in an analysis of the influence of sex on voluntary labour turnover. Estimates derived from a conventional quit model are used to obtain ceteris paribus sex specific quit probabilities. These suggest that once other relevant variables are held constant, the expected quit differences between men and single women are significantly reduced. The analysis indicates clearly that the use of aggregate statistics may substantially exaggerate turnover differences attributable to sex.     

Distributional Effects of Public Education in an Economy with Public Pensions*

We study how the allocation of government expenditures between two major outlays—education and pay‐as‐you‐go social security—affects human capital distribution in an economy with heterogeneous agents. We consider an overlapping generations economy where the government maintains both programs, and allocates tax revenues to finance them. In our model, human capital is one of the factors of production. It is itself produced as a combined result of public inputs and private inputs. Parents' decisions to invest time and material resources in education of their children are motivated by altruism, heterogeneous in its strength across the population, which leads to heterogeneity of incomes. We investigate the effect of an increase in public funding for education on the human capital distribution. We show that in this framework, contrary to some earlier results, increased spending on public education may lead to higher inequality. Our results depend crucially on the interaction of education funding with the social security budget and on the elasticity of substitution in the learning technology.     

An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia*

This paper analyzes the Fisher effect in Australia. Initial testing indicates that both interest rates and inflation contain unit roots. Furthermore, there are indications that the variables have non-standard error processes. To overcome problems associated with this and derive the correct small sample distributions of test statistics we make use of Monte Carlo simulations. These tests indicate that while a long-run Fisher effect seems to exist, there is no evidence of a short-run Fisher effect. This suggests that, while short-run changes in interest rates reflect changes in monetary policy, longer run levels indicate inflationary expectations. Thus, the longer run level of interest rates should not be used to characterize the stance of monetary policy.     

Financing Higher Education: A General Equilibrium Public Choice Approach*

A public choice approach is used to examine the level of a tax-financed grant chosen by a cohort, allowing for a wide range of interdependencies, including the goverment's budget constraint The existence of an externality is necessary, but not sufficient, for support of a grant It is shown that a majority voting equilibrium exists. Comparative static analyses are carried out using a minimum of assumptions about the structure of the model An increase in government expenditure for non-higher education purposes is associated with an increase in the preferred grant while an increase in private returns to education reduces the grant     

Public opinion on immigration in Europe: Preference and salience

Studies of public opinion on immigration have focused on the responses to survey questions about whether the individual would prefer more or less immigration (preference) but not on his or her assessment of its importance as a policy issue (salience). Analysis of data from the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer indicates that preference and salience are associated with different individual-level characteristics. At the national level they move differently over time and in response to different macro-level variables. Both dimensions of opinion must be taken into account as influences on the formation of immigration policy.     

Equilibrium Unemployment in Australia: Concepts and Measurement*

This paper reviews some concepts of equilibrium unemployment and outlines the fundamental difficulties facing any attempt to produce estimates of the equilibrium rate of unemployment. It develops simple quasi-reduced form models of aggregate unemployment based on rival non market-clearing and market-clearing theories. These equations form the basis of an empirical model of aggregate unemployment in Australia since 1969. The empirical evidence suggests that most of the observed increase in unemployment can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural-frictional factors. However, stylized explanations of cyclical unemployment exclusively along the lines of Keynesian, Classical or equilibrium search theory are found inadequate.     

Unemployment in Australia: Duration and Recurrent Spells*

Using a parametric technique. this paper estimates average completed duration of unemployment for several age and sex categories. It shows that the use of Labour Force Survey data leads to underestimates due to the presence of recurrent unemployment. When allowance is made, using A BS Persons Looking for Work and Labour Force Experience data, it is shown that new entrants to unemployment in 1981 could expect to remain unemployed for nearly six months. For teenagers evidence is presented to suggest that, contrary to current economic thought, teenagers may on average be unemployed for longer periods per spell and may have less experience of recurrent spells than their counterparts. It also shows that changes in the unemployment rate are dominated by changes in duration.     

Wages and Unemployment in Australia*

This paper reviews various models that may be used to analyze the inflation-unemployment problem in Australia. The focus is on the unemployment problem, rather than on inflation, and on the role of wages, nominal and real, in affecting this problem. Models discussed include the Popular Keynesian, Phillips Curve, Fixed Coefficient and Neoclassical Models. The possibility of increasing returns is considered. Australian evidence bearing on the appropriateness of these models is discussed. The effect of demand expansion on the exchange rate and hence real wages is stressed. Some emphasis is placed on the concept of ‘union-voluntary’ unemployment. At the end possible solutions to the unemployment problem are summarized.     

Australia, Japan and the OECD: GDP Rankings and Revealed Preference

Data on volumes and prices of consumption and investment are used to compare Australian real GDP for 1990 with the other OECD countries. Australian consumption patterns, including leisure, and price structure are very different from most other countries and especially from those of Japan. The Australian bundle of consumption, investment and leisure is revealed preferred to that of Japan and a number of other countries which are conventionally ranked above Australia in comparisons of real GDP per capita at international prices.