Shang inquiry as an alternative to Delphi: Some experimental findings

A new group judgment method known as Shang is presented as an alternative to Delphi. Shang is structured to avoid Delphi problems associated with convergence pressures and response commitment while incorporating Delphi advantages. The new method is evaluated through an experiment comparing it with a control method and two Delphi techniques, one using point estimates and one using distributional estimates. Findings indicate that Shang is generally superior to Delphi in producing accurate numerical estimates from the judgments of a group of experts.     

Exploring the application of the Delphi method as a forecasting tool in Information Systems and Technologies research

The Delphi method has been used widely in clarifying decision-making based on the opinions of experts in all research areas. This study focuses on Information Systems and Information Technology (IS/IT) research area. Its aim is to explore the use of the Delphi method in topics related to IS/IT as a forecasting tool. A sizeable amount of research has been examined about IS/IT using the Delphi method. This work proposes a guideline for applying the Delphi method in IS/IT studies based on a literature review of high impact IS/IT papers that apply Delphi with a view to answering forecasting questions. This guideline defines the most relevant aspects which should be considered when applying this method. Previously, the authors conducted a literature review of 2502 articles from different research topics to obtain evidence about the diffusion of the Delphi method in IS/IT compared to other areas.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

The use of Delphi methodology in agrifood policy development: Some lessons learned

Developing policy in the agrifood area is an inexact process, usually relying upon effective integration of opinions from multiple experts from different disciplines, organisational types, and regions/countries. Delphi would appear to have the potential to overcome some of the typical limitations related to soliciting expert opinion and identifying consensus on future activities or options, particularly where relevant experts are dispersed geographically, and international consensus is required, as is the case in this domain. Three case studies, focused on the application of Delphi to emerging policy needs in international or European agrifood policy, are presented here to exemplify the utility of the technique. A number of practical recommendations are drawn from these case studies that may be applicable to other major policy making arenas. Among these recommendations are; that an exploratory workshop to refine round one Delphi questions is essential; that the implementation of “cascade” methodology (utilizing the personal contacts of researchers or members of existing policy networks) appears to increase response rates in subsequent Delphi rounds; and that the policy issue under discussion should be particularly relevant to stakeholders in order to increase participation rates. Further research might usefully focus on developing ways to incorporate measurements of uncertainty associated with stakeholder judgement into quantitative responses, and on establishing how best to utilise such information in feedback in subsequent Delphi rounds. Ensuring how best to inform policy uptake of the outputs of Delphi merits further research in particular.     

Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy

This paper further enhances the analytical power of Delphi methodology by identifying the advantages, disadvantages and challenges presented by increasing diversity among panel groups. Using Delphi survey data on the future of nuclear energy in France, we analyze the origins of the variety of judgments within and between two panels: one of experts and one of laypeople. We investigate the determinants of the stability of those opinions both in one given round and over several rounds of opinion-formation. We reach an apparently paradoxical conclusion: that non-expert judgment is less stable, but not necessarily less accurate, than that of experts, judgments on the part of experts sometimes being clouded by self-interest. Apart from highlighting some factors underlying the controversy over nuclear power, our paper calls for greater participatory democracy in Delphi panels, but also demonstrates the limits of such an extension.     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.     

Valuing Global Ecosystem Services: What Do European Experts Say? Applying the Delphi Method to Contingent Valuation of the Amazon Rainforest

Valuing global public goods like the Amazon rainforest by stated preference surveys of a representative sample of the global population would be very costly and time consuming. We explore the use of the Delphi Method in contingent valuation (CV) by asking a panel of 49 European environmental valuation experts in two rounds what they think would be the result if a European CV survey of Amazon Rainforest protection plans was conducted. The experts’ best guess for the mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) by European households for preserving the current Amazon Rainforest, and thus avoiding a predicted loss in forest area by 2050 from currently 85% to 60% of the original forest in the 1970s, was 28 € per household annually as an additional income tax. Aggregated over all European households this amounts to about 8.4 billion € annually. This preliminary estimate indicate that WTP of distant beneficiaries is substantial, and could justify preservation of global ecosystem services where aggregated benefits of the local population often do not exceed the opportunity costs of preservation in terms of lost income from commercial activities. The income elasticity of WTP with respect to per-capita income in the European countries is 0.5–0.6. Recognizing the limitations and assumptions of the Delphi CV method, it could still be a time saving and cost-effective benefit transfer tool for providing international donors with much needed order-of-magnitude estimates of the non-use value of ecosystem services of global significance.     

