基于网络的新型药品营销模式探索

药品在质量、包装规格、主要成分、主要功能、适用范围等都可以高度标准化,因此药品是非常适合从事网上交易的。本文就目前药品网络营销在发达国家和我国的发展现状进行概要性总结,指出我国的药品网络营销与发达国家在此方面的差距,对药品网络营销在我国发展的市场前景进行了分析和预测,介绍了电子商务中的B2C经营模式,以及一种将B2C经营模式应用于药品网络销售的新营销模式,分别从构建新型B2C药品营销模式与零售药店和连锁药店的合作模式、对消费者的服务模式以及新型B2C药品营销模式的盈利方式等方面探讨了新型B2C网络药店的可行性,并深入分析了这种新型B2C药品营销模式相对于传统药店和传统售药网站的优势。最后本文对上述新型B2C网络药店提出了具体的网站参考模型。     

On rationality of business expectations: A micro analysis of qualitative responses

Rationality of expectations of individual agents have been shown to play a crucial role for macroeconomic model building and economic policy. Many applied studies therefore tried to test the implications of rationality by use of survey data. This paper differs from previous studies in that the data used are qualitative monthly survey responses by a large number of individual manufacturing firms to questions concerning their own expected and current business conditions. Results tend to reject the validity of the hypothesis of unbiasedness and efficiency. Due to the qualitative nature of the data, use is made of the log-linear probability model.     

上海金山区社区药学报务需求状况的调查

为了解社区居民药学服务的需求状况,更好地为居民提供有效的药学服务。上海市食品药品监督管理局金山分局在上海金山区社区居民中开展了一项有关慢性病药物使用情况调查。调查数据的分析显示,社区药学服务需求满足程度较低,居民接受健康教育和定期体检的意识不强,药学服务有待进一步加强。社区应建立健康档案网络平台,增加社区居民健康培训和健康体检活动频次。药监部门应加大不合格药品和保健品的查处力度。     

Participation and Consumption of Illegal Drugs among Adolescents

This paper identifies the determinants affecting the adolescent populations' decision regarding whether or not to consume illegal drugs. The authors estimate a simultaneous Type II Tobit model for each sample substance, including marijuana, LSD, amphetamines, cocaine, volatile substances, and heroine. The data are drawn from three Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998. The results indicate that illegal drug use among Spanish adolescents is clearly determined by economic variables. It is similarly determined by other sociodemographic variables, such as personal habits, family environment, and the receipt of information regarding the negative consequences of drug use. This paper was partially written while José Alberto Molina was Visiting Researcher at the Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada-FEDEA (Madrid, Spain), to which he would like to express his thanks for the hospitality and facilities provided. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful observations on an earlier version of this paper. Similarly, Namkee Ahn, as well as various participants at the XIX Spanish Health Economics Meeting (Zaragoza, Spain) and at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (Washington DC), have all offered valuable comments and suggestions. Finally, the authors would like to express their gratitude for the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Education-CICYT and the European Commission (Project FEDER 2FD97-2057). The usual disclaimer applies.     

Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of environmental innovations — An empirical approach

This paper presents an agent-based model of the diffusion of water-saving innovations. The empirical foundation of this model is a study, which was carried out for that specific purpose. As an example case, the diffusion of three water-related innovations in Southern Germany was chosen. The model represents a real geographic area and simulates the diffusion of showerheads, toilet flushes, and rain-harvesting systems. Agents are households of certain lifestyles, as represented by the Sinus-Milieus® from commercial marketing. Agents use two different kinds of decision rules to decide upon adoption or rejection of the modeled innovations: A cognitively demanding deliberate decision rule and a very simple decision heuristic. Thus, the model integrates concepts of bounded rationality. The overall framework for decision-making is the Theory of Planned Behavior, which has been elaborated using innovation characteristics from diffusion research. The model was calibrated with empirical data stemming from a questionnaire survey and validated against independent data. Scenarios for the nearer future show that water-saving innovations will diffuse even without further promotion, and different promotion strategies that relate specifically to both innovations and lifestyles can be pointed out.     

STATE DRUG CONTROL SPENDING AND ILLICIT DRUG PARTICIPATION

The purpose of this article is to estimate the effect of state criminal justice expenditures and state public health expenditures on deterring illicit drug use. The empirics are based on a demand-and-supply model of drug markets. The effect of a given expenditure on criminal justice or public health programs is dependent on the magnitude of the resulting shifts in the two functions and the demand price elasticity. A reduced form of the demand-and-supply model is also estimated. The data employed come from the 1990 and 1991 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA). Data on state and local spending for drug-related criminal justice and drug-related public health programs were merged with the NHSDA. The main findings from the regression results are that drug control spending reduces drug use. However, the results suggest that for marijuana users, the marginal cost of drug control exceeds the social benefits of drug control. This may not be the case for users of other illicit drugs. Spending for drug enforcement by police and drug treatment is found most effective in deterring drug use. However, spending for correctional facilities is never significant, which suggests that a more efficient method of reducing drug use might be to reduce correctional facilities spending and increase spending on treatment.     

Determinants of adoption of Internet in Africa: Case of 17 sub-Saharan countries

This study develops two-level hierarchical model that identifies factors that favor or hamper the use of Internet in Africa. We used data from a survey covering 17 African countries. Our results confirm that urbanization and the spread of Internet infrastructures play an important role in individual decisions to adopt this technology. They also reveal that an individual will have a larger probability to use Internet if he/she has at least completed primary education.Moreover, individual characteristics such as sex, age, level of education, and a social network membership greatly influence Internet adoption. Indeed, men are more likely to use Internet than women; this probability is larger if they are young (16–30 years old) or if they attained at least secondary education level or if they are members of a social network.     

Internet Job Search and Labor Market Outcome

This study examines the effect of the use of internet job search (IJS) on individual wages. The data utilized in the study are obtained from the Internet and Computer Use Dictionary in the Current Population Survey of September 2001 and October 2003. An Oaxaca Decomposition is used to examine the extent to which wage differences are influenced by IJS. The results show that accessibility to the internet is a crucial factor in the decision of an individual to utilize the internet for job search activities. However, no clear evidence exists that IJS increases individual wages. Additionally, the study also demonstrates that IJS is subject to self-selection bias. Thus, failure to control for self-selection bias results in a very serious bias in estimation.     

Firm Organization,Technology And Performance: An Empirical Study ∗

The purpose of the study is to characterize different styles of work organization in French firms and their current changes and to link them to the use of specific technologies and to firms performance. The data which are used arc of two kinds: a labor force survey (1 470 blue collar) and a business survey (7 089 firms). We show that two main variables create differences among firms' organization devices: the intensity of communication within the workshop and the level of autonomy of workers (facing technological and hierarchical constraints). The use of advanced technologies and the skill of the labor force are positively linked to both organizational variables. Therefore. ‘Communicating organization’ and organizational innovation seem to aim at creating conditions for individual and collective learning on new technologies. They also enhance the ability of the firm to adapt to changing market conditions through technological innovation and inventory reduction, These views are supported by econometric estimation.     

Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand,the choice of provider and potential revenues

This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forecasting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The analysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what type was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit type. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel during the years 1998–2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model employing aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was based on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual usage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. The research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular telephone market.     

Choice of specialization: do peers matter?

Social influence is an important factor in learning and decision-making. We estimate peer influence on student choice of specialization using data on undergraduate students of a Russian university. Information about individual social ties has been gathered from a questionnaire survey. We show that specialization choice is significantly influenced by friends as well as by study partners. The strongest effect is produced by friends who are study partners and those who have similar academic achievements. Reciprocal friendship ties have a stronger influence on the choice than nonreciprocal ones. Also, the decision is affected by classmates with similar academic achievement. The results allow us to better understand the mechanisms of peer effects in the specialization choice.     

Is individual environmental consciousness one of the determinants in transport mode choice?

This article models negative impact on the environment as one of the attributes of transport mode. By this modelling, we are able to examine whether individual environmental consciousness of this impact plays a significant role in his/her choice of transport mode. A survey data from Saito and Onohara Area in Northern Osaka of Japan is used to estimate the model with the Heteroscedastic Extreme Value specification. Both of the estimated and simulated results imply that individual environmental consciousness does influence his/her decision on transport mode choice in the sample. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio tests indicate that both the utility and scale parameters are not equivalent across sub-samples of university commuters, research-facility commuters and residents. The results of the comparison across sub-samples suggest that sometimes we may learn more from sub-dividing a whole sample into several sub-samples if we could distinguish them by their characteristics.     

Using cellular automata to simulate electronic commerce receptivity in small organisations

The focus of the research is to study the dynamics of electronic commerce propagation caused by organisational characteristics in small organisations. A model of opinion dynamics and verbalisation process for studying the receptivity of electronic commerce in small organisations in Slovenia is proposed. The methodology is based on cellular automata approach, diffusion theory, small organisations characteristics and studies on factors affecting electronic commerce introduction and usage in small organisations. The decision of an organisation whether to adopt electronic commerce or not is based on its attitude towards electronic commerce and impressions gathered from interactions with other organisations. Different characteristics of organisations were defined according to the data gathered by interviews and a survey. Several types of electronic commerce diffusion dynamics are evident from the data gathered. The most likely scenario of electronic commerce diffusion among small organizations in Slovenia predicts a decrease in organizations that are less mature in e-commerce and the increase in more mature organizations by 6-8% by the end of year 2006.     

The political economy of corporate tax harmonization — Why do European politicians (dis)like minimum tax rates?

Setting minimum tax rates is a well discussed way of mitigating pressure from tax competition. This paper investigates which motives shape the support for a minimum corporate tax among politicians. We make use of a unique data base: a survey among members of the European parliament. Our results confirm that the politicians' ideology as well as individual characteristics such as educational background exert a major influence. Moreover, several predictions regarding national interests are derived from various standard tax competition models. These hypotheses are partly supported by the data; in particular, different national preferences towards social equality shape the support. A comparison with survey results from the German Bundestag reveals that German politicians on the national level do not show different attitudes towards tax rate harmonization.     

Estimating the factors determining the demand for induced abortions among married women in Taiwan

This paper purports to estimate the characteristics of women who had experiences of abortion in 1991 based on an economic model of fertility. The study makes use of a national survey on the knowledge of, attitude towards, and practice of family planning and reproductive health among married women in Taiwan. The results show that older women with higher family income and who live in urban areas were more likely to have the pregnancy terminated. In addition, the decision to have an abortion was negatively correlated with prior pregnancy loss, but positively associated with the number of previous live births. On the other hand, the availability of abortion services as measured by the number of legal abortion providers at city and county levels had a negative effect on the demand for abortions. The local female unemployment rate was found to be positively correlated with the woman's decision to have an abortion.     

农民工犯罪类别的决定因素——基于监狱调查数据的实证分析

基于监狱调查数据,本文分析了农村户籍服刑人员和普通农民工之间,以及服刑人员内部在个人基本信息、性格特质和家庭背景三个维度上的差异。研究发现农民工罪犯主要参与暴力犯罪和盗窃。与农民工相比,服刑人员总体上年纪小,教育不足,认知能力和性格特征存在缺陷,兄弟姐妹多,母亲教育程度低。区分不同犯罪类型,以上特征多表现在暴力犯和盗窃犯身上;而涉毒犯和经济犯的特征为进城时间长、认知能力强和无差异的年龄及母亲教育程度。     

Illicit drug use and labour market achievement: evidence from the UK

This study, using data from the British Crime Survey (BCS), examines the effect of drug use on occupational achievement. It starts by attempting to overcome the identification problem that results from the limited set of drug use questions presented in the BCS. Taking this into account, and allowing for the endogeneity of drug use in equations for unemployment and labour market outcomes, that a mild positive association with ‘soft’ drugs and occupational achievement is observed that diminishes with age. This relationship holds for males but not for females. In contrast, it is also found that past use of ‘hard’ drugs significantly increases the likelihood of current unemployment, although it appears to be unrelated to occupational success, conditional on achieving employment.     

Is cannabis a gateway to hard drugs?

The gateway hypothesis proposes that use of cannabis directly increases the risk of consuming hard drugs. We test this controversial, but influential, hypothesis on a sample of cannabis users, exploiting a unique set of drug price data. A flexible approach is developed to identify the causal gateway effect using a bivariate survival model with shared frailty estimated using a latent class approach. The model suggests two distinct groups; a smaller group of “troubled youths” for whom there is a statistically significant gateway effect that more than doubles the hazard of starting to use hard drugs and a larger fraction of youths for whom previous cannabis use has less impact.