The demand for distinction and the evolution of the prestige car

This paper studies the demand for a distinction good – the prestige car – and examines how this demand for distinction influences the evolution of the product. We focus on two very different sorts of distinction car: the Rolls Royce and the Ferrari. These two examples help us to articulate two polar approaches to the demand for distinction: distinction through antiquity and distinction through novelty. The paper sets out a model of the demand for distinction, and uses it to describe two trajectories along which the prestige car – and the demand for it – may evolve.     

The effects of competitors on new product launch and market expansion in the hybrid car market

This paper evaluates the effect of competitors on automakers’ new product launch and market expansion decisions in the hybrid car market. Using data from the entire history in US hybrid car market from 2000 to 2014, this paper estimates a Poisson model with endogeneous switching to account for the initial launch and the following expansion decisions. The results indicate that the presence of competing brands’ hybrid vehicle models has a net positive effect on a brand’s initial launch and expansion decisions. This suggests that demand expansion and market learning from competitors’ hybrid model launch and consumer cultivation are very important for this relatively new technology. Further, I find that the impact of competitors varies over time, vehicle origins, and classes.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.The first draft of this paper was mostly prepared while Claudio Lupi was working as a Research Director at ISAE. The present version of the paper is a revision of a preliminary draft that was circulated under the same title as ISAE working paper 20/01. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, audiences at ISAE, Dublin (22nd International Symposium on Forecasting), and Ente Einaudi (econometrics seminars) for comments. Fruitful discussions and suggestions from Gianluca Cubadda, Sergio de Nardis, John FitzGerald, Antonio García-Ferrer, Franco Peracchi, and Tommaso Proietti are gratefully acknowledged. None of them is responsible for any remaining error. The opinions expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of ISAE or its staff.First revision received: Ocotber 2002/Final revision received: May 2003     

Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project

This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14 years ago [1]. TechCast is an online Delphi system that pools background trends and the judgment of experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Results are presented for strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts, providing an overview of the Technology Revolution. Aggregating the forecast data then provides macro-forecasts of broad timetables for economic and social change. This analysis suggests that the global economy is likely to enter a new economic upcycle about 2015 and reach an advanced stage of development about 2020. We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing uncertainty.     

Quantitative mapping of patented technology — The case of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite

This study aims to obtain global technology evolution by constructing and analyzing patent citation network and patent citation map for the field of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite. A total of 1421 patents are retrieved from USPTO patent database and patent citation network is established by combing both patent citation and social network analysis. Network properties, e.g. Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality, are calculated for representing several technology evolution mechanisms that first proposed in this study. Also, a distance-based patent citation map is constructed by calculating relative distances and positions of patents in the patent citation network. Quantitative ways of exploring technology evolution are investigated in this study to unveil important or emerging techniques as well as to demonstrate dynamics and visualization of technology evolutions.     

Specialization,product development,evolution of the institution of the firm,and economic growth

This paper considers the effects of the division of labor on economic growth and welfare in a general equilibrium environment where changes in individual specialization and product development can proceed simultaneously. The nature of the dynamic equilibrium is shown to depend on the interaction of transaction efficiency, economies of specialization, and economies of complementarity. Where the dynamic equilibrium involves evolution in the division of labor, this will be associated with increased per capita real income and hence economic growth. It is also shown that the emergence of firms is an aspect of the evolution of division of labor if transaction efficiency for a producer good is lower than that for labor used to produce this good.     

Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France

In this paper we forecast annual budget deficits using monthly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: (1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all items of central government revenues and expenditures; (2) inferring the annual ARIMA models from the monthly models; (3) using the inferred annual ARIMA models to perform one-step-ahead forecasts for each item; (4) compounding the annual forecasts of all revenues and expenditures to obtain an annual budget deficit forecast. The major empirical benefit of this technique is that as soon as new monthly data become available, annual deficit forecasts are updated. This allows us to detect in advance possible slippages in central government finances. For years 2002–2004, forecasts obtained following the proposed approach are compared with a benchmark method and with official predictions published by the French government. An evaluation of their relative performance is provided.      

中国宏观经济总量的实时预报与短期预测——基于混频数据预测模型的实证研究

季度GDP的走势与波动不仅会影响政府的财政收支、企业的盈利和财务状况,甚至还会影响家庭和个人的收入与支出,是宏观经济总量预报、预测与分析的重中之重。传统的宏观经济总量预测模型是基于同频数据进行的,高频和超高频数据必需处理为低频数据,这不仅忽略了高频数据信息的变化,还影响了模型预报和预测的及时性,降低了模型的预测精度。本文将混合数据抽样模型(MIDAS)用于中国季度GDP的预报和预测,实证研究表明,出口是造成我国金融危机时期经济增长减速的主要因素,MIDAS模型在中国宏观经济总量的短期预测方面具有精确性的比较优势,在实时预报方面具有显著的可行性和时效性。     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

The costs and benefits of refuge requirements: The case of Bt cotton

Refuge requirements have been the primary regulatory tool to delay pest resistance to Bt crops. This paper presents a simple method to estimate the annual cost of refuges to producers, applying it to Bt cotton. It also examines broader welfare impacts, estimating how Bt cotton acreage restrictions affect producer surplus, consumer surplus, seed supplier profits, and commodity program outlays. The implications of grower adoption behavior — partial adoption, aggregate adoption, and refuge choice — for regulatory costs are examined. Empirical examples illustrate how providing multiple refuge options significantly reduces regulatory costs.     

Emission taxes and the adoption of cleaner technologies: The case of environmentally conscious consumers

We model a market with environmentally conscious consumers and a duopoly in which firms consider the adoption of a clean technology. We show that as pollution increases, consumers shift more resources to the environmental activities, thereby affecting negatively the demand faced by the duopoly. This effect generates incentives for firms to adopt the clean technology even in the absence of emissions taxes. When such taxes are considered, our results indicate that the benefit of adopting the clean technology is initially increasing and then decreasing in the emission tax. The range of values for which the emission tax increases this benefit becomes narrower when the consumers’ environmental awareness is stronger.     

Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules

Recently, technology roadmap has received increasing interest from academics and practitioners alike, as it is a powerful and inherently flexible approach in terms of architectural structure and construction process. However, the potential benefit may not be fully exploited due to the difficulty in customizing roadmaps to fit specific needs and/or to accommodate unusual circumstances. In response, the main purpose of this research is to provide guidance for customizing roadmaps. Specifically, we adopt a modularization method for mass customization and suggest a set of different roadmaps for different purposes such as forecasting, planning, and administration. In addition, a web-based system is developed to facilitate the roadmapping activities, which in turn ensures the creation, dissemination, and upkeep of roadmaps. With the system having a customization function, a set of customized roadmaps can be generated simply by selecting the application purpose and then meeting the input requirements. The function helps prospective users design roadmap formats and contents.     

Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: the role of battery technology performance

In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase electric vehicles (EVs), the government has been funding battery research to solve some of these problems. This paper presents a study using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to forecast future battery performance characteristics. The results were compared against the performance goals established by the US Department of Energy (DOE). We find that the foreseen progress of EV battery performance will be insufficient to meet the DOE projected goals for the range that EVs can travel before running out of power. Therefore, a new battery technology must be developed because the incremental improvements in current battery technologies leave EVs considerably short of the DOE performance specification for longer trip ranges.     

国际技术扩散的度量、途径及阻碍:一个文献综述

全球大部分技术来源于少数发达国家,在经济全球化背景下,技术通过各种渠道在世界范围内的扩散,对各国的技术水平和经济发展产生了重要影响,国际技术扩散日益成为经济增长理论关注的核心问题之一。本文从三个方面对国际技术扩散的文献进行了梳理和总结,包括技术扩散度量的方式、技术扩散的途径及影响技术扩散的因素。相关研究文献表明,在数量上更精准地度量国际技术扩散已经取得了重要进展;通过国际贸易实现的技术扩散能够提高几乎所有国家的生产效率,但是与FD I流入相联系的技术扩散溢出效应却在发达国家和发展中国家之间呈现出显著的差异;一国的地理距离、技术差距、要素禀赋以及政治制度等若干因素为理解这一现象提供了解释。     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

The typology of technology clusters and its evolution — Evidence from the hi-tech industries

Clustering is one of the key drivers for regional economic growth. Development of clusters is a dynamic process shaped by a variety of internal and external factors such as availability of skilled labor, presence of functioning networks and partnerships, technological changes, and market competition, etc. As a result, the patterns of cluster growth may differ from one another. Although each cluster is unique in some way, previous research has attempted to identify few simplified models of evolution of clusters. In this study, we briefly reviewed the literature on a variety of models of clusters. Based on these models, we investigated 15 hi-performing metropolitan-based clusters in the United States, covering communications equipment manufacturing, information technology, and biopharmaceutical industries, in order to find out the similarities and differences between real-world clusters. Specifically, by examining the composition of these high-tech clusters, we attempted to find out the following: 1) What are the typologies of these technology clusters? 2) Whether different industries tend to support different cluster typologies? and 3) How do clusters change their typologies over time? Our analysis results suggest that the real-world clusters rarely feature any single type of typology; a mixed type of typology is much more prevalent in reality.We also found that different industries tend to support different types of cluster typologies. In other words, an individual cluster's typology is to some extent shaped by the industry group it belongs to. In addition, we note that, as a cluster goes through different stages of its lifecycle, its typology may change significantly.