园区整合：产业空间重构的必然选择——资源条件紧约束下的深圳宝安工业布局

集中与扩散的对立统一是引导产业有机集聚的理论基础.合理的空间集聚有利于促进产业的集群化发展和土地的集约化利用.文章结合深圳宝安区在工业快速发展过程中面临着土地资源紧张、环境恶化、城市用地功能结构失衡等诸多问题,提出了基于工业园区整合的产业空间重构思路,构建了"三轴五片二十四园"的产业布局结构,阐述了空间整合中亟待解决的核心问题,并提出推动园区整合的若干实施建议.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Quantifying the development of agreement among experts in Delphi studies

Delphi studies are often conducted with the aim of achieving consensus or agreement among experts. However, many Delphi studies fail to offer a concise interpretation of the meaning of consensus or agreement. Whereas several statistical operationalizations of agreement exist, hardly any of these indices is used in Delphi studies. In this study, computer simulations were used to study different indices of agreement within different Delphi scenarios. A distinction was made between the indices of consensus (Demoivre index), agreement indices (e.g., Cohen's kappa and generalizations thereof), and association indices (e.g., Cronbach's alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient). Delphi scenarios were created by varying the number of objects, the number of experts, the distribution of object ratings, and the degree to which agreement increased between subsequent rounds. Each scenario consisted of three rounds and was replicated 1000 times. The simulation study showed that in the same data, different indices suggest different levels of agreement, and also, different levels of change of agreement between rounds. In applied Delphi studies, researchers should be more transparent regarding their choice of agreement index and report the value of the chosen index within every round as to provide insight into how the suggested agreement level has developed across rounds.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique

Focusing on the general issues of reliability and validity, several specific problems evident in reported applications of the Delphi method to forecasting are discussed. Reliability threats, which are noted in a number of procedural aspects of the method, arise from ill-considered procedural variations and lack of standardization. While validity threats are also found in several procedural aspects of the tool, they arise principally from pressures for convergence of predictions. This feature of the method, along with certain structural characteristics, is found to undermine critically its forecasting ability. Having discussed in some detail the nature of these difficulties, the paper closes with consideration of the reasons for the continued use of Delphi in spite of its shortcomings and with comments on alternative approaches.     

Hybrid Delphi: A methodology to facilitate contribution from experts in professional contexts

This work presents a new methodology based on three well-known qualitative techniques (Focus Group, Nominal Group Technique and Delphi method), with a view to harmonising their potentialities and reducing their limitations, through application in real contexts with experts who are professionals in their respective activities.The main contribution of this methodology is its joint consideration of the needs of the investigators and also of experts who act in professional contexts, in order to improve the effectiveness of preceding techniques in achieving the scientific and social objectives of the study.We have tested this methodological approach in three real cases, with experts holding different responsibilities in different companies and public organisations, and the results secured are highly satisfactory, due to both the quantity and quality of the proposals obtained, and the satisfaction exhibited by the experts taking part, with regard to the research methodology.     

Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies

A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.     

Convergence or divergence in cross-country growth?

In the traditional empirical convergence literature, a negative coefficient on initial income in a cross-country growth regression is interpreted as evidence of poor countries growing faster than richer ones. A key assumption in this work is that the relationship between initial income and income growth is linear. The linearity assumption is challenged in some new growth theories, and studies adopting an alternative (semi-parametric or nonlinear) econometric methodology provide support for a nonlinear specification. This paper finds evidence for nonlinear convergence. Using semi-parametric estimation we find that convergence occurs among countries with very low and very high initial incomes, suggesting that convergence clubs characterize the cross-country growth process. Our results provide further evidence for multiple-regime steady states.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.     

Statistical manipulation of delphi statements: Its success and effects on convergence and stability

This paper discusses the results of an experiment to determine if manipulation of statistical feedback of Delphi statements can significantly shift the responses of a fact-probing and/or a value-probing Delphi. This shift is viewed in terms of the degree of success in achieving a desired value. Also examined was whether fact- probing or value-probing Delphis were more susceptible to statistical manipulation. The effects of the statistical manipulation on the convergence and stability of the Delphis were also investigated.     

Income convergence in Japan: A Bayesian spatial Durbin model approach

With the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, economic disparities among both people and regions have arisen in Japan. Although developments in spatial econometrics have provided regional convergence studies with highly effective tools to explicitly consider spatial dependence and heterogeneity, there has as yet been no significant research on Japan's economic disparity using spatial econometrics. Moreover, most conventional regional convergence studies on Japan study the post-war high economic growth period before the economic bubble.Hence, the objective of this study is to analyze regional income disparities in Japan in the period after the bubble burst. We use the Bayesian spatial Durbin model, which can consider both spatial dependence and heterogeneity. The data used in this research are annual data collected at the municipality level during 1989-2007. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been conducted to analyze Japan's regional income disparities at the municipality level, though some research has been done at the prefecture level.First, the study suggests that σ-convergence does not hold whether or not spatial dependence is considered. Second, it analyzes regional income convergence by applying the simplified Bayesian spatial Durbin model to the β -convergence approach. The results show that β-convergence holds over 1990-2007